Alternate History: The Munich Agreement

GeorgeLiquor

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What would have happened if the UK and France had refused Hitler's demands for annexation of the Sudetenland?

From what I understand, the German generals claimed that the Czech border defense system would have given them a run for their money.


Furthermore, would the Germans have been ready for a war? Just two years earlier, they were ready to retreat if they encountered the French military in the Rhineland. Granted, two years of rearmament, as well as additional resources from Austria probably made a sizable difference.
 
What would have happened if the UK and France had refused Hitler's demands for annexation of the Sudetenland?

From what I understand, the German generals claimed that the Czech border defense system would have given them a run for their money.


Furthermore, would the Germans have been ready for a war? Just two years earlier, they were ready to retreat if they encountered the French military in the Rhineland. Granted, two years of rearmament, as well as additional resources from Austria probably made a sizable difference.
The wehrmacht was prepared to launch a coup d'etat against Hitler in the event of an invasion of Czechoslovakia, scheduled for October 1, 1939. They told Neville Chamberlain that all it would take to bring the divisions that were wavering in loyalty to the plotters' side would be a declaration of Britain's intent to defend Czechoslovakia. Chamberlain refused, but the plotters prepared a smaller coup anyway, this one probably just of Hitler himself, rather than the NSDAP in general. Goering would likely have taken over Germany in this scenario.

Even assuming none of this occurred, the Germans were in no way prepared for a successful war at that point. It would have taken them anywhere between 4-6 weeks to occupy all of Bohemia and Moravia - possibly longer, if Poland and Hungary refused to join in on the dogpile - and they would not have had a year to take advantage of Czech munitions and manufactures (the Skoda factory produced a disgustingly-large amount for the Germans in the eleven months between its occupation and the outbreak of WWII) before turning their attention to France. While the French didn't do much to defend Poland in OTL, they'd have had even less facing them in the Rhineland in this timeline, and probably wouldn't have held off pushing into Germany indefinitely.

The USSR was also prepared to attack Germany to defend Czechoslovakia, even if doing so required them to go to war with Poland as well. It is this point that makes me think Hungary would have stayed out of the war. Horthy wasn't stupid, and he knew he couldn't beat the Soviets at that point. In 1941, Germany seemed to be pre-eminent in the region, but in 1938 the USSR was clearly the top-dog in Eastern Europe.

An interesting hypothetic is raised by the fact that Mussolini would have opposed Germany over Czechoslovakia, and German and Italian troops were serving side-by-side in the Spanish Civil War. If they'd begun fighting each other there, even the qualitatively superior German troops - the Condor Legion were easily the best force in Iberia at this time - would have been overrun by the numerically superior Italians. The effect this would have on the Spanish Civil War is very, very interesting. Arwon might know more about that.
 
The wehrmacht was prepared to launch a coup d'etat against Hitler in the event of an invasion of Czechoslovakia, scheduled for October 1, 1939. They told Neville Chamberlain that all it would take to bring the divisions that were wavering in loyalty to the plotters' side would be a declaration of Britain's intent to defend Czechoslovakia. Chamberlain refused, but the plotters prepared a smaller coup anyway, this one probably just of Hitler himself, rather than the NSDAP in general. Goering would likely have taken over Germany in this scenario.

Have a preferably online source for that? I wouldn't mind reading more.
 
Have a preferably online source for that? I wouldn't mind reading more.
The Wiki page for the Munich Pact has a small section on General Ludwig Beck's planned coup (see under Reaction). A more complete page, which I've never come across before, is also available. Both are factually accurate, but lack details.

The best sources are Richard J. Evans' The Third Reich in Power and the book 1938. I can't remember the author of the latter, but have it at home. It is more easily accessible than Evans' mammoth tome, and since it has one chapter per month of the year, it gives more complete details, but doesn't give the same political and economic background of Evans' work. I am unsure if you can get either of these on GoogleBooks. Evans' Third Reich Trilogy (The Coming of the Third Reich, The Third Reich in Power and The Third Reich at War) is well-worth purchasing if you can find it anywhere. Easily the definitive guide to Germany under the NSDAP.
 
The Germans still weren't that well prepared in 1939 and the Poles had the fourth-largest army in Europe, but we know what happened there.
 
The Germans still weren't that well prepared in 1939 and the Poles had the fourth-largest army in Europe, but we know what happened there.
Germany attacked an inferior force from three separate fronts while the USSR opened a fourth, and won? What's your point?
 
