The Next World SuperPower
- Thread starter Fayadi
- Start date
Fayadi
Technocrat
U want Professional arguments,here i start , i give net adress on China's potential to be the next superpower
http://www.cfcsc.dnd.ca/irc/nh/nh9798/0046.html
China's economy?
Here is a graph i found from another website!
Taken from http://www.megastories.com/china/
"On the bottom axis of the graph, you see the year. On the right, you see the percentage of the world economy that the regions account for. The area in grey beyond 1997 are the predictions of the International Monetary Fund (IMF). So you can see that the IMF predicts China will overtake the United States and Europe to become the world's largest economy in about 2007. By 2010, it will be three times larger than Japan. We asked Sinologist David Wall, from the Royal Institute of International Affairs in London, to explain."
http://www.cfcsc.dnd.ca/irc/nh/nh9798/0046.html
China's economy?
Here is a graph i found from another website!
Taken from http://www.megastories.com/china/
"On the bottom axis of the graph, you see the year. On the right, you see the percentage of the world economy that the regions account for. The area in grey beyond 1997 are the predictions of the International Monetary Fund (IMF). So you can see that the IMF predicts China will overtake the United States and Europe to become the world's largest economy in about 2007. By 2010, it will be three times larger than Japan. We asked Sinologist David Wall, from the Royal Institute of International Affairs in London, to explain."
Attachments
Simon Darkshade
Mysterious City of Gold
The question on the next superpower is one that is not easily answered. The hegemony of the US does not look to be challenged for sometime to come, militariliy or economically, as it has unrivalled abilities in power projection.
It is undeniable that China is growing, but it has a long way to go before it can be considered a superpower. A greap power yes, but not the hegemon of the international system. My personal feeling is that we will move back to a situation where it is less easy to nominate the superpower.
China, the US, Europe, India, Belize, Russia/CIS - all have the potential to be great powers.
But becoming a superpower requires opportunity created by the decline of possible opposition - the US and the USSR moving into the void of France and Britain after WW2 (the latter had been declining for some time, but had been big over the past century)
Therefore, I cannot choose in good faith any of the options, as the US is already there and seemingly secure, but not impregnable to the eroding effects of time, China is growing, but not as fast as it was a few years back, and does not have the reach to extend its influence beyond its current zone.
It is undeniable that China is growing, but it has a long way to go before it can be considered a superpower. A greap power yes, but not the hegemon of the international system. My personal feeling is that we will move back to a situation where it is less easy to nominate the superpower.
China, the US, Europe, India, Belize, Russia/CIS - all have the potential to be great powers.
But becoming a superpower requires opportunity created by the decline of possible opposition - the US and the USSR moving into the void of France and Britain after WW2 (the latter had been declining for some time, but had been big over the past century)
Therefore, I cannot choose in good faith any of the options, as the US is already there and seemingly secure, but not impregnable to the eroding effects of time, China is growing, but not as fast as it was a few years back, and does not have the reach to extend its influence beyond its current zone.
sonorakitch
Overseas hunter
This entire thread ought to be moved to the humor section.
If China's air force is so incredible, why did China immedietly heed the U.S.'s warnings during the cruise missiles fired over Taiwan in 1996? President Clinton merely sent one carrier battle group, loaded with about 80 aircraft, to the Taiwan Straits. The PLA ran with their tails between their legs! And while your statements comparing the Chinese and American aircraft capabilities are simply humor to the citizens of the rest of the world over the age of 14, Let me point out the the US has just finalized plans to begin construction of the F-22 (a replacement to the F-15), and the Joint Strike Fighter (a replacement to the F-16), which will be the most advanced fighter on the earth, with semi-stealth technology. And even still, to suggest that Chinese aircraft are advanced is a real joke. I have seen it there; I took a tour up the Huangpu River in Shanghai and saw China's second largest naval base first hand: all the ships were painted white and were visibily 50 years behind in technology. And why did China so bitterely oppose the sale of AEGIS systems to Taiwan? One final thought: the Chinese governments big military spending increases are a direct result of watching America fight the Iraqis. They were, according to officials within the PLA, awestruck. I have read strategists' accounts of a possible war, where it is outlined that once America gained control of the air over China (about 6 weeks), all hope would be lost. Let me say, it would be virtually impossible for the U.S. to ever occupy China, but China is certainly on its "best behavior" because of the sheer and long term supremacy of the U.S. military. I think it sums it up in the fact that China could not even take a "renegade" province off of Xiaman, and a province of one third the size to the Philippine Island of Luzon at that. Why? Because they are armed with American technology, which is again, far, far, far, far, far superior.
