WWI without Russia

Terxpahseyton

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In an effort to better understand the rough balance of power, I would like to ask the knowledgeable crowd occasionally present here, how the lack of an eastern front most likely would have effected the war.

Would it have probably have no significant effect at all,
or would it have probably prolonged the war resulting in a final peace treaty of more even terms,
or could it have given Germany the necessary additional strength to actually break through?

Or something totally different?

Blow away folks!
 
irrc, Schlieffen junior diverted more troops then required to defend Prussia - which could of been used in the "Schlieffen plan". If those extra troops were in the Western front - the plan may of worked and Paris coulda been captured. But the Russians mobilised quicker then anticipated and Schlieffen may have been right to move more troops to the East.
 
First of all, it should be understood that politically, World War I without an Eastern Front would make zero sense whatsoever. :p Never would've gotten to the West at all without Russia's and Germany's actions. (Mostly Russia's. :3)

Okay, so the whole August 1914 argument about troop numbers, space, supply limits, and so forth has been gone over exhaustively. The verdict of most modern historians, most notably the eminent Martin van Creveld, is that Germany in particular didn't have the space, logistical capacity, or facilities to deploy more troops than it did in the event, and probably deployed too many as it was. So as far as the initial 1914 campaign goes, it must be emphasized that more troops on the Western Front would not have improved Germany's chances of winning the war quickly. Instead, those troops would have helped strain German supply systems to the breaking point and beyond. Whether you believe - like me and the other Zuberfags - that the whole point was breakthrough on the Trouee des Charmes, perverted by contingency and the actions of von Kluck et al., or whether you believe - like many previous historians, especially Gerhard Ritter - that the German Army's so-called "Schlieffen" war plan was focused on a massive flank attack through Belgium, more troops than OHL originally had in the West would not have seriously improved German chances in either area.

More long-term, the problem in the West was simple. For the Germans, attriting the Allies was impossible. Wasn't going to happen. UK/France simply had more resources than Germany/Mitteleuropa did. So the problem was one of breakthrough and force density. What the Germans - and everybody else - had to do was achieve breakthrough and capitalize on it rapidly enough to keep the enemy from responding. More troops and resources - presumably freed up from the Eastern Front - is not going to change the calculus of the situation. On the First World War Western Front, the defending side always had better intelligence about any developing attack, always had superior mobility (the use of railroads, for instance, while any attacking forces had to be channeled across bombed-out no-man's land), always had the ability to easily communicate with fighting elements on the battlefield, and always was able to plug any holes and then counterattack. Adding more manpower to the attack is just going to add more grist for the mill - more targets for the machine guns - and even if they do grab a foothold in defending trenches, more men on the wrong side of no-man's land will just overload already-tenuous supply systems that much faster.

What the Germans needed on the Western Front, more than manpower, was a way to achieve operational surprise (possible with period tech, and accomplished in OTL) and tactical surprise (possible with period tech, and accomplished). So much was done by the infiltration tactics developed by Aleksey Brusilov, Oskar von Hutier, and so on and so forth. They needed to have a good way of maintaining communication with breakthrough elements, but they wouldn't have that until the radio was more portable and widespread, another two decades off. They also needed to have a way of maintaining supply connections with their forward elements, but I don't see how that's possible without tracked vehicles (in their infancy, and rarely used by the WWI Heer) or helicopters.

And, of course, that's without getting into those nitty little problems like "what winning the war would have actually entailed". So I would argue that more manpower and resources, freed up from the Ostfront, wouldn't have helped the Germans to reach a military decision in the West.
 
Obviously the Central Powers would have won since they came close with Russia's involement. However I also strongly agree that World War would never have started if Russia had not been involved since it was Russia's support for Serbia which caused what would otherwise been an Austria-Serbia war to become a world war.
 
