Sullla's AI Survivor Season Three Alternate Histories

S3P2 Writeup

Probably the most shocking result I have ever gotten. This remains and will probably remain my all time favorite set ever.
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Overview

To use my best Sullla voice: Whaaaaaaaaaaaaaaat?!?!?! :run: :eek::run:

I mean, seriously. What?!? Gandhi winning the most games by far amidst this hostile field and with Mansa Musa as his only ally? Mansa looking like a massive disappointment here? De Gaulle being the 3rd best leader in this setup? Five Diplomatic finishes, all from the same two leaders? Minimal strong teching performances despite this star studded cast? The Actual Game turning out to be atypical? What the heck happened here?

Map Dynamics

This was not your typical 2v4 Good vs. Evil showdown. For starters, most of these leaders had builder-oriented personalities, and although they fought early and often, their overall approaches to these games were centered around internal development rather than external conquest. The only true warmonger in this field was Peter, and the results made it pretty clear that he was the odd man out here. The first tsar was a major wildcard in these games despite, or perhaps because of, his pathetic showing. Sometimes, he did his job softening up the high peaceweight duo for his fellow low peaceweights. Other times, he was so incompetent that he became a free source of territory for his evil brethren. Most of the time, however, Peter was a troll, launching meaningless and distracting wars against his supposed allies that only served to buy more precious time for the Mansa/Gandhi duo, helping them combine to win eleven games despite their awful diplomatic situation.

Of course, it did not hurt that Team Good was comprised of the best economic leader and the best pure culture-monger in Civilization IV, and the two also happened to have the best land. Mansa's land was rich and fertile, while Gandhi had a lot of room and was all but guaranteed a nice peninsula to his east that secured him 3-4 extra cities than normal. Shockingly, it was Gandhi who got the king’s ransom of the win-share. Thankfully, there is an easy explanation: Mansa’s central position, while lush, was a deathtrap in this field, giving all four of the bad guys easy access to him. In many games, Mansa would be so embroiled in war that all he could do was serve as a meat shield for the Indians. As Gandhi’s eight wins can attest, Mansa was a fantastic meat shield, but it came at a cost nonetheless: Mansa only won three games and was either dead or utterly broken in most of the other games. We do not often see Mansa lucky to win the Actual Game!

Interestingly, the biggest hurdles to high peaceweight success were Mansa and Gandhi themselves. The two frequently held different faiths, sparking conflicts between the two that derailed multiple of their games. Alternatively, the two could neglect their militaries and become easy pickings for the four vultures.

Leader Dynamics

These games had three storylines that determined how they went. First, there was Peter and Pacal. Pacal was playing this game on easy mode, as he was almost guaranteed a spot in the Championship Game due to his neighbor Peter’s incompetence and insanity. Peter was like Pacal’s little brother throwing a tantrum at the family board game, basically rage quitting and suiciding into the Mayans once he realized how irrelevant he was. Peter’s culture was also terrible, and there were some games where the Mayans were looking quite weak until Peter gifted them culturally crushed cities to immediately vault Pacal from straggler to game leader. Conversely, there were a couple of scenarios where Peter succeeded in becoming bane of Pacal’s presence. For example, in Game 5 Peter was the one to instigate an early 4v1 that led to Pacal’s one First To Die (his only elimination in the entire set):
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Now you know how it feels!

Pacal generally had to kill Peter somewhat early to have a chance at winning. If he failed to do so, either someone else would to become the game leader, or Pacal would be too slow to stop Gandhi.

The next storyline involved the deep enmity between De Gaulle and Mansa. These two fought in every single game, usually to the death. De Gaulle tended to get the better of these conflicts for a couple of reasons. First, Mansa was THE dogpile magnet, and there were many instances where Mansa’s army was all the way in, say, China, while De Gaulle had a fresh army about to break through the Mali borders:
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There is an imposter among us here…

Secondly, De Gaulle’s land had a TON of production, while Mansa’s land was on the flatter side, which helped the French overrun Mansa even when technologically behind:
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That’s enough hammers to give one Gaullestones

It was almost always a De Gaulle invasion that broke Mansa’s back, opening the floodgates. Upon killing Mansa, De Gaulle’s success hinged on if he could take out Gandhi early enough, if Gandhi was already too far ahead to be stopped, and then if he was large enough to tag team with Qin (more on that later). Mansa would only come out on top if he had an unusually strong opening, if De Gaulle had an unusually weak one, or if De Gaulle attacked Mansa too late for his massive numbers to overcome Mansa’s tech disparity. Less commonly, De Gaulle merely served to soften up Mansa for Pacal to take the spoils instead, a major factor in Pacal's best games.

Finally, there was the Qin v Gandhi conflict, one that often determined if the others even mattered. Qin and Gandhi’s rivalry began long before the first war horns blared out announcing their conflict, as they competed for the same expansions, particularly in the eastern peninsula. Gandhi usually won this race, as Qin's expansion was hampered by his isolated coastal start and his penchant to go after early wonders (amusingly, Qin built The Great Wall in all twenty games). In the rare instances where Qin outexpanded Gandhi, it was a disaster for Team Good. Like De Gaulle and Mansa, Gandhi and Qin fought in virtually every game, although Qin was a slightly more forgiving opponent than De Gaulle. If Gandhi was able to stalemate (or outright win), then his victory was all but assured.

How Typical Was the Actual Game?

4/10. In most games, Mansa's diplomatic situation was too much for him to overcome. A more typical game would see Pacal kill Peter, followed by the three remaining evil leaders to continuously deal hit-and-runs to Mansa until he collapsed or became permanently crippled. From there, two scenarios could take place: either the evil coalition took Gandhi down, with the victor generally being the largest leader no matter who the tech leader was (as we will soon discover), or Gandhi was just too far ahead to be stopped.

The three Mansa Musa victories were each unique in their own way, suggesting that any deviation from the script would likely tip the scales in favor of the Mali. In the livestream, Mansa and Pacal became religious allies (the two were mortal enemies in the AHs), giving Mansa a vital diplomatic shield while turning Gandhi into the dogpile magnet instead. Regarding his Alternate Histories wins: in Game 5, Mansa was by far the biggest beneficiary of the 4v1 of Pacal, while his Game 13 win was a strange game where everyone generally played poorly and Mansa just kind of won by default after conquering Russia. Meanwhile, his Game 15 win was the single most spectacular performance I have, and will have, ever witnessed by a leader in Civilization IV: he somehow mustered a victory despite getting attacked an unfathomable ELEVEN TIMES.

