S3P1 Writeup
This may be a little surprising to you all, it certainly was to me! Let's just say that after the first four games, I thought this would be what a wise man would call a "roflstomp"...
Overview
Every indication from the first four games was that this would be a Justinian stomp a.l.a. Mansa’s Opening Game Five Alternate Histories. However, the next sixteen games completely flipped the script, suggesting a wilder and more unpredictable setup in which the four corner leaders – going clockwise from the Northeast, Stalin, Justinian, Hammurabi, and Wang Kon – all were meaningful contenders in this map. In hindsight, this was not an unreasonable result. One could draw a line from the NW to the SE corner to divide the map into two equally sized triangles, the bottom/left one being occupied by the “Jedi” and the top/right one occupied by the “Sith”. Each faction had one leader (Asoka for the Jedi, Shaka for the Sith) who had drawn the short end of the stick, being forced into the center of the map, causing them to get caught in the crossfire and have little to no chance of winning. Furthermore, both Jedi and Sith were prone to infighting, the former due to religious differences, and the latter due to, well, their general nature; there was a reason Darth Bane eventually brought an end to the Sith Empire and created the Rule of Two.
Map Dynamics
Whichever faction came on top in these galactic showdowns
solely hinged on Asoka’s ability to resist the Death Star that was pointed towards him at all times. In fact, these replays established
Turn 200 as the key turning point of the game. I know only a Sith deals in absolutes, but this absolute statement was no exaggeration: in 19/20 games, if Asoka collapsed before Turn 200, Justin or Stalin won, while Wang Kon or Hammurabi instead won if Asoka was held on for more than 200 turns (or for the entire game). The one exception (Game 17), where Stalin came up victorious despite Asoka making it to Turn 241, proved the rule: the low peaceweights instead ganged up early on Hammurabi, therefore knocking out a Jedi by Turn 200 and paving the way for the Empire to strike back.
As this screenshot shows, the good guys were surprisingly prone to infighting.
If Asoka collapsed early, then his excellent land would enable his conqueror, always Stalin or Justinian, to keep up in tech with the Western leaders and win. Conversely, if Asoka held on for long enough, then the high peaceweights would be too advanced for the low peaceweights. To their credit, the Good leaders did not sit idly in these games, frequently attempting and succeeding in their own conquests. In particular, their trust in the Force brought them a weakling to pick on: Shaka. The Zulu king, who was not only in a central position but also was saddled with awful land, was the Sith counterpart to Asoka in this galaxy far, far away, and a Jedi won every single game in which Shaka was First To Die.
Occasionally, a high peaceweight leader was able to secure a Championship spot by making enough conquests of their own despite Asoka dying before Turn 200. Game 11, where Justin went on to secure dominion of the South while Wang Kon became Grandmaster of the North, was one such game. This was the closest a Jedi came to winning a game where Asoka died early; however, Wang Kon launched a premature attack before his tech lead was enough to overcome Justin's numbers, lost the war, and had to settle for second place.
Treachery and infighting played a major role in map dynamics. Both Jedi and Sith turned on each other over these games, to varying degrees of success. In Game 6, Stalin backstabbed Justinian while the Byzantine army was deep in Babylon and pulled off one of the greatest tactical maneuvers I have ever seen from an AI: he chased Justinian’s troops into the Soviet borders, then, with the help of the Babylonian forces, encircled his foe and wiped out his entire stack of doom, leaving the Byzantines defenseless and easy pickings. Meanwhile, in Game 18, untimely barbarian city spawns caused Wang Kon to have an unusually weak game. Hammurabi took advantage by conquering Korea for the earliest elimination of the set and snowballing from there, while Asoka did his job as the sacrificial lamb and held on for long enough. Hammurabi indeed took out an ally, but better he got that territory than Shaka or Stalin. Betrayal did backfire for both sides, however. In Game 5, Stalin backstabbed Justinian before the Byzantines could make any noticeable progress on Asoka, and although Justinian straight up crushed both of his enemies in the 2v1, it took long enough that the Hammurabi-Wang Kon duo had become tech runaways. For the Jedi, the mandate was this:
DO NOT, UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCES, ATTACK ASOKA.
