Timur vs. China

[Dida]

The greater conqueror Timur died on his way to make war with China. What would have happened had he lived, could China defend itself against Timur's army?

 

[LightSpectra]

Considering he was 70 years old at the time (modern equivalent of like 100), this contrafactual is a little silly.

 

[Kadazzle]

China is so vast, that during the campaign Timur would've died anyways, but I believe that Ming China would have been able to hold off Timur, but not the Northern Yuan Dynasty (Who would have helped Timur in a conquest of China). There is no way China could have fought a two-front war. China may have had the people, but early in the Ming Dynasty China wasn't in the economical situation to fight a war with Timur and the Northern Yuan Dynasty. China may have had the people to fight the war, but with the lack of equipment and lack of food (Timur would've cut off food and supplies) China would've lost a war.

 

[Knight-Dragon]

China is so vast, that during the campaign Timur would've died anyways, but I believe that Ming China would have been able to hold off Timur, but not the Northern Yuan Dynasty (Who would have helped Timur in a conquest of China). There is no way China could have fought a two-front war. China may have had the people, but early in the Ming Dynasty China wasn't in the economical situation to fight a war with Timur and the Northern Yuan Dynasty. China may have had the people to fight the war, but with the lack of equipment and lack of food (Timur would've cut off food and supplies) China would've lost a war.

Early Ming was actually very militaristic and had a largish reserve of toughened and experienced soldiers from the 20 years or so period of anarchic civil wars and uprisings against the last of the Yuan. The Yuan were pretty much finished and weren't a factor. The Hongwu and Yongle emperors of this era were military commanders with actual field experience and the generals who helped Zhu Yuanzhang to power were mostly still around.

Remember that in this period, China actually conquered and subdued the province of Yunnan in the south (there's a strong Mongol fief there), southern Manchuria, repeatedly launched cavalry expeditions into the Mongol steppes and sent out the naval expeditions. The Chinese emperors of this period were broad-minded and confident enough that they even had Mongol troops amongst their forces.

Timur would have a tough time cracking early Ming China, esp considering how far they would be operating from their home territory.

Mid-to-late Ming China was of course another story.

 

[Dida]

I believe Timur's ill-fated invasion of China took place during the rule of Yongle Emperor. Northern Yuan was largely finished about 15 years earlier when Lanyu destroyed its last remnants. During Yongle's rule, he personally led five expeditions into Mongolian steppe, each time with a force of half-million strong. During the same time Yongle's forces annexed Vietnam and his massive fleets toured the world's oceans. 30 years for Yongle took the throne Ming general Xuda razed Mongolian capital Karakorum to the ground and pursued the retreating Mongolians north across the Yablonovy Mountains into the modern Siberian region of Transbaikalia—farther north than any previous Chinese army had penetrated. It looks like China during this time could certainly fight both Timur and what's left of Northern Yuan at the same time.

 

[Tee Kay]

China would have likely beaten back Timur. The early Ming under Zhu Yuanzhang and Yongle was very strong, although the war would be prolonged. At the same time the Chinese would also have to fight the northern Yuan and possibly Vietnam.

Another interesting point is what would war with and a victory over the Timurids meant for Ming China? Would the Mings pursue the Timurids into Central Asia and reoccupy Xinjiang? Would China still become isolationist?

 

[Knight-Dragon]

I don't think the possible partial reoccupation of Turkestan would last.

The Mongol tribes would become active again later on, and the Ming would pull back from their steppe strongholds to the Great Wall. They would probably pull back fr Turkestan at this point.

The Silk Road wasn't as important a trade route in the 14th century, compared with the sea route thru Nanyang. Not as valid an economic reason to maintain a hold over Central Asia.

 

[plarq]

A counter invasion of Ming Dynasty into Central Asia was just too much a logistic disaster. The Chinese foot soldiers could hold Southern Manchuria and keep the Koreans and Manchus in bay, the Ming cavalry could pillage Mongolia and destroy the remnant of Yuan Dynasty, however, the economy of early Ming is not very promising, heavy inflation, frontier uprisings, peasant revolt, all could take the Ming offensive off.

Also, the desert terrain would be terrible for Ming army to march, especially when much of its army tied in equally bad terrain: Manchuria marsh, Vietnam and Yunnan jungle...