An Addendum: Diplomatic Victories

Diplomatic finishes generally stem from two scenarios:
  1. Coronating the obvious game winner 30 or so turns before that leader would have won anyway – this is the most common scenario.
  2. The infamous “troll” diplo where a much less deserving leader wins because he for whatever reason had better diplomacy with the non-ballot leaders while the non-ballot leaders were relevant enough to play kingmaker – we always remember these cases, but they occur far less frequently than we think.
Usually, Diplomatic victories are random results which may occur 1-2 times in an Alternate History. However, this particular set was a rare one in which a Diplomatic finish was an actual script for this map. There were five Diplomatic wins split between De Gaulle and Qin, and they were all achieved in exactly the same manner: De Gaulle and Qin would together take down some combination of Peter, Mansa, and Gandhi, form a deep bond from their military conquests, and then, when a tech runaway Pacal or Gandhi had built the UN, essentially infiltrate the UN and declare either De Gaulle or Qin (whoever had more pop) the winner. A reason why some dislike Diplomatic finishes: had the UN been disabled, the Runner Up finisher would have won at least three of those five Diplomatic finishes. Even the two “rightful” UN victories were questionable: in Game 1, it looked like De Gaulle’s much larger empire would help him catch up to Pacal in tech, but that was no guarantee, while in Game 10, Qin’s election as World Leader interrupted a down-to-the-wire race to Alpha Centauri between the French and the Chinese; both leaders had launched their spaceships on the same turn and we were robbed of an exciting down-to-the-wire space race.

However, with the exception of Game 12 where Gandhi was legitimately shafted out of a win (although it was partially his fault for beelining Mass Media before Rifling :hammer2:), every game with a UN finish saw the most deserving winner come up on top. De Gaulle and Qin are not the types of leaders who can just sit back and coast on Financial like Pacal. They had to go out and earn every scrap for themselves, without being born on third base, and while Pacal arrogantly sat back thinking that his Financial trait and a weak Peter suiciding into him was enough to win, De Gaulle and Qin put in all of the hard work taking down Mansa and/or Gandhi. They may have been too far behind in tech to win in any other way, but they still played the best and tried the hardest, and I could not conceive of any Diplomatic finish as a troll ending save for Game 12.

Religion had a minimal impact on diplomacy, as in most cases the Evil leaders all followed the same faith. If anything, religion was the primary source of division for Team Good. This was a violent world filled with stalemated wars which considerably down the tech pace despite this field of elite techers. Mansa’s economy was especially mediocre by his lofty standards, although his nearly 5.5 wars per game average had something to do with that. With Gandhi and Mansa winning eleven games, it was no wonder that Cultural finishes dominated, but I still found it crazy that there were as many Diplomatic finishes as Spaceship and Domination combined.

Onto the leader summaries:

Pacal II of the Maya
Offensive Wars: 37
Defensive Wars: 33
Survival Rate: 95%
Finishes: 4 Wins, 10 Runner Ups (40 Points)
Kills: 16
Overall Score: 56

I thought this would be a Pacal romp, with a few Mansa or Gandhi wins sprinkled here and there and the occasional random De Gaulle or Qin victory. However, this was only a romp as far as Runner Up finishes were concerned. Regarding actually winning, Pacal had to overcome three hurdles:
  1. Gandhi having a Gandhi game and winning
  2. Mansa having a Mansa game and winning
  3. De Gaulle or Qin getting large, building camaraderie, and then using the United Nations to pull the rug underneath Pacal.
Oftentimes, that was too much to overcome, and many of Pacal’s runner up finishes came despite him being ostensibly in a winning position. In the most nightmarish of cases, Pacal found himself completely shut out of the Championship despite being 2-3 techs away from building all of his spaceship parts.

Ultimately, the Mayan leader did little to dispel the notion that he is an otherwise mediocre leader blessed with a golden package. His overall inactivity cost him dearly in many cases and was the catalyst for the UN dynamics of this set. Those Diplomatic victories would not have taken place had Pacal not placed himself in the awkward circumstance of having a small empire yet also being the tech runaway. As a result, when he inevitably reached Mass Media first and built the UN, the election would be between him and a leader like De Gaulle with, say, 35-40% of the world population, while there was a third party, say Qin, with around 25-30% of the world population who thus held the kingmaking power. If Qin liked De Gaulle more, then De Gaulle could easily snatch a victory from right under Pacal’s nose.

All of this was avoidable if Pacal was able to muster any sort of military initiative. Yes, he had 16 kills, but a good chunk of those came from Peter having drank too much vodka before these games. Naturally, Pacal’s four wins came when he got his hands dirty and conquered some fools. Pacal is one of the game's very best economic leaders, but this set demonstrated why he does not quite belong in the absolute top tier of leaders. For a Financial leader with one of the best packages in the game, a dream diplomatic setup, and two easy neighbors to kill, Pacal should have performed far better than 56 points and four wins. There is a reason why he is a leader that we root against in every game.

Best Performance: Game 6 demonstrated Pacal’s sky high ceiling, as he actually leveraged his economic advantage to murder the rest of his competition.

Worst Performance: I can give a pass to his one death – there is nothing anyone can do about an early 4v1. More embarrassing was his Game 12, where Pacal failed to connect metals and was rendered irrelevant by an early Peter attack.

Hare Award: Pacal would have easily won Game 11 had he not taken a nap with his Mechs and Modern Armors and allowed a backwards Gandhi to win by Culture.

Democratic People’s Republic Of Wang Kon Award: De Gaulle was for once the tech runaway in Game 10… but Pacal baited the French into attacking him and devoting his entire production to military rather than research, allowing Qin to catch up in tech (with some help from the Internet). Then, when De Gaulle was about to run over Pacal, the Mayans used the UN to end De Gaulle’s conquest, keeping it in Mayan hands. De Gaulle then voted Qin as world leader on the same turn he launched his spaceship, and Pacal had completed a successful troll.

Gandhi of India
Offensive Wars: 13
Defensive Wars: 59
Survival Rate: 50%
Finishes: 8 Wins, 2 Runner Ups (44 Points)
Kills: 2
Overall Score: 46

For once, Gandhi was not a lamb to the slaughter in a playoff game! On the contrary, Gandhi was the map’s best performer, even if the score does not indicate this. To start, Mansa Musa should never have to pay for his drinks in Delhi ever again. Mansa had Skirmishers to shelter Team Good from early dogpiles, and his economic skills kept his tech going despite being mired in an endless brutal struggle for survival. Mansa’s resilience was instrumental in giving Gandhi those precious few extra turns that meant the difference between victory and destruction. Put literally any other leader in that central spot, and Gandhi would likely have been dead meat in this setup.

This is not to say Gandhi did not deserve his success. He executed his part of the bargain to near perfection and proved actually capable of defending himself if need be (unlike in the livestream). Normally, being in culture mode from Turn 0 is a weakness, but here, every turn mattered for Gandhi. Game 20, for example, saw Gandhi get three legendary cities just as Tanks from the Sino-French coalition army were outside of his 3rd city – one more turn, and Gandhi was done for. I noticed some utterly absurd cultural beelines: getting Meditation AND Polytheism, going for Philosophy before getting the crucial defensive Longbows, and which I had already mentioned, going for MASS MEDIA before RIFLING, a move that directly threw away a victory in Game 12. Despite this extreme display of culturephilia, Gandhi’s teching was excellent (perhaps aided by his strong expansion), and he was more than capable of helping with military matters; he was a better fighter than his 13 offensive wars may have suggested.