In Game 11, for example, Hammurabi turned to the dark side and helped the Sith devour Asoka, before they then turned on the Babylonians.
Leader Dynamics
There were four viable leaders, which meant there were four ways these games could generally go. The most standard archtype was the Justinian/Stalin (or occasionally Shaka)/Asoka FTD game. The script was as such: Stalin and Justinian become brothers in the faith and overwhelm Asoka with sheer force of numbers, Justinian getting the emperor’s ransom, followed by his snowballing to victory while Stalin dutifully plays the role of enforcer. In these games, Shaka could sometimes kill Wang Kon early which gave him a chance to supplant Stalin as the enforcer (Games 3, 10).
Next, there were the Stalin/Shaka ticket games. The defining trait of this archtype was Stalin getting most of the spoils from the partition of Asoka rather than Justinian. With the Byzantine leader shunted into a corner, he did not fare well in these games, as he would eventually be on the receiving end of Stalin's Cossacks. This left Shaka to fill the void; two leaders had to advance, after all. Overall, the low peaceweight games generally exposed the military weaknesses of the high peaceweight leaders. The issue with the Jedi stemmed not necessarily from their innate fighting abilities, but more so from their preparedness for war. It was not uncommon for a leader to delay crucial military techs or to be trying to build every wonder under the sun while in the middle of an all-out war.
Among the high peaceweight games, the most common was the Wang Kon/Asoka/Shaka FTD one, which took place four times. These games saw Wang Kon mow down Shaka early with Hwatchas while Asoka held on long enough to use his excellent land to vault himself to the Championship round. If Asoka was able to stand strong for 200 turns, he could pull out ahead enough in tech to turn the tide against the Death Star. Unfortunately for the Indian leader, the neverending fighting would leave him so exhausted that Wang Kon, whose conquests were much easier and much less destructive, would leverage his Financial trait and amazing post-Iron Working land (especially with those gems resources) and become the victor. A common feature of these games was the weakness of Justinian's would-be enforcers, as Shaka and/or Stalin would over-expand, ignore culture for too long, and ruin their economies, leaving them too ineffective to be of any help to Justinian. These games also tended to see Sith infighting mar the Evil Empire's plans. Interestingly, Hammurabi flailed around in the Wang Kon games, suiciding into Wang Kon in Games 8 and 14, throwing away a shot at the Championship game in Game 19, and requiring the UN to save him in Game 20, where
Asoka was running him over. These games accounted for every single one of Asoka's Championship appearances, and he was only ever on pace to win in Game 19 until some Troll King shenanigans took place (more on that in the individual leader section).
The fourth and wackiest game archetype was the Hammurabi game. Although these three games were among the strangest of the set, I noticed two patterns: 1) a weak Wang Kon, whether it was due to poor expansion or his inability to handle Shaka, and 2) an Asoka who, while eventually dying, would hold out long enough that Hammurabi was too far ahead by the time the Death Star reached his orbit.
There were a couple of hybrid games; the previously highlighted Game 11 was one of them (Justin + WK), while Game 16 had characteristics of both a Hammurabi and a Stalin game, with the two unsurprisingly comprising the Championship ticket in that game.
Overall, the tech pace was average, as although this was not the most inspiring group of techers (I was especially surprised at how mediocre Justinian's econ was), the land overall was quite nice and there were significant conquest opportunities to aid snowballs. Religion played a significant role in these games, causing the Justinian-Asoka conflict to be an inevitability and also being the biggest sower of discord between the Jedi - there were games where all three practiced their own faiths. Religion was also a double-edged sword for Justinian, as it sometimes blinded him to the untrustworthiness of his fellow Sith.
