The question this thread asks is a bit distorted I think, but the ultimate question of who is responsible for the outbreak of the First World War is one that will be asked continuously so long as civilization exists, and the answers will not be the same each time. History is a process of examination, and our veiw of the First World War - 91 years after the fact; indeed today is the 91st anniversary of the official outbreak of that war - will always change as our view of ourselves and the outcomes of that war change. We are already aware of some of the consequences of the war, 91 years on, that those in 1918 did not know and in some cases could not have guessed. This changes how we see these events.
I've read through this thread - always love to read - but I'll just give a broad response, with one exception:
Belgium lost its neutrality in the moment they gave the French a free way to Belgium but denying the same for the Germans. That was a de facto declaration of war on Germany, at least the giving up of neutrality. This action led to the British decalration of war on Germany.
This is, I'm afraid, not true. The Belgians were not dumb enough in 1914 to allow one side and not the other onto their territory, a sure
casus belli. Even worse, even the German propaganda you are trying to rely on did not claim as much. The German ultimatum of 02. August (
full text available here) only claimed that Berlin somehow knew French troops were planning on invading Germany through Belgium, and that Belgium should therefore allow German troops free transit to pre-emptively invade France. The only other mention of any French invasion through Belgium is in the Belgian response to Germany:
Moreover, if, contrary to our expectation, Belgian neutrality should be violated by France, Belgium intends to fulfil her international obligations and the Belgian army would offer the most vigorous resistance to the invader.
Moreover, France had, in order to tip the extremely delicate balance of "doves" and "hawks" in the British cabinet, withdrawn the French army 10 kilometers from the German and Belgian frontiers, to ensure that no incident could be misconstrued as French aggression.
The German invasion of Belgium was completely and unequivocally unprovoked by anything the Belgians or French did, and was a product exclusively of German strategic design. To quote Clemenceau when he was once accosted by a German journalist as he left the Versailles palace in 1919 about what future generations will say about the Versailles Treaty, "I don't know what they will say, but I do know they won't say that Belgium invaded Germany." Apparently Clemenceau hadn't counted on the extraordinary historical fantasy world of Herr Adler.
Now, to the point:
There are several ways to look at "how the war started in 1914". My mini-article, quoted at the beginning of this thread thereabouts, takes a view of the actual events of June-July 1914. In that view, an objective look at those events points more towards Germany as the first power that committed to the idea of a world, or at least Continental war. Germany, plagued by its fears of Russian military growth and feeling isolated and constrained by the alliances of 1914, made a conscious decision on July 7 that it wanted this war, and now, because (so Berlin felt) time was not on its side and only now was German militrary strength ready enough to face-off with Russia before St. Petersburg could fully mobilize its considerable military power, and then turn westwards for a final showdown with France. The Kaiser did waver a bit in the week prior to 28. July - the actual outbreak of hostilities - but overall he and the German establishment had become convinced that now was as good as ever.
This reading of the events is quite damning for the Germans, but if we take a step back to look at the larger circumstances that helped create the environment Berlin found itself making those crucial decisions in, we see that there is more to learn. To begin with, I'll quote none other than the Rowan Atkinson TV character "Blackadder", from the last show of the 4th season - set in the British trenches of World War I:
First:
George: You know, that's the thing I don't really understand about you, Cap. You're a professional soldier, and yet, sometimes you sound as though you bally well haven't enjoyed soldiering at all.
Edmund: Well, you see, George, I did like it, back in the old days when the
prerequisite of a British campaign was that the enemy should under no circumstances carry guns -- even spears made us think twice. The kind of people we liked to fight were two feet tall and armed with dry grass.
George: Now, come off it, sir -- what about Mboto Gorge, for heaven's sake?
Edmund:Yes, that was a bit of a nasty one -- ten thousand Dwatushi warriors armed to the teeth with kiwi fruit and guava halves. After the battle,
instead of taking prisoners, we simply made a huge fruit salad. No, when I joined up, I never imagined anything as awful as this war. I'd had fifteen years of military experience, perfecting the art of ordering a pink gin and saying "Do you do it doggy-doggy?" in Swahili, and then suddenly four-and-a-half million heavily armed Germans hove into view. That was a shock, I can tell you.
and Second:
Baldrick: No, the thing is: The way I see it, these days there's a war on, right? and, ages ago, there wasn't a war on, right? So, there must have been a moment when there not being a war on went away, right? and there being a war on came along. So, what I want to know is: How did we get from the one case of affairs to the other case of affairs?
Edmund: Do you mean "How did the war start?"
Baldrick: Yeah.
George: The war started because of the vile Hun and his villainous empire-
building.
Edmund: George, the British Empire at present covers a quarter of the globe,
while the German Empire consists of a small sausage factory in Tangayika. I hardly think that we can be entirely absolved of blame on the imperialistic front.
(
Quotes taken from: this Blackadder fan site.)
The essence is that for as reprehensible as we today find German militarism, expansionism and naked imperialism in 1914, the reality of course is that the Germans were desperately trying to emulate the example of Western Europe, Britain in particular. 1914 was the tail end of the age of empires, when a few relatively small states in Western Europe controlled most of the world's land surface, and held the peoples of those lands in various forms and stages of captivity. Even innocent little Belgium was not so innocent; since the 1880s Belgium had been running an extremely cruel slave state in the Belgian Congo where native Africans were stripped from their native communities and forced to labor in extreme conditions in mines and on rubber polantations, with unknown millions (estimates range from 3 million to as many as 20 million African deaths) perishing in the process. The American poet Vachel Lindsay, quoted in the powerful monograph
King Leopold's Ghost (by Adam Hochschild), created the famous phrase:
Listen to the yell of Leopold's [II, King of Belgium] ghost, Burning in Hell for his hand-maimed host.
The Polish-English writer Jozef Korzenowski (known better by his English pseudonym, "Joseph Conrad") is said to have based his story "Heart of Darkness" on the Belgian Congo, which he had visited as a young sailor.
Mind you, none of this is to excuse Germany's behavior in 1914 - rather to explain that within a certain context, Germany was merely reaching for what Britain and France already had, and the means Germany used to achieve its empire were not significantly different than those of the Atlantic states. By 1914 the idea of benevolence had become popular in Britain and France as a rationalization for their continued rule over their empires, but they were empires nonetheless and had been achieved - think India in 1857, the Dutch East Indies in 1946 or Indochine in 1954 - in much the same way Wilhelm II intended to create his empire in 1914.
These are both valid ways of looking at the causes of the First World War, and I think it best that both (and others) also be understood. This is not relativism - for there is little doubt that a Western, allied victory in 1918 was far preferable for Europe than a German victory - but it is to understand that the conditions that brought about the war were born of more than just German dreams of grandeur, though those were terrible enough on their own.
re: Serbia: I think a critical look at Serbia is indeed important, and it is not wrong to (re-)evaluate Serbia's actions in 1914 within the context of the world we know today. It is not so much a witch-hunt or a need to assign blame, as much as a need to understand the conditions that brought about the war. Serbia in 1914 was driven by a powerful ideology of nationalism, and was determined to gather all the lands it viewed as historically Serbian under the control of the Serbian state. Using the analogy I just used for the West and Germany, certainly there is cause to see the Austro-Hungarian monarchy, which ruled historic Serbian lands and had a substantial ethnic Serbian population, as a contributor to Balkan tensions and problems, and indeed I go into them in my article but the formula of Serbia-deserving to rule all such lands and therefore being absolved of any responsibility for whatever consequences applied in its cause (through whatever means) is a little too automatic, and needs a re-think. The events of the 1990s in the dissolution of Yugoslavia are tied to these same beliefs and events, so it is important to understand them. I'm not blaming Serbia for World War I, as I make clear in my article that Serbia (or any other Balkan issue of the say) merely served as a pretext for the Great Powers' own desires and motivations, but on the other hand no honest historian can completely ignore the Austro-Serb conflict and how both sides played out their role in it.