Training game emphasizing trading - Emperor

[peacemonger]

With good planning I believe Japan could be a reasonably short war. I'd still probably take a few turns to rush/rebuild our military. If we upgrade trebs to cannons and move them to the front I think perhaps we can wage with relatively minimal losses, keeping WW down. (Get our army up there too of course. It was frustrating having an army that couldn't fit on the boats for the Grecian war -- we will have Galleons for the next time now.) Our gpt can take having to direct some coin to luxury for a while, and we can always get furs from Russia (until it's time to boot her remaining footholds off our continent.)

 

[Bede]

Good job pulling the chestnuts out of the fire.

Now for some planning....

Taking Japan off the count will lower future technology costs, to our and the Greek's benefit. But they are not much of a trading partner and probably won't be.

I've been leaning towards Domination as the victory goal once it became apparent we were dealing with a "runaway". If the technology race had a little more balance then Space would have been an option. Diplomatic is probably out and it's late to start a cultural push.



Roster check:
plarq - up?
oopsy - if plarq can't?
Bede - will fill in
whomp
dl123654
peacemonger

 

[Rik Meleet]

However, when I checked market for ToG it looked like Spain had just picked up Magnetism. It’s price at 3rd is 95gpt, but by doing it as a renegotiation of Peace with Spain along with renegotiation of our iron for 27gpt trade, I can get Magnetism for 24gpt plus iron. Ok, done. Russia is the only partner now where we can get ToG for Magnetism, so that will go into her peace deal along with whatever else we can finagle. She won’t give ToG plus Econ without us sweetening the pot, but I bet we can get that from William pretty easily. So just ToG and her cash of 53g. Now, William. Actually, he’s got nothing we need right now – Econ is not worth this trade -- and I expect we will have the leverage with him for a bit. So, that will wait.

1: What do we want ?
Techs !! We need them to catch up. And we want to become Industrial.

2: peacemongers trade.
He renegotiated peace with Spain to obtain Magnetism from Spain for Iron and used it in the peacetreaty to obtain Russia's ToG. Excellent, but risky. If Spain asked an arm and a leg for it we would have to pay up or loose our reputation as we still had deals with them. In trading you want to be friendly, not threatening. But it worked.

Then Peace + ToG (+53 gold) from Russia for peace and Magnetism. This throws Russia and us into the IA.

He then stopped trading.

3: The Timing.
Was it the right moment to trade? I guess so; Russia was on the virge of gaining the upper hand in the war, so stopping that was a good call.

4: The trading partner.
Well chosen. Not that hard as it was the only choice.

Rik's conclusion

A very daring renegotiation of peace with Spain. But well performed.
However, there was a lot more to be gained in this turn. Greece, Spain, Carthago and Russia are Industrial and Greece and Russia (scientific trait) already have IA techs.

Greece - Up on us: Music Theory & Democracy & Economics & Steam.
Russia - Up on us: Music Theory & Democracy & Economics & Medicine.
Spain - Up on us: Music Theory & Democracy & Economics.

So there is a potential Steam-Medicine 2fer1 for us. And even if it doesn't work out; Steam is urgently needed. Before we even try, we look at the other civs. Korea (scientific) is far down. Japan as well. Netherlands has Music + Economics up on us and is down ToG and Mag. There is thus a trad opportunity.

Use ToG and Mag to Obtain Esonomics + Music Theory + WM + 5 gold from Willy.

We can now use an unorthodox technique; Gifting scientific AI's into a new age to hope they get a tradable tech or at least reduce the price on other techs.

Sell Chem to Korea for 15 gold + 2 workers.
Gift Korea Physics + Metallurgy
Gift Korea ToG + MAg -> Korea is Industrial and gets Nationalism. It's too expensive to buy, so no 3fer1 (Nationalism is very expensive for the AI).

That leaves a last resort; buying Steam from Greece - we need it. Incense + 3596 gold + 230 got is what he asks.
Sell Steam to Spain for Democracy + WM + 27 gpt.

No more trades.

End situation: Russia has Medicin up on us, but lacks Steam. Korea has Nationalism up on us, but lacks all optional MA techs and Steam. We have a monopoly on coal (ok the other sources are in MA Japan) and we are nearly bankrupt (0 gold, +173 gpt). But that will change soon once we get our Railroads going.

Peacemongers trade was ok, but if you like taking risks, there was more into it. And Railroads are just beautiful to have.

 

[peacemonger]

Woah. That's a great analysis, Rik. I'm disappointed I missed seeing (checking for ) the IA techs until the following turn, when Russia and Greece had already swapped. But even if I had, I probably would have been too shy to use up our whole bank for Steam and would not have thought to gift Korea into the IA.

