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2800 Bc

Discussion in 'Team Mad Scientists' started by HUSch, Dec 29, 2008.

  1. HUSch

    HUSch Secret-monger

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    Germany
    Question:
    Ari attacks the bear or goes away (9 at grasland or 8 at forrest).
    I vote for 9

    2. Pyt (0,7/2) heals
    3. rice is irrigated, and 1 worker can move;
    my plan 98 at the hill/forrest north of CERN.
    4. CERN works clam, rice (+6 :food:) grow in 3 turns




     

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  2. topas

    topas Prince

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    - Pyt heals
    - worker 9-8 (on the hill CERN-8)
    - CERN works clams+rice

    Ari
    I'm a little undecided here.
    Either we retreat (-> move 9) or we heal/fortify and let the bear attack us. We definately don't want to attack the bear @23.1%.
    If the bear attacks us, we get 1 turn fortify-bonus (5%) and +50% forrest-defense to the +20% vs. animals. In this case our odds should be bigger than 50%, but it's still a gamble. (If the bear retreats, Ari will heal completely during interturn.)
    -> In case I don't recall my vote, I would move Ari 9, which is the safer way. (...and I don't want to loose Ari...)
     
  3. peter grimes

    peter grimes ...

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    I don't want to risk losing that explorer just yet. It will be many many turns until we have someone out that way again. Retreat across the river! Ari 9

    Everything else looks good :)
     
  4. DaveShack

    DaveShack Inventor Retired Moderator

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    I agree with Ari 9. At least bears are only 1 :move:.
     
  5. Hummel

    Hummel Warlord

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    Ari 8 (and we have to heal Ari completely at the next possible turn - the 0.08 points could be the difference in a fight with an animal)

    Pyt heal

    worker ok
     
  6. peter grimes

    peter grimes ...

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    Especially against a Bear. They are 3:strength:, which means that at full health on a forest tile we have just over 50% odds.

    Hopefully the bear won't chase us, and we'll be able to heal next turn, with the safety of the river between us and him.
     
  7. topas

    topas Prince

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    placebo
    We get +20% against animals. If a bear attacks us in a forrest/jungle we are already above 50%-winning odds (more likely ~60%).

    If we want to heal Ari, we can do that in 2 turns in the forest/jungle 9-9 or 6-6 of his current position. (It should take only 1 turn.)
     
  8. peter grimes

    peter grimes ...

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    Our chances aren't as good as you might think. Indeed we get the +20% against barbarians, and it is also true that we get the +50% from terrain. But these effects just barely judge us over 50% odds.

    Attacker: 3
    Defender: 2 + (20% + 50%) = 3.4

    Attacker's odds: A / (A + D) = 3 (3 + 3.4) = .47 = 47 % for the Aristotle to die painfully
    Defender's odds: D / (A + D) = 3.4 (3 + 3.4) = .53 = 53% for Aristotle to survive, but wounded


    EDIT: this assumed Aristotle at full health, which he's not :eek:

    Modified with 96/100 HP: A = 3, D = .96[2+(20%+50%)] = 3.26

    Attacker's odds = 3(3+3.26) = .48
    Defender's odds = 3.13(3+3.26) = .52
    Refer to Arathorn's excellent article for more info.

    We cannot allow the bear to attack us. :nono:

    On a somewhat related note, I'm reading a book about bear attacks, and running from the bear is a big no-no. It tends to engage the predator's chase response :run:
     
  9. HUSch

    HUSch Secret-monger

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    Now: Ari 8 or 9?
    At which tile we wont live.
     
  10. peter grimes

    peter grimes ...

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    I count 1 vote for 8, and 3-4 votes for 9.

    Of course, many people haven't spoken up :mischief:

    I'm actually fine with 8 as well, since we'd be better defended if an animal appears in the fog and attacks us. The more I think about it, I'd prefer the safe move: 8
     
  11. DaveShack

    DaveShack Inventor Retired Moderator

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    If we feel lucky then 9 is ok. If we want to be reasonably sure of being safe, then 8.

    I was actually going to say 8 to begin with for the better odds, but was ok with taking the risk if others felt it was more important to make progress.

    Peter's calculation doesn't show what it would be on grass -- about 70% chance of losing, right? I think I'll change my vote to 8.
     
  12. topas

    topas Prince

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    peter
    I think you missed, that you calculated the odds for winnig 1 round of fighting and not the final odds to win the fight. (fighting in CIV is turn-based as well)
    Further you missed the fortification bonus we would get.

    Nevertheless I agree that we better retreat with Ari and heal him soon.

    I think moving 9 (and then 9-heal or 3-heal) would be best, but I could also live with 8-heal.
     
  13. peter grimes

    peter grimes ...

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    on grass we wouldn't get the +50% from terrain, just the bonus against barbs:
    a = 3
    d = .96[2 + (20%)] = 2.3

    A / (A + D) = .57 for the bear to win
    D / (A + D) = .43 for us to win


    Wow - I'm really surprised the odds are that 'good'. I was expecting them to be more like .66 or so. I guess my math sense is a little off *wink*

    So this is what the odds would be if a bear appeared in the fog. Here are the odds for other barbs:
    2:strength: barb to win: 47%
    1:strength: barb to win: 30%

    Yeah, I'm much more comfortable with the safe retreat at 8. We're so far from home, it'll take forever to get another unit out this far.
     
  14. HUSch

    HUSch Secret-monger

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    Should we then move only on forrest tiles. We can't do this in the future.
    But now I want to know 8 or 9?
     
  15. topas

    topas Prince

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    I would move 9 now and then try to use mainly forest/jungle tiles.
     
  16. HUSch

    HUSch Secret-monger

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    So I 'll play and move 9

    The bear has followed Ari and in the east of CERN appears a lion.
     
  17. topas

    topas Prince

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    Is this correct?
    I thought we would work clams+rice...


    edit:
    Maybe Dave could move this post into the turn-thread in order to keep this thread to the pure turntracker...
     

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