Unsurprisingly, Gandhi either won, almost won (In addition to Game 12, Gandhi’s Game 18 Runner Up finish came when he uncharacteristically never touched the cultural slider when he would have won otherwise), or died. There were three reasons Gandhi could falter. First, he and Mansa could come to blows due to religious differences, leaving him completely isolated and a sitting duck. This was not necessarily a death knell for Gandhi’s chances, as there were two games where the two fought and Gandhi still won, one of them being the oddball Game 2 where Indira took the helm (Gandhi actually attacked early in that game). Nevertheless, fighting his only ally was not good for his prospects. Second, Mansa could fall apart too quickly, meaning that Gandhi was next on the chopping block – this was the most common cause of Gandhi’s failures. Finally, Gandhi could be his own worst enemy at times. He was prone to crashing his economy if he combined over-expansion with the neglection of essential development techs like Wheel and Pottery (Game 13). I noticed Gandhi quite effectively utilized a failgold economy (for those unfamiliar, this means to use gold from incomplete wonder builds to fuel research – a common technique on higher difficulties) in these games, but sometimes that was not enough and he fell too far behind to compete. Gandhi could also fail to properly defend himself, like in Game 15 where he died to a cross-map invasion from De Gaulle; this was how he failed in the Actual Game. Nonetheless, this set showed why Gandhi is an elite culture-monger, and I kind of wish that we saw this Gandhi in the livestream game.

Best Performance: Game 14 was a well-executed Cultural victory, especially coming from a non-Financial leader.

Worst Performance: Crashing his economy in Game 13, failing to expand, and dying one turn before Mansa’s victory triggered. Dishonorable mention to Game 15, for reasons already mentioned.

Tortoise Award: With some help from Pacal’s inactivity, Gandhi won a Culture victory in Game 11 without ever turning up the Culture slider.

No More Mr. Nice Guy Award: Look at his Game 2 statline! At first glance, his zero kills may have made one think that Gandhi should stick to his pacifist ways, but he should have had at least two kills in that game. His first one was stolen when Peter troll sniped Qin in a last-minute vulture of a dying civ, and Gandhi was in the process of running over De Gaulle and Peter at the same time when he hit three legendary cities.

Why You Should Never Give The Nice Guy A Chance Award:
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De Gaulle of France
Offensive Wars: 60
Defensive Wars: 20
Survival Rate: 90%
Finishes: 3 Wins, 5 Runner Ups (25 Points)
Kills: 17
Overall Score: 42

Qin Shi Huang of China

Offensive Wars: 54
Defensive Wars: 19
Survival Rate: 80%
Finishes: 2 Wins, 3 Runner Ups (16 Points)
Kills: 4
Overall Score: 20

Although there was a decent score disparity between these two leaders, I chose to pair them here as they were for all intents and purposes on the same team. Even outside of map dynamics, these two leaders share many similarities. Both leaders have excellent starting techs and like-minded personalities, both being Industrious low peaceweight backstabbers who prefer more builder-focused strategies. Qin has the blah Protective while De Gaulle has the decent Charismatic as a second trait, but Qin compensates with better uniques. Regarding the map, both leaders had Fishing starts and at least one dogpile candidate as a neighbor. These two were not strange bedfellows in these replays – despite being conniving backstabbers situated on the opposite corners of the map, their objectives and pathways to victory were in perfect tandem with each other. All of their wins followed the exact same pattern – run over one or more of their neighbors, wait for Pacal or Gandhi to build the UN, and then rig the UN in their favor. Yet another sign of how similar the two were: they had virtually identical offensive to defensive war ratios of 3:1. At the very least, one leader could get into the championship game by killing one of their neighbors and leveraging that into a Runner Up finish. Their strategies reminded me of a human Deity player – they tended to break out with Cuirassiers (De Gaulle’s two move Musketeers were quite useful with this), before splitting enough territory to win through the UN. Their failures stemmed from the following: taking too long to conquer, being unable to coordinate dogpiles, and eventually getting wrecked in the late game by a much more advanced enemy.

The main reason why De Gaulle’s score was so much better: his land and neighbor situation. While Qin had to contend with Pacal and the hyper-cultural Gandhi as neighbors (and was First To Die a couple of times as a result), De Gaulle had the hapless Peter and the more vulnerable Mansa, the latter of whom was a more consistent dogpile magnet than Gandhi. Moreover, De Gaulle’s land was just better both from a quality and quantity perspective. Qin either needed to conquer Gandhi in due time or effectively use a Great Lighthouse-Colossus economy in order to have a chance. Switch Qin and De Gaulle’s starting positions, and their results would likely be flip-flopped. Altogether, this was a better performance from the two than I was expecting, and perhaps the community especially underestimates De Gaulle. The French leader has flailed around more often than not, but this season did demonstrate that he can be a viable leader.

Best Performances: Games 1 and 10, respectively, as those were the games where the two would have had a chance to win without the UN.

Worst Performances: De Gaulle’s expansion was moribund in both the games he died, and Qin tried to backstab Pacal in Game 18, only for it to completely backfire in his face. Qin also got run over by GANDHI in Game 2.

Civil Disobedience Award: In Game 14, De Gaulle (and Pacal, and the United Nations) were about to finish off Mansa… when his last city became ensconced in Gandhi’s borders. Since Gandhi refused to sign Open Borders, De Gaulle was stuck in a forever war with another opponent, which gave the Indians all the security they needed.

City Wok Award:
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Gotta keep out those darn 北京人.

Mansa Musa of Mali
Offensive Wars: 26
Defensive Wars: 93 :faint:
Survival Rate: 40%
Finishes: 3 Wins, 0 Runner Ups (15 Points)
Kills: 4
Overall Score: 19

Poor, poor Mansa. 93 defensive wars says it all. His games were painful to watch, as the Malinese leader would frequently explode out into what appeared to be a dominant position, until the first of a relentless barrage of attacks took place, taking down the titan through death by a thousand cuts. In every game, Mansa was teetering on the knife’s edge, never sure if the latest invasion would cause the whole moneybags machine to collapse. Even if he withstood these invasions, he was more often than not a husk of himself, failing to advance in more than half of the games he survived.

With that said, it was still clear why Mansa is one of the best leaders in AI Survivor. I am unsure that any other leader is capable of winning 3/20 games while being attacked 93 times. In fact, they would be lucky to win one game. Mansa only had one easy game, that being Game 5 where Pacal uncharacteristically died early. In the other 19 games, Mansa had one major issue: this was not the right field for culture-monging, not in this hostile field and especially not with Gandhi in the game. Mansa could have done better had he played more like he did in his opening round game, rather than trying to build missionaries while being in a 3v1 and still missing out on the cultural milestones. When Mansa did exhibit aggression, it was not always smart – he attacked Gandhi more often than I thought he would, and taking out his only potential ally tended to backfire on him. At the end of the day, Mansa’s central position proved to be a deathtrap, and he was incredibly lucky to have befriended Pacal in the real game to secure a Championship Game spot.

