Will Trump's Tariffs Trigger Another Recession?

Will Trump's Tariff's Trigger Another Recession?

  • Total voters
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Theov said:
Maybe those $500 billion dollar from the mineral deal that Zelensky is willing to sign will ease the pain a little for Americans.
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The $500bn is a value attached to the potential deal; an evaluation done by a man who was convicted for overinflating the value of assets. ;)
Also, the value of the deal/minerals in question, is not the same as the profit margin.
 
That would work for someone with no morals, like Musk (or Farage), but I doubt that Trump would do that repeatedly without at least appearing to extract some sort of concession from the other side, otherwise he'd just look weak and foolish (and even his followers might start to notice).
 
Ah well. Hope springs eternal, as they say.
 
Ajidica said:
It all depends on how long tariffs last. If they last much more than a couple months US companies will burn through their domestic stock and have to start paying tariffs. In the ag space, a lot of flour mills (which use higher protein wheat from Canada to make pizza and pasta) brought in a bunch of wheat before tariffs hit so they can sit on that for a few months playing the wait-and-see game.
I don't have the numbers handy, but huge amounts of the oats consumed in the US are grown in Canada because their climate is well suited to oats*. Besides the obvious like oatmeal and snack bars, a fairly significant consumer of high quality oats are racehorses.

This will they/wont they with tariffs is long term bad for the economy. Just choose one and business can plan around it. It also hurting US ag exports even for unaffected countries right now. Who wants to be hit with a multi million dollar extra fee on the boat of grain you bought because El Trumpo decided Morocco is a silly country? There is also the tariff that I can't remember if it is in place yet on any vessel made in China.

*or their climate is crap so only oats and wheat grow well there!
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Err towards the latter, but it's kinda the same thing. Strong dollar sucks for some, but not the heavy consumer/processes. Which is who gets whacked by tariffs the hardest down the line.
 
Theov said:
Maybe those $500 billion dollar from the mineral deal that Zelensky is willing to sign will ease the pain a little for Americans.
Click to expand...
We don't need to hurt others as the solution for our self inflicted pain.

Thorgalaeg said:
What? That is good or bad?
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It's the oligarchy robbing us of our jobs and freezing our wages to lower asset prices that they then buy up with their printed money, printed and given to them for already being rich.

What in my phrasing made it sound good? :eek:
 
1 post context window ?
 
Yes. Trump is entirely insane on economics. So the biggest mistake to make when thinking about his economic policies is to think that they, in fact, economic policies! They are not. Nothing he is doing is for economic reasons.

Businesses don't like uncertainty. Neither does the general population. At least some portion of both will retrench in the face of Trump's insanity. Of course, MAGA loves Trump's insanity, and will pretend that Dear Leader is doing the most brilliant things ever. But that doesn't change the fact that Trump, in addition to being insane, is a traitor. He's trying to turn the US into post-Soviet Russia. Complete with the fire sale of government assets to political cronies. And while this is good for the cronies, it comes at the expense of the country.
 
Cutlass said:
He's trying to turn the US into post-Soviet Russia. Complete with the fire sale of government assets to political cronies. And while this is good for the cronies, it comes at the expense of the country.
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Maybe this bit will become true soon:

L.P.D.: Libertarian Police Department​

By Tom O’Donnell

March 31, 2014

I was shooting heroin and reading “The Fountainhead” in the front seat of my privately owned police cruiser when a call came in. I put a quarter in the radio to activate it. It was the chief.

“Bad news, detective. We got a situation.”

“What? Is the mayor trying to ban trans fats again?”

“Worse. Somebody just stole four hundred and forty-seven million dollars’ worth of bitcoins.”

The heroin needle practically fell out of my arm. “What kind of monster would do something like that? Bitcoins are the ultimate currency: virtual, anonymous, stateless. They represent true economic freedom, not subject to arbitrary manipulation by any government. Do we have any leads?”

“Not yet. But mark my words: we’re going to figure out who did this and we’re going to take them down … provided someone pays us a fair market rate to do so.”