Adolf Hitler demanded the annexation of the Sudetenland. Britain and France refuses. Hitler gets angry and takes the Sudetenland by force. Czechoslovakia fights back. Neither Britain nor France intervenes. With a force of over 4 million men, Germany successfully takes and annexes Czechoslovakia. France and Britain fear Germany and mobilizes in case of an outbreak of war. Germany and Russia signs the Molotov–Ribbentrop Pact on 23 August, 1939. Germany mobilizes more men on 31 August, 1939. On 1 September, 1939, Germany invades Poland. France and Britain and its overseas territories (India, South Africa). Then the rest you know what happens
 
Adolf Hitler demanded the annexation of the Sudetenland. Britain and France refuses. Hitler gets angry and takes the Sudetenland by force. Czechoslovakia fights back. Neither Britain nor France intervenes. With a force of over 4 million men, Germany successfully takes and annexes Czechoslovakia. France and Britain fear Germany and mobilizes in case of an outbreak of war. Germany and Russia signs the Molotov–Ribbentrop Pact on 23 August, 1939. Germany mobilizes more men on 31 August, 1939. On 1 September, 1939, Germany invades Poland. France and Britain and its overseas territories (India, South Africa). Then the rest you know what happens
I suppose the fact that Germany and Poland were allied in 1938 and that this would give all sides another year to organise for war, and that the USSR had a mutual defensive alliance with Czechoslovakia that they were fully prepared to honour all would change absolutely nothing about the world in the meantime, huh? Ridiculous.
 
let me add just the case of the Bf-109 . The 'E subtype entering service in 1939 was instrumental in the German victory of 1940 , previously the plane was just another European fighter . Considering the Germans did not even have drills for CAS until 1939 , any fighting would have been closer to the norms the Democracies were accustomed to . Without any "Force multipliers" for Germany .
 
That would either make Hitler to abandon his plans of invasion of Czekhoslovakia, or start another scenario of mini-WW2. With German-Polish alliance fighting against France-Czekhoslovakia-USSR. Both scenarios would prevent catastrophe which happened in real life, but both were against the interests of Western Allies back then. They wanted to turn German expansion to the East.
 
possibly longer, if Poland and Hungary refused to join in on the dogpile
With German-Polish alliance fighting against France-Czekhoslovakia-USSR.

1. Poland had no alliance with Germany.

2. Poland had no alliance with Czechoslovakia.

3. Poland had an alliance with France, which was an anti-German alliance.

4. In 1938 Poland had military alliance only with 2 countries - with France (anti-German alliance) and with Romania (anti-Soviet alliance).

5. The anti-Soviet alliance with Romania was defensive (parties obliged to provide aid only if your ally is invaded by the Soviets), the anti-German alliance with France was not only defensive, but also offensive (obliged also to invade Germany if your ally invades Germany).

If France declares war on Germany, Poland is obliged to do the same (by virtue of the Polish-French anti-German alliance dating back to the 1920s):

About the Franco-Polish military alliance:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Franco-Polish_alliance_(1921)

As for Hungary - Hungary was also not interested in an alliance with Germany, certainly not at that time. Especially if this means a war against France.

I suppose the fact that Germany and Poland were allied in 1938

Nazi Germany and Poland were not allied. When Germany offered Poland to enter the Anti-Comintern Pact, Poland refused.

Polish-Czechoslovakian dispute over Zaolzie was resolved between these two parties only - Poland and Czechoslovakia - aside of the German-Czechoslovakian conflict. Germany had nothing to do with that and Poland did not ask for Germany's permission to demand the return of Zaolzie from Czechs.

As for Hungary - Hungary as well resolved its territorial dispute with Czechoslovakia on its own, without cooperation with Germany.

Hungary actually had less friendly relations with Germany than Poland. And as for Poland-Germany relations - there was only - at best - friendly neutrality between these countries at that time (which doesn't mean that Poland was not ready to fight against Germany together with France and Czechoslovakia - or even with just Czechoslovakia, if we assume that Czechoslovakia was willing to resist without French support - but it was not).

Poland was trying to stay in a friendly neutrality with Germany as the result of Polish policy of "balancing" between Germany and the Soviet Union.

But already in 1938 Poland could see German expansionism and Poland knew that it could be the next victim. So some measures to stop the German expansion could already be implemented (already Pilsudski in 1935 had some considerations about the possible preemptive Franco-Polish attack on Germany).

It should be noted that during the German invasion of Poland in 1939, Hungary refused to allow two German divisions (56. and 57. Infantry Divisions) to march across Hungarian territory in order to cross the Polish border there. So Hungary was not in any alliance with Germany, neither was Poland.

