The European Project: the future of the EU.

[Phrossack]

In contrast to the subsequent arguments that's true. Yes.

What's your expectation here exactly? Compare US and European history. Oh that we have not swung some magic wand to turn Europe into some candy land paradise federation clearly shows that we don't know what we're doing...

The shutdown is more the cherry on top.
It's really about the institutional dysfunction and the breakdown of the political process more generally.

Don't think I'm some kind of nationalist who wants to see the EU fall. I'm saying that it's being pulled apart by "leave" movements across its member states and I have yet to see any reason to think that the EU can counter these growing movements. I don't know why you don't understand what I'm saying and think instead that I'm talking of magic solutions. I'm asking, "Why should I think the EU can hold its ground against growing anti-EU movements in Poland, Hungary, France, Italy, and elsewhere all at once?"

I still don't see the relevance of your continued references to current US dysfunction here. The US isn't at risk of fragmenting into its component states, while the EU is. That's my whole point.

 

[metatron]

I presume you mean the UK by Texas of Europe (which is a pretty good line).
Have to say German immigration policies have hardly figured in UK politics.
Polish plumbers, swarming Turks and all sorts of other ridiculous stereotypes have but the UK is far too insular to really care about German internal affairs.

Yeah i saw that hardly figuring in UK politics.

I saw Cameron pleading for additional rules (restrictions) to internal migration and the British press doing their usual krautapalooza when he was predictably rebuffed.
I saw Farage and the Vote Leave Campaign use actual imagery from the actual migration (to Sweden and Austria and Germany) to demonise the EU for poisoning the UK with unwanted immigration.

But hey, Trump called out Merkel and her supposedly catastrophic decisions as the literal cause for the Leave victory.
And he's known to be wrong about everything.
So you stand proven correct. My bad.

Don't think I'm some kind of nationalist who wants to see the EU fall. I'm saying that it's being pulled apart by "leave" movements across its member states and I have yet to see any reason to think that the EU can counter these growing movements. I don't know why you don't understand what I'm saying and think instead that I'm talking of magic solutions. I'm asking, "Why should I think the EU can hold its ground against growing anti-EU movements in Poland, Hungary, France, Italy, and elsewhere all at once?"

I don't ascribe any ill will to you. Don't worry.
It's just that... as Cheetah and the others have noted: You (plural) do this a lot. If only a tenth of American soothsaying (by "serious" people mind you) had been true i would be eating my boots and pet the three-headed rat that is my last freind at this point.

 

[AmazonQueen]

Yeah i saw that hardly figuring in UK politics.

I saw Cameron pleading for additional rules (restrictions) to internal migration and the British press doing their usual krautapalooza when he was predictably rebuffed.
I saw Farage and the Vote Leave Campaign use actual imagery from the actual migration (to Sweden and Austria and Germany) to demonise the EU for poisoning the UK with unwanted immigration.

But hey, Trump called out Merkel and her supposedly catastrophic decisions as the literal cause for the Leave victory.
And he's known to be wrong about everything.
So you stand proven correct. My bad.

I will agree with you that it was used by the UK right as another example of the evils of immigration.
Filthy Syrian sexbeasts assaulting decent German women etc.

In terms of who we are xenophobic about its fairly minor. We hate lots of people
I quite admire Merkel, how often do you see a politician make a decision based on principle rather than short-term advantage?

 

[metatron]

I quite admire Merkel, how often do you see a politician make a decision based on principle rather than short-term advantage?

Oh, those two things alligned at the time.
Arguably they still do. It's a complicated matter of significant derailment potential. I shouldn't have started it.

 

[AmazonQueen]

Oh, those two things alligned at the time.
Arguably they still do. It's a complicated matter of significant derailment potential. I shouldn't have started it.

Please don't disillusion me about one of the few politicians I feel any respect for at all even if I dislike her overall political stance.
UK politics is quite enough to depress me, allow me one illusion.

 

[innonimatu]

Here below that Current Account as % of GDP with the big dip directly after the expensive unification and accelerating in 2000
Also the export as % of GDP showing that from 1995-2000 onward the trend breaks from the trend before.