Spaceship and Domination were essentially the only realistic ways a game could finish, with the Sith generally opting for Domination and the Jedi winning by Space. There were two Diplomatic finishes, but they were questionable. Stalin deserves some credit for his Game 16 win, as he had brute forced his way from a bad start to become the land and score leader, but Hammurabi was far enough ahead in tech that he would have won had Justinian not elected Stalin as World Leader. As far as Wang Kon’s Game 19 win went, well, stay tuned. There was one Cultural finish, but once again it was the exception that proves the rule, as it stemmed from the game stretching long enough that Hammurabi won without ever turning up the slider.
How Typical Was The Actual Game?
4/10. In many facets, the livestream game played like a standard Justinian game... except 1) Justin launched a foolish cross-map attack on Wang Kon, and 2) Stalin somehow got the vast majority of the spoils of war despite Justin doing most of the work. Stalin winning with Justin coming in 2nd place was an unusual result - a Stalin victory required a crippled Justinian - and furthermore, he actually earned his wins with good play, rather than being at the right place at the right time. Game 1 was very similar to the livestream game, being a 400+ turn slog with endless bloody warring, and it was a representation of how the Actual Game should have ended
Analyzing the individual leaders:
Justinian of Byzantium
Offensive Wars: 48
Defensive Wars: 21
Survival Rate: 80%
Finishes: 9 Wins, 2 Runner Ups (49 Points)
Kills: 20
Overall Score:
69
Justinian was essentially the Emperor in this setup, the most powerful and feared man on the map. However, I had a feeling that his insane start, where he won the first four games, was a tad flukey, as I observed some truly terrible play from the high peaceweights that greatly aided him in the first four games. The next sixteen games revealed two major flaws that prevented Justinian from completely distinguishing himself from the rest of the field. To start, he only had one pathway to victory: kill Asoka ASAP. Fail to do so, and he was out of contention. There really was no other way; a Jedi won the two games where Justin instead killed Stalin early (5, 14), as by doing so, he gave the good guys too much time to develop while also not having his best enforcer to do the dirty work (Shaka was not a great alternate).
Justin's other flaw was that he had a difficult time spreading his religion due to the cultural and religious nature of the three Jedi. This was the primary cause of his unexpected economic issues in this setup, as he could not rely on shrine income nearly as much as he normally does. His only consistent religious ally was Stalin, and everyone knows Stalin does not make for a good brother in the faith. Nevertheless, Justinian’s results speak for themselves here: as the most balanced leader with the best access to the softest target on the map, he was able to find the most success of all the leaders here. It also spoke volumes that Justinian was the only leader in this setup who could reliably survive if he did not get a top two spot, although his survival rate was deceiving – there were at least two games where he was on his way out when a victory triggered. Justin was most deservedly the strongest leader in this field, but this was not the easiest setup for the Byzantine leader.
Best Performance: Game 13, where Justinian brute forced his way through Asoka and snowballed from there.
Worst Performance: Justin foolishly tried to continue his conquest of Babylon in Game 6 while facing an existential threat from Stalin, and getting tactically outmaneuvered to his doom.
Sitting Bull Award:
Stalin of Russia
Offensive Wars: 55
Defensive Wars: 25
Survival Rate: 50%
Finishes: 4 Wins, 6 Runner Ups (32 Points)
Kills: 22
Overall Score:
54
The burning question for all readers: how much of a fraud was the Season Three Champion? So far, Stalin’s Opening Round victory was a major disappointment (albeit he had some bad barbarian luck), but what about his playoff win? With a 50% advancement rate and four mostly legitimately earned victories (even his semi-troll Diplo Game 16 was somewhat deserved), these results should quiet naysayers for the time being. Stalin’s path to victory was simple: take most of India, squeeze Justinian into his corner, and then turn on his master, becoming the Sith Emperor himself with Darth Shaka as his apprentice. Stalin may be a bit of a meme champion, but one cannot deny his military prowess.