First of all, it should be understood that politically, World War I without an Eastern Front would make zero sense whatsoever. :p Never would've gotten to the West at all without Russia's and Germany's actions. (Mostly Russia's. :3)

Okay, so the whole August 1914 argument about troop numbers, space, supply limits, and so forth has been gone over exhaustively. The verdict of most modern historians, most notably the eminent Martin van Creveld, is that Germany in particular didn't have the space, logistical capacity, or facilities to deploy more troops than it did in the event, and probably deployed too many as it was. So as far as the initial 1914 campaign goes, it must be emphasized that more troops on the Western Front would not have improved Germany's chances of winning the war quickly. Instead, those troops would have helped strain German supply systems to the breaking point and beyond. Whether you believe - like me and the other Zuberfags - that the whole point was breakthrough on the Trouee des Charmes, perverted by contingency and the actions of von Kluck et al., or whether you believe - like many previous historians, especially Gerhard Ritter - that the German Army's so-called "Schlieffen" war plan was focused on a massive flank attack through Belgium, more troops than OHL originally had in the West would not have seriously improved German chances in either area.

More long-term, the problem in the West was simple. For the Germans, attriting the Allies was impossible. Wasn't going to happen. UK/France simply had more resources than Germany/Mitteleuropa did. So the problem was one of breakthrough and force density. What the Germans - and everybody else - had to do was achieve breakthrough and capitalize on it rapidly enough to keep the enemy from responding. More troops and resources - presumably freed up from the Eastern Front - is not going to change the calculus of the situation. On the First World War Western Front, the defending side always had better intelligence about any developing attack, always had superior mobility (the use of railroads, for instance, while any attacking forces had to be channeled across bombed-out no-man's land), always had the ability to easily communicate with fighting elements on the battlefield, and always was able to plug any holes and then counterattack. Adding more manpower to the attack is just going to add more grist for the mill - more targets for the machine guns - and even if they do grab a foothold in defending trenches, more men on the wrong side of no-man's land will just overload already-tenuous supply systems that much faster.

What the Germans needed on the Western Front, more than manpower, was a way to achieve operational surprise (possible with period tech, and accomplished in OTL) and tactical surprise (possible with period tech, and accomplished). So much was done by the infiltration tactics developed by Aleksey Brusilov, Oskar von Hutier, and so on and so forth. They needed to have a good way of maintaining communication with breakthrough elements, but they wouldn't have that until the radio was more portable and widespread, another two decades off. They also needed to have a way of maintaining supply connections with their forward elements, but I don't see how that's possible without tracked vehicles (in their infancy, and rarely used by the WWI Heer) or helicopters.

And, of course, that's without getting into those nitty little problems like "what winning the war would have actually entailed". So I would argue that more manpower and resources, freed up from the Ostfront, wouldn't have helped the Germans to reach a military decision in the West.

Would the Austro-Hungarians fighting on the Italian front be in a similar situation? I would imagine so considering the relative tightness of the front and the fairly similar tactics to the French front. I'm not too familiar with their logistics on this front, though I can't imagine they were too good with the harsh terrain of the area.
 
Um, I guess? The Habsburgs never seriously conducted offensives there, save the Trentino spoiling attack in 1916 - which was, obviously, a spoiling attack - and the German-motivated joint attack at Caporetto, which was also supposed to be a limited offensive, but which got out of hand. Plus, the Habsburgs presumably also have to deal with Serbia and whatnot. I dunno. It's really a pretty odd question.
 
Obviously the Central Powers would have won since they came close with Russia's involement. However I also strongly agree that World War would never have started if Russia had not been involved since it was Russia's support for Serbia which caused what would otherwise been an Austria-Serbia war to become a world war.
Can't be that obvious if our resident expert on the period, Dachs, argues the complete obvious and backs it up.

My own opinion coincides with Dachs'. I would add the proviso, however, that a one-front war would make Germany's position far less hopeless on paper, which might just have increased the chances of a diplomatic solution in the early months of the war. At least until the inevitable US involvement. I find Italy's entry into the war more doubtful without Russian involvement, since they basically had to be promised half the goddamn Balkans to get them involved with it.
 
I used to believe in the inevitability of Entente victory on the Western Front due to the improbability of achieving a critical breakthrough prior to the exhaustion of Germany's home front, though the more I study the war, the more I realize that France was constantly on the verge of an economic and state collapse.

