Voted 3. i really dont see the World getting in a war any moment soon, unless a mad Russian or Mad USA president starts shooting missiles.
The reason is clear, to have the war qualified under a world War instead of just a regional war like WWI. At least 2 or more superpower will have to be at war against 1 another. Maybe it will be EU vs Russia, USA vs China/Russia or even EU vs USA etc.
But with both sides arming with nuclear weapons ready to strike another party down. i dont see that coming anytime sooner. Having 1 side building a 100% efficient missile defence shield will offset the balance.
The Situation in the Middle east is always there, the Sixday war, yomkippur were examples of how things goes bad. But unlike the Cold war proxy war. this time, the Russia were actually weaker , hence they could stomach an USA invasion of Iraq and Afganiztan. Else the invasion will never happened actually.
It takes a 2nd world power to keep the world at peace again. Thou once again sleeping under a tinder box. In a way, the past were so much better (depending on which side ur on)
The UN should be allow more power, not less.