Now, I would like to say I love the Chinese culture and have lived, studied, and traveled throughout China most of my life. I have a great respect for the industrious nature of the Chinese people, and am always happy to see Chinese immigrants moving to America. But your suggestions in this thread are pure fantasy.
Also, for the prospects of a China superpower: it will be many, many, many, many years off if ever. China is going to struggle with demographics. The population is, on average, very old in China, and due to the one child policy of several decades, there will be an enormous burden on the young in China to support the old. This will last at least three generations. And China's wealth is overwhelmingly concentrated in the cities, whereas the majority of China's population is located in the more rural, and very, very poor areas of the agrarian region. Also, China's rising economy is only due to something called "asset priced inflation". Essentially, China's measured economy includes the hordes of foreign investment in the region, which actually siphons off a great deal of revenue. So while I think it may be possible in a couple centuries, China is nowhere near the status of even a regional power yet. Japan would have a fairly easy time containing Chinese aggression if it just put a few percent of its GDP into its military. And India also poses a very real threat.
Again, I like China, and I understand Nationalism on your part Fayadi, but fiction is fiction and facts are facts.
~Chris
If China's air force is so incredible, why did China immedietly heed the U.S.'s warnings during the cruise missiles fired over Taiwan in 1996? President Clinton merely sent one carrier battle group, loaded with about 80 aircraft, to the Taiwan Straits. The PLA ran with their tails between their legs! And while your statements comparing the Chinese and American aircraft capabilities are simply humor to the citizens of the rest of the world over the age of 14, Let me point out the the US has just finalized plans to begin construction of the F-22 (a replacement to the F-15), and the Joint Strike Fighter (a replacement to the F-16), which will be the most advanced fighter on the earth, with semi-stealth technology. And even still, to suggest that Chinese aircraft are advanced is a real joke. I have seen it there; I took a tour up the Huangpu River in Shanghai and saw China's second largest naval base first hand: all the ships were painted white and were visibily 50 years behind in technology. And why did China so bitterely oppose the sale of AEGIS systems to Taiwan? One final thought: the Chinese governments big military spending increases are a direct result of watching America fight the Iraqis. They were, according to officials within the PLA, awestruck. I have read strategists' accounts of a possible war, where it is outlined that once America gained control of the air over China (about 6 weeks), all hope would be lost. Let me say, it would be virtually impossible for the U.S. to ever occupy China, but China is certainly on its "best behavior" because of the sheer and long term supremacy of the U.S. military. I think it sums it up in the fact that China could not even take a "renegade" province off of Xiaman, and a province of one third the size to the Philippine Island of Luzon at that. Why? Because they are armed with American technology, which is again, far, far, far, far, far superior.
Now, I would like to say I love the Chinese culture and have lived, studied, and traveled throughout China most of my life. I have a great respect for the industrious nature of the Chinese people, and am always happy to see Chinese immigrants moving to America. But your suggestions in this thread are pure fantasy.
Also, for the prospects of a China superpower: it will be many, many, many, many years off if ever. China is going to struggle with demographics. The population is, on average, very old in China, and due to the one child policy of several decades, there will be an enormous burden on the young in China to support the old. This will last at least three generations. And China's wealth is overwhelmingly concentrated in the cities, whereas the majority of China's population is located in the more rural, and very, very poor areas of the agrarian region. Also, China's rising economy is only due to something called "asset priced inflation". Essentially, China's measured economy includes the hordes of foreign investment in the region, which actually siphons off a great deal of revenue. So while I think it may be possible in a couple centuries, China is nowhere near the status of even a regional power yet. Japan would have a fairly easy time containing Chinese aggression if it just put a few percent of its GDP into its military. And India also poses a very real threat.
Again, I like China, and I understand Nationalism on your part Fayadi, but fiction is fiction and facts are facts.
~Chris
Fayadi
Technocrat
Superpower does not means must be great in military,How bout the economy?China does not seems to spend their money on military because they want to invest the money on other things.Spending now will result with no gains.The government is smart,only if China become very rich one day they will start spending massive military cost.Chinese military budget is low yet US still find Chinese Miltary a threat,what if the budget (inclluding research)is the same with US, US will be afraid...China is more money wise!US already the present superpower of the world yet it still keep arming and modernising their weapons , is this some kind of greedy ?
The US have this selfish thinking,if other country become superpower or has been arming their weapons they think it will be a threat global security not to mention US itself is already the biggest military budget spender,Others cannot but US itself can ,is this somekind of selfish (No offense this is fact)altitude?