Best Performance: In Game 15, when he faced 11 invasions, Mansa had to contend with a 3v1 on five separate occasions. Also:
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Worst Performance: Game 1 was perhaps the one game where Mansa looked extremely pedestrian, and was deservedly First To Die.

Living Long Enough To Become The Villain Award:
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Peter of Russia
Offensive Wars: 40
Defensive Wars: 6
Survival Rate: 25%
Finishes: 0 Wins, 0 Runner Ups (0 Points)
Kills: 1
Overall Score: 1

I have read Alternate Histories sets where leaders scored zero points, where leaders died in all twenty games, and where leaders squandered starting positions that would make a human Deity player jump in joy. Yet, there is a valid argument that this may be the single worst Alternate Histories performance ever. To start, look at the war counter. Peter was attacked only six times - I do not think I have ever seen a defensive war count that low - yet he died in three quarters of the replays, was the overwhelming favorite for First To Die despite being in the peaceweight majority, never sniffed a top two spot, and would have laid a complete egg had he not somehow sniped what should have been Gandhi’s kill in Game 2. This was an utterly inexcusable performance for a warmonger with a dream diplomatic setup and golden dogpile opportunities.

There were two major problems with Peter here. First, in this field, he might as well have been Ragnar or Genghis Khan, as he was the only pure warmonger and by far the worst economic leader in this field. Most games saw him launch random attacks without rhyme or reason (often with only 5-6 cities), get absorbed by one of his neighbors, or derail the evil gameplan with troll war declarations. The second issue, and perhaps a mitigating factor here: Peter had BY FAR the worst land. He had a coastal capital without coastal resources, little room to expand (exacerbated by his poor cultural output), and lots of jungle with land that was not good enough to compensate post-Iron Working. His land was so bad (especially relative to his rivals), I think Huayna Capac would have struggled in his position. With that said, although there is some debate over if Peter is an underestimated or overrated leader due to him sometimes overperforming in other Alternate Histories sets, I personally see him perfectly rated as a mediocrity.

Best Performance: Surely, you must be joking…

Worst Performance: Game 1, where his expansion was so awful that De Gaulle was able to jam border cities right next to Moscow.

Temujin Award:
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Yes, Peter now has just three cities on T73.

Conclusions
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This was yet another fascinating set, full of twists and turns, some shocking results, and some of the most exciting individual games I had the pleasure of watching. Some people enjoy seeing pure dominance, while others like to see evenly matched Alternate History sets – and I have personally find my favorite sets to be the ones with clashes to the death between Good and Evil, like in both this and the first playoff game. Some final food for thought: maybe we underestimate high peaceweights a little bit? This was not the first set in this season where the high peaceweights were able to overcome long odds to find success. Do not be surprised when the goodie two shoes of Civ IV eventually get their time to shine.
 
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Alright, kinda makes more sense that the read I posted.
I knew Peter would be bad (bad AI + worst start on the map), I didn't think he'd be 55% FTD bad.
A bit surprised at Qin's only 4 kills too.

About the Diplomatic Victory Condition, I've expressed myself on the subject a lot, but to recap my stance:
  • I disable it in my runs because I'm interested in measuring up AI performance, and the AI is not programmed to use the UN (if it is, the code is buggy enough to be undistinguishable from random dice rolls).
    Basically, the UN just adds random noise to the measurements.
    • An AI won't call the vote when it can win (or delay it for ages, sometimes until too late)
    • It will call the vote when it can't win
    • It won't adapt its diplomacy to an attempt at winning
    • Votes and calls for resolutions are nonsensical (vote "No" to end a war it's losing badly, etc...)
  • I call it the "troll winning condition" in reference to AI Survivor Picking Contest
    Even in games (like this one, apparently) when diplo is more prevalent, it's never the most likely winning condition
  • The UN should definitely remain enabled for AI Survivor
    It may be bad (imo) for AI ranking purposes, but AI Survivor is first and foremost a show, and UN drama is an integral part of the show.
 
A bit surprised at Qin's only 4 kills too.
Gandhi was a much, much tougher foe than expected, and often had more cities than Qin. Also, Qin was dead last in turn order which hurt a bit in claiming dogpile kills.
About the Diplomatic Victory Condition, I've expressed myself on the subject a lot, but to recap my stance:
  • I disable it in my runs because I'm interested in measuring up AI performance, and the AI is not programmed to use the UN (if it is, the code is buggy enough to be undistinguishable from random dice rolls).
    Basically, the UN just adds random noise to the measurements.
    • An AI won't call the vote when it can win (or delay it for ages, sometimes until too late)
    • It will call the vote when it can't win
    • It won't adapt its diplomacy to an attempt at winning
    • Votes and calls for resolutions are nonsensical (vote "No" to end a war it's losing badly, etc...)
  • I call it the "troll winning condition" in reference to AI Survivor Picking Contest
    Even in games (like this one, apparently) when diplo is more prevalent, it's never the most likely winning condition
  • The UN should definitely remain enabled for AI Survivor
    It may be bad (imo) for AI ranking purposes, but AI Survivor is first and foremost a show, and UN drama is an integral part of the show.
All reasonable and I believe the UN and Diplo victory definitely belong in AI Survivor, another argument in favor is that it can save us 30-50 turns of uninteresting next turning in some scenarios
 
I figured Mansa had to be the win with 11 defensive wars, but I would've bet on him being the 40% winner (I didn't get around to analyzing any of the other result lines - a lack of links to the original game materials certainly didn't help with that, by the way!) Definitely an unusual result.

Diplo should 100% remain enabled for AI Survivor because it's a core part of the game of Civ 4 (unlike the AP which was tacked on in an expansion) and more often than not makes things more interesting and/or entertaining when it does come into play.
 
Speeding these up a bit as I want to finish S3 before 2025 at least.

Playoff 3 teaser! Recall in the actual game that JC and KK, two leaders with last names that have become synonymous with king, had partitioned the globe for themselves and only THEN turning on each other like the rabid dogs they are, Caesar ultimately winning the space race.

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Here we have yet another one of these "Big Three" types of sets. The question is, for those of you who followed 2010s NBA, which group constituted the Miami Heat Big Three and which one constituted the Brooklyn Nets "big three"?
 
I'll guess that this one played out largely along peaceweight lines. The big question is who's the odd one out? The fact that only one leader had a high kill total suggests that it's one of the two who did well in the actual championship... so I'll guess that JC flounders without the extra starting techs. That leaves Kublai to do much of the heavy lifting militarily, although he struggles to actually outpace Hannibal doing Financial things or Louis doing culture.

Hannibal is Financial, has good room to grow militarily, and doesn't border three warmongers, so I like his odds better than Louis's. Of the bottom three, JC seems pretty likely to be the one with the kills, while Rams probably squeezed out two wins and Burger King did not much of anything.

Final answer: Hannibal, Kublai Khan, Louis XIV, Julius Caesar, Ramesses II, Charlemagne
 
Hannibal borders both marked men, so that would indeed make him the de facto favourite. He has an exposed central position, so you'd expect things to go very wrong for him sometimes though.
That kinda fits the first entry.

