Masquerouge
Deity
Close to 50%.
The goodby of Chirac
- Thread starter Steph
- Start date
Close to 50%.
Mega Tsunami
Emperor
It certainly was covered here and the general consensus was: Thank goodness for that, his leaving office will be good for France, good for the EU and even good for Britain.
Will he now be tried for corruption? And how come he was immune to such a trial whilst still in office?
Edit – I am certainly looking forward to seeing if Brown or Cameron can get on better with Sarkozy/Royal/Bayrou than anyone could with Chirac.
Will he now be tried for corruption? And how come he was immune to such a trial whilst still in office?
Edit – I am certainly looking forward to seeing if Brown or Cameron can get on better with Sarkozy/Royal/Bayrou than anyone could with Chirac.
Bozo Erectus
Master Baker
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Masq, that California sun must have baked your brains
Her chances of getting in are nowhere near 50%, shes revealed herself to be completely unprepared and out of her league.
That is a strange election...Masq, that California sun must have baked your brains
On one side, we had Royal who had no program at all for a every long time, never answered a question, but run on being a woman, and on the other side, Sarkozy who had a program, answered every question he was asked (you may like the answer or not, but he answered to all of them...)
And Bayrou has no real program either, except to make a "union" government with left and right, "like in Germany".
Now, the polls says that Bayrou - Royal and Sarkozy are very close for the first turn (something like 23-24-26%), and for the second turn, Sarkozy would be Royal 52 - 48 %.
So, Royal has 1/3 to be in the second turn, and then a bit less than 50% to be elected.
The elections is still quite opened.
Masquerouge
Deity
Masq, that California sun must have baked your brains
Okay so this is in French but I'll think you manage.
http://www.lemonde.fr/web/vi/0,47-0@2-823448,54-848463,0.html
"1er tour" means first round. If no candidate gets an absolute majority (highly likely) then the best two candidates face off in the 2nd round, or "2e tour".
These are polls done by 6 different polling institutes, CSA, IFOP, IPSOS, TNS, BVA and LH2, and you can check 1st and 2nd round results for each of them.
I suggest you just click on "2e tour" then click on each of the polling institutes.
You will find Royal consistently close to 50%.
Now of course there is an international plot by women to skew all results in her favor, and yes the weather is darn nice here, but I believe that while she might be unprepared and wear skirts, the French are still ready to vote for her.
CartesianFart
Deity
If any politician who want to sell me a lie and is a female who is half decent-lookin who wears a skirt then i don't mind getting a woody for the deception.
I'm not so sure...
Bayrou may be their in the second turn instead of Royal.
And if you look at the poll, they have a large difference, especially for the second turn.
Ex: if there is Bayrou - Sarkozy in the second turn, TNS Sofres gives 56 to Sarkozy and 44 to Bayrou, while BVA gives 55 to Bayrou and 45 to Sarkozy
That's a 10% margin of error. A lot for this kind of election
Bayrou may be their in the second turn instead of Royal.
And if you look at the poll, they have a large difference, especially for the second turn.
Ex: if there is Bayrou - Sarkozy in the second turn, TNS Sofres gives 56 to Sarkozy and 44 to Bayrou, while BVA gives 55 to Bayrou and 45 to Sarkozy
That's a 10% margin of error. A lot for this kind of election
Bozo Erectus
Master Baker
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Steph and Masq, I just realized I dont know a damned thing about how the French vote for President. First turn? Second turn? 
For what its worth, according to my 'sources', Royal had her chance to make her case to the French people, and she blew it.
For what its worth, according to my 'sources', Royal had her chance to make her case to the French people, and she blew it.
Yeeek
Seizing The Day
Not really getting your humour Bozo. Though, I am honestly trying very hard!
Because in the French constitution, The President is immune. Even as far as being suspected for manslaughter while in office.
Because in the French constitution, The President is immune. Even as far as being suspected for manslaughter while in office.
Ok, I'll try to explain quickly the rules.Steph and Masq, I just realized I dont know a damned thing about how the French vote for President. First turn? Second turn?