A question though -- at that point, why not go farther and sell Steam to Russia for Medicine and then Medicine to Greece to try to recapture some coin?

It cannot be said enough, you are bringing tons of learning to this game! Thank you.

 

[Rik Meleet]

A question though -- at that point, why not go farther and sell Steam to Russia for Medicine and then Medicine to Greece to try to recapture some coin?

- I did check it, but it turned out that If we purchase Steam, Russia wouldn't give up Medicine for it. And if we'd bought Medicine, we couldn't get rails.

I even renegotiated peace with Korea and threatened them to -just- purchase Nationalism, but with that I couldn't get Steam nor Medicine.

And don't be shy; our money exists for the sole purpose of using it to get techs, and an occasional cashrush. I'd rather win with 0 gold and 0 gpt then loose with 10k gold and +500 gpt.

 

[Bede]

Roster check:

oopsy - can you play?
Bede - will fill in
whomp
dl123654
peacemonger
plarq - skipped

 

[peacemonger]

Whoever picks up next, let's take a hard look at how we can acquire Steam and maximize it's trading value. (I feel we're a bit spoiled now knowing we have the coal monopoly, but it does seem to make Steam a real strong priority -- first build, an RR network to get troops straight to the Japan front, then concentrate on maxing our mined shields in our core.) It should actually be cheaper now at 3rd if we want a straight purchase. I don't know if it's worth the risk of a steal, as we are just getting over the WW. Then again it would certainly be leverage to get Spain and Netherlands in on an alliance if, say, our steal from Greece fails (leading to war) and we end up buying from Russia.

 

[Whomp]

William is a layup. Gifting into the next age makes great sense for it creates more trade opportunities, cheaper techs and the timing is right as we move to the next age. I would do the gifting and see if we can get a better price.
Steam is IMO the most important tech. Even if we didn't have coal we would take it.

We need the income and free movement for Toku. Our workers are going to be mighty busy between remining and railing. Should we be focused on popping more workers and then add them back into cities later?

The only question I have is do we really need Demo? If we are having horrible WW in republic it would be worse in Demo.

Can we make any gpt trades with Izzie or are we completely trashed on gpt with her?

 

[peacemonger]

She's now amenable to gpt. I'm with you on Demo -- if we are going for domination we won't need it.

 

[Bede]

Roster check:

Bede - filling in, expect to see some commentary tomorrow
whomp - on deck
dl123654
peacemonger
plarq - skipped
oopsy - skipped

Not sure what's happening here, but with the disappearance of our sponsor, I am a little concerned. If you all want to invite a couple of compatibles to join us on our quest, please do so.

 

[Rik Meleet]

What Bede did in 1150 AD.

Buy Democracy from Russia for 1941 gold. Gift Korea into the IA, gets Medicine. Steal Nationalism from Greece for 2188g, then sell it
to Russia for Steam Power +116g, then get Medicine from Wang for Democracy
and another 932g. Then sell him Steam Power for the 932 I just paid.

1: What do we want ?
Steam especially and to catch up cheap if possible.

2: Bede's trade.
Bede first bought Democracy (good) from Russia (bad) for gold (bad). Bede gifted Korea into the IA (good) to either reduce the price of Steam or Nationalism or Medicine. He did that immediately; and thus reduced the price of the given techs ToG and Mag. Those techs could be used before that to obtain Economics and Democracy from the Dutch, who lacked ToG and Mag. ToG and Mag are worthless if given, and worth a lot more when first used in trading.

After Bede saw that Korea got Medicine he chose to steal -safely- Nationalism from Greece. Good choice. He used that to obtain Steam from Russia. Good choice. He then used Democracy + 932 gold to obtain Medicine from Korea. And then stopped (bad). He could have obtained Econmics and Free Artistry as well.

3: The Timing.
Was it the right moment to trade? Not sure. Frankly I don't think timing here was very important as if the tech leaders got more techs; fine (better techs to steal). If others caught up, fine (cheaper techs), if they didn't, fine (more gold). Waiting is good, but so is trading now.

4: The trading partner.
The Democracy purchase from Russia was bad. The Dutch also had Democracy and lacked ToG and Mag and were willing to give Democracy + Economics for it. That could save us 1941 gold.