Stalin did have a binary set of outcomes, however, dying in every single game he failed to advance. There were generally three scenarios in which Stalin could falter. First, he could just have a bad early game due to his infamous propensity to avoid culture, exacerbated by the removal of Deity starting techs. Admittedly, his culture avoidance was not always a bad thing, as it allowed him to zig while his cultural and religious competition zagged. Nevertheless, there was a concerning number of games where Stalin was irrelevant by Turn 100 because too many of his cities had lost control of their first ring tiles. Second, if Shaka knocked out Wang Kon early, Stalin could find himself in between two large leaders, eventually getting squeezed out of contention. The Rule of Two made itself apparent here, as Darth Shaka would overthrow Darth Stalin and replace the Soviet dictator as Justinian’s apprentice. Finally, Stalin was just screwed if the Jedi had a good game, as he would fall behind in tech and become a steppingstone in the quest to bring balance back to the Force. Although Stalin was only First To Die once, he came darn close to another one in Game 14, going out one turn after Shaka. Stalin's strengths and weaknesses were on full display in these games. Nevertheless, this set offers some evidence in favor of the legitimacy of Stalin’s Season Three run, one that leaves him a Pool One leader to this day (post S8).
Best Performance: Game 12 saw Stalin build up well, run over Asoka, and even get a strong economic performance to boot. The cherry on top: in a late game Defensive Pact triggered war, Stalin destroyed Shaka and Justinian at the same time, even though their borders surrounded his territory.
Worst Performance: His one First To Die flameout in Game 5 was extremely embarrassing, getting run over despite being on the right side of a 2v1.
A Million Deaths Is a Statistic Award:
From Stalin’s Game 6 victory.
What Happens When All Of Your Advisors Mysteriously Disappear Award:
So much for the glorious worker’s revolution.
Wang Kon of Korea
Offensive Wars: 18
Defensive Wars: 58
Survival Rate: 30%
Finishes: 4 Wins, 2 Runner Ups (24 Points)
Kills: 13
Overall Score:
37
Wang Kon was the light side counterpart to Justinian, down to the game-changing unique unit, and his presence was essential for the success of the high peaceweight leaders due to his above average aggression rating and his resilient fighting. Wang Kon’s success may seem surprising at first, as the Troll King was squeezed into a jungle-choked corner with Shaka as a neighbor in almost every game. Making matters worse was that Wang Kon lacked Copper, leaving him even more vulnerable to the Zulu hordes.
Stop building Chariots! You are Protective!
As it turned out, however, Wang Kon’s land was really, really good once he had chopped down the jungle and unlocked plantations. More importantly, Wang Kon could fight his way out of his corner utilizing his Protective trait and his Hwatchas, a criminally underrated unit perhaps due to the unwillingness of human players to play Protective leaders. (I am unsure if Wang Kon would be nearly as successful here without his unique unit.) Wang Kon did an excellent job maximizing his expansion opportunities, fitting cities into every nook and cranny he could find and quickly seizing the barbarian cities that frequently sprouted nearby.
Much hinged on the location of Wang Kon’s border cities. Sometimes, he would settle them on flat ground, a strategic error that made his empire much more difficult to defend, leading to his worst games. However, if he settled his border cities on hills, it was extremely difficult for Shaka to break through, even if the Koreans lacked metals. Time was on Wang Kon's side; the longer he held, the more likely it was that he would conquer the Zulus. From there, he could shine as the best economic leader in the field, Financial/Aliving his way to success. Admittedly, he needed some luck to break his way, namely for Asoka to also hold tall against the might of the Evil Empire. Although Wang Kon is most infamous for his trolling antics (especially in this season’s Opening Round), this set told the story of a leader capable of finding some success if he can corral his self-sabotaging tendencies – a big if, of course.
Best Performance: Game 20 was his best military and economic performance, and it was also one that did not rely as much on outside map factors – Wang Kon just earned it.
Worst Performance: While I can excuse his Game 18 elimination as stemming from ill-timed barb city spawns, he just absolutely wilted in Game 10 to Shaka.
Trollbi Wang Konobi Award: In true Troll King fashion, Wang Kon ended Asoka’s only shot at victory in Game 19 by being elected World Leader, even though everyone was only Pleased with him.