Regarding the prospects for Polish-Czechoslovakian cooperation against Germany:

The only thing that Poland would probably never agree, was to allow Soviet forces to march across its territory to aid Czechoslovakia.

This is why Polish-Czechoslovakian-Soviet alliance was not possible. But Polish-Czechoslovakian-French alliance was possible.
 
It would have taken them anywhere between 4-6 weeks to occupy all of Bohemia and Moravia - possibly longer.

I think that - with some luck - they could have resisted longer than 4-6 weeks.

We should note that the German army in 1938 was much weaker than one year later. On the other hand, Czechoslovakian army was of similar strength as the Polish army one year later, if not stronger.

However, indeed Czechoslovakian generals were exactly as pessimistic as you are.

According to this article:

http://phw.org.pl/historia-wojskowo...zanse-czechoslowacji-w-wojnie-z-niemcami.html

Translated excerpt:

"In case of lack of French military help, Czechoslovakian staff officers did not see any chances for successful defence of the country."

Well, this is why they decided not to resist the German invasion after the Munich betrayal.

But - in my opinion (and numbers also indicate this) - they still had a better chance to resist than Poland one year later.

The article also says that the Czech defensive plan against Germany (cryptonym "Variant XIII") was pretty similar to the Polish defensive plan "West" in 1939. They also assumed gradual withdrawal from the west towards the east and delaying combats along subsequent lines of defence (Veltava River, Czech-Moravian Highlands, Motlava River and in the end mountains of Javornikov and White and Small Carpathian Mountains as the final bastions of defence). The main premise of "Variant XIII" was to survive until the main French offensive in the Rheinland is launched.

One of the key elements for this plan to succeed, was firm defence of Northern and Southern Moravia (in order to prevent the rest of Czech forces from being cut off and encircled by German attacks from the north and from the south aimed at cutting Czechoslovakia in half). This is also similar to the Polish plan "West", one of the key elements of which was firm defence of Silesia, which was to be the solid "hinge" for the "door" of maneuver (while along the rest of the Polish frontline - the "door" - gradual withdrawal was planned - exactly as in the Czechoslovakian plan).

When it comes to the German "Fall Grun" plan - its main premise was a strong attack against Northern and Southern Moravia in order to cut Czechoslovakia in half (cut off western regions from Slovakia) and thus trap Czechoslovakian forces defending western regions (Czechia and Moravia) in a huge pocket, preventing their withdrawal to the east. This is also pretty similar to "Fall Weiss" plan of the invasion of Poland.

Both armies (German and Czechoslovakian) were quite mobilized and ready for war in October 1938 - here is the deployment of forces on the eve of the planned German invasion of Czechoslovakia (please note that Germans deployed only 44 divisions in the first attack wave - not including reserves -, which is a considerably smaller number than deployed initially - not including reserves - against Poland in September 1939):

Black - German forces
Red - Czechoslovakian forces

h01b1938.jpg


Here apparently some alternative version of the plan (but pretty similar, apart from a few exceptions):

http://phw.org.pl/historia-wojskowo...zanse-czechoslowacji-w-wojnie-z-niemcami.html

czechoslowacja-1938-4.jpg


And regarding the probable Polish-Czechoslovakian alliance against Germany (which in the end did not take place):

A translated excerpt from this article:

http://forteca.w.activ.pl/zaolzie.html

"... When President Moscicki asked President Benes, if Czechoslovakia was going to defend [against a German invasion - Domen], with addition, that if it is the case, then Poland would support Czechoslovakia, Benes replied after several days, that Czechoslovakia had no chances for successful defence and that it would fight only in case of France ensuring her to provide support, underlining that Czechoslovakia would not undertake military initiative on her own. In Warsaw this response was recognized as a response agreed with the Soviet Union... "

A decision of war against Germany in defence of Czechoslovakia undertaken by authorities in Paris would automatically mean accomplishment of Polish-French alliance against Germany (and if France supports Czechoslovakia against Germany, then Poland - a country which has an anti-German alliance signed with France - also must support Czechoslovakia, French ally).

So if France supports Czechoslovakia, then Poland is also obliged to do this - due to French-Polish anti-German military alliance.

Polish government was ready for this possibility, and was ready to join a war against Germany in such case. But in the same time the Polish government did not believe that such a course of events can happen, because it rightfully evaluated French intentions to "preserve peace at any price".

