The AI Horatius League

[Genghis the Barbarian]

I’m glad to read Pacal as a fraud, to know Darius would destroy AC, and that Ragnar v Hatty would have been very close with Ragnar coming on top.

KK upsetting Justin isn’t THAT crazy - KK is a blue blood too.

Game 1: Mansa. For the clear cut top three (Mansa-HC-Justin) I see some sort of rock paper scissors here. Mansa is just better at the culture thing than HC; HC is better economically than Justin; Justin’s religion+military combo is a good counter to Mansa.

Game 2: Louis, mainly because 300 turns to win > 350 turns to win

Game 3: Willem. Willem’s biggest weakness (Rifling avoidance) is not a problem because I’ve seen DG have this propensity. Thus, we give this to the better economic leader.

Game 4: Ragnar. Darius is an even better matchup than Hatty.

 

[Thrasybulos]

Tournament 3, Quarterfinals

Spoiler Quarterfinals 1 :

Game 5 was the turning point, with HC failing to convert a strong mid-game into a win, and Mansa managing to rally back.
That said, I had a hunch HC would fare poorly, as the map drawn for those games was S3 Playoff 1, where I'd seen him inexplicably fail hard.

Spoiler Quarterfinals 2 :

It was actually pretty close between these two, as hinted at by the very late victory dates for half the games.

Spoiler Quarterfinals 3 :

This was unfortunately another very unbalanced map: S4 Game 7, where HC's start (in Sullla's game) was completely busted.
And here as well, the leader in that start invariably won the game.
Well, except for game 6: one of the main reasons I'm disabling barbs is because of the leader-stuck-at-war-with-a-one-city-leader-it-cannot-reach bug. In 90+% of the cases, the city in question is a former barb city.
This was the other 10%: the stronger De Gaulle was stuck at war with a one-city Willem, made unreachable by the other remaining Willem's culture.
Luckily, it didn't change the overall result as the other De Gaulle managed to win by Space.

Anyway, owing to the map, it all came down to the tie-breaker game, which went De Gaulle's way here.

Spoiler Quarterfinals 4 :

I must confess that I was expecting a rather easy Ragnar win as well.
Is it really Darius's moment?

Spoiler Current Bracket :

 

[Keler]

Interesting concept. Great work!
So in this way there is no bad draw for leaders in both kind. PW outcast, Starting positions.

Fratricide wars are a very real possibility.

So you rejected the team option. Because otherwise there would be no difference than a duel 1v1 game probably?

The games here were played on the Season 1, Game 7 map... which happens to be one of the most unbalanced maps to ever feature in AI Survivor.

Good catch, funny I actually wanted to make a map conclusion based on my switcheroo results but I never shared, maybe I do it today
Everybody hates a start here to %100 win maps.. makes the whole effort pointless.
Among 6 player maps I found Season 6 Playoff 1 the worst, most unfair map by my basic math statistics hehe. But season1 game 7 is definitely up in my list too.

As for ranking method, I will probably go with number of wins for this one, it is just my preference
Justinian 44 wins the best.

Keep up the good work, it is fun to check it here and follow you, even though if there is nothing to comment, I will leave a like still.

 

[Thrasybulos]

Good to see you back.

So you rejected the team option. Because otherwise there would be no difference than a duel 1v1 game probably?

Essentially because it's a setting very few people use (I've certainly never done so: I don't even know how the cooperation is supposed to work).
Here it's simple: the same AIs we play against (or watch in AI Survivor), under - mostly - the same rules... just three of them.

About map balance data, you had expressed an interest in the latter seasons: I've posted the results of an another experiment, which you might have missed.

I actually wanted to make a map conclusion based on my switcheroo results but I never shared, maybe I do it today

That'd be nice, although with the way the servers seem to be mishaving doing, today might be tricky.

 

[Thrasybulos]

Tournament 3, Semifinals and Finals

Spoiler Semifinals 1 :

Kublai had a good run, but well. Mansa.

Spoiler Semifinals 2 :

Darius's unexpected successful tournament run also ends here, stopped cold by a De Gaulle who confirms he's pretty damn good at this excercise.

This last match-up has to have the easiest outcome to guess so far.

Spoiler Finals :

Or not.
Second time the much maligned De Gaulle wins one of my "events" (he won Jumbled Rumble S2).

Spoiler Final Bracket :

 

[Thrasybulos]

Tournament 3, Rankings and Ratings

Spoiler Rankings :

Top 16 (seeded for Tournament 4):

The rest:

Spoiler Adjusted Elo ratings :

Above average:

Below average:

 

[Thrasybulos]

Tournament 4, Pool Composition

Spoiler :

I'm planning on running a total number of tournaments between 4 and 6.
So depending on how soon I'm ready to start another of my projects, this might be the last one.

 

[Genghis the Barbarian]

I’m ready to join you into the DG train. I think he’s a solid at worst leader tragically dragged down by being PW0.

Running S3P2 AHs and S8WC2 AHs solidified this. Especially S3P2, those had some incredibly impressive games from DG considering his formidable competition.

Also, might as well go over the fields he’s been in:

S1: One of the worst spots in a high PW dominated field. Gandhi or Lizzy would get eaten alive if you reversed the scenario. It’s no different here.

S2: AHs TBD, but DG literally got APed out of the game by a runaway HC.

S3: We all know what happened here. This season revealed that he has hidden strengths.

S4: Another point in DG’s favor. The start was absolutely CRACKED for Julius Caesar, yet in AHs DG was the clear cut #2 and had one of the only non JC wins.

S5: Pretty bad admittedly. He’s not a top tier AI, after all. This set did expose his flaws - he’s kind of a jack-of-all-trades, master of none type.

S6: HORRIBLE, zero commerce land. I think the opening round AHs were being too harsh on him.

S7: Opening Round game and AHs showed how good DG can be in a favorable diplo situation. He was also solid in the playoff game and mid in the AHs, although it revealed how much of a liability PW0 is (it doesn’t help that DG does have Willem tendencies…)

S8: He was admittedly terrible in the opening round. I’m not sure why honestly, maybe he was just too close to shoulda-been-runaway Cyrus. But he redeemed himself and then some in his wildcard game even if the real game wasn’t so good.

The perception of DG appears to be basically a low PW Frederick who meanders around before turning into fodder. I think the reality is closer to a Mao, Mehmed or Churchill type, someone who can hang around for a tenacious 2nd place and even contend for a win. Give him PW2 and he is definitely seeded leader potential.

 

[Thrasybulos]

Tournament 4, Pool Phase

Spoiler Pool 1 :

For once, Gandhi makes it.
Ramesses finds a clever way of dealing with his curse: can't get eliminated in the very next round if you don't qualify for it.

Spoiler Pool 2 :

Viccy is an unexpected pool winner, Qin does the job, Genghis flounders.

Spoiler Pool 3 :

Losing to Freddy must have bruised HC's ego badly... especially as it costs him his qualification!
Lincoln, after two tournaments where he did well, is back to mediocrity.

Spoiler Pool 4 :

Justinian in a class of his own...

Spoiler Pool 5 :

Gilgamesh keeps failing, harder this time actually.
Sitting Bull crushes Ragnar.

Spoiler Pool 6 :

Kublai is unforgiving.
Second place should be disputed between Darius, Suleiman, and Hannibal... and goes to Asoka.
Lizzy gave up, apparently.

Spoiler Pool 7 :

Napoleon is ruthless.
Cyrus, a pretty strong AI Survivor leader who'd so far been pretty bad at this, suddenly gets good.
Hatty, in spite of a decent showing, pays the price.

Spoiler Pool 8 :

Pacal severely underperforms here, which allows Sury to make it to the next round for the second time.

Spoiler Current Bracket :

The Egyptian leaders had been so far powerhouses in the Pool phase... and this tournament sees both of them flounder.
Quite the opposite of the Indian leaders, who both make it here, while they had failed so far.
But the real success story here is France: all three leaders qualify for the next round!

 

[Keler]

Ok let me guess.
Mansa vs Victoria
Saladin vs Justinian
De Gaulle vs Kublai
Napoleon vs Willem

And then
Mansa vs Justinian
De Gaulle vs Napoleon

Justinian vs De Gaulle
This time Justinian wins <3

 

[Thrasybulos]

Tournament 4, Prefinals Round

Spoiler Prefinals 1 :

This was SB's second foray into the knockout stage, and it was as spectacularly unsuccessful as the first one.

Spoiler Prefinals 2 :

Beaker fight.

Spoiler Prefinals 3 :

This was Cyrus's first decent performance in a tournament... but he's still struggling with that format.

Spoiler Prefinals 4 :

Closer than expected.

Spoiler Prefinals 5 :

And thus ended India's adventure.

Spoiler Prefinals 6 :

- Give my portrait back!
- Nope.

Spoiler Prefinals 7 :

This one was a bit of a steal: one of Louis's victories (don't remember whether it was game 2 or 3) should have been a Napoleon's win.
Napoleon was much stronger, and at the same tech level, but he launched his last war at the worst possible moment: too late to prevent Louis from launching, but before launching himself (Naoleon getting into warmode allowed Louis to slip ahead in the ship race).
Louis was getting run over when the game ended, but he still won.

Spoiler Prefinals 8 :

Closer than expected, but almost certainly a map balance issue.
What was definitely unexpected: a Willem vs Pericles match which never ended with a Culture win!

Spoiler Current Bracket :

What's remarkable here is that apart from the Napoleon vs Louis match (which should have gone the other way), the pool winners prevailed every time.

Ok let me guess.
Mansa vs Victoria
Saladin vs Justinian
De Gaulle vs Kublai
Napoleon vs Willem

Spoiler :

 

[Thrasybulos]

Tournament 4, Quarterfinals

Spoiler Quarterfinals 1 :

Mansa actually got a tad lucky there.
Game 2:

Yes, that's right: he won a Cultural Victory, and then, on the very same turn, one of his Legendary cities was captured!
And his whole civ was gone within 15 turns.

And another of his Cultural wins happened as Viccy's ship was well on its way to Alpha Centauri.

Spoiler Quarterfinals 2 :

While Justinian's win bears no argument, the score is a tad harsh.
Game 2:

Justinian pulled a Wang Kon here and only won because Saladin launched with a single Engine.
And by the way, that's how the minimap looked (Justinian(s) in red, Saladin(s) in blue):

Spoiler Quarterfinals 3 :

These two were closely matched, but the tiebreaker was a one-way affair.

Spoiler Quarterfinals 4 :

Turn 437 culture from Willem.
It was a fairly bloody game.

Spoiler Current Bracket :

Amazingly, the top four seeds all make it to the semifinals.

Is Justinian going to get his first tournament win, or are we going to get our first repeat winner?