Those graphics reveal a situation both insane and unsustainable. Insane because such a large country as Germany should be consuming more, it's the germans also who are losing out. Who work for export? And unsustainable because it creates a very unstable situation, where the country becomes very sensitive to external effects. Those importers are not going to always be willing importers. How does it wind down?

 

[metatron]

Please don't disillusion me about one of the few politicians I feel any respect for at all even if I dislike her overall political stance.
UK politics is quite enough to depress me, allow me one illusion.

Oh, no. Sure her conviction is relevant and she probably would have done it anyway.
Just... this looked like more of an easy political win at the time. Two birds one stone.
Turned out to be more one bird one trumpist crazy boat full of lunatics.

 

[Hrothbern]

Those graphics reveal a situation both insane and unsustainable. Insane because such a large country as Germany should be consuming more, it's the germans also who are losing out. Who work for export? And unsustainable because it creates a very unstable situation, where the country becomes very sensitive to external effects. Those importers are not going to always be willing importers. How does it wind down?

The Current Account Balance of a currency zone, mostly 1 country, of around zero is fine.
It can be negative during stronger growth, but nothing wrong with being around zero.

A currency zone... and that means you have to look at the Current Account Balance of the Eurozone, which is since 2012 positive, and grew to a stable level of approx 3% of the Eurozone GDP.
(and not that one country Germany at 8%)

In a country the Current Account Balance, being for example zero overall, will vary between the regions or states.
Just like with the debt and budget of a national government and regions/states.

In fact, recuperating from the 2008 GFC, with that Eurozone Current Account Balance growing slowly from -2% to +3%, the Eurozone govts budget deficit dipping at minus 6-7%, back in 2018 at the pre-2008 value of minus 1% to zero..... a stable situation has been reached also for the Euro. The Euro likely to grow a bit in strenght which will go a bit at the expense of exports (net balance now 3% of GDP)
With the Eurozone national debts, being around 65-70% pre-2008 GBF, peaking at 90%, now at 80% and decreasing, the couple of years left before the next financial crisis will hopefully get that debt closer to that 65-70% level, to have enough buffer to handle that next crisis without too much disruption (incl for Germany for example as investment counter adding some lanes everywhere on the big and clogged motorways).

Nothing insane.
And for sure a global stagnation or other calamities that affect trade wiil take influence.
But do mind that the high trade percentages (as % of GDP) of EU countries are totally misleading when you compare with for example the US.
If you would add inter-state trade to the US-trade with foreign countries, you get a much more similar percentage as the total EU trade.
Or they other way around: deduct the intra-EU trade from the EU countries, and you get much more normal trade percentages.
=> The EU is really not that more affected than most other countries in the world from global dips in global GDP.

Nothing really insane, unsustainable or risky.

 

[Traitorfish]

We do have a shared European identity. Our common history, and our common European culture. We share the values of liberalism, of socialdemocracy, of support for the welfare state, of rejection of torture and the death penalty, of support for the rule of law, and of secularism.

"Common European history and culture" is a theme much more strongly articulated by the far-right, these days, and they have little time for liberalism, social democracy or the rule of law.

Not that Europeans ever regard "the rule of law" as a universal principle; see the British in Ireland, the French in Algeria, or the Spanish in, uh, Spain.

 

[tjs282]

And the inconvenience remains that this ugly business of that you guys characterised as "making the EU more like Germany" proved itself remarkably sustainable while the biggest crisis in the EU right now is the fact that the Texas of Europe threw a complete fit over the evil Germany inviting a moderate number of brown people in.
To Germany. Not to the Texas of Europe, which remained largely unaffected yet wholly triggered.

"The Texas of Europe"!

Assuming that I speak as a former resident of said Texas (do I?), I am totally stealing rustling that, hope you don't mind, thangyooverrymuch

 

[innonimatu]

Not that Europeans ever regard "the rule of law" as a universal principle; see the British in Ireland, the French in Algeria, or the Spanish in, uh, Spain.

Not that anyone did. But universal principles are oh so very convenient for those in power when selectively called on.

 

[Yeekim]

"Common European history and culture" is a theme much more strongly articulated by the far-right, these days, and they have little time for liberalism, social democracy or the rule of law.

Maybe we should not abandon that theme to be abused by the far-right then...

 

[Broken_Erika]

Maybe we should not abandon that theme to be abused by the far-right then...