The US have this selfish thinking,if other country become superpower or has been arming their weapons they think it will be a threat global security not to mention US itself is already the biggest military budget spender,Others cannot but US itself can ,is this somekind of selfish (No offense this is fact)altitude?
sonorakitch
Overseas hunter
(No offense this is fact)
This is probably where I should have stopped. But, of course, it was at the end
Your right: economically as well. And in fact, China's boom, like I discussed before, is due to foreign investment. And this foreign investment is very unstable. Your economy will see the effects of the slowdown here, and just as fast as it grew it will fall. It happend to Japan. It happend in the great depression to America. When our Christmas rolls around and consumers spend less on toys and clothes, China's economy will be severely strained. And not mention the demographic problem I introduced, which you did not respond too.
I find China an interesting place; parts are developing very well (like Pudong...quite impressive), but the great majority of the nation is still on par with most African nations; I have seen it from a very non-objectives viewpoint. I traveled to China to learn about it, because I am very interested in economics, and I must say I was much more impressed with India. China lacks one key ingredient to ever becoming strong, and that is a freedom-oriented government and civilian participation.
And also, we actually don't find your military a threat. It is the mentality we hear from people like yourself that is considered the threat. We wish no war with your nation, but as a professor of economics once stated when I took his class some years ago: "China is comparable to an overpopulated ant colony. Millions of drones serving one queen". Whether or not you object to this, it doesn't matter. If you ride the train from Shanghai to Chongqinq, you will see this too. I just hope China can embrace democracy, and only then, along with a couple of centuries, does China stand a chance of becoming a real and genuine military or economic threat to the United States.
"China is more money wise!"--And I have of course no idea how you arrived at this statement.
" The government is smart"--I think you should question this every day until you pass on. It would benefit you and your people.
"US will be afraid"--For some reason, I found this statement come from many Chinese when I was there. I don't really understand this one. If your sole purpose is to make us afraid, does that really make any tangible sense?
~Chris
PS.- I think yet another factor in the birth of China as the leading superpower would be the fall of the U.S. from internal forces. Looking back at history, for one superpower to rise takes another to fall. Consider Britain's fall because of WWII and America's subsequent rise. And yet again, the Soviet's fall and Americas rise to sole-superpower. And it will be a very long time before America succumbs to these crumbling forces.
This is probably where I should have stopped. But, of course, it was at the end
Your right: economically as well. And in fact, China's boom, like I discussed before, is due to foreign investment. And this foreign investment is very unstable. Your economy will see the effects of the slowdown here, and just as fast as it grew it will fall. It happend to Japan. It happend in the great depression to America. When our Christmas rolls around and consumers spend less on toys and clothes, China's economy will be severely strained. And not mention the demographic problem I introduced, which you did not respond too.
I find China an interesting place; parts are developing very well (like Pudong...quite impressive), but the great majority of the nation is still on par with most African nations; I have seen it from a very non-objectives viewpoint. I traveled to China to learn about it, because I am very interested in economics, and I must say I was much more impressed with India. China lacks one key ingredient to ever becoming strong, and that is a freedom-oriented government and civilian participation.
And also, we actually don't find your military a threat. It is the mentality we hear from people like yourself that is considered the threat. We wish no war with your nation, but as a professor of economics once stated when I took his class some years ago: "China is comparable to an overpopulated ant colony. Millions of drones serving one queen". Whether or not you object to this, it doesn't matter. If you ride the train from Shanghai to Chongqinq, you will see this too. I just hope China can embrace democracy, and only then, along with a couple of centuries, does China stand a chance of becoming a real and genuine military or economic threat to the United States.
"China is more money wise!"--And I have of course no idea how you arrived at this statement.
" The government is smart"--I think you should question this every day until you pass on. It would benefit you and your people.
"US will be afraid"--For some reason, I found this statement come from many Chinese when I was there. I don't really understand this one. If your sole purpose is to make us afraid, does that really make any tangible sense?
~Chris
PS.- I think yet another factor in the birth of China as the leading superpower would be the fall of the U.S. from internal forces. Looking back at history, for one superpower to rise takes another to fall. Consider Britain's fall because of WWII and America's subsequent rise. And yet again, the Soviet's fall and Americas rise to sole-superpower. And it will be a very long time before America succumbs to these crumbling forces.
I'll have to agree with Simon and Sonorakitch here. China is at least 50 yrs to centuries fr ever catching up with the USA and the West, generally. Their arguments are quite sound, based on facts known at this moment.
What I find disturbing is at the other end of the spectrum - the demonising of China as the next Great Threat to US interests just a short while ago. President Bush specifically defined China as a "strategic competitor". Republican hawks in the House and Senate were calling for curbs on China, selling of advanced military equipment to Taiwan to deal with the Chinese "threat" and so on.