“Easy, chief,” I said. “Any rate the market offers is, by definition, fair.”

He laughed. “That’s why you’re the best I got, Lisowski. Now you get out there and find those bitcoins.”

“Don’t worry,” I said. “I’m on it.”

I put a quarter in the siren. Ten minutes later, I was on the scene. It was a normal office building, strangled on all sides by public sidewalks. I hopped over them and went inside.

“Home Depot™ Presents the Police!®” I said, flashing my badge and my gun and a small picture of Ron Paul. “Nobody move unless you want to!” They didn’t.

“Now, which one of you punks is going to pay me to investigate this crime?” No one spoke up.

“Come on,” I said. “Don’t you all understand that the protection of private property is the foundation of all personal liberty?”

It didn’t seem like they did.

“Seriously, guys. Without a strong economic motivator, I’m just going to stand here and not solve this case. Cash is fine, but I prefer being paid in gold bullion or autographed Penn Jillette posters.”

Nothing. These people were stonewalling me. It almost seemed like they didn’t care that a fortune in computer money invented to buy drugs was missing.

I figured I could wait them out. I lit several cigarettes indoors. A pregnant lady coughed, and I told her that secondhand smoke is a myth. Just then, a man in glasses made a break for it.

“Subway™ Eat Fresh and Freeze, Scumbag!®” I yelled.

Too late. He was already out the front door. I went after him.

“Stop right there!” I yelled as I ran. He was faster than me because I always try to avoid stepping on public sidewalks. Our country needs a private-sidewalk voucher system, but, thanks to the incestuous interplay between our corrupt federal government and the public-sidewalk lobby, it will never happen.

I was losing him. “Listen, I’ll pay you to stop!” I yelled. “What would you consider an appropriate price point for stopping? I’ll offer you a thirteenth of an ounce of gold and a gently worn ‘Bob Barr ‘08’ extra-large long-sleeved men’s T-shirt!”

He turned. In his hand was a revolver that the Constitution said he had every right to own. He fired at me and missed. I pulled my own gun, put a quarter in it, and fired back. The bullet lodged in a U.S.P.S. mailbox less than a foot from his head. I shot the mailbox again, on purpose.

“All right, all right!” the man yelled, throwing down his weapon. “I give up, cop! I confess: I took the bitcoins.”

“Why’d you do it?” I asked, as I slapped a pair of Oikos™ Greek Yogurt Presents Handcuffs® on the guy.

“Because I was afraid.”

“Afraid?”

“Afraid of an economic future free from the pernicious meddling of central bankers,” he said. “I’m a central banker.”

I wanted to coldcock the guy. Years ago, a central banker killed my partner. Instead, I shook my head.

“Let this be a message to all your central-banker friends out on the street,” I said. “No matter how many bitcoins you steal, you’ll never take away the dream of an open society based on the principles of personal and economic freedom.”

He nodded, because he knew I was right. Then he swiped his credit card to pay me for arresting him.
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Cutlass said:
Yes. Trump is entirely insane on economics. So the biggest mistake to make when thinking about his economic policies is to think that they, in fact, economic policies! They are not. Nothing he is doing is for economic reasons.

Businesses don't like uncertainty. Neither does the general population. At least some portion of both will retrench in the face of Trump's insanity. Of course, MAGA loves Trump's insanity, and will pretend that Dear Leader is doing the most brilliant things ever. But that doesn't change the fact that Trump, in addition to being insane, is a traitor. He's trying to turn the US into post-Soviet Russia. Complete with the fire sale of government assets to political cronies. And while this is good for the cronies, it comes at the expense of the country.
Click to expand...
I realize this is anecdotal, the woman I was sitting in front of on the train on Friday was speaking with multiple people on the phone the entire trip about how the recent increase in tariffs on China are absolutely blowing up her budget and yearly projections. Sounds like she imports a lot of computer equipment from China!

Just imagine trying to update your G&A budget every few days because the president keeps adding and then retracting tariffs. Absolute mess!
 
Do I buy now for the tariffs or hold cash for the recession 😑
 
Too late I just bought another subwoofer
 
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