Hammurabi of Babylon
Offensive Wars: 21
Defensive Wars: 24
Survival Rate: 35%
Finishes: 3 Wins, 1 Runner Up (17 Points)
Kills: 5
Overall Score:
22
If Wang Kon was the master, Hammurabi was his most talented apprentice. The Troll King may have been too good of a teacher, however, as Hammurabi was an unstable Jedi, prone to turning to the dark side and ruining the best laid plans of the good guys. This set only strengthened my belief that Hammurabi might be the most poorly designed leader in Civ IV, both in human and in AI hands. One cannot expect a guy to do well when he beelines Radio before Rifling and yet has Spaceship as his default win con and traits that lend themselves towards aggression.
As implied above, all of Hammurabi’s victories saw him turn on one or more of his fellow Jedi at some point. Sometimes, like in Game 18, such betrayals were shrewd moves, as his friends were dead meat in those games and it was too dangerous to allow their lands to fall into the hands of the Evil Empire. In other cases, Ham’s culture-monging created border tensions that sparked his fall to the dark side in the late game, like in Game 7 when Hammurabi steamrolled Wang Kon after launching his spaceship. Hammurabi’s wins did feel lucky, however, and many of his backstabs completely backfired, whether it was from blowing up Asoka, his one safeguard from the Death Star (Game 11) or from Wang Kon showing him who the true master of trolling was (Games 8, 14), and there is a possibility that these results overstated his true strength. In most games, Ham was an afterthought due to his inability to be prepared for war when the Eastern leaders inevitably came calling, learning too late that it was not the time to get distracted by Biology and Sistine Chapel when Justinian had 150 Cataphracts chomping at his bits. Ham could also just be plain stupid with his military decisions, launching pointless cross map excursions against Stalin or Justinian. His one First To Die performance in Game 17 stemmed from such insanity. Altogether, this was a strange set from a strange leader.
Best Performance: Game 18 was probably the only game in which Hammurabi played like an intelligent Civ IV leader.
Worst Performance: Other than his flat out silly First To Die game, Ham was embarrassingly bad at teching and fighting in Game 1, still sporting a Medieval army in 1800 AD.
Troll Padawan Award: Everything about Game 5 was peak troll. First, Ham converted his master Wang Kon out of his self-founded religion. Later on, Ham used the UN to stop the Koreans from finishing off Shaka. Then, when Wang Kon declared what should have been a suicidal invasion of a much stronger Justinian, the Troll King still won because the bulk of Justinian’s army
WAS STUCK IN A ONE TILE CITY IN THE MIDDLE OF BABYLON, as Ham would not sign Open Borders. The cherry on top: Ham just won the game by doing nothing, as his culture-monging had given him three legendary cities on Turn 386, without using the slider at all. Learned well, have you, young Hammy!
Real Poverty Point Award:
Guess the Babylonians can drink that Antarctic oil…
Shaka of the Zulu
Offensive Wars: 55
Defensive Wars: 20
Survival Rate: 40%
Finishes: 0 Wins, 5 Runner Ups (10 Points)
Kills: 8
Overall Score:
18
Unfortunately for the fan favorite warmonger, he had the worst spot in the game and no easy targets. Of his three neighbors, Wang Kon was a Protective leader with good defensive terrain, Stalin was too strong, and Asoka had so many enemies that the Zulus could only get so much from the partition. Moreover, he had little space, the land he did have was rather dry, and his overall economic capabilities were not good enough to get him out of this pickle. Shaka’s best hope for the championship was to kill Wang Kon early and ride that to a Runner Up finish behind Justinian or Stalin, and this happened five times. Otherwise, he was either a steppingstone for Wang Kon or Stalin or an impediment to the Empire’s plans. That’s all she wrote – this was an unremarkable set from a normally interesting leader.
Best Performance: In Game 10, Shaka murdered the Troll King early and snowballed… into a 2nd place finish.
Worst Performance: Failing to take down a three city Wang Kon in Game 2.