France did not support Czechoslovakia, instead France and Britain betrayed Czechoslovakia at Munich. In such case, Czechoslovakia did not have any intentions to fight without French support (even with Polish support).

Munich Agreement is also one of reasons why Hitler decided to invade Poland later.

At Munich Hitler realized that he had a chance to built his position basing on cooperation with the Western Allies (like in case of the Munich Agreement), instead of basing on cooperation with Poland and on friendly neutrality with Hungary and the Soviet Union.

Hitler became confident that Western Allies were going to give him anything he wanted, as a price for preserving peace in Europe.

That's why Hitler was surprised when France and Britain started to support Poland when he demanded the return of Danzig to Germany.

=======================================

So, to summ up in several points:

1) According to Czech generals, they had no chance to resist. According to Czechs, they only had a chance with French support.
2) Czech government did not want to fight without French support - and Polish offers could not convince them to change their decision.
3) There was also the issue of Soviet support for Czechs - but Poland would never agree to pass Soviet forces through her territory.
4) Poland had better relations with Germany (but no alliance - as some people wrongly indicate) than with the Soviet Union at that time.

Regarding the Polish taking of Zaolzie (region with ethnic Polish majority) as the result of the fact that Czechs entirely gave up their fight:

1) That occupation of Zaolzie was not agreed with Germany, as some people claim - it was a bilateral Polish-Czech matter.
2) Hungary also did not have any alliance with Germany, even though it also annexed parts of Czechoslovakia to its own advantage.

This was a mistake. Czechoslovakia in 1938 had a better chance of resisting a German invasion for long time than Poland had in 1939. The German army in 1938 was not yet as strong as in 1939, while Czechoslovakia had a much more favourable geopolitical situation (shorter borders, mountains, stronger fortifications, etc.) than Poland and also it had an army of similar strength (or even stronger) as (than) Poland one year later.

Czechoslovakia also had strong war industry, largely capable of replacing wartime casualties in equipment and ammo expenditure.

One factor which worked against Czechoslovakia were large ethnic minorities, more hostile than minorities in Poland.

The "5th Column" in the Invasion of Czechoslovakia would thus play an even bigger role than it played in Poland.
 
To be fair, Domen, while Poland and Germany did not have an official treaty of alliance there was an unofficial understanding that the two would co-operate in a war with the USSR. It was only after the Munich Pact that strains developed in the German-Polish relationship. Hitler had been quite friendly with the Polish regime. It was Ribbentrop that ruined the relationship.
 
between May 10th and 20th Germans destroyed European Colonialism . Sort of .
 
while Poland and Germany did not have an official treaty of alliance there was an unofficial understanding that the two would co-operate in a war with the USSR.

But Poland did not want to be dragged into war against the USSR by Germany or anyone else. Poland would only fight the Soviets, if attacked by the Soviets first (and in such case Poland had a defensive alliance with Romania - both sides promised each other help in defence).

Poland was not so suicidal as you may think, and it did not want to be at war neither with the USSR nor with Germany, unless supported by stronger allies. Both Polish plans of war - Plan "East" against the USSR and Plan "West" against Germany - were defensive plans. In 1939 Poland - unlike Czechoslovakia in 1938 - refused to German demands, only because of Polish alliance with France and the British guarantees (new alliance) ensuring help to Poland.

Czechoslovakia was betrayed by Britain and France, who signed the Munich Argeement, and that's why Czechoslovakia decided not to resist. If a similar "Munich Agreement" happened in August 1939, Poland would also not resist Germany just like Czechoslovakia did not resist Germany without French help.

Polish military planners knew that Poland alone stands no chance against Germany (Plan "West" was all about delaying enemy advance).

But they also underestimated the German strength and the effects of the so called "Blitzkrieg" warfare, especially its speed of operations.
 
How exactly do you think the USSR was going to attack Germany in Czechoslovakia's defence, if not through Poland? And if the Poles didn't allow them free passage (which they neither would nor did)?
 
between May 10th and 20th Germans destroyed European Colonialism . Sort of .

They set the events in motion. But it was really Roosevelt that put the stake in it by opting for a different kind of "empire" instead of taking a few colonies for the US and joining the game. Or, arguably further extend it, as the US was already in the game after its war with Spain.
 
They set the events in motion. But it was really Roosevelt that put the stake in it by opting for a different kind of "empire" instead of taking a few colonies for the US and joining the game. Or, arguably further extend it, as the US was already in the game after its war with Spain.
The Philippines soured the US on colonialism. Economic imperialism is much cheaper.
 
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