Are you excited for the next big recession?

[Archbob]

Are you excited for the next big recession? Because its coming soon.

The stock market indicators all say that the market is overvalued on the DOW, NASDAQ, and S&P 500. They've historically never been so overvalