Under the revised game mortality rates, newborns have a 70% chance of dying before puberty at 14, and a 90% chance of not making it to their eighteenth birthday.
If you do make it to 18, odds are 100% of death before 28.
For the miracle people reaching 30, again 100% chance of death by 35. It grows to 200% probability of dying before celebrating your 40th.
The lottery winners who make it to 40 can look forward to the (now routine) 100% fatality rate by 42.
In short, dont plan for retirement, there are no old people.
A possible solution is to emulate the historical pattern.
Infant mortality
Some authorities estimate
that more than one-third of all infants born during the Middle Ages died
before reaching the age of five. ...
One study of birth and death records from
London for the 1662 by the seventeenth-century English demographer
John Gaunt finds that for every 100 live births, 60 children died before the
age of sixteen,...
So 1/3 divided by five years gets 1/15 chance per year of dying up to age five.
It doesnt get much better for teenagers. Assuming that 33 of the 60 deaths before age 16 were from the 1-5 crowd, that leaves 27 deaths per hundred for the remainder, or 0.27/11 = 2.4% chance of death each year up to age 16.
Source :
http://www.google.com/#hl=en&sclien...pw.r_qf.&fp=4b8d9f76356d42b1&biw=1600&bih=827
Adult mortality
A nice graph of adult mortality in the middle ages is:
source:
http://www.demogr.mpg.de/Papers/Books/Monograph2/patterns.htm
Basically, the chance of survival at age 60 is about eleven percent.
This works out to an annual chance of biting the big one at:
0.89/40 = 2.225%
What all this means for the Game
The following table takes all the above into account
Age_____Annual chance of demise
0-5_____6.7%
6-16____2.4%
17-60___2.2%
61+_____5% (by age 80, all are gone)
Just in case you want to know.