Louis has a central position and borders none of the high peaceweights: he seems the least likely to do well among the low peaceweights.
Kublai's start I've already discussed: lots of room + no commerce makes for a dangerous proposition early game.
And Caesar's, according to Keler's data, wasn't that good either.

  1. Hannibal
  2. JC
  3. Kublai
  4. Louis
  5. Ramesses
  6. Charlie
(but honestly, 2 & 3 could be reversed).
 
Hanni - JC - Louis - Kublai - Rammy - Charly

Hanni is extremely close to Rammy, who has great land but is a clear PW outcast, along with Charly, and Charly. Going for Charly would probably be more difficult. Nonetheless this is a great advantage for him. Some FTD are on the cards due to a central start and Rammy having close horses. After the early game Financial carries him to win most of the games.

JC probably is the one going around the map killing people.

For the third good AI I am unsure. Louis has much better Land than KK, but is way more threatened. Basically Louis has to survive and beat Hanni, and KK has to beat Louis and then beat Hanni.

IMHO, the fourth having nine kills indcates that this is Kublai and Louis is third.

Rammy can probably get the odd culture victory, making him fifth.

Edit: spelling
 
S3P3 is ready! @Eauxps I. Fourgott had an excellent read of the map (and the overall capabilities of these leaders), and this was a tough one that certainly surprised me a lot! Perhaps there is merit in the belief that ALL of the French leaders are quite underrated...

Also, thank you Eauxps, I foolishly completely forgot to link Sullla's writeups, which I will do in all the other posts. Whoops!

Anyways, here it is!

S3P3 Writeup

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Overview

Although I expected the removal of Deity starting techs to bring Julius Caesar down a peg, I was not expecting it to completely transform his chicken salad into chicken feces. In these Alternate Histories, the Roman dictator was a complete buffoon who never came close to backdooring into the Championship game, let alone winning. What in Jupiter's name happened to one of AI Survivor’s OG titans, perhaps one of the most significant men in all of Western civilization, and possessor of one of the most feared unique units in Civilization IV?

What happened was 1) the removal of Deity techs exposed how bad Caesar's land was, and 2) Caesar was an odd man out in this field. Of his five rivals, four were major culture pumpers while the fifth, Hannibal, had the Financial trait and was no slouch at border expansion himself. All he could lean on was his Praetorians, but that was of little help for reasons that will be discussed in the individual leader section.

Instead, this ended up being another “Big Three” set, with the trio of Louis, Kublai Khan, and Hannibal being the alpha males who bullied and pantsed the three beta male trio of Ramesses, the Burger King, and the aforementioned Caesar. Some stats to highlight this disparity:
  1. The Big Three combined for 18 wins, with the two outliers (both Ramesses victories) stemming from Louis and Kublai dragging each other down with early warring.
  2. The Big Three all survived the majority of these replays; the three stooges never exceeded a 35% survival rate.
  3. 15/20 games saw two members of the Big Three occupy the top two spots; 19/20 saw at least one of the Big Three advance to the Championship Round.
In this crime syndicate, Louis was the man whose ring everybody else had to kiss. Blessed with the best land, the easiest access to the lowest runt (Caesar), and the fastest win condition, Louis lived up to his Sun King nickname with every game revolving around his orbit. If Louis was Don Eladio, Kublai Khan was Hector Salamanca. The Yuan emperor was an absolute brute on this map, netting himself a staggering 27 kills (albeit some of them were sniped from more deserving leaders), and taking advantage of his soft Egyptian target to his east. In game after game after game, KK smacked around Ramesses, encroached on his land, stole his lunch money, slept with his sister-wife, and then buried the pharaoh alive under a tomb and condemned him to be eaten alive by giant beetles for all of eternity. Following his dismemberment of the Egyptians, KK generally served as the mafia enforcer, although once in a while he could launch a coup and establish himself as the big boss.

Meanwhile, even though Hannibal ostensibly lacked much in the way of quality land, his Gus Fring-like patience and ambition more than made up for it, as he continuously broke out of his initial funk and quietly leveraged his economic skills into a top two finish. Moreover, he had easy access to two of the three wannabes of the map and was overall sound in his decision making, more so than his two mafia counterparts. Hannibal in particular was much better at sensing when he was not a major player, thus focusing instead on survival and managing to backdoor second place a few times - you have to make it to the Championship Game to win after all.

There was an intriguing rock-paper-scissors dynamic amongst the Big Three. Naturally there were exceptions, but as a general rule of thumb, Louis would culturally overwhelm the Carthaginians, Hannibal would out-tech the Mongolians, while Kublai would lay the wrath of Khan unto the French.

In a world where space was limited, the Big Three excelled the most at the land-grabbing stage, whether it was from sheer settling, stretching their culture, or getting first dibs on barbarian cities. Conversely, the other three were much worse at expansion, whether it was due to getting hung up on mediocre wonders (Ramesses), entering war mode prematurely (Caesar, Burger King), being saddled with terrible land (JC, BK who had drawn the crappy jungle spot), or struggling with the barbarians (BK, Ram). Furthermore, each of the three losers had at least one crippling flaw. Caesar's land had no commerce and the Roman leader completely neglected his culture; Charlie was just too slow of a starter to ever be relevant in these games; Ramesses’ military incompetence was astoundingly apparent in these games and his land, while rich and fertile, was severely lacking in production.

However, there was a boom-or-bust nature among the Big Three, with each member experiencing the entire gamut of possible results. Their victories could be quick romps or hard-fought wins, their 2nd place finishes could be near-wins or lucky backdoor games, and their eliminations could be embarrassing early exits or heartbreaking last-minute collapses. The Jekyll-and-Hyde nature of the Big Three was also apparent in the general map dynamics, as it felt like every game was either a laugher (Games 10, 14, 18) or a brutal slogfest (Games 13, 16, 20). Oftentimes, whichever leaders made it to the finish line depended on who was able to get on the right side of dogpiles. One thing remained constant: the relatively low number of wars. Despite this aggressive bunch of leaders, the war counter was quite low as most wars were fought to the death, whether it was a vicious dogpile, a protracted stalemate, or a modernized leader Thanos snapping some poor Medieval sap out of the realm of existence. The "relevant" war counter was even lower, as there was quite a bit of last minute vulturing of dying civs to artificially tick up the war counter.

Although the Big Three clearly dominated the Winner and Runner Up categories, First To Die turned out to be quite unpredictable. Although the community favorites of Louis and Ramesses were reasonable picks, especially the latter, every leader was First To Die at least once, and all save for Kublai Khan got that distinction multiple times. As it turned out, dogpiles were hard to predict, and a few games saw a leader collapse from a dominating position to be First To Die after getting ganged up on. Whichever victory condition took place was also a tossup, dependent on who the winning leader was and if he chose to leverage his advantage into world domination or a more peaceful conclusion. Unsurprisingly, Louis leaned towards Cultural wins, Hannibal towards Space, and Kublai towards Domination. Unlike Playoff Two, where the UN was one of the defining facets of the map, these games never came close to a Diplomatic finish. The religions were dominated by Ramesses, Charlie, and (to a lesser extent) Louis, but religion was of little diplomatic relevance; Ramesses was by far the most successful at spreading his religion, and we can see how much it helped him. Due to the mix of aggressive and culturally inclined leaders, there were far too many border tensions for any stable alliances to form.

