The European Project: the future of the EU.

[Traitorfish]

I find it ironic that many estonians sought to escape from under the thumb of an empire to willingly throw themselves under another shortly after. Every argument made for being a province of the EU could have been made to defend remaining a province of the USSR back then...

I have to think that any Estonian who remembers the Soviet era would find that comparison to be in poor taste.

 

[Yeekim]

I don't doubt that estonians had good reasons to want to decide on their own affairs. And as you probably know I would rather have a world made up entirely of small countries. The argument you put forward against the practicality of it is that a larger neighbor will crush the smaller independent polity. But has this ever prevented people from trying and enjoying that independence while it lasted, quite a long time in many cases? Does the certainty of death, hanging as a threat and promised outcome over us all, make us give up on the life we have?
Empires keep rising and falling, even regions that are part of empires break away. Getting crushed by a larger neighbor is not an inevitability, unlike death. And even were it, it was no reason to just surrender. Willingly becoming vassals or components of one empire out of fear of being taken over by an empire is as self-defeating a strategy as I have ever encountered in politics!

Do you think that with the creation of Estonia as an independent country, its constituent counties "became components in an empire" in a self-defeating strategy?
It is not that "larger" = "always better".
It is that technological advancement requires ever larger societies to properly take advantage of the opportunities it affords.
I don't think that this is an extraordinary claim.
Empires go beyond the threshold of what is necessary and fall apart.
Backwards hellholes fail to reach or maintain that threshold and remain backwards hellholes, existing at the mercy of their neighbors, or get absorbed.
The trick is to keep proper pace.
On the other hand, there are always functions that are best decided on lower level.
My city council is still relevant, even though it no longer maintains a military force, issues currency or sets tariffs on goods.

Is there no better argument for the EU that a claim that it is inevitable because countries small otherwise? Can you address the specific points I made in my previous post without resorting to it?You asked for an example of countries able to test cars, I gave it. Your answer about maintaining those tests is pointless because the EU as a body did not do effective tests: it was no better.

I did not ask for an example of a country "able" to test cars.
I asked for a non-EU country maintaining such a function on a permanent basis, as in, actually providing certificates to manufacturers or importers.
You provided none, so I went looking myself, and guess what I found?
https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Bu...g-stains-Japanese-cars-reputation-for-quality

France is not a small country, it can do any and every testing it requires. In fact I challenge you to find one, just one, state function that the french were technically or economically incapable managing alone and need the EU to do it.

What about GPS?

 

[Kyriakos]

I am sure he will help massively, as always. So will his even less savory replacement, the failed ex-defense minister of Germany
It is somewhat nice, though, that by now even clear failures are given a safe seat in the apparently ceremonial job of head of the Eu commission. . .

Btw, what kind of signature (monogram) is that? Doesn't look very safe from counterfeiting

 

[Hrothbern]

I am sure he will help massively, as always. So will his even less savory replacement, the failed ex-defense minister of Germany

We all have to wait and see what direction and accents von der Leyen has in mind and what room she will get for that.
So far she is for me just a very big unknown in that regard.

And from what I understand... also an unkown for many others.
Timmermans, destined to become, to continue to be Vice President, already stated that he had no ideas about her, whether he would accept to work under her, and that he would first have a meeting with her to talk about her intentions.
Which is as such obvious... but stating that in public less obvious.

 

[Kyriakos]

We all have to wait and see what direction and accents von der Leyen has in mind and what room she will get for that.
So far she is for me just a very big unknown in that regard.

And from what I understand... also an unkown for many others.
Timmermans, destined to become, to continue to be Vice President, already stated that he had no ideas about her, whether he would accept to work under her, and that he would first have a meeting with her to talk about her intentions.
Which is as such obvious... but stating that in public less obvious.

Is she at least militaristic? Cause the Cyprus affair might have a use for that

 

[Hrothbern]

Is she at least militaristic? Cause the Cyprus affair might have a use for that

The US - Turkey tensions... increasing because of that S-400... the US sanctions, currency devaluation, inflation, economical issues... will be a nice starter for Erdogan to digest.

