Tech Choice After Pottery

[Lord Parkin]

So, we're at the point where we need to start finalizing our decision about what to research after Pottery. The main debate is over whether to go for Writing straight away, or Animal Husbandry first before Writing. Here are a list of the pros and cons discussed earlier to help you vote. If I've missed anything, please let me know.

Researching AH next:

- Pros: Saves a small amount of beakers by researching before Writing compared to if we researched it after Writing. Reveals Horses, potentially allowing us to build Chariots soon if we have any sources on our island. Allows us to see any Horses on the mainland too, for our city planning.
- Cons: Takes time to research, time that could be spent researching Sailing/Maths/Monarchy earlier. No use for the tech if it turns out we have no Horses on our island, since we have no pasturizable resources. No use for Chariots, assuming we can even build them, until we leave the island for the mainland.

Straight to Writing, skipping AH for now:

- Pros: Allows us to research our next techs e.g. Sailing/Maths/Monarchy earlier. Gets us Writing and the Library faster, putting us closer to our next techs. We should be able to trade with another nation to get AH in the not-too-distant future. If no-one else will trade and we find we need it, we can always come back and research AH ourselves.
- Cons: Might delay seeing a source of Horses we could potentially have access to. Might make mainland city planning more last-minute if we can't see the Horses early.

 

[AlphaShard]

I voted for Writing first we get the library up quicker and get a science boost for all Techs. We acn tech AH before settling Main land cities.

 

[champinoman]

I voted for Writing first we get the library up quicker and get a science boost for all Techs.

In direct rebuttal:

This is not the reason the poll exists. Statistically its almost equal in terms of beakers to take either path. The library is only delayed 2 turns by researching AH but the research boost actually makes this path generate more beakers. So if you are voting Writing first because you get more beakers then you are voting the wrong way.

The real decision here is when we will need AH. The decision to skip AH is solely a decision that you think AH and its benefits will not be needed until later in the game after trading for it is possible.

We acn tech AH before settling Main land cities.

If we don't end up trading for it then we have wasted valuable beakers by researching it later. We either need to be able to trade for it later OR get a tech of immediate importance sooner (one that AH would delay the use of) to make skipping AH a viable option.

 

[azzaman333]

Writing before AH is a terrible choice. We will, with 100% certainty, need AH. To not research it now relies on us not having horses and being able to trade for it before we need pastures for it to come out ahead.

 

[azzaman333]

Also, we have no copper. We need something to consolidate the land we settle elsewhere. If we skip AH, do you people intend to research Iron Working immediately after Sailing? Because I do not want to be sending warriors or archers without support on intercontinental escort missions.

 

[Lord Parkin]

We'll probably need Iron Working at some point in the not-too-distant future. Chariots don't defend cities particularly well, even if we have Horses. We still need a source of metal somewhere.

 

[AlphaShard]

Fine I don't think we need AH NOW so I rather go for WRiting first. I also agree with LP, I think were more likely to actaully have iron.

 

[azzaman333]

Having horses means we can significantly delay IW. At least til barb spears show up on our borders, of which the first few can be adequately handled by warriors and chariots.

 

[AlphaShard]

A Chariot take out Spearman? This I got to see.

Course I'm assuming we even have Iron on our Island just like your assuming we have Horse. I think we can tech AH before making any cities of Island. I don't know why you would want to delay Axemen and Swordsmen since we don't even have Archers or Spearmen.

 

[champinoman]

of which the first few can be adequately handled by warriors and chariots.

A Chariot take out Spearman? This I got to see.

You missed half the statement.

And your following statement explains why AH is a good choice. We are all assuming certain things but the difference with AH is that AH is actually able to benefit us without horses and will only delay us 2 turns whereas IW will take a year or 2 to get (feels that way at this pace).

 

[azzaman333]

Because Iron Working is an expensive dead end tech with the sole benefit of revealing iron (in our current situation). Whereas AH saves us beakers on Writing, and hopefully reveals horses.
Researching AH and not finding horses isn't a bad situation to be in, because we still get writing cheaper.
Researching IW and not finding iron is a bad situation, because we don't discount anything, and we spend considerable turns on it.

 

[AlphaShard]

The problem is that we don't even have any pasturable animals yet so AH gives us no benefit right now other then saving a few beakers. It's a gamble to see if any of those grassland river tiles have horses or not. I would hope the Map Maker at least allowed us one Military production resource (Copper, Horse or Iron). IW may be a dead end but if we don't have Copper we are going to NEED Iron. I will conceed we don't need it right now either though.

 

[azzaman333]

A Chariot take out Spearman? This I got to see.

With warrior assistance, sure. Warrior defending in city, fully fortified, has +25% for being in the city, +25% for being fortified, +20% from culture, and possibly +10% for combat 1. These are reasonably good odds to ensure the spearman is at least injured enough for a chariot to counter attack and then build another cheap warrior. Sure, we wouldn't want to do this for too long as it isn't particularly cost-effective, but by then we should hopefully have the 3 cities on the starting island, 2 of which can be very effective commerce city and the 3rd with Moai won't be a slouch either.