First, a candidate needs to gather 500 signatures from mayors of cities or village (we have 36,000), in order to be allowed to run. These signatures must be deposed in front of the Constitutional Council before next friday.
It's easy for the largest party, but some usually have a lot of difficulty to get the signatures.
This system is supposed to avoid small loony candidates to be able to run.
Then, a sunday, every French citizen who can vote will select one of the possible candidate (last time we had 18). If a candidate gets at least 5% of the votes, his campaign is partially refunded. If he has less than 5%, he gets nothings. If a candidate gets 50%, he is immediately elected.
If not, the two candidates with the most votes have to go to a second turn, one week after, and then the one of them with the most votes is elected.
Last time, a lot of people who were not happy with the socialist government decided to "send a warning" by voting to a small parti, but the result was the socialist were below the Front National, and that's how Le Pen was on the second turn, suprising a lot of people. And how Chirac got 82% in the second turn. Against the socialist candidate, he may have lost, or at least be much closer to 50%
Bozo Erectus
Master Baker
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Humor?
Well, he can be tried for high treason
Yeeek
Seizing The Day
Steph and Masq, I just realized I dont know a damned thing about how the French vote for President. First turn? Second turn?
The President in France is directly elected by the French through Universal Suffrage. There is two turns.
I suggest you read the wiki article to be found at :
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/President_of_the_French_Republic
What is Universal Suffrage :
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Universal_suffrage
Yeeek
Seizing The Day
Humor?
Yes your humour, was referring to the picture of the Frenchman you posted. I know you are not that ignorant to mix up Chirac and this person!
Therefore I believe you were trying to be funny.But hey, it may be funny to everyone else. Don't mind me.
Masquerouge
Deity
That's true, but I think it's not completely insane to assume that, as of today, Royal's chances are close to 50%.
Anyway, so yes, Universal Suffrage (very important, and the biggest difference with the US system), and yes, you're required to get 500 signatures but I do not think they have to come from mayors, I believe any elected official will do (it's just that 80% of them are mayors).
Also, a very, very important thing: the amount of money spent, and the amount of media exposure, are closely watched and regulated. The goal is to have every candidate get the exact same amount of media exposure, and rogue ads are not allowed (no SWIFT boats or anything like that). Campaign ads are strictly limited, must not openly attack other candidates, are to be of a certain lenght and will get a set amount of rotations.
The system is far from perfect, but it certainly eliminates the trash usually seen on US presidential campaigns.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/President_of_the_French_Republic#Election
Bozo Erectus
Master Baker
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Steph thanks for that explanation. I have more data now
Yeek, oh yeah I forgot about the pic. But I have always thought Chirac would make a great Guy Crying at The Nazis, they look alike.
Yeek, oh yeah I forgot about the pic. But I have always thought Chirac would make a great Guy Crying at The Nazis, they look alike.
Bamspeedy
CheeseBob
When I was at work over the weekend I saw this news on CNN. Was more of just a line running across the bottom of the screen saying something like "Chirac announces his retirement from his 45 year career in politics, will not seek a third term". Later on it said something about his career and what it did in regards to reforms but I can't remember the exact phrase, so I don't want to comment on it in case I am wrong. (didn't make large reforms despite his promises?) I wasn't paying much attention and I only watched CNN a few short times during break times at work (15-30 minutes), so they might have devoted more time to it, just not during the times I had break from work.
The Last Conformist
Irresistibly Attractive
Re: Chirac's legal immunity, I thought such was the norm for heads-of-state?
The Swedish king, at any rate, cannot be charged for crimes. The police take him in for speeding, see who is, and have to release without a fine him every now and then.
The Swedish king, at any rate, cannot be charged for crimes. The police take him in for speeding, see who is, and have to release without a fine him every now and then.
Mirc
Not mIRC!!!
Strangely, the news didn't speak about this here. I say strangely because they usually follow any movement of his, and his name means something in Romanian.
