The New Tariff Conversation

Trump just announced a 100% tariff on foreign made films.

How would that even work, how do you tariff the studios who film in other countries when they're still American studios?
 
On a technical level to answer this question, if American film studios are spending the money abroad, I’m sure that must be accounted somewhere, then assess the tax based on that.

In Hollywood accounting, they will probably find some way to reduce it to the cost of one reel of celluloid that passes the border, claim it as a loss, and still make money on it in the end.
 
Those wouldn't be tariffs though, they'd just be taxes, that AFAIK requires legislation which he's broadly not bothering with at all?
 
Those wouldn't be tariffs though, they'd just be taxes, that AFAIK requires legislation which he's broadly not bothering with at all?
I would imagine the calculations would be on some kind of ad valorem basis. It would depend on how the tariff schedule is composed, I suppose, to determine the value of the foreign-made portions.

I’m not saying it’s good or necessary, just that it is possible within the powers conferred to the President by the Congress. I would much rather see Congress rescind some of those powers, for Trump and any executive.
 
If a digital product is sent from one company computer to another or carried in a suitcase, I'm not sure that any entry would be recorded. Maybe they plan on charging theaters when they show the films. I wonder what the 100% tariff would be on a film that costs $100 million.
 
Hollywood is on the decline?
How long has it been at the top? (of a global brainwashing enterprise)
How much has it shaped our collective psyche, fellow 20th century people?

That beast can die without my mourning.
 
St upid.jpg
 
People are hearing another 100% tariff, this time on computer chips from Taiwan, with an expected announcement on Wednesday.


It is hard to wrap around how catastrophic this would be for so many sectors of the US economy, given that there is no choice but to continue to get certain chips from TSMC. Nowhere in America (or the rest of the world) has as advanced of chip making capacity. This would be extremely funny in the sort of “self-immolating all US tech companies and tech-adjacent companies and car companies and everything else” way I suppose.
 
Nowhere in America (or the rest of the world) has as advanced of chip making capacity.

That ain't true: Korean Samsung has 3nm capacity today. Intel and TSMC are currently building cutting edge processes inside the USA, some of these fabs will go online in 2026. TSMC pledged to build even more cutting edge fabs, once Trump came in. Taiwan's relative superiority in cutting edge processes is going to wane. TSMC can't afford to lose Apple and Nvidia as clients, so they'll do anything they're asked to keep those clients - including building as many robotised chip assembly fabs in USA as necessary. Not only Taiwan is going to build fabs in USA with its own money, Taiwan is also going to stop all cutting edge exports to China. Because for now, Taiwan is the manufacturing hub for Apple/Nvidia, not for Xi Jinping.

Would it be smarter if USA admitted defeat in the chip race, gave up Taiwan to China together with all Taiwanese manufacturing, admitted to it's secondary role in the chips and elsewhere, because some people say catching up through tariffs and new fab construction can be catastrophic? I don't think so. Trump may be an elephant in the china shop (well, he IS), but doing nothing and admitting "there is no choice but to remain second" is an even worse choice to those in decision making positions.
 
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A plant comparable to a TSMC plant, takes around 3-8 years to build, depending on capacity and yield.
Costs around $20-100bn, also dependent on capacity and yield.

The idea that Trump thinks that tariffs on imported semiconductors produced abroad, will just make these companies drop production in foreign plants and start building them in the US, is ludicrous. Outside of perhaps particle accelerators, these plants represent the most technologically advanced machinery made by mankind. They are huge, long term investments that took many years to decide and process.

Another thing - China is spearheading the market for lower-mid range chips. They aren't going to move an inch because of Trump's brain farts. As far as Xi is concerned, China is winning Trump's self inflicted trade war.
 
That ain't true: Korean Samsung has 3nm capacity today. Intel and TSMC are currently building cutting edge processes inside the USA, some of these fabs will go online in 2026. TSMC pledged to build even more cutting edge fabs, once Trump came in. Taiwan's relative superiority in cutting edge processes is going to wane. TSMC can't afford to lose Apple and Nvidia as clients, so they'll do anything they're asked to keep those clients - including building as many robotised chip assembly fabs in USA as necessary. Not only Taiwan is going to build fabs in USA with its own money, Taiwan is also going to stop all cutting edge exports to China. Because for now, Taiwan is the manufacturing hub for Apple/Nvidia, not for Xi Jinping.

