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The European Project: the future of the EU.

Discussion in 'Off-Topic' started by Hrothbern, Jan 14, 2019.

  1. Patine

    Patine Deity

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    Ah, so basically apply the policies to the EU and it's member state that the US Republican party views as ideal for it's own states. Considering the utterly dysfunctional and broken Federal-State and Interstate political and economic mechanics of governance, the blatant disparity of wealth (and seeming pride in it by many, even among the dirt poor, backward States), and the fact that virtually every Red and Purple State had secession petition on the We the People website during Obama's Administration, and then virtually every Blue and Purple State also have had such petitions thus far the Trump Administration, and there are over secessionist parties for various States and Regions of the country registered and active, and though all small Third Parties, the ones in Texas, California, Hawaii, and Alaska have been gaining steam (the terms Texit and Calexit have started circulating in various circles), and the Alaska Independence Party even had two Governors under the actual party label on the campaign trail and while in office. So, yes, a stellar system of Federal governance to emulate, but it saves government money, especially if you follow the hard Republican path - and EVERYONE knows money is worth a lot more than human life. :S
     
  2. Hrothbern

    Hrothbern Deity

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    The EU is prepared to show it's teeth to EU-members not adhering genuinely to the Rule of Law or allow corruption to fester.
    Final decision will be taken later this year.
    Should have happened much earlier.


     
  3. Ironsided

    Ironsided Flower of happiness

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    What bizarre data in that wealth map. The numbers are all over the place. The median adult Italian has more than twice the wealth of the median adult German? Greek more than Swedish and like 15 times the Turkish? Icelandic almost three times that of a Norwegian? I’d say these estimations are beyond the very low standards I’ve learned to expect from credit companies. Is it a perfect example of how fake news is generated and consumed by people lacking in critical thinking? Numbers seem so bonkers I had to at least skim the report.

    The map is probably an amateur data visualisation and not found in the report - but the numbers are all accurate to Credit Suisse estimates as far as I can see. I have not been able to find a single hard definitions of anything relating to the measurement - like what constitutes an adult, or wealth and there is not a single hard reference to data sources or method or explanation of the data model. Maybe it’s just a credit company being what they are when not busy being cited in news media - utter bollocks.
     
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  4. Hrothbern

    Hrothbern Deity

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    Because it is NOT what you would expect... indeed also Germany... I posted it here.
    But I posted it after I checked it out with other data :)

    I add some stuff... not now
    The other thing is the comparison between countries of the rate of Mean wealth / Median wealth per adult.
    A kind of primitive Wealth GINI.

    Wealth distribution and accumulation is something too little reported upon.

    Mostly it is about income with perhaps Gini.
    But that gives only the incremental.
     
  5. Ironsided

    Ironsided Flower of happiness

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    Given what we know and actually have pretty hard figures on that data would suggest rampaging income inequality in Sweden and Germany, not exactly what these two countries are known for, but I look forward to learn more.
     
  6. Hrothbern

    Hrothbern Deity

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    ok
    please share some findings here :)

    my prime interest is indeed the "slow coupe" in money transfers affecting equality and diminishing the democratic government in the ever increasing opaqueness
     
  7. Ironsided

    Ironsided Flower of happiness

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    Don’t you start thinking you're gonna make me read the whole damn thing, because I won't. It has nothing I would look for - like actual data sources, formulas and expressions. What I do suspect is that you will find a good correlation with home-ownership and estimates on property values - without any insight as to how said property acquisitions were financed.
     
  8. Lexicus

    Lexicus Deity

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    I think Germany is notable for pursuing an economic policy that favors exports at the expense of domestic consumption and so it perhaps isn't so surprising that the median wealth of Germans is fairly low.
     
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  9. Hrothbern

    Hrothbern Deity

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    There is a correlation with housing indeed. Is part of the story.
    That East Germany was added in 1989 has also a (not so big) effect. East Germany is roughly 20% of population.

    Germany started to give gas on export around 2000.
    Rebuilding East Germany and making the West-Mark equal to the East-Mark was very expensive and the "return" on that "investment" very low. In eufemistic terms: a very strategic, very, very long term investment.