Darth Troaul Award: In Game 12, Shaka dragged Justinian into a Defensive Pact triggered war against a runaway Stalin. This ended up pulling Justinian from clear cut 2nd place into a one city rump state, paving the way for a very undeserving Shaka championship appearance.
Asoka of India
Offensive Wars: 8
Defensive Wars: 59
Survival Rate: 20%
Finishes: 0 Wins, 4 Runner Ups (8 Points)
Kills: 1
Overall Score:
9
A major reason why I felt that this set overestimated Justinian’s strength in this matchup was that in Asoka's first four games, I witnessed some of the worst economic mismanagement I have ever seen from a high peaceweight leader. It was seriously so horrible that it did not feel repeatable – Asoka repeatedly crashed his economy and was lacking essential techs like The Wheel and Pottery on Turn 100. In one case (Game 1), he even lost a city to the barbarians. Conversely, a major part of Justinian's significant cool off afterwards was that Asoka finally relearned how to play Civ IV. In these games, he did a great job with expansion and was always one of the three strongest leaders after the early game. This was a double-edged sword for the Indians, however, as Asoka sometimes over-expanded, either crashing his economy or provoking conflict with a difficult to defend empire. He could have also been more tactful with his city placements. In particular, he liked to settle one of his border cities next to Justinian in a flood plain site on the Byzantine side of the river, a city that often instantly fell in Justinian’s initial attack. As it turns out, the high ground matters more than you think.
Unfortunately, even his good games were insurmountable from a diplomatic perspective, as Asoka faced invasion after invasion after invasion (his 59 defensive wars feels quite low here). There were multiple games where Asoka was able to hold off one leader, only for one or two other leaders to come crashing in, causing the house of cards to fall. Asoka had a tendency to over-focus on cultural pursuits, like his western Babylonian counterpart. If Asoka could hold on for 200 Turns, however, his outlook became much rosier. In such games, Asoka served as the perfect Padawan for Wang Kon, holding the bad guys at bay while the Koreans brought balance to the Force. In fact, Asoka was the Runner Up in every game Wang Kon won - unfortunately he was too exhausted from fighting to be anything more. Thus, he had the unique distinction of either dying or getting 2nd place, a unique set of binary results. Favoring a peaceful strategy yet also bordering three enemies (sometimes four if one of the Western leaders adopted a different religion) would be a tough task for any, and Asoka did about as well as he could given his position. He was a tragic yet heroic figure in these games, and this was a gutsy set from someone perhaps unfairly marked as a lesser Gandhi.
Best Performance: As I had mentioned, Asoka should have gotten his revenge and won Game 19, but the Master of Troll just had to Troll.
Worst Performance: Asoka was beyond useless as a meat shield in Game 9. That game in general was a doozy for the Jedi, who wasted time on pointless cross map excursions.
Taking The Rejection Of Possessions Too Seriously Award:
Enlightened Monty Award:
Conclusions
This was an incredibly fun set to run, one that rekindled my passion for AI Survivor. I admit, after the first four games, I could feel myself getting a tad burnt out, but then the rest of this chaotic set took place, and I was back to being hooked. I particularly enjoyed the good vs. bad guy dynamics of this map.
As a final thought, I really wonder how different the championship could have been had this been a high peaceweight game. Mansa sure could have used an ally in that game.
It was literally love at first sight – these two leaders started at Pleased relations and were thus hardwired to never betray each other. As time went on, some combination of religious bonds and mutual military struggles would further strengthen the bond between the two lovers. In fact: DE GAULLE AND BOUDICCA NEVER FOUGHT. I must emphasize this: there were nearly 300 wars over the course of these twenty games, and yet, not a single one was between De Gaulle and Boudicca, despite the two being neighbors. (Interestingly, De Gaulle murdered Boudicca in the Actual Game. Sorry to all the hopeless romantics.) This was a massive advantage for the two, as having a consistent and erstwhile ally majorly contributed to both leader's success in this map.