But whether the US and or von der Leyen... it will not deliver more than this sea territory issue.

I think that Turkey will only give up North Cyprus in exchange for finalising becoming a full EU-member.
Meaning that the only practical way forward for Cyprus (and the EU) is to develop its economy so good, that the people living in North Cyprus "just want to join" Cyprus.
And yes, the revenues of fossil will play a role in Cyprus getting there.
Which is again imo exactly the reason that Erdogan is making troubles regarding those sea territories.

 

[Kyriakos]

The US - Turkey tensions... increasing because of that S-400... the US sanctions, currency devaluation, inflation, economical issues... will be a nice starter for Erdogan to digest.

But whether the US and or von der Leyen... it will not deliver more than this sea territory issue.

I think that Turkey will only give up North Cyprus in exchange for finalising becoming a full EU-member.
Meaning that the only practical way forward for Cyprus (and the EU) is to develop its economy so good, that the people living in North Cyprus "just want to join" Cyprus.
And yes, the revenues of fossil will play a role in Cyprus getting there.
Which is again imo exactly the reason that Erdogan is making troubles regarding those sea territories.

Can't give up what isn't a country & Turkey will never be in the Eu. With all this talk of a euro army it is funny that it seems that is only for frankafrique imperialism stuff, not for actually protecting an Eu member state like Cyprus.
The way this is being handled by the rogue state of Turkey, war isn't out of the question. But it speaks volumes about "eu solidarity"

 

[Hrothbern]

Can't give up what isn't a country & Turkey will never be in the Eu. With all this talk of a euro army it is funny that it seems that is only for frankafrique imperialism stuff, not for actually protecting an Eu member state like Cyprus.
The way this is being handled by the rogue state of Turkey, war isn't out of the question. But it speaks volumes about "eu solidarity"

What do you suggest ?
A war ?.... and kicking out the Turkish people from North Cyprus, or make a Palestina of them ?

You are too impatient as usually
(like playing chess and moving your queen, knights, bishops all over, just spilling moves and ignoring that the humble pawns are the most important chess pieces for your positional play structure)

At the moment East Europe joined the EU, the economical use (as cheap labor country within the supply chains of the EU) of Turkey diminished greatly for the EU.
At the moment China and the Asian tigers grew massively their cheap garment, footwear, TVs, etc,etc... completed low priced goods to increase the buying power of (low income) consumers in the EU, the importance of Turkey for these goods diminished greatly.
Turkey as a whole, in its behaviour, did not and does understand that change in position from external processes.
Keeping up presence in North Cyprus will be expensive... supporting North Cyprus economy will be expensive.

As said: when North Cyprus people decide themselves to want to join Cyprus because "everything" is better (except that flag)... the situation will solve itself.
For now it is only that fossil revenue.

 

[Kyriakos]

What do you suggest ?
A war ?.... and kicking out the Turkish people from North Cyprus, or make a Palestina of them ?

You are too impatient as usually
(like playing chess and moving your queen, knights, bishops all over, just spilling moves and ignoring that the humble pawns are the most important chess pieces for your positional play structure)

At the moment East Europe joined the EU, the economical use (as cheap labor country within the supply chains of the EU) of Turkey diminished greatly for the EU.
At the moment China and the Asian tigers grew massively their cheap garment, footwear, TVs, etc,etc... completed low priced goods to increase the buying power of (low income) consumers in the EU, the importance of Turkey for these goods diminished greatly.
Turkey as a whole, in its behaviour, did not and does understand that change in position from external processes.
Keeping up presence in North Cyprus will be expensive... supporting North Cyprus economy will be expensive.

As said: when North Cyprus people decide themselves to want to join Cyprus because "everything" is better (except that flag)... the situation will solve itself.
For now it is only that fossil revenue.

No one is talking about northern cyprus, that isn't a recognized entity and obviously has no economic zone. The Eu should at least pretend to be protecting an Eu member (Cyprus). As for Greece, as you know we have 3000 tanks and other stuff, so the situation there is different.
Also, north Cyprus is already Palestine - they don't want to be a turkish prison-state either. But like I said, that isn't the issue; they aren't a recognized state so have no economic zone.