    What you say will have had some effect during those 20 years, but does not explain the difference with France and the very big difference with NL and Belgium.
    Wealth accumulation is a slow process (for the median)
     
  10. Lexicus

    Lexicus Deity

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    I didn't even look at the data, just going off what you guys have said about it on this page, and just bouncing ideas out there to see if they stick.
     
  11. Patine

    Patine Deity

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    Are you saying that Bavarian beer and Southern German-made automobiles are at more of a premium on the market in Germany itself than they are here in Canada?
     
  12. Hehehe

    Hehehe Emperor

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    An interesting thread. I myself am very much pro-EU. I think that even though the EU will never be the United States of Europe, Europeans can and will benefit from cooperation in many areas (trade, and maybe defence). Still, even I have to admit that the EU has some difficult challenges ahead. At the very least the common currency needs to be reworked I think. European identity is also a curious topic. I'd argue that it exists, even if it is nowhere near as strong as our national identities. I know this is just a small anecdote, but in e-sports, Europeans already compete in European teams rather than national teams
     
  13. Ironsided

    Ironsided Flower of happiness

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    @Hrothbern did you have any more insight to the source and calculations of the numbers in that graph? I'm not hoping for much but it would be intreresting to know what you know?
     
  14. Hrothbern

    Hrothbern Deity

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    Had no real time for something coherent here. I will do that when more time.
    Bit here some bits for you already.

    There are many sources on wealth. I browse through most of it that is better than fluff. Credit Suisse doing it consequent over some time now (more chance on consistentency methods over time).
    That map is from the wiki on median and mean wealth. (that rate interesting because it shows how effective the inequality was per year to pump money upward)
    Here the wiki list of that rate. And you can see that the US has a far higher rate (lmost 7) than many rich EU countries: a lower median and a higher mean.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_wealth_per_adult

    Numbers there are based on Credit Suisse. Latest 2018 report here:
    https://www.credit-suisse.com/media...ch-institute/global-wealth-report-2018-en.pdf

    Now... on that real estate
    Not every country has the same percentage of houses owned per household.
    Normally the higher that % the more adults have benefitted from real estate price increases (typical higher than inflation, and typical more higher than real wage increases).
    => high house ownership lowers the rate between mean/median wealth per adult.
    A side factor in some countries important is the marginal price increase effect on houses if there are not enough houses for the population.
    For example here in NL there are strict rules where and how to build houses (we have an extreme high population density). This has led together with more divorces, immigration to much pressure on the housing market prices for ordinary houses. With 70% or so of our households owning house, everybody who had a house saw its wealth increasing substantially.
    => a higher effect on the total wealth distribution of real estate compared to other kinds of wealth. (and a moderate mean/median wealth rate).
    On the flipside of that: IF 1 million or so Dutch people would emigrate suddenly to another country, the house prices would go down with I guess with 30% at least in that new balance, and reduce median wealth more than mean wealth, and the now very low mean/median rate of 2.2 would increase somewhat (but stay low). Do note that when someone owns a house of 300,000 and has still 200,000 to pay, a price decrease of 30% means his wealth is reduced from 100,000 to 10,000.
    Here that % owned houses per household. (Greece has for example 75% and Germany very low with 50%)
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_home_ownership_rate
    Add for Germany on top that the housing market is not really "mature" in the commercial sense that it is really governed by best selling price => all house prices in more rural reas are "undervalued".
    For Germany with a very high mean/median rate of 6 the story could be that much of that 35,000 Euro is not wealth of private house owners (underway with having more house value than remaining mortgage) but of savings by the German households living in rented houses. German cultural mentality (traditional) is to save.
    (as a side note: the fiscal policy multiplier as govt counter for economical dips will be low in Germany for actions that benefit median Germans, because they will not spend much, and just add to their savings).