How Typical Was the Actual Game?

0/10. I had a hunch that the livestream game was an unlikely result, as both of the advancing leaders had some insane goodie hut luck, Julius Caesar popping Mysticism before morphing into Constantine, and Kublai Khan popping an early Writing to enhance his already formidable land-grabbing abilities. With Louis sandwiched between the two lucky bastards of the map, this was bad news for him and ultimately the rest of the world. However, looking at these results, I am unsure if Caesar has many prospects in this setup even with Deity starting techs.

Analyzing each leader’s individual performance:

Louis XIV of France
Offensive Wars: 33
Defensive Wars: 43
Survival Rate: 70%
Finishes: 10 Wins, 2 Runner Ups (54 Points)
Kills: 11
Overall Score: 65

The major reason why Louis was clearly the top leader in this setup was because he was the only leader capable of still winning if things went sideways for him, as he always had the cultural ticking-time bomb to lean on. He was the most well-rounded of the Big Three, excelling at all phases of the game (expansion, military, economy); Kublai (economy) and Hannibal (expansion) were less consistent. As I had mentioned, Louis benefitted from having both the best land and the weakest neighbor. In many games his victory was already assured by Turn 100, having expanded to a double-digit city count while pumping out oodles of culture to squeeze his rivals. It spoke volumes that his most dominant showings were not his Cultural finishes, but actually his three pre-T300 Domination wins. He had many pathways to victory: run over either Hannibal or Caesar and snowball, sit back and allow everyone else to fight while he cultured or teched away, build up and run over one of his neighbors at a later stage of the game, or even turtle up with his tail tucked in yet still pull a Cultural rabbit out of his hat.

The biggest roadblock for Louis was his Southern neighbor, Kublai Khan. Every single game in which Louis failed to advance had one thing in common: the French were unable to effectively handle the Mongolian threat, either getting bogged down or getting run over early. The Sun King did run over Kublai multiple times, but this almost always came when he was technologically advanced enough to do so. Louis was lucky that despite his central position, he only had to deal with one dangerous neighbor – as the livestream showed, a stronger Caesar would not have been good news for the French. This set demonstrated what many already know about Louis: he is a quintessential boom-or-bust leader who can be his own worst enemy at times. At least he redeemed himself after his disappointing Opening Round Alternate Histories. Despite his warts, Louis clearly established himself as a leader to always watch in these games.

Best Performance: His shockingly strong Game 10 victory easily takes the cake here.

Worst Performance: Going way, WAY too crazy with expansion in Game 18, provoking a 3v1 that led to his early demise.

Wang Kon Burger King Minority Shareholder Award:
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All of Gaul is Divided Into Three Parts Award:
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Kublai Khan of Mongolia
Offensive Wars: 53
Defensive Wars: 23
Survival Rate: 80%
Finishes: 3 Wins, 7 Runner Ups (29 Points)
Kills: 27
Overall Score: 56

Kublai may have scored the 2nd most points in this set, but he was clearly the 3rd cog in this Big Three. With that said, Kublai showed why he is regarded as one of the most formidable warmongers in Civ IV. His Creative trait and Hunting/Wheel starting techs nullified the two biggest weaknesses that most warmongers have (early culture and early economy), and he excelled at expansion and warfare. Kublai was a kingmaker here; games swung depending on who he chose to attack, and he was always a strong contender to secure a spot in the Championship game, especially if he took advantage of his tasty Egyptian snack to the east. Interestingly, killing Ramesses was the safe choice, one that greatly boosted his chances of advancing but not winning. As a matter of fact, Kublai never won a single game where he killed Rammy early. Two of Kublai’s three wins actually saw him kill Louis early instead, as by doing so he 1) got rid of his biggest roadblock to victory, 2) had a much better 2nd empire to snowball off of, and 3) had much better post-conquest targets. The one game where he did not kill Louis yet still won (Game 20) was a major slog where everybody got stuck in wars, and Kublai was able to crawl to space by getting the most territory for himself (he somehow did not conquer anybody in that game). Attacking Louis early was risky however, as shown by his one First To Die performance in Game 2.

With all that said, there was a reason why nearly half of Kublai’s points came from kills. Being completely devoted to military matters had its tradeoffs: Kublai was a subpar economic leader. There were a multitude of games where Kublai had conquered an entire hemisphere, only to falter because he had fallen too far behind in tech or because it was too late to stop Louis from getting three legendary cities. Kublai also had a lot of really dumb war declarations, frequently launching suicidal attacks against a tech runaway or cross-map wars that yield little gain. In particular, there were a couple of games where he had a chance to stop Louis from winning, only to sic his entire army against Charlie on the opposite corner of the map and then have to give away those culturally overwhelmed conquests to the French. Kublai is deserving of his reputation as one of AI Survivor’s top leaders, but his lack of economic heft is a significant weakness.

Something to note is that Kublai's survival rate is EXTREMELY deceiving. When accounting for the games where he was actively dying when the game ended, his “true” survival rate plummets to 55%.

Best Performance: His incredible Turn 267 victory in Game 18 takes the cake here, and this date undersold how amazing he played. Had Charlie not sniped a couple of cities from Kublai, he could have won before Turn 250.

Worst Performance: Somehow getting run over by Ramesses in Game 2.

Mongolia Delenda Est Award:
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Hannibal of Carthage
Offensive Wars: 23
Defensive Wars: 38
Survival Rate: 65%
Finishes: 5 Wins, 7 Runner Ups (39 Points)
Kills: 11
Overall Score: 50

While Kublai Khan supplied the brawn to the Big Three mafia, Hannibal was the brains of the operation. Performance wise, the Carthaginian leader was more boom-or-bust, either absolutely dominating or being a pathetic 5-6 city weakling without much in between. Do not be fooled by his seven second place finishes – many of them were backdoor finishes where Hannibal was at the bottom of the scoreboard for the entire game until a combination of other leaders dying and him still being a competent techer gave him enough score to sneak into the Championship game.

Hannibal had three hurdles he had to overcome to succeed. First was that he was commonly squeezed on culture, all three of his neighbors being cultural and/or religious leaders. Second was his land, which was coated in jungle (at least it was good after chops). His capital was also situated one tile away from the coast, preventing Hannibal from playing the water economy game that he has proven adept at in the past. Finally, partially due to the first factor, Hannibal was vulnerable to dogpiles that led to three games where he was the first leader eliminated. The Carthaginians were especially vulnerable to inopportune barb city spawns, and there were games where Hannibal was rendered irrelevant after only being able to expand to 5-6 cities.

