Yes, I will attack the Longbowman - end of story

Point of note.

The keshik in Conroes example had no promotions. Our keshik "Boyan Chargers" has Combat 1 and Formation. This means that in the calculator example, his 24,8 % odds would be 29.4 % odds, or just about 30 %. So it is indeed about 1/3 odds, it is just the hovering info 2 tiles away that is wrong.

Now that is settled I feel happy, not for the death-sentenced keshik, but for being right on my first hunch, that charging across the river was a bad idea.

I think Joe would not listen to the voices asking for a follow up attack with the 2nd and last keshik (Combat 3 and formation), knowing that the odds are that bad. I also directed him to the battle calculator, so he can make a last minute assessment without tampering with the save.
 
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