Too late, the far right has touched it. Therefore it is impure/contaminated and must be shunned.

 

[Hrothbern]

Too late, the far right has touched it. Therefore it is impure/contaminated and must be shunned.

And now the far right has discovered a new customer profile... women
For all the women who want to have more rights and especially protection, but not be called a feminist

Somehow the AFD is able to combine that with the nostalgia of the mother at home, taking care for the children and papa earning money
a new breed of unicorns

https://www.theguardian.com/lifeand...he-european-far-right-set-its-sights-on-women

 

[Traitorfish]

Maybe we should not abandon that theme to be abused by the far-right then...

Then we need to start making a better case for it than simply appealing to the image of a shared history. That's the fascist's natural stomping ground; where progressive forces gain ground is by appealing to a shared future.

 

[Hrothbern]

On the economical aspect of the EU, a press release on EPA with many links on details:

European Commission - Press release
EU-Japan trade agreement enters into force
Brussels, 31 January 2019
The Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) between the EU and Japan enters into force on 1 February 2019. Businesses and consumers across Europe and in Japan can now take advantage of the largest open trade zone in the world.

"Europe and Japan are sending a message to the world about the future of open and fair trade. We are opening a new marketplace home to 635 million people and almost a third of the world's Gross Domestic Product, bringing the people of Europe and Japan closer together than ever before"

sets very high standards of labour, safety, environmental and consumer protection; strengthens EU and Japan's commitments on sustainable development and climate change and fully safeguards public services.

http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_IP-19-785_en.htm

Not only a new market for Irish Cheddar cheese and similar national food products, but also easier, cheaper access for the future new hydrogen-electric cars made in Japan (zero tariff), to have serious competition with the German hydrogen-electric cars. Important on cars is breaking down non-tariff barriers on car standards. The deal also contains more freedom for govt procurement and some Financial Services.
As sidenote: Japan had since WW2 a very protected home market and is giving this up in small steps believing that protection is part of their economical stagnation.

 

[innonimatu]

The deal also contains more freedom for govt procurement and some Financial Services.

More freedom or less freedom? I want my government to be free to pick local providers of goods and services when for some reason it decides that is advantageous. Does this deal guarantee that each national government is free to do so? Or does this deal reduce the freedom of governments to decide on this?

 

[Hrothbern]

More freedom or less freedom? I want my government to be free to pick local providers of goods and services when for some reason it decides that is advantageous. Does this deal guarantee that each national government is free to do so? Or does this deal reduce the freedom of governments to decide on this?

The freedom for companies to bid on government procurement requests. In the EPA case requests from 54 Japanese cities.
Do mind that open procurement is a general, though not always effective, measure against corruption, bribery, nepotism and maverick procuring. Japan is in need of improvement there.
There are many theories and thoughts on why North EU is more prosperous, gets more trust in institutions, etc, etc.
Less perception in North Europe of corruption, bribery, nepotism correlates well with those positive indicators.

 

[Hrothbern]

The EU is considering to agree to a proposal to put more countries on the EU blacklist of money laundering countries than the ones on the G-7 blacklist.

The US has already stated it disagrees because of the "flawed process by which it was developed."
Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands are added on the EU black list, just like Saudi Arabia.

Jourová’s initiative goes a step further than the international listing exercise run by the G7-initiated Financial Action Task Force (FATF). That global blacklist includes: the Bahamas, Botswana, Ethiopia, Ghana, Iran, North Korea, Pakistan, Serbia, Sri Lanka, Syria, Trinidad and Tobago, Tunisia, and Yemen.


The Commission’s initiative doesn’t include Serbia but otherwise takes the FATF list and adds: Afghanistan, American Samoa, Guam, Iraq, Libya, Nigeria, Panama, Puerto Rico, Samoa, Saudi Arabia and the U.S. Virgin Islands.
Those additions caused "significant concerns" in the U.S. Treasury, which criticized the "flawed process by which it was developed."
https://www.politico.eu/article/brussels-dirty-money-blacklist-triggers-us-backlash/

The rule of law principle of the many against brute power of the few.
Let's see how Trump is going to obstruct it.

 

[Cheetah]

As long as the many EU countries who are against this blacklist doesn't manage to derail it, I think it won't be stopped. It's a good list.