In return, three factors kept the Carthaginians afloat in the short-term, so that they could scale in the long-term. First was his Financial boosted double Ivory capital, which kept his economy in good shape while giving him enough hammers to aid his landgrab. Indeed, Hannibal’s best games saw him overcome his neighbor situation and go crazy with settling, even claiming Northern territory between the Salad Man and the Burger King. Secondly, Hannibal built and utilized the Pyramids extremely well in many games, either adopting an early Representation to kickstart his economy or an early Police State to fuel a conquest. Ramesses certainly could have taken some pointers about which wonders to prioritize. Finally, like in his Opening Round, Hannibal had a plethora of good military targets and Elephants to murder them with. Hannibal’s performance in this set was much like many of his other AI Survivor games: it seems that he either has crazy games that garner him the “Chadnibal” moniker, or he has some stinkers that make everyone wonder if he is the most overrated leader in the game. In truth, all this balances out to make Hannibal an above average leader for AI Survivor purposes.

Best Performance: Solo-killing Rammy early in Game 14 before completely running away with the game, winning an incredible T282 Spaceship victory.

Worst Performance: All three of Hannibal’s First To Die eliminations followed the same pattern: he barely expanded, launched a failed war against one of his neighbors, and was quickly delended into the bottom of the Mediterranean sea.

Fingernails Scratching A Chalkboard Award:
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You have no idea how much I wanted to switch some resources in the WorldBuilder before running these games.

Charlemagne of the Holy Roman Empire
Offensive Wars: 32
Defensive Wars: 28
Survival Rate: 35%
Finishes: 0 Wins, 4 Runner Ups (8 Points)
Kills: 9
Overall Score: 17

There is a steep drop-off after the Big Three, but the Burger King ultimately proved to be the least bad of the remaining leaders. Charlie is generally regarded as the worst leader in the game in human hands due to his bottom tier trait and starting tech pairing, and it showed in this set with Deity starting techs removed. Charlie's early game was always too slow to ever contend for a victory, and his two hopes for a Championship spot was to 1) be lucky enough to sneak into the championship off by benefitting from a dogpile of Caesar or Hannibal, or 2) for Kublai Khan on the opposite corner to take out everyone else.

Charlie is a decent leader at worst, but here, he was not able to execute his religious strategy due to his slow start and lack of rivers to spread his religion. Although he and Ramesses almost always founded two of the first three religions, the Egyptians would often utilize the boost from Stonehenge and Obelisks to net extremely early shrines and thus a virtual monopoly on the religious race. Too often, Charlie would find himself a diplomatic pariah, being the only practitioner of his religion alongside his relatively high peaceweight, and there were games where it seemed he would have been able to muster something when a Kublai or a Louis came crashing in to put an end to the franchise. Even in Charlie’s good games, he was far too behind in tech to amount to anything more than backdoor second. Altogether, Charlie just did not have the tools to make much of his tenuous at best situation, and if “Second To Die” was an AI Survivor category, Charlie would have been a great pick.

Best Performance: The only game where Charlie had a shot to win was Game 13, where if Louis was not a culture-monger, the Burger King would have probably limped to a late Spaceship win.

Worst Performance: Allowing Hannibal to catch him without metals in Game 7, losing two cities on the first turn of the war.

Opera-Loving Aztec Empire Award:
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Vandalized Headquarters Award:
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Charlie advanced to the Championship round in this game. 🍔

Ramesses II of Egypt
Offensive Wars: 8
Defensive Wars: 36
Survival Rate: 25%
Finishes: 2 Wins, 0 Runner Ups (10 Points)
Kills: 1
Overall Score: 11

All one needs to do to diagnose what went wrong for the Pharoah here is to look at his war and survival stats. Single digit offensive war counts, 36 defensive wars, and dying in 75% of these games suggest one thing: when Ramesses was attacked, he usually melted quickly.

In most games, the combination of Ramesses' hammer-poor land and his inability to out-expand Kublai meant that his death warrant was already signed by T100 or so. His expansion was further hampered by constant barbarian harassment, made worse if his northern neighbor Hannibal built The Great Wall to steer the barbarians towards Egypt. These issues were exacerbated by the Egyptian leader spending too much time on lesser wonders like Stonehenge and Temple of Artemis (a good reminder to human players that both of these wonders are classic noob traps), which were great for spreading his religion, but not for straightening out his other priorities. Ram’s issues with his Mongolian neighbor were understandable, but his inability to handle the barbarians was telling considering that he had War Chariots at his disposal. Speaking of which, one issue I noticed from Ram was in general, he was far too attached to his unique unit at the wrong times. Despite being strength five, War Chariots make for terrible defenders against Keshiks and Elephants.

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War Chariots and Aqueducts will surely save me from War Elephants, amirite?

All Ram could muster was two somewhat flukey victories, which, as I had mentioned, stemmed from Louis and Kublai fighting each other into irrelevance in a pre-T100 war. After Game 4, it was no longer sunshine and rainbows for the Egyptian pharaoh. Of the games Ram did not win, he came close in Game 20 (and would have won had he turned up the culture slider), before finding out that going to Space on six cities generally is not a viable strategy (I have no idea how he survived), and there were a couple other games where he had a shot at victory... until he foolishly turned up the Culture slider too early, leading to his downfall. Ram is a great culture-monger, but for someone with a more neutral peaceweight, his diplomatic isolation felt enigmatic at times, especially when Charlie was able to get along with his rivals a bit better. I do wonder if Ramesses high rolled on his peaceweight in this set.

Best Performance: Killing Kublai early in Game 2, and then out-teching HANNIBAL to space.

Worst Performance: Tough to say. He got steamrolled a lot, perhaps his earliest eliminations in Games 5 and 6?

Real Poverty Point Award:
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Tarquinius Superbus of Rome
Offensive Wars: 41
Defensive Wars: 22
Survival Rate: 15%
Finishes: 0 Wins, 0 Runner Ups (0 Points)
Kills: 3
Overall Score: 3
For all of Ramesses’ faults, at least he never reached the ineptitude of this guy. Clearly, Caligula’s horse was leading the Romans in this set. :deadhorse:

To say this was an embarrassment would be an understatement. I saw Nero crash his economy, never use his Praetorians effectively, stop expanding after six cities to plot war, ignore culture for way too long, and effectively serve as the game troll, launching fruitless wars at the worst possible time until he was swatted away like a barbarian. My hypothesis for Commodus’ perplexing performance: he is one of the leaders most hurt by the removal of Deity starting techs. The consensus among the best Civ IV players in the world is that Praetorians are an overrated unit, great for mowing down leaders on Monarch difficulty or for Hall of Fame speedruns, but a very awkward unit in normal high difficulty games. This is because even as an eight-strength unit, military progress is virtually impossible without Catapults, which happen to be on the opposite side of the tech tree. Without Deity starting techs, Elagabalus was often beelining his unique unit without much in the way of useful development techs, smashing Praetorians against a Protective or Creative leader without Catapults, and subsequently becoming a non-factor. Moreover, with Deity starting techs, Honorius had six starting techs, while without, he was stuck with the Mining/Fishing combo, which in the hands of the AI is good in some situations but useless in others (because the AI are not good at maximizing the benefits of immediate access to Bronze Working).