And every time, the Chinese military got an increase in their budget, "analysts" and others began decrying that China was militarising and a growing threat to world peace when China was merely trying to modernise its military at least up to the minimal standards in the West.
However lately such critisms have been muted cos of the terrorist war but no doubt, would return once that war is over. Hopefully, ppl will remember what was posted here about China's inability to become a superpower of any sort in the near future, before jumping on the "Red Chinese Threat to Take Over the World" bandwagon again ......
What I find disturbing is at the other end of the spectrum - the demonising of China as the next Great Threat to US interests just a short while ago. President Bush specifically defined China as a "strategic competitor". Republican hawks in the House and Senate were calling for curbs on China, selling of advanced military equipment to Taiwan to deal with the Chinese "threat" and so on.
And every time, the Chinese military got an increase in their budget, "analysts" and others began decrying that China was militarising and a growing threat to world peace when China was merely trying to modernise its military at least up to the minimal standards in the West.
However lately such critisms have been muted cos of the terrorist war but no doubt, would return once that war is over. Hopefully, ppl will remember what was posted here about China's inability to become a superpower of any sort in the near future, before jumping on the "Red Chinese Threat to Take Over the World" bandwagon again ......
Fayadi
Technocrat
I began to think analyst are short sighted, a threat, I think clever people wont jump into conclusion China was a threat,None of the European Countries considered China as a threat!Perharps Europeans are the ones who gave the western good example!It is a wonder when Europe and US have different views on China.
Fayadi
Technocrat
"When China move,it will move the world"Napeleon
Here is an information from People's Daily about China on fastest plane(NON ROCKET) on Earth!Every Chinese MUST BE PROUD OF THEIR RACE!
"China Researching Ultra-Supersonic Aviation
China's conceptual research on ultra-supersonic aviation will hopefully catch up with advanced international levels soon, Zhuang Fenggan, academician at the Chinese Academy of Sciences and a prestigious aerodynamics expert, revealed on September 15. He predicted that China will be able to manufacture such aircraft 10 to 15 years from now, according to the latest Beijing Review.
Zhuang made the remarks at the annual academic conference involving the Chinese Association of Sciences. Ultra-supersonic aviation refers to aircraft with a cruise speed exceeding five times that of the velocity of sound, or more than 1.7 km per second. Currently, the fastest aircraft travels at a speed three times the velocity of sound. According to calculations, an ultra-supersonic aircraft is able to circle the globe in less than seven hours.
Zhuang, who has been researching aerodynamic applications in aerospace technology for many years, pointed out that ultra-supersonic aviation is the major direction of development for aviation and aerospace technology in the 21st century. Given its strategic importance in the military, and in politics and economies, many countries, including the United States, Russia, France, Germany, Japan and India, have been actively conducting research on such aircraft. So far, however, not a single country has manufactured any ultra-supersonic aircraft for practical use.
Financed by the National Foundation of Natural Sciences and other organizations, basic research on ultra-supersonic aircraft in China is underway. Although the country started fairly late, it has already made significant progress in key technologies and trial flight simulations."
Here is an information from People's Daily about China on fastest plane(NON ROCKET) on Earth!Every Chinese MUST BE PROUD OF THEIR RACE!
"China Researching Ultra-Supersonic Aviation
China's conceptual research on ultra-supersonic aviation will hopefully catch up with advanced international levels soon, Zhuang Fenggan, academician at the Chinese Academy of Sciences and a prestigious aerodynamics expert, revealed on September 15. He predicted that China will be able to manufacture such aircraft 10 to 15 years from now, according to the latest Beijing Review.
Zhuang made the remarks at the annual academic conference involving the Chinese Association of Sciences. Ultra-supersonic aviation refers to aircraft with a cruise speed exceeding five times that of the velocity of sound, or more than 1.7 km per second. Currently, the fastest aircraft travels at a speed three times the velocity of sound. According to calculations, an ultra-supersonic aircraft is able to circle the globe in less than seven hours.
Zhuang, who has been researching aerodynamic applications in aerospace technology for many years, pointed out that ultra-supersonic aviation is the major direction of development for aviation and aerospace technology in the 21st century. Given its strategic importance in the military, and in politics and economies, many countries, including the United States, Russia, France, Germany, Japan and India, have been actively conducting research on such aircraft. So far, however, not a single country has manufactured any ultra-supersonic aircraft for practical use.
Financed by the National Foundation of Natural Sciences and other organizations, basic research on ultra-supersonic aircraft in China is underway. Although the country started fairly late, it has already made significant progress in key technologies and trial flight simulations."
TrailblazingScot
I was kittenOFchaos
A computer, fridge, freezer, tv, cooker, telephone and power shower in every house is more important.