I think the war could've taken an entirely different turn if the Race to the Sea had gone a bit more favorably for the Germans, since that would've resulted in more French industry being occupied. Though that raises the question of what happens if France falls apart anyway -- the Central Powers had no way of countering British naval supremacy.
 
I used to believe in the inevitability of Entente victory on the Western Front due to the improbability of achieving a critical breakthrough prior to the exhaustion of Germany's home front, though the more I study the war, the more I realize that France was constantly on the verge of an economic and state collapse.

I think the war could've taken an entirely different turn if the Race to the Sea had gone a bit more favorably for the Germans, since that would've resulted in more French industry being occupied. Though that raises the question of what happens if France falls apart anyway -- the Central Powers had no way of countering British naval supremacy.
Yeah, that last sentence basically sums it all up. Even if the French army and state collapse, is the German military in a position to occupy France amid the ensuing chaos? What do they do about the UK? :dunno:
 
Yeah, that last sentence basically sums it all up. Even if the French army and state collapse, is the German military in a position to occupy France amid the ensuing chaos? What do they do about the UK? :dunno:
Any attempt at occupying France would be a nightmare for the Germans. The September Plan - which is probably the best idea we're going to get of what the Germans would have done had they actually broken France, even though it's pretty ridiculous - would be utterly unacceptable to the French people; unlike Alsace-Lorraine, which was nominally German in nationality, most of the land Germany would have annexed in this situation would be pretty much entirely French. They'd fight, if not with weapons then at least with work stoppages and general harassment.

None of this would actually be enough to stop the Germans from doing what they wanted, though logistically it would be a nightmare. The British blockade though, most definitely could and would stop the Germans from pursuing overseas colonies. I don't see the French Navy accepting such harsh surrender terms, meaning they'd likely back the British in this.

About the only hope Germany had of actually winning the war - if we assume 'winning' requires the defeat or capitulation of Britain - is that the British government would be so humiliated by this lightning defeat that it fell, to be replaced by something more conciliatory. You know better than I how close Britain was to civil war at this time. A swift defeat at Germany's hands might just drive them to it. Or, conversely, unite them for the first time in decades. Difficult to see. Always in motion the future is. Or in this case, the past. I'll stop quoting Yoda now.
 
Um, I guess? The Habsburgs never seriously conducted offensives there, save the Trentino spoiling attack in 1916 - which was, obviously, a spoiling attack - and the German-motivated joint attack at Caporetto, which was also supposed to be a limited offensive, but which got out of hand. Plus, the Habsburgs presumably also have to deal with Serbia and whatnot. I dunno. It's really a pretty odd question.

Well I suppose the real question I was asking, not framed within the hypothetical "What if there was no Eastern Front in WWI?" question, was would significantly more men have allowed for the Austrians and Germans to achieve more success on the Italian front (perhaps winning at Piave River or preventing that loss entirely through an even bigger victory at Caporetto), or would have what was basically a stalemate just continued? The reason for them having more men in my question wasn't really relevant.

Though, as you stated I suppose if the Austro-Hungarians really were not interested in any offensive beyond one that would limit Italy's ability to make offensives against them, having significantly more men would not really matter in the end anyways.
 
Yeah, that last sentence basically sums it all up. Even if the French army and state collapse, is the German military in a position to occupy France amid the ensuing chaos? What do they do about the UK? :dunno:

Why would Germany want to occupy France? If France collapses, hasn't Germany basically won the war?
 
Well I suppose the real question I was asking, not framed within the hypothetical "What if there was no Eastern Front in WWI?" question, was would significantly more men have allowed for the Austrians and Germans to achieve more success on the Italian front (perhaps winning at Piave River or preventing that loss entirely through an even bigger victory at Caporetto), or would have what was basically a stalemate just continued? The reason for them having more men in my question wasn't really relevant.

Though, as you stated I suppose if the Austro-Hungarians really were not interested in any offensive beyond one that would limit Italy's ability to make offensives against them, having significantly more men would not really matter in the end anyways.
Well, I mean, stripping the counterfactual of its political context - Russia magically disappearing but the rest of the war still happening as normal - makes sense on one level, because it "keeps things manageable", but on another level, it's totally insane, because without the Russians in the game the whole reason for almost all of the operations conducted on the Western Front and the Italian Front - assuming that even exists - changes dramatically.
Why would Germany want to occupy France? If France collapses, hasn't Germany basically won the war?
If France collapses, who's supposed to sign the peace treaty with Germany? It'd be as bad as 1870, when the Prussians won the war in five weeks and then couldn't find anybody to sign a treaty for seven months afterwards.
 
