Coronavirus 14: Boosted Waves or Merely a Ripple?

[El_Machinae]

A quick Googling shows that about 88% of Portuguese were fully vaccinated just as Omicron was arriving. And in the article they talk about it being much higher by the time BA.5 arrives.

There could be two reasons that I can think of for the improved immunity.

Either there is a recency effect, which should be washed out a bit with boosters. Like, if you got the original strain but then got a booster just before BA.5 or if Omicron acted like your booster (since they were already probably vaccinated), you would expect both cohorts to have increased resistance.

The second is that Omicron is "better designed' than the boosters for fighting off BA.5. And I think that would say something interesting about antigenic sin, where getting an obsolete vaccine first didn't sufficiently reduce the ability of Omicron to give you a booster to erode the signal.

 

[EvaDK]

If Covid19 mutates into a variant that is more infectious, but less harmful, that's good. It will then become another seasonal 'flu'. That has been the trend so far.

But all bets are off in China; their homegrown vaccine doesn't work against the dominant variant there and they won't buy Western vaccines, because reasons. So, different virus mutations might develop in China, compared to other territories.

 

[Zelig]

“Cromer’s team estimated that, for every 1,000 people, a booster campaign based on updated vaccines would result in 8 fewer hospitalizations, on average, than one based on older vaccines.”

What? That would be a significant difference. That’s basically halving hospitalization rates, unless they’re working with some weird base numbers.

 

[El_Machinae]

Also, it's just a 'communication'. It's not a research article. That line jumped out as bonkers unclear.

 

[uppi]

“Cromer’s team estimated that, for every 1,000 people, a booster campaign based on updated vaccines would result in 8 fewer hospitalizations, on average, than one based on older vaccines.”

What? That would be a significant difference. That’s basically halving hospitalization rates, unless they’re working with some weird base numbers.

The line is an incredibly mangled version of this line in the actual paper:

This would correspond to 8 additional severe cases averted for every 1,000 severe cases that would have occurred in a naive population over the six month period.

So, yeah, it is nonsense.

 

[Takhisis]

Hey, we have a ‘bilateral pneumonia’ virus of our own in the republic province of Tucumán that is so far unidentified.

 

[innonimatu]

A quick Googling shows that about 88% of Portuguese were fully vaccinated just as Omicron was arriving. And in the article they talk about it being much higher by the time BA.5 arrives.

There could be two reasons that I can think of for the improved immunity.

Either there is a recency effect, which should be washed out a bit with boosters. Like, if you got the original strain but then got a booster just before BA.5 or if Omicron acted like your booster (since they were already probably vaccinated), you would expect both cohorts to have increased resistance.

The second is that Omicron is "better designed' than the boosters for fighting off BA.5. And I think that would say something interesting about antigenic sin, where getting an obsolete vaccine first didn't sufficiently reduce the ability of Omicron to give you a booster to erode the signal.

The original omicron wave here was huge, and vastly undercounted. Wide availability and systematic use of PCR tests was discontinued in the spring of 2022.

When summer started plenty of people deliberately did not test even while symptomatic because they wanted to go on vacation rather than quarantine. Current numbers cannot be compared to the numbers until the end of the winter. Since then the data is crap here. In short - that paper us using flawed data, no conclusion can be drawn from it.

The one reliable statistic is mortality. There is no doubt abot how many people are dying each month. That monthly data started hitting record highs early this year.

 

[The_J]

One of the very rare cases where I agree with you here.

 

[El_Machinae]

Math and reading scores for America's 9-year-olds fell dramatically during the first two years of the pandemic, according to a new federal study — offering an early glimpse of the sheer magnitude of the learning setbacks dealt to the nation's children.

The United States was kind enough to provide a bit of a social experiment, even if they're very hard. With nods to attempting standardized testing, but also having very different policies in different States, we will be able to unpack the various local efforts to both fight covid-19 and educate children. The DALY aspect of covid-19 infection will probably take year to unpack (even if a short-term snapshot is meaningful), and then we will measure that against what was done to the children while trying to do what's best for them.

 

[Zelig]

When summer started plenty of people deliberately did not test even while symptomatic because they wanted to go on vacation rather than quarantine.

This is a thing pretty much everywhere. In China plenty of people avoid testing as much as possible because even if they plan on quarantining, it’s far less damaging for them and their contacts to do so without the government knowing.

 

[innonimatu]

The Chinese at least are doing well - very well by comparison with the whole rest of the bloody world - on mortality statistics! Life expectancy continues improving there.

 

[Zelig]

Like I’ve pointed out before, the way that life expectancy is measured results in a drop if a bunch of people die in a one-time event, even if there’s no impact on the rest of the population.

 

[amadeus]

The Chinese at least are doing well - very well by comparison with the whole rest of the bloody world - on mortality statistics! Life expectancy continues improving there.

Why do they keep blaming Korean imports for outbreaks? Another outbreak in China is now being blamed on frozen foods. This after Korean fashion imports and packaging of Korean seafoods.

 

[Takhisis]

Hey, we have a ‘bilateral pneumonia’ virus of our own in the republic province of Tucumán that is so far unidentified.

It's the Legionella bacterium! According to the health maladministry, at least.

 

[innonimatu]

Why do they keep blaming Korean imports for outbreaks? Another outbreak in China is now being blamed on frozen foods. This after Korean fashion imports and packaging of Korean seafoods.