That really is all I can say. Maximinus Thrax was a complete afterthought here, one whose only points came from random kill snipes. The only mitigating factor was his terrible commerce poor land. What a horrific performance from the Actual Game winner , one that significantly taints his dominant early season track record.

Poisoned Bread and Circuses Award:
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Conclusions
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This was an interesting and unexpected set of games, and of all the Season Three sets I have run, this one was, in my opinion, the one most affected by the removal of Deity starting techs. I think Caesar might have fared better with Deity starting techs, while Louis would have been much weaker due to the faster starts of all the warmongers who surrounded him. There was definitely a luck factor in this set, as much depended on who was able to benefit the most from dogpiles. I would not be surprised if another set has quite a different result.
 
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Good grief Caesar :eek: Although as I've mentioned before, given the different conditions of these AHs, I think you assign too much weight to them when looking back on the season itself. JC wasn't playing without Deity starting techs during Season 3, so this doesn't taint his successful performance there nor prove it a fluke.
 
Merry Christmas everyone!

It's been a while - I have been extremely busy over the past 1.5 weeks or so, but I was finally able to get all the championship games done:

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To recall: Stalin won in a stunning upset in a really tight game, while Justinian came oh so close to being AI Survivor's only leader with multiple rings as of now (post S8).

Now, a quick disclaimer: As may be obvious here, I arbitrarily decided to alter the scoring system so that the winner gets 10 points instead of the usual 5.

Why? Well, this is the Championship game after all, where winning means everything, and I felt that it was most important here that the final results actually reflect which leaders actually had the best chances of winning a title. Had I kept the usual scoring system, second and third place would have been switched, and it did not feel right for me to rank a leader with only two wins above a leader with six wins (and, frankly, quite a few near wins).

There were pretty much three tiers of two leaders: the winners, the spoilers, and the suckas. Who was where?
 
I'll also cast a vote against the inflated win scoring. The final scores in the normal version do reflect the flawed nature of the current scoring system with regard to the importance of kill credits. But massively inflating the value of wins isn't the way to fix that and this makes the results fall in line with historical charts (and also actually reflects more clearly that first place was not a ROFLstomp).

Having one leader with a very poor survival rate was to be expected, but a second is more surprising. Were the leaders' peaceweights locked to the same value across all twenty games for these replays?
 
Having one leader with a very poor survival rate was to be expected, but a second is more surprising. Were the leaders' peaceweights locked to the same value across all twenty games for these replays?
The second to last place leader honestly had quite a few flaws and diplomatic issues that had little to do with peaceweight, that I will discuss in the writeup
 
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All right, let's do a proper analysis here! Been a while since I only had to do one of these at a time :crazyeye:

Spoiler Analysis :

Let's start with the easy ones. After all the guesses for Thrasy's series, one pattern that's been thoroughly drilled into my head is that a relatively high win count with low kill count is almost always Pacal. Clearly there are a lot of games that go like the real one, where he gets killed before he can pull all the way ahead, but whenever the others leave him alone for long enough because he's a fellow villain, it's GG.

Meanwhile it's always GG for poor Mansa, and an only 35% First to Die rate is honestly pretty astonishingly low! It's obvious that he's one of the bottom two leaders (the real surprise is that somebody else had it close to as bad as him), so the real question is, was he able to actually win a game? This is Mansa we're dealing with, after all. However, fifth place has seven kills, and if Mansa was in position to get as many as seven kills, I think he'd have more than a single win as a result. That was my line of thinking at first... and then Atesh/Genghis/I-don't-know-what-you-actually-want-to-be-known-as dropped his little teaser that all but confirmed it. Mansa 0% survival confirmed.

So that leaves Stalin, Justin, Julius, and Kublai - three warmongers and a religious warmonger. One of them is a loser who almost never accomplishes anything significant and only managed one, probably very flukey win. The other three run the table and regularly run over the rest of the field, with one of them much better at actually winning than the others. But who fits into which role?

Ironically, even though Kublai was the loser in the real game, I think he's least likely to occupy that role here - he's neither toward the edge of the PW scale nor lacking in early culture. Justin and Julius both are at the top of the PW scale once Mansa's gone, though, and especially if one of them rolled high, that could result in a lot of diplomatic trouble down the road. Meanwhile Stalin and Julius are both weak leaders in the early-game who will especially be without culture for a long time early on, and next to AIs who won't be.

In the end, I settle on the combination of these two factors as the main reasons for fifth-place's poor performance: I think it's JC. We've established pretty well by this point that he's a pretty poor AI Survivor leader with the Deity starting techs removed; here he does start with two Fishing resources, but I don't think that's enough to swing the tide. Especially when he'll also be culturally crushed by both Justin and Kublai, and even more especially if he rolled high on PW, I don't think he can fight his way out of the corner. He repeatedly dies and is overall pretty embarrassing here. It turns out the real game was probably his last true chance at total glory. (As a side note, I think this game is especially heavily impacted by the starting techs change, and combined with ripple effects from earlier in the season is pretty useless at determining if Stalin was a likely champion or not.)

With Julius out of the way, then, we have three performances that, on paper are all quite similar, with near-equal survival and kill rates. The only real difference is that one leader is distinctly better at winning than the other two - and although it's not a creative choice, I have to guess that it's Justinian. He's just better at the competition, in general and especially economically, than either of those other turkeys, plus he borders JC who is usually dying at some point, probably fueling Justin's success in the process. Of course it's still not a crushing victory - this is a dangerous map and there's also Pacal on the other side to contend with - but he clearly performs the bets and proves his chops yet again.

That leaves Stalin and Kublai with, based on the results, no real difference between their performances. Maybe they were actually quite distinct in the replays themselves, but from the numbers alone they appear to have done more or less the same. To put an order to them, though, I'd bet on the one who has early culture to do a bit better overall.


All of which is a very long-winded way to say that I agree with Keler. (except for the comment about why Stalin won, because again this set is useless for analyzing that result due to its major nerf to both Stalin and Julius)
 
Keler and Eauxps's guess is the one which makes the most sense.

Now, those games tend to throw curveballs... so is there another possibility?

Last place has to be Mansa. I could see him winning a coupla games when everything breaks his way, but I can't see him not having the worst survival rate.
Stalin and Pacal border him. Stalin is bad but is more likely to take advantage.
Justinian and Pacal are the most likely to found the early religions, Mansa might make things even worse for himself by founding the 3rd.
Stalin and Caesar are the worst leaders in that field, Justinian is the only one who can't plot at Pleased.

Pacal tends to be weak militarily (at least until he gets the tech edge), so let's assume for contradiction's sake that he's the 20% survival rate.
7 kills and 6 wins could be Justinian then. Kublai, bordering Pacal, should do better than Caesar.
  1. Stalin
  2. Kublai
  3. Justinian
  4. JC
  5. Pacal
  6. Mansa
I still think the other guess much more likely, though...
 
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