The correct quote shld be, "China is a sleeping giant. Disturb her and the world shall tremble."
And I agree with KoC that material well-being and mass education for the ppl are more important in the long-run; not unless China is trying to go the way of the Soviets. Military eq will always become obsolete some day; but economic develpoment will stay. I think China's leaders realize this too. That's why they are pushing so hard for economic development even if it's at the cost of military modernization.
Se Acabo
Chieftain
As long as both US and china have nukes, then a war would only result in the destruktion of both countries...
So whats the point in who has the best airforce and army, when both powers have nukes?
So whats the point in who has the best airforce and army, when both powers have nukes?
National pride it seems is very important to some ppl.... And usually it can take any form - bigger better cities, scientific achievements, economic size and yes, even military prowess. It's a natural human condition esp in the case of the younger ones. 
Se Acabo
Chieftain
By the way.
Does superpower mean super country?
I mean that just because US is a super power, they are still not the best country in the world.
They might be the richest, but many of them are poor!
They almost have no welfare and they make too much polution...
Does superpower mean super country?
I mean that just because US is a super power, they are still not the best country in the world.
They might be the richest, but many of them are poor!
They almost have no welfare and they make too much polution...
joespaniel
Unescorted Settler
Lets hope the US and China can iron out their differences in the coming years. Our two countries should be allies in an ever growing dangerous world of terrorism.
I, for one, do not think it is "American" to dictate Chinese domestic policy, they must sort out for themselves what government they want, and economic policy within China.
On Taiwan, let the Taiwanese decide if they want to unify. If not, China should drop it once and for all.
China needs the US and the US needs China. Its all about markets, and thats fine with me. If they can boost the standard of living of their people while we do the same, fantastic.
I, for one, do not think it is "American" to dictate Chinese domestic policy, they must sort out for themselves what government they want, and economic policy within China.
On Taiwan, let the Taiwanese decide if they want to unify. If not, China should drop it once and for all.
China needs the US and the US needs China. Its all about markets, and thats fine with me. If they can boost the standard of living of their people while we do the same, fantastic.
brandon749
Warlord
Hey Fayadi, guess what, Firaxis screwed up. The F-15 is not our best fighter. The USAF classifies it as "obsolete."
brandon749
Warlord
Originally posted by Fayadi
Just wanna tell u that,China is developing Hyper Sonic Plane ,thats the fastest aeroplane in the world (around 7000 over km/h) and they are going to be ready by 10-15 years.No other country has yet to achieve that!
Gee Fayadi, if you're correct then China is yet to achieve that too
Be ready in 10-15 years eh, wow, its not even in "beta testing"
brandon749
Warlord
Originally posted by joespaniel
Fayadi - I hate to crush your little fantasies, but the US already has a "super-plane" like you keep going on about. It actualy flies outside the atmosphere of the planet, and goes somewhere in the neighborhood of mach 15.Its been around for years.
You keep showing pictures of Russian designed aircraft...
Im not trolling you, but, lets face it, the chinese military is more on par with Iraq than the US. China may become a "regional" superpower, and only if it starts to cooperate more with Japan, S. Korea and other developed Asian states.
Taiwan will never become a part of China until the Taiwanese decide to themselves, if ever. I guarantee that.
Joe Spaniel, you took the words right out of my head...right on
Hey Fayadi, the average annual income in china is between 2-6 thousand. In the United States its about 20 thousand and that counts retired people, and other non working people.
Fayadi, get over you're super-plane. The ex-red Russians have forgotten more than everyone in china knows about aeronautical physics.
brandon749
Warlord
You're graph is wrong. Know how I know? Because in the 70's the Russians had about the same share in world economy as the EU and the US had dramatically more market share! I don't trust your sources or your "white press"
And remember, these are speculative forecasts! They're not the Word of the One Holy God! Obviously your inherent "superior intelligence" which you said all Chinese have (see the old Best Civ thread) hasn't made up for an apparently failing Chinese education system as you have no critical thinking/reading skills.
brandon749
Warlord
The Chinese are oppressing the Taiwanese. Several years ago, before moving across the country, one of my best friends was Taiwanese (his parents were natives). His family had to flee!
John Locke, an English Social Contract theorist, argues that governments attain their just power from the consent of the governed--a concept echoed in US government tradition. The Taiwanese who are staring down the barrel of a Chinese gun are quivering while pondering declaring independance, which they certainly would have already done if the Chinese weren't so imperialist! The Red Chinese governement doesn't have the consent of the Taiwanese. Therefore the Chinese gov. has no just claim to governance.
Similar threads
- Locked
- Poll