Did some calcs, my start v. cav scout. My start is basically max food to pop five and build a settler. Heres the breakdown of capital only, and only from when they diverge, t21, to when cav scout hits pop 5
turn, pop, food, prod, com, notes
cav scout
21, 2, 7, 2, 10
22, 3, (5), 11(6), 11
23, 3, (5), 11(6), 11
24, 3, (5), 11(6), 11
25, 3, (3), 12(9), 11
26, 3, (3), 12(9), 11
27, 3, (3), 12(9), 11
28, 3, (3), 12(9), 11
29, 3, (3), 12(9), 11
30, 3, (3), 12(9), 11, complete settler
31, 3, 9, 2, 10, settler ready
32, 3, 9, 2, 10
33, 3, 9, 2, 10
34, 4, 7, 5, 11
35, 4, 7, 5, 13
36, 4, 7, 5, 13
37, 5, (6) 15(9), 14, begin worker
totals, 55pop, 55

, 143

, 190
Pop 5 start
21, 2, 8, 2, 9
22, 3, 9, 2, 10
23, 3, 9, 2, 10
24, 3, 9, 2, 10
25, 4, 10, 2, 11
26, 4, 10, 2, 11
27, 5, (9), 14(5), 12
28, 5, (9), 14(5), 12
29, 5, (9), 14(5), 12
30, 5, (9), 14(5), 12
31, 5, (6), 15(9), 12
32, 5, (6), 15(9), 12, worker ready
33, 5, (6), 15(9), 12, complete settler
34, 5, (6), 15(9), 12, settler ready
35, 5, (6), 15(9), 12
36, 5, (6), 15(9), 12
37, 5, (6), 15(9), 12, 3/4 of the way done w/ worker
totals, 74pop, 55

, 173

, 193
again, this doesn't include any numbers from the second city, cav scout's southern city built t33, eastern t34 where pop 5 start has southern t35 eastern t37. In cav scout's the worker is roading all the way through t37 to keep from unhealth while pop 5 is free from t32. If he starts a cottage he finishes t38 and is only 3 worked cottage turns behind cav scout, but I might rather chop the forest on the city square in the south if we go there or start roading east or something else (by t30 we'll be much more informed)
Also, more remainders with cav scout. starting a settler at pop 3 has like 6 food in the bin, while pop 5 gets there with no remainder food and exactly finishes a warrior, and settler finishes with only one hammer extra.
city 2 is also neglected as the worker is busy w/ cav scout till t38, where pop 5 can get 14 extra hammers or whatever with the chop is and a road for the souther city by t38, most of the road in for the eastern city by then, or a cottage by t38. and It has the 2nd worker ready at t38 while cav scout is only one turn in.
Like i said before, growth is king at this point, cottages are for later