Yeah, that last sentence basically sums it all up. Even if the French army and state collapse, is the German military in a position to occupy France amid the ensuing chaos? What do they do about the UK?
The question becomes, what would it take for Britain to take a negotiated peace? If France was gone (either collapsed or capitulated), would the British have continued to fight? Germany's only method of attack would be u-boats, but the war would still be very costly for Britain, with little hope of success.
 
The question becomes, what would it take for Britain to take a negotiated peace? If France was gone (either collapsed or capitulated), would the British have continued to fight? Germany's only method of attack would be u-boats, but the war would still be very costly for Britain, with little hope of success.

I beg to differ -- the British Empire was almost entirely self-sufficient as an internal economy. On the other hand, Germany had been completely expelled from the Pacific and was barely holding on in Africa, meaning that a perpetual blockade would've been far costlier to the Central Powers than it would've been to the Entente. Only if Britain and Germany mutually agreed that the war was needlessly costly to the both of them would peace be achieved. But, y'know, that same thought would've prevented most of every war in history anyway.

Also, counterfactuals suck for the reason Dachs has been mentioning.
 
I beg to differ -- the British Empire was almost entirely self-sufficient as an internal economy. On the other hand, Germany had been completely expelled from the Pacific and was barely holding on in Africa, meaning that a perpetual blockade would've been far costlier to the Central Powers than it would've been to the Entente. Only if Britain and Germany mutually agreed that the war was needlessly costly to the both of them would peace be achieved. But, y'know, that same thought would've prevented most of every war in history anyway.
You are mistaken, I entirely agree with that, but I see don't see an issue with convincing Germany to take a negotiated peace (that is in their favour).
I don't know enough about the British political situation to say how likely they are to accept when they have no hope winning militarily, except by years of blockade, that would be weakened by decreased German expenditure on active combat operations and potential access to resources via Russia.
 
Would the Austro-Hungarians fighting on the Italian front be in a similar situation? I would imagine so considering the relative tightness of the front and the fairly similar tactics to the French front. I'm not too familiar with their logistics on this front, though I can't imagine they were too good with the harsh terrain of the area.
Likely their total number of troops would not have increased (even though Italy managed to funnel far more troops into the area), however, having more troops cycled into troop rotations, greater strategic reserves, etc. would have massively altered the Italian Theatre.
 
None of this would actually be enough to stop the Germans from doing what they wanted, though logistically it would be a nightmare. The British blockade though, most definitely could and would stop the Germans from pursuing overseas colonies. I don't see the French Navy accepting such harsh surrender terms, meaning they'd likely back the British in this.

Except that this is a WW1 with a neutral Russia, not WW2. The british blockade would not starve Germany in this scenario. And if France was knocked out then Germany could transfer troops to the Middle East and start killing the British Empire...
 
The british blockade would not starve Germany in this scenario
That depends on thigns such as Russia's position. Just because they are not at war or "neutral" doesn't mean they don't shut down the border.
As for the MiddleEast, that is the Ottoman Empire, not Britain.

But as was said, there is no discussion since without Russia, WWI does not begin in 1914. Without Russia, France doesn't involve itself. Without France as an enemy, Germany doesn't invade Belgium and Britain does not declare war. Without the Allies to bribe them or a good looking chance for victory, Italy doesn't join. Without anyone Allies in the Eastern Mediteraenian, teh Ottoman Empire sits on teh sidelines. Without needing to attack ships crossing the Atlantic or credit extended to Britain or any other motivation, the US stays neutral.
Hell, without Russian intervention, Germany likely wouldn't get involved at all.
The war of 1914 would be a smal regional fight between Austria-Hungar and Serbia
You make as well discuss WWI without Austria-Hungary or Germany or WWII without Germany and Japan.
 
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