I have no idea. But China, Korea and Japan seem to have some strange relations going on among the three. So oit's probably more a political thing spilling over. You should in a better position to observe that.

 

[Samson]

Source (I have not read it in detail, so I not commenting)

Spoiler Another graph :

 

[Aiken_Drumn]

Left being better is really dumb.

 

[Birdjaguar]

These guys seem to be on to something.

OUR MISSION​

Why do some people get very ill from Coronavirus infection (COVID-19), experience others little or no symptoms, while yet others do not get infected at all? Rather than luck, we think the answer is in our genome and immunity. Our genes are small, yet mighty and can control our immunity in even the most subtle ways. This may explain why some people seem better equipped than others to fight this new virus. Immunity can also be disrupted by non-genetic mechanisms, which can be found thanks to the ‘genetic compass’.

Our mission is to find out why and how our genes affect our immunity against Coronavirus, and how and why immunity can also be affected by other, non-genetic causes. This discovery will allow us to develop new ways to combat this pandemic: through better and faster diagnosis, new drugs for the treatment and prevention of infection, new ways to develop a vaccine, and a better understanding of how this infection works in the body.

To accomplish all of this, we need your help. Urgently.​

WHERE YOU COME IN​

We are investigating the genetic material (DNA) of individuals who are suffering or have suffered from a severe case of COVID-19, experienced an asymptomatic infection or who are possibly resistant to infection or disease.

From those eligible, we just need some medical history and a blood or saliva sample.

You or your loved one may be eligible if you/they:​

• Were admitted to or repeatedly seen at a hospital because of COVID-19
• Did not get infected despite intense and repeated exposed to COVID-19
• Of any age, from neonates to the elderly.
• We particularly call for families in which multiple relatives have fallen ill from COVID-19

*Even if a relative has passed away, their inclusion in the effort could be invaluable. Please do not hesitate to reach out for more information on how to participate on their behalf.

How to participate:​

In person: One or two visits to any of our participating centers for a brief interview and a blood sample collection.

Remotely: You can participate by phone or video-call, and have your blood collected at a facility near you.

Want to help? Have more questions? Please feel free to contact us. We look forward to hearing from you.

Privacy:​

We would like to thank you for your interest in participating in our study and are so grateful for your potential involvement. Please rest assured that all of your personal information will be protected in accordance with the laws of your country and no collection of information or genetic material will take place without your informed consent.

participants — COVID HUMAN GENETIC EFFORT

www.covidhge.com

I found them through this article:

So you haven't caught COVID yet. Does that mean you're a superdodger?

A new study suggests that. yes, there are superdodgers. But explaining why they've been able to avoid the virus is a bit complicated.

www.npr.org

 

[Samson]

These guys seem to be on to something.

OUR MISSION​

Why do some people get very ill from Coronavirus infection (COVID-19), experience others little or no symptoms, while yet others do not get infected at all? Rather than luck, we think the answer is in our genome and immunity. Our genes are small, yet mighty and can control our immunity in even the most subtle ways. This may explain why some people seem better equipped than others to fight this new virus. Immunity can also be disrupted by non-genetic mechanisms, which can be found thanks to the ‘genetic compass’.

Our mission is to find out why and how our genes affect our immunity against Coronavirus, and how and why immunity can also be affected by other, non-genetic causes. This discovery will allow us to develop new ways to combat this pandemic: through better and faster diagnosis, new drugs for the treatment and prevention of infection, new ways to develop a vaccine, and a better understanding of how this infection works in the body.

To accomplish all of this, we need your help. Urgently.​

WHERE YOU COME IN​

We are investigating the genetic material (DNA) of individuals who are suffering or have suffered from a severe case of COVID-19, experienced an asymptomatic infection or who are possibly resistant to infection or disease.

From those eligible, we just need some medical history and a blood or saliva sample.

You or your loved one may be eligible if you/they:​

• Were admitted to or repeatedly seen at a hospital because of COVID-19
• Did not get infected despite intense and repeated exposed to COVID-19
• Of any age, from neonates to the elderly.
• We particularly call for families in which multiple relatives have fallen ill from COVID-19

*Even if a relative has passed away, their inclusion in the effort could be invaluable. Please do not hesitate to reach out for more information on how to participate on their behalf.

How to participate:​

In person: One or two visits to any of our participating centers for a brief interview and a blood sample collection.

Remotely: You can participate by phone or video-call, and have your blood collected at a facility near you.

Want to help? Have more questions? Please feel free to contact us. We look forward to hearing from you.

Privacy:​

We would like to thank you for your interest in participating in our study and are so grateful for your potential involvement. Please rest assured that all of your personal information will be protected in accordance with the laws of your country and no collection of information or genetic material will take place without your informed consent.

participants — COVID HUMAN GENETIC EFFORT

www.covidhge.com

I found them through this article:

So you haven't caught COVID yet. Does that mean you're a superdodger?

A new study suggests that. yes, there are superdodgers. But explaining why they've been able to avoid the virus is a bit complicated.

www.npr.org

That is cool, but they need to fix their "find a participating centre" map. It really looks bad for a group who is asking you to trust them with your genetic data.

Spoiler Broken map :

 

[amadeus]

I’m a superdodger by action if not genetics. Hopefully I am also from the superior gene pool.