I did this trade instead:

Chem to Korea for Music Theory + WM.
Horses + Mag + ToG to Dutch for Democracy + Economics + WM.
Then Gift Korea into IA. Korea gets Medicine.
Safely steal Nationalism from Greece for 2188 gold - it fails (thus ending the comparison) 2nd time it works, so I continue the comparison
(I continue because this is RNG related and 1 thing (like moving a worker, changing a buildqueue, not getting a WM in a deal or something like that could make this trade succeed first time; not a fair comparison to Bede's without it. Just Imagine our civ having 2188 gold more).
WM +Steam + 39 gold + 30 gpt for Nat to Russia.
Iron + Democracy + Economics to Korea for Medicine.
Medicine to Spain for Free Artistry + WM + 36 gpt + 110 gold.


Total: tech equality with Russia and Greece. 1125 gold (or 3313 if 1st steal succeeded); + 449 gpt.

Rik's conclusion
Well thought out; wrongly performed with gold payments instead of tech payments and stopped too soon; before obtaining Free Artistry and Economics and several gpt payments to us. Also wasting or reducing the trade value of ToG and Mag by gifting it before trading with it is not good. I saved 900+ gold on Democracy, only costing us horses instead.
OK, my steal went wrong first time and Bede's went right, but that is pure chance. Chance is not an element of the correct or best way to trade, so I filtered that out. I did test more and in some way Korea got Nationalism as their free tech. All chance and not important.

 

[Rik Meleet]

What Bede did in 1160 AD.

MilTrad has just shown up and can be had from Spain, Russia or Greece. Can
trade Nationalism to Spain and get the rest of the MA optionals. Russia and
Greece want money and coal.

1: What do we want ?
Mil trad. And Tech equality.

2: Bede's trade.
I assume he traded Nationalism to Spain for Mil trad + Economics + Free Artistry + WM.

3: The Timing.
Was it the right moment to trade? Yeah, why not? 3 techs, including a useful Mil Trad for Nationalism is always ok.

4: The trading partner.
Cheapest choice, no problem here.

Rik's conclusion
Easy trade and no alternatives really. I do notice with sadness that our gold and our gpt are very low compared to my 1150 trade ... only 1001 gold; +382 gpt. But that's your problem, not mine.

Just 1 request; If you ever Capture the Dutch city of "Holwerd", please rename it to "Nijmegen". It is just a village of 3000 inhabitants. I am glad to see "Lauwersoog" doesn't exist. That that "city" is in the game is a real shame; in 2005 AD it is a ferry-terminal of exactly 141 inhabitants...

 

[peacemonger]

hmmm......where's bede's post that rik's quoting from?

general question -- what are the stats on safe/careful/immediate steal success rates and how do you assess likelihood of war if it fails?

bede, your ability to fill in in SGs for all us laggards when needed is nice, and appreciated. how do you squeeze your RL in?

 

[Rik Meleet]

- Bede emailed it to me.

- Don't know the variables for that.

- Yeah, how do you do it ??

 

[dl123654]

general question -- what are the stats on safe/careful/immediate steal success rates and how do you assess likelihood of war if it fails?

Chance that we can steel techs is here.

Chance they declare war is here

 

[plarq]

Well,the one-month holiday is over,I'm back in civ.

 

[Whomp]

I'm new to the team plarq welcome back!

Hindsight here but Bede why did you chose to buy demo. vs trading for it with William? It didn't seem to be a tech we even needed other than for trade purposes. It seemed like the other trades would have fallen into to place except possibly the steal. Nationalism was the wild card it seems. Maybe even gpt for our horses which we want William to have vs Greece.

Good news is we have cav and rails!! Quite a powerful combo. We should still keep some elite knights around for the low lying, tasty japanese "nashis".

O/T
Nijmegen is our next conquered city Rik! I think Bede needs a town name too. Brother B...would you like a West Dennis or do you prefer a Nantucket?

 

[Rik Meleet]

Bede emailed me:

1220 AD.
We are now at war with Netherlands (Sneak Attack) and War Weariness is
starting to hurt in the bigger towns. I can buy Dyes from Greece but he
wants Horses and Incense plus cash and gpt.

I'm going to give him the Horses and a little more cash as I would rather he
not have a luxury good. The Horses will mean that Korea dies sooner, but I
think he will use his cash for upgrades and rushes and maybe he will lose
some of his economic muscle.

1: What do we want ?
We want to counter unhappyness. This can be done by either purchasing luxuries, increase the luxury slider or to hire specialists. The only luxury supplier out there is Greece. Buying dyes from Greece just doesn't feel good to me and I wouldn't have done it. I'd used the slider.

2: Bede's trade.
Bede bought Greek Dyes for Horses + cash. In my save that means Horses + 310 gold (our complete treasury) + 26 gpt. or Horses + 43 gpt.