 

[Hrothbern]

No one is talking about northern cyprus, that isn't a recognized entity and obviously has no economic zone. The Eu should at least pretend to be protecting an Eu member (Cyprus). As for Greece, as you know we have 3000 tanks and other stuff, so the situation there is different.
Also, north Cyprus is already Palestine - they don't want to be a turkish prison-state either. But like I said, that isn't the issue; they aren't a recognized state so have no economic zone.

But what kind of protecting do you talk about ?
I understand so far from you only military or threats with military

 

[Kyriakos]

But what kind of protecting do you talk about ?
I understand so far from you only military or threats with military

Macron supposedly pledged to protect cypriot waters. Don't you think it should be an eu-wide pledge? Sort of because it is area of an Eu country and all.
Economic sanctions would be the obvious thing to do, though.

 

[Hrothbern]

Macron supposedly pledged to protect cypriot waters. Don't you think it should be an eu-wide pledge? Sort of because it is area of an Eu country and all.
Economic sanctions would be the obvious thing to do, though.

There was recently a South EU summit in Malta, with all the South EU members together. I already posted on their declaration.

This is what Macron stated after that summit:
“I want to reiterate my solidarity with Cyprus and my support and respect for its sovereignty. Turkey must stop its illegal activities in Cyprus’s exclusive economic zone,”
“The European Union will not show weakness on this matter,”

This is what Tsipras stated after that same summit:
“It’s important to signal that the EU should take specific measures if Turkey does not stop its infringing behaviour. Whoever doesn’t respect international law must suffer the consequences,”

Do you see the difference between those statements ?
Tsipras is telling what the EU should do with words as "specific" and "suffer" to get some emotional escalation in it.
Clearly he is not talking with Turkey here, or talking with the EU here... he is "talking" to the Greek people.

And more importantly he is telling the EU here to announce a specific suffering action if Turkey does something.
That's a great way to escalate.
As soon as that announcement is made by the EU in a crystal clear specific description...Erdogan is going to "test" it, to prove that Turkey is greater than that insult.

The EU prefers "diplomacy" and that is more the way Macron made his statement.

 

[Kyriakos]

There was recently a South EU summit in Malta, with all the South EU members together. I already posted on their declaration.

This is what Macron stated after that summit:
“I want to reiterate my solidarity with Cyprus and my support and respect for its sovereignty. Turkey must stop its illegal activities in Cyprus’s exclusive economic zone,”
“The European Union will not show weakness on this matter,”

This is what Tsipras stated after that same summit:
“It’s important to signal that the EU should take specific measures if Turkey does not stop its infringing behaviour. Whoever doesn’t respect international law must suffer the consequences,”

Do you see the difference between those statements ?
Tsipras is telling what the EU should do with words as "specific" and "suffer" to get some emotional escalation in it.
Clearly he is not talking with Turkey here, or talking with the EU here... he is "talking" to the Greek people.

And more importantly he is telling the EU here to announce a specific suffering action if Turkey does something.
That's a great way to escalate.
As soon as that announcement is made by the EU in a crystal clear specific description...Erdogan is going to "test" it, to prove that Turkey is greater than that insult.

The EU prefers "diplomacy" and that is more the way Macron made his statement.

"Escalate"? You do realize there is a casus belli on the part of Turkey in the case Greece announces its maritime zone is at 12 miles (as per international law of the sea), right?
Words hardly are an escalation when you are dealing with a rogue. But I am sure the interests of Holland are more important than law - maybe you need to export more beef or whatever, that is why the Eu was made in the first place.
Also, no, the Eu is not about diplomacy instead of sanctions. Remember the ongoing sanctions against Russia? And once again, Cyprus is an actual Eu member state, unlike Ukraine.

 

[EnglishEdward]

Never mind, what Alexi is Tsipras said while campaigning.

I understand congratulations are due to Kyriakos Mitsotakis winning the election in Greece.

The question is what will be his line.

 

[Kyriakos]

Never mind, what Alexi is Tsipras said while campaigning.

I understand congratulations are due to Kyriakos Mitsotakis winning the election in Greece.

The question is what will be his line.

The only good thing about him is his (first) name

 

[Hrothbern]

"Escalate"? You do realize there is a casus belli on the part of Turkey in the case Greece announces its maritime zone is at 12 miles (as per international law of the sea), right?
Words hardly are an escalation when you are dealing with a rogue. But I am sure the interests of Holland are more important than law - maybe you need to export more beef or whatever, that is why the Eu was made in the first place.
Also, no, the Eu is not about diplomacy instead of sanctions. Remember the ongoing sanctions against Russia? And once again, Cyprus is an actual Eu member state, unlike Ukraine.

You cannot just start (trade, military, whatever) wars Kyr because of a technical "casus belli",
unless ofc you want a "war".
In such a case you can always find a "casus belli", like the UK with Don Pacifico.
Or like Trump with that Christian pastor.

Do not expect members of the EU to support how you assess that "casus belli" and what you propose !

And do not underestimate the diplomatic pressure of the EU.
The UK is learning a lesson there with Ireland after misunderstanding diplomatic signals of the EU.

 

[Kyriakos]

You cannot just start (trade, military, whatever) wars Kyr because of a technical "casus belli",
unless ofc you want a "war".
In such a case you can always find a "casus belli", like the UK with Don Pacifico.
Or like Trump with that Christian pastor.

Do not expect members of the EU to support how you assess that "casus belli" and what you propose !

And do not underestimate the diplomatic pressure of the EU.
The UK is learning a lesson there with Ireland after misunderstanding diplomatic signals of the EU.

Sooner or later some countries will have to decide if they will lose more money by forcing Cyprus to veto a deal with the Uk, or lose some beef by having sanctions on Turkey.
Or Greece will just practice its right to have 12 miles of sea area from each island, at which point Turkey will declare war. Would be interesting to see if the Eu won't care if one of its states has war declared on it. Maybe pull a Trump with "from many sides, many sides"

 

[Sofista]

(like playing chess and moving your queen, knights, bishops all over, just spilling moves and ignoring that the humble pawns are the most important chess pieces for your positional play structure)

Oom Hroth leert zijn neefje schaken

 

[Hrothbern]

Oom Hroth leert zijn neefje schaken

Translated: Uncle Hroth learns his nephew to play chess.

Reading-glancing through the book... not bad at all
With chapter 8 on losing a tempo, and why that is bad.
Though no mentioning of the traditional rule of thumb that 3 tempo's have the value of 1 pawn.

Sooner or later some countries will have to decide if they will lose more money by forcing Cyprus to veto a deal with the Uk, or lose some beef by having sanctions on Turkey.
Or Greece will just practice its right to have 12 miles of sea area from each island, at which point Turkey will declare war. Would be interesting to see if the Eu won't care if one of its states has war declared on it. Maybe pull a Trump with "from many sides, many sides"

Cyprus will not veto an UK deal.

And Erdogan is showing off to his people. Yesterday sending that (Turkish) Mickey Mouse drilling ship to that area.
Playing the "victim" quite a popular strategy of "strongmen" like Erdogan also here. The strong victim doctrine.

When the EU makes public moves it will be better when that has the support of all members. Allowing a clown like Erdogan to create serious divisions within the EU not desirable.
Allowing some EU members to force the EU as a whole to make premature public moves before (enough) consensus has been reached equally undesirable.

And hereby I stop discussing this... until really something happens.

 

[Sofista]

Translated: Uncle Hroth learns his nephew to play chess.

Reading-glancing through the book... not bad at all
With chapter 8 on losing a tempo, and why that is bad.
Though no mentioning of the traditional rule of thumb that 3 tempo's have the value of 1 pawn.

Just consider who wrote it... It would be strange if it were bad.
I'd say asking average children to make proper use of a three tempi advantage (chess: the magical game where matter can actually be converted into energy) would be pushing it. By comparison, the f7 sacrifice would look IMHO much prastical in their eyes - I don't read/understand Dutch; the book does not cover it, I'd suppose?