2800 Bc
- Thread starter HUSch
- Start date
) grow in 3 turns
- Pyt heals
- worker 9-8 (on the hill CERN-8)
- CERN works clams+rice
Ari
I'm a little undecided here.
Either we retreat (-> move 9) or we heal/fortify and let the bear attack us. We definately don't want to attack the bear @23.1%.
If the bear attacks us, we get 1 turn fortify-bonus (5%) and +50% forrest-defense to the +20% vs. animals. In this case our odds should be bigger than 50%, but it's still a gamble. (If the bear retreats, Ari will heal completely during interturn.)
-> In case I don't recall my vote, I would move Ari 9, which is the safer way. (...and I don't want to loose Ari...)
- worker 9-8 (on the hill CERN-8)
- CERN works clams+rice
Ari
I'm a little undecided here.
Either we retreat (-> move 9) or we heal/fortify and let the bear attack us. We definately don't want to attack the bear @23.1%.
If the bear attacks us, we get 1 turn fortify-bonus (5%) and +50% forrest-defense to the +20% vs. animals. In this case our odds should be bigger than 50%, but it's still a gamble. (If the bear retreats, Ari will heal completely during interturn.)
-> In case I don't recall my vote, I would move Ari 9, which is the safer way. (...and I don't want to loose Ari...)
I don't want to risk losing that explorer just yet. It will be many many turns until we have someone out that way again. Retreat across the river! Ari 9
Everything else looks good
Everything else looks good
I agree with Ari 9. At least bears are only 1 
.
.
Especially against a Bear. They are 3
, which means that at full health on a forest tile we have just over 50% odds.
Hopefully the bear won't chase us, and we'll be able to heal next turn, with the safety of the river between us and him.
, which means that at full health on a forest tile we have just over 50% odds.Hopefully the bear won't chase us, and we'll be able to heal next turn, with the safety of the river between us and him.
placebo
We get +20% against animals. If a bear attacks us in a forrest/jungle we are already above 50%-winning odds (more likely ~60%).
If we want to heal Ari, we can do that in 2 turns in the forest/jungle 9-9 or 6-6 of his current position. (It should take only 1 turn.)
We get +20% against animals. If a bear attacks us in a forrest/jungle we are already above 50%-winning odds (more likely ~60%).
If we want to heal Ari, we can do that in 2 turns in the forest/jungle 9-9 or 6-6 of his current position. (It should take only 1 turn.)
Our chances aren't as good as you might think. Indeed we get the +20% against barbarians, and it is also true that we get the +50% from terrain. But these effects just barely judge us over 50% odds.
Attacker: 3
Defender: 2 + (20% + 50%) = 3.4
Attacker's odds: A / (A + D) = 3 (3 + 3.4) = .47 = 47 % for the Aristotle to die painfully
Defender's odds: D / (A + D) = 3.4 (3 + 3.4) = .53 = 53% for Aristotle to survive, but wounded
EDIT: this assumed Aristotle at full health, which he's not
Modified with 96/100 HP: A = 3, D = .96[2+(20%+50%)] = 3.26
Attacker's odds = 3(3+3.26) = .48
Defender's odds = 3.13(3+3.26) = .52
Refer to Arathorn's excellent article for more info.
We cannot allow the bear to attack us.
On a somewhat related note, I'm reading a book about bear attacks, and running from the bear is a big no-no. It tends to engage the predator's chase response
Attacker: 3
Defender: 2 + (20% + 50%) = 3.4
Attacker's odds: A / (A + D) = 3 (3 + 3.4) = .47 = 47 % for the Aristotle to die painfully
Defender's odds: D / (A + D) = 3.4 (3 + 3.4) = .53 = 53% for Aristotle to survive, but wounded
EDIT: this assumed Aristotle at full health, which he's not
Modified with 96/100 HP: A = 3, D = .96[2+(20%+50%)] = 3.26
Attacker's odds = 3(3+3.26) = .48
Defender's odds = 3.13(3+3.26) = .52
Refer to Arathorn's excellent article for more info.
We cannot allow the bear to attack us.
On a somewhat related note, I'm reading a book about bear attacks, and running from the bear is a big no-no. It tends to engage the predator's chase response
I count 1 vote for 8, and 3-4 votes for 9.
Of course, many people haven't spoken up
I'm actually fine with 8 as well, since we'd be better defended if an animal appears in the fog and attacks us. The more I think about it, I'd prefer the safe move: 8
Of course, many people haven't spoken up
I'm actually fine with 8 as well, since we'd be better defended if an animal appears in the fog and attacks us. The more I think about it, I'd prefer the safe move: 8
If we feel lucky then 9 is ok. If we want to be reasonably sure of being safe, then 8.
I was actually going to say 8 to begin with for the better odds, but was ok with taking the risk if others felt it was more important to make progress.
Peter's calculation doesn't show what it would be on grass -- about 70% chance of losing, right? I think I'll change my vote to 8.
I was actually going to say 8 to begin with for the better odds, but was ok with taking the risk if others felt it was more important to make progress.
Peter's calculation doesn't show what it would be on grass -- about 70% chance of losing, right? I think I'll change my vote to 8.
peter
I think you missed, that you calculated the odds for winnig 1 round of fighting and not the final odds to win the fight. (fighting in CIV is turn-based as well)
Further you missed the fortification bonus we would get.
Nevertheless I agree that we better retreat with Ari and heal him soon.
I think moving 9 (and then 9-heal or 3-heal) would be best, but I could also live with 8-heal.
I think you missed, that you calculated the odds for winnig 1 round of fighting and not the final odds to win the fight. (fighting in CIV is turn-based as well)
Further you missed the fortification bonus we would get.
Nevertheless I agree that we better retreat with Ari and heal him soon.
I think moving 9 (and then 9-heal or 3-heal) would be best, but I could also live with 8-heal.
on grass we wouldn't get the +50% from terrain, just the bonus against barbs:
a = 3
d = .96[2 + (20%)] = 2.3
A / (A + D) = .57 for the bear to win
D / (A + D) = .43 for us to win
Wow - I'm really surprised the odds are that 'good'. I was expecting them to be more like .66 or so. I guess my math sense is a little off *wink*
So this is what the odds would be if a bear appeared in the fog. Here are the odds for other barbs:
2 barb to win: 47%
1 barb to win: 30%
Yeah, I'm much more comfortable with the safe retreat at 8. We're so far from home, it'll take forever to get another unit out this far.
a = 3
d = .96[2 + (20%)] = 2.3
A / (A + D) = .57 for the bear to win
D / (A + D) = .43 for us to win
Wow - I'm really surprised the odds are that 'good'. I was expecting them to be more like .66 or so. I guess my math sense is a little off *wink*
So this is what the odds would be if a bear appeared in the fog. Here are the odds for other barbs:
2
barb to win: 47%1
barb to win: 30%Yeah, I'm much more comfortable with the safe retreat at 8. We're so far from home, it'll take forever to get another unit out this far.
Is this correct?
I thought we would work clams+rice...
edit:
Maybe Dave could move this post into the turn-thread in order to keep this thread to the pure turntracker...
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