I don't like it. We have an ongoing peacetreaty for 4 turns with Greece Paying cash is not smart in these circumstances. If Greece doesn't extend the peace (or we) we've lost our cash.
Also we are financially down; to 310 gold +152 gpt. We want to use other resources to obtain dyes (If we even want to obtain dyes).

3: The Timing.
Was it the right moment to trade? No, I don't think so. The war weariness we are suffering is because of lost cities and units. There are no more cities under threat and no more units (if Bede disbands a worker stack near New Sabratha) either. That means war weariness isn't going to increase a lot anymore now. And we can still counter it.
If we trade now, we can't include the Dyes in peace-renegotiations. And we might not even need it at all, if we can get Willy to the table soon.

Another -relatively unknown- part of lux-trading is how the asking price is determined. The bigger you are, the more you pay as you benefit the most of it. Reversely; if we allow Greece to grow bigger (by conquering Korea) he will have to pay more for luxes we sell to him, so the relative luxes price between his luxes to us and our luxes to him shifts towards our favor.

So: right time to trade ? no, because we don't need it really and if we wait we have better prospects.

4: The trading partner.
Greece is the only civ with extra luxes, so this is a non-question at the moment.

Rik's conclusion
Don't do it. We are too low on cash and gpt, we don't really need it and the future looks better for us than for Greece.

 

[Whomp]

Wow!!! Completely unexpected. I presume we sneak attacked or we'd have WH. Why oh why did he attack William? Wouldn't it have been more useful to have William get the horses so we could attack Alexander after renogotiating peace and we slip in and grab the dyes???
Our trainer has given us some serious things to contend with it seems.

 

[Bede]

Sorry for the delay in getting the log up here but my 'net access was down. Otherwise all would have posted last night.

I'm a little boxed in here: Russia and Greece have Steam power and I don't want to feed the Greek Monster anymore gold, no way, no how. Russia will take our gpt without quibbling, so I split the deal, 1000g +123 and refuse to sell her Incense.

Then I realize I may get a two-fer out of Alex with a steal on Nationalism (which we can't touch for all our money) and trade it to Russia for Steam, then look again at the map and see that I might as well give away our foothold on the other big landmass if I try that and fail.

Well, there goes that idea, time to think about gifting the Wang into the IA and see what he learns. If it's Steam or Nationalism I knock a bunch off the price of either and he needs the help anyway, seeing as how he is the current cat at the bottom of the dog-pile. Before doing that bulk up with Democracy for trade bait...which I can get from Cathrine the Great (Autocrat) for a mere 1941g. And the stoop decides to go to Medical School.

So here goes nuttin': Steal Nationalism from Greece for 2188g, then sell it to Russia for Steam Power +116g, then get Medicine from Wang for Democracy and another 932g. Then sell him Steam Power for the 932 I just paid.

Load up a wagon with coal and see what I can get for it: from the two wealthiest nations a mere 270g. Bah

And in 1160 Military Tradition appears in the hands of Greece, Russia and Spain.

First I buy a worker from Korea for 108g, then check prices for MilTrad. I'm going to leave it on the table for now.

And now Willie lands in our faces on the out islands.

Spend 1170 moving troops to the north for the Japanese war and railing in the north. Rush workers out of the towns in the south and set them to railing around Theveste. The rest of the worker force are pounding spikes in the near north. We are about to be hammered by the Dutch and probably the Russians, Three towns are at risk...and are probably gone.

The Dutch declare at New Hadremetum and the town is lost.

So with the Dutch sneak attacking us trade Nationalism to Spain for an Alliance aganst William and Military Tradition and the rest of the MA techs.

In 1180 New Oea and New Sabaratha fall to the Dutch.

In 1190 the Spanish build Newton's University.

Not much happens until 1220, building rails and military for the Japanese adventure. Then do a deal with Greece for Dyes in order to lower the luxury tax (we lost one when the Dutch attacked). Alex ships us Dyes for Horses, 177g and 33gpt. I could have reduced the gpt by including Incense but I wanted to keep that for tech negotiation and I didn't want to sell him luxury goods anyway. The deal works as I can reduce the luxury tax to 10% and the horses will let him build cavalry and reduce the Koreans.

Moved the Caravels north for support against the Japanese or Russians when the time comes. All of our military are in the north but with the rail net in place can reach anywhere on the island frictionless so should Willie land we can teach him a lesson.

The military net now extends from north to south so workers can focus on the terrain trimming that needs to be done around the new Palace and in the south.

The core lesson from Rik's examinating is pay attention to everybody. I had written off Willie, so mssed that he had Democracy on offer when I did the deal with Catherine.


Roster check:

whomp - up
plarq - on deck
dl123654
peacemonger
oopsy - skipped
Bede - played