    Very important in that wealth accumulation is how much of that is coming from existing wealth and from income (inequality).
    Wealth 2018 = wealth growth from (saved) income 2017 + ordinary housing wealth growth from ordinary housing wealth 2017 + other wealth growth from other wealth 2017

    On that inequality here below a fair summary article for Europe/OECD showing Gini from disposable income
    Gini disposable income = gini market income + redistribution effect tax system + redistribution social benefits (like unemployment money, rent aid, health services, etc, etc, etc)
    One factor in that standard Gini is missing and that is income from informal economy. Those percentages are low in US, UK, Nordic, but are 10-20% in Southern Europe countries and easily round 30-50% in Latin America countries and 50% in Africa etc.
    When those percentages are higher, most of that is to the benefit and inside the lower income groups. (and the rest is money extraction to the corrupted and the bigger wealth)
    => If you add that informal income to the gini, the south european countries will be more equal (have lower gini) and wealth accumulation is better understood on the lower income range.
    (the other thing that gini does not adjust as potential gini of the cultural-political structure of a country is adjust for the currentr level of unemployment)
    => as clear example
    When the US has a high gini with low informal economy and low unemployment, that high reported gini matches the high intrinsic gini of the US.
    When for example Greece has a relatively high gini for the EU, but I adjust for the informal economy and the high unemployment, Greece has an intrinsic gini that is not that much higher as Netherlands, Nordic countries, Germany.
    https://www.oecd.org/els/soc/cope-divide-europe-2017-background-report.pdf
    On page 10 wealth distribution.
     
    Last edited: Jan 21, 2019
  15. innonimatu

    innonimatu Deity

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    An "european citizen" was sentenced to 6 months in prison for attempting to organize a political protest. Waiting for the EU institutions to contemn this attack on democracy and citizen's rights.

    But wait, it's not a pole or a hungarian. It was in France. And France c'est la France...

    The EU: defending democracy when it is not our good boys doing the oppressing.

     
  16. Yeekim

    Yeekim Deity

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    Waiting for anyone else than Russia Today to pick up the story and elaborate on what the actual charges were.:rolleyes:
     
  17. innonimatu

    innonimatu Deity

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    The actual source for that, as far as I could ascertain, is this. It would be good to have the court decision. That should be public... The names quoted, Marie-Agnès Joly as the prosecutor in Narbonne and Philippe Romanello as judge, check out. I'm not adept at navigating french court records, perhaps someone from France can check.
    Looking from a country where court decisions have been both public and online for years, it's just sad how opaque to casual research french justice seems to be. A feature not a bug?
     
    Last edited: Jan 21, 2019
  18. Yeekim

    Yeekim Deity

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  19. Ironsided

    Ironsided Flower of happiness

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    @Hrothbern


    Sorry for my impatience. I read your reply twise and still don’t understand much more. Can we simplify this to a manageble example like the numbers for Greece and Sweden and if you can point me to possible causes why Greece having the higher median wealth?

    I’m just saying it’s unlikely. Or as you presented it – not what one would expect? Having been to Greece a number of times and being Swedish I would say personal observations speaks against it as well. I’m also not convinced wealth disparity would be much greater in Sweden than Greece either.



    Indicator, Greece, Sweden, Source


    Median wealth, 41k , 40k, CS


    Mean wealth, 108k, 250k, CS


    Home ownership, 74%, 71%, Eurostat


    Gini, 0.34, 0.28, OECD



    Feel free to add stuff…

    Edit. I had flipped the numbers for home ownership.
     
    Last edited: Jan 22, 2019
  20. mitsho

    mitsho Deity

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    Coming back to the origins of this thread (since I‘ve been away, but I really like this topic and I too find that wealth map intriguing, but really can‘t say anything of substance towards it).

    But I do feel that the success of Europe depends not on the big macro-economical indicators, but on the feelings of the average European. That‘s why stuff like „abolishing the roaming“ or the „free“ train passes for 18-year olds are so important. Now of course, all that fluff does is keeping the single market open which of course is hurting the poorer parts of society. The EU has always been a project of the economy, of the rich and of academia. It does need to catch up on social security, but that requires a strong parliament which in turn requires higher participation which in turn makes all that fluff so necessary. It‘s the little things people care about.

    (And we maybe need a „european republic“, just google Ulrike Guerot and her ideas for more. I‘m not the biggest fan, but what she gets right is that the EU needs an offensive in the culture, not the politics: more essays, more songs, more theater plays, more competitions, more games, and not more political treatises et al.).

    Btw. What do you guys think of www.volteuropa.org ?
     

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