Yes, I will attack the Longbowman - end of story

[dutchfire]

The odds of a generic Keshik with combat I attacking a generic longbowman crossing a river.

30,1%

Now, can we get back to business?

 

[Methos]

What I was trying to imply was that the information he learned would be learned legally in almost any other situation in game, but because of a specific bug that we are now aware of a small move was required to gain access to this normally freely available information, I think this move can be considered an exception because of this game bug that it compensates for.

Ah, I see your point now.

Good, since we know this from Joe, we can simply decide to move the two keshiks to Northeast of Berlin.

First off, a binding poll forces us to attack the longbow. We cannot go against that. Secondly, you are already going against the rules and spirit of the game by using information that we cannot have legally gained. Yes, I now know of Grant's point, but that bug issue needs to be dealt with in the courts, not based off of our opinion of it.

@Provo: We cannot use information gained from the illegal move no matter what! In other words, any polls made in regards to going against the current binding one would be considered invalid due to our rules.

 

[Methos]

The odds of a generic Keshik with combat I attacking a generic longbowman crossing a river.

30,1%

Now, can we get back to business?

I understand, but the problem is this wasn't done before the binding poll, but instead was done due to illegal actions. We can't go off of this information.

Granted, technically speaking the DP could begin his turnchat and realize the correct % chance and halt his turnchat, but again, that would be a question of going against a binding poll.

Either way you look at it, it ain't good.

 

[Conroe]

Edit: Holy Mackeral! 50 posts showed up while I was typing.

Unfortunately I don't have that much faith in the RNG. I fear that a middle of the road approach on attacking this longbowman will be much worse than putting the necessary force to finish him off into this battle, or, possibly even worse than leaving him alone entirely.

In the end, it really doesn't matter. We have enough forces to take Berlin any time we want, whether we kill this LB or not. It is just always easier to kill a CG Longbowman out in the open, rather than wait until he gets to the city and gets another 45% bonus.

Whatever you do though, be careful about promoting him. In other words, if you attack him, then finish him off. He has a CG promotion, so we know he is heading for a city. And since we've decided to delay the assault on Berlin, the LB would have enough time to heal and promote.

IOW if you attack the LB, then finish him off. If you don't want to finish him off, then don't attack him.

 

[grant2004]

I'll hold off on commenting on that plan until the court has ruled, one aspect that might be problematic is where Joe checked the odds from, if they rule that he has to repeat that move as the first of the TC we may not be able to reach the square you suggest, if he moved 1N to check the odds.

 

[dutchfire]

Edit: Holy Mackeral! 50 posts showed up while I was typing

And people are saying that this subforum isn't active

 

[Joe Harker]

I moved NE, onto the floodplain

 

[Provolution]

Joe, are you doing the Turnchat now ?
Definately do not use the other Keshik, the other poll is made far too late.

 

[Joe Harker]

No i am not, i just saying where i moved the keshik to, to find out the odds

 

[Provolution]

At least vote against the second longbowman poll, which is far sillier than the first one, which says quite a lot.

 

[DaveShack]

Guess I should have updated this thread too... the whole thing was a misconception that we should do the attack in two moves. You get the better odds if it's done as a single move.

 

[Methos]

Guess I should have updated this thread too... the whole thing was a misconception that we should do the attack in two moves. You get the better odds if it's done as a single move.

This is something I didn't realize. Thanks for that knowledge. I've done that in a lot of my solo games, including HOF submissions, as in move and than attack.

 

[Provolution]

Hehe, is this an illegal move too ? Since we already know about it ?

LOL, this "End of Story" suffix attracts numerous visitors, very much like a just recently cleaned toilet seat.

 

[DaveShack]

We don't yet know the results of the attack. Hovering is definitely ok.

 

[Conroe]

... the whole thing was a misconception that we should do the attack in two moves. You get the better odds if it's done as a single move.

This is incorrect. The Keshik has the exact same combat odds whether it is done in one move or two. What is different is the display of those odds. Anyone can easily verify this with a WB test and checking the combat log after the battle.

Some believe this to be a bug, saying the game does not show the correct odds on multi-move units. I, however, believe it to be a feature. This same mechanism allows me to check the odds of a unit against a defender on another continent, even though there is no possible way to cross the ocean this turn. I find this a very handy feature when prioritizing seat assignments on my boats. It is also quite handy in chasing down barbs and assaulting barb cities.

So whether we want to call it a bug or feature is up to you all. But the bottom line is the odds have not changed since Joe's move. Only the display of those odds has changed.

 

[Provolution]

Good you informed us on this, Conroe.

If this is the case, I would scrutinize some of the citizen input, and my own input for that matter, very severely for the rest of the term.
I am certain we will not see similar suicide polls for the longer haul, and if so, I would be very outspoken and sarcastic about it.

 

[Conroe]

I am certain we will not see similar suicide polls for the longer haul, and if so, I would be very outspoken and sarcastic about it.

If this were my own personal game, that LB would have been long since dead. I have no problem whatsoever suiciding Keshiks. But my thoughts for this DG game can be found a few posts back ...

 

[DaveShack]

Point 1: My issue was, and still is, that you're treating me like a liar even after I provided evidence that the game says 67%. Nobody does that, ever.

Point 2: I don't really care if there is a bug or not. A normal player would want to attack, hover the unit, see the attack has a good chance, and do it. A normal player wouldn't be keeping track of what the actual results are over hundreds of cycles.

Point 3: I'd be interest in hearing what methodology was used to determine "actual" odds. Was it 100's of trials with updated RNG each time?

 

[Conroe]

Not sure if this is directed to me or not, but just in case ...

Point 1: My issue was, and still is, that you're treating me like a liar even after I provided evidence that the game says 67%.

My sincerest apologies to you. I have never felt that you have lied. I was attempting to show that your statement was incorrect. In no way did I mean to imply that you have misled anyone. And I am sorry that you interpreted my statements that way.

Edit: I'm not sure why you think I'm treating you as a liar. I just did a search of my own posts, and I can find only 2 posts where I mentioned the Keshik "river penalty": Post #35 above and this post.

Point 2: I don't really care if there is a bug or not. A normal player would want to attack, hover the unit, see the attack has a good chance, and do it. A normal player wouldn't be keeping track of what the actual results are over hundreds of cycles.

Agreed!

Point 3: I'd be interest in hearing what methodology was used to determine "actual" odds. Was it 100's of trials with updated RNG each time?

No. Just go into WB and setup a test. After you attack the unit you can see the actual combat parameters (and the odds) in the combat log.

Edit: See the attached screenshot.

 

[dutchfire]

@Conroe I had actually been thinking about this, but I'm very grateful that you decide to figure this out (once and forever, hopefully).