Course I'm assuming we even have Iron on our Island just like your assuming we have Horse. I think we can tech AH before making any cities of Island. I don't know why you would want to delay Axemen and Swordsmen since we don't even have Archers or Spearmen.

I'm not assuming anything. It is very low risk to research AH and fail to find horses. It's very high risk to research IW and fail to find iron. Hopefully AH will show horses on our island, and allow us to take control of a nearby copper source on another island.

The problem is that we don't even have any pasturable animals yet so AH gives us no benefit right now other then saving a few beakers. It's a gamble to see if any of those grassland river tiles have horses or not. I would hope the Map Maker at least allowed us one Military production resource (Copper, Horse or Iron). IW may be a dead end but if we don't have Copper we are going to NEED Iron. I will conceed we don't need it right now either though.

YET. We most certainly will at some point. AH will guaranteed save us beakers, and if we're lucky reveal horses on our island. We want to avoid researching IW ourselves if we can, and horses allow us to find and secure copper without having to research IW.

 

[BLubmuz]

I proposed to research AH before Writing to save some beaker.
Now, i voted writing before it, but under this condition: build a library ASAP.
A library is very cheap for us and it gives a +25% which overrides any prerequisite bonus and it also give us the chance to hire Scientists for an Academy or whatever we decide.

We have few tiles where a resource can pop and all those tiles are in Capital's BFC and the only 2 not-forested hills.
Unless the map maker did something very arbitrary, but usually a metal or a pasture resource is always in not-forested (jungled) tiles. Only calendar resources and rice appear in those tiles.

IW a dead-end? surely not. It's on the Astronomy path.

 

[grant2004]

BLubmuz, we will be building a library ASAP under both tech plans. With the build orders that are currently being considered, going for writing first only speeds up the library by 2-3 turns, not enough to override the prerequisite bonus. The difference in beakers is small, but it is absolutely in favor of AH first, thinking otherwise is a mistake. Also on the scientist, the library is not the limiting factor for when we make one, population is, so a scientist is not delayed by going for AH. I don't want you to vote the wrong way based on misunderstandings.

I think you're probably right about us being unlikely to have horses on our main island, but that's not the main reason for going for AH. It saves a handful of beakers over teching it after writing, and allows us to see horses in future settlement sites, and utilize any pasturable resources which we may discover near our first off island settlement.

 

[Lord Parkin]

7-7 at present. Couldn't be any closer.

 

[AlphaShard]

Hopefully we can get a tie breaker.

 

[pindicator]

so ... in the unfortunate possibility that we end this poll tied how do we plan on calling it? Coin flip? (Which coincidentally is the exact determinant used long ago to decide why I'm living in a town named Portland and not a town named Boston.)

 

[champinoman]

Hopefully we can get a tie breaker.

Let me try to swing a vote then

I proposed to research AH before Writing to save some beaker.
Now, i voted writing before it, but under this condition: build a library ASAP.
A library is very cheap for us and it gives a +25% which overrides any prerequisite bonus and it also give us the chance to hire Scientists for an Academy or whatever we decide.

BLubmuz, you have argued that your decision to go Writing first is based on 2 things: 1) More beakers due to earlier library being better than prereq bonus and 2) that we can get a Scientist earlier.

Please correct the above statement if I am wrong. But here is the math:

1) Tech'ing AH before Writing delays our Library by 3 turns. The delay in the Library will cost us a bonus 7gpt resulting in 21g lost over the 3 turns the Library is delayed. The bonus beakers for Writing with AH is 38. Therefore tech'ing AH saves us more beakers.

2) Our population grows to 5 pop after Libraries are built in both examples meaning that regarless of whether or not we tech AH we will have our scientist at its earliest possible time.

So, based on this interpretation of your statement you voted the wrong way as researching AH first is the better option through raw mathematics.

I urge you to comment again either agreeing with what I have said or disagreeing.

 

[BLubmuz]

Let me try to swing a vote then



BLubmuz, you have argued that your decision to go Writing first is based on 2 things: 1) More beakers due to earlier library being better than prereq bonus and 2) that we can get a Scientist earlier.

Please correct the above statement if I am wrong. But here is the math:

1) Tech'ing AH before Writing delays our Library by 3 turns. The delay in the Library will cost us a bonus 7gpt resulting in 21g lost over the 3 turns the Library is delayed. The bonus beakers for Writing with AH is 38. Therefore tech'ing AH saves us more beakers.

2) Our population grows to 5 pop after Libraries are built in both examples meaning that regarless of whether or not we tech AH we will have our scientist at its earliest possible time.

So, based on this interpretation of your statement you voted the wrong way as researching AH first is the better option through raw mathematics.

I urge you to comment again either agreeing with what I have said or disagreeing.

I gave my vote based on "mind math", so roughly.
Of course, if your numbers are correct and i think they are (sorry but i have no time now to verify), the best choice is to go AH-writing, always with library ASAP.