Would it be smarter if USA admitted defeat in the chip race, gave up Taiwan to China together with all Taiwanese manufacturing, admitted to it's secondary role in the chips and elsewhere, because some people say catching up through tariffs and new fab construction can be catastrophic? I don't think so. Trump may be an elephant in the china shop (well, he IS), but doing nothing and admitting "there is no choice but to remain second" is an even worse choice to those in decision making positions.

SMC chips still beat Samsung in performance. Putting aside that #nm are just marketing now divorced from actual size, TSMC is at 60% yield on their “2nm” vs 30% for Samsung as of February. I would like to believe Intel is getting their act together but their AI chips were terribly disappointing. Both Samsung and Intel are facing scaling questions they haven’t had to face given TSMC is 2/3 of the market.

And the US is/was doing something about manufacturing chips with industrial policy and the Chips Act, which are a billion times better than randomly on/off tariffs. Plus new factories take years of planning. TSMC had most of this in place well before Trump was elected, they just do like Apple and announce them again so he can feel important.
 
The idea that Trump thinks that tariffs on imported semiconductors produced abroad, will just make these companies drop production in foreign plants and start building them in the US, is ludicrous. Outside of perhaps particle accelerators, these plants represent the most technologically advanced machinery made by mankind. They are huge, long term investments that took many years to decide and process.

The idea is that even before Trump, in Biden's times, it was obvious to the White House administration, that USA urgently needs to return manufacturing capacity back home. Hence multiple factories under construction by TSMC, Samsung, Intel - partly compensated by the CHIPS act. Notice, Trump isn't debating Biden admin's idea - he is supercharging it by weaponising trade tariffs.

I don't think that Trump tariffs will make TSMC "drop" production at home. They will continue producing for Asian, Latin American, African and EU markets and continue collecting added value there. It's just the American consumer will now be buying chips produced in North America. The rest of the cogs will keep spinning exactly like before.

Spoiler Fabs :

🇺🇸 Major Semiconductor Fabs Under Construction in the U.S.​

1. TSMC​

  • Investment: $165 billion total, including a recent $100 billion expansion.
  • Facilities: Three advanced fabs, two packaging plants, and an R&D center.
  • Technology: Producing 4nm chips, with plans for 3nm and future 2nm nodes.
  • Timeline: First fab operational; second completed ahead of schedule; third in planning.
  • Jobs: Expected to create tens of thousands of high-tech jobs.

2. Intel​

  • Investment: Initial $20 billion, with potential expansion up to $100 billion.
  • Facilities: Two fabs under construction, part of a planned eight-fab megasite.
  • Technology: Focused on 10nm process technology.
  • Timeline: First fabs expected to be operational by 2025.

3. Samsung​

  • Investment: Approximately $40 billion, supported by a $4.74 billion CHIPS Act grant.
  • Facilities: Two new logic fabs and an R&D center.
  • Timeline: Initial operations delayed to 2027 due to construction and supply chain challenges.

4. Micron​

  • Investment: Up to $100 billion over 20 years.
  • Facilities: New DRAM fabs in both locations, with the Boise facility featuring the largest cleanroom in U.S. history.
 
If only there were a prominent respected Republican who spoke out against such craziness.

 
Trump and his cult doesn't care what he said five seconds ago, let alone what someone said 40 years ago.
 
At different times during his administration, tariffs and quotas were imposed by Reagan on Japanese cars, motorcycles, and electronics. He also sought to weaken the dollar vs. the yen and the deutschmark.

Reagan had a mixed legacy on government intervention.
 
Spoiler for large image :
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Trump apparently thinks he can order other countries to change our own medicine prices
 
One of my eye drops costs $700+ for 3 months supply from my local CVS. The exact same bottle, when purchased through a Canadian Pharmacy and shipped from Asia costs $82 for 3 months supply.
 
Like most countries I imagine do, we have a monopsony purchasing arrangement where all medications are purchased by the government and then sold at a fixed price to citizens. A single purchaser means a stronger bargaining position with manufacturing companies so they can keep prices down.

The US would be welcome to adopt that too instead of leaving it to a private market which apparently jacks prices up, but nothing they do can force other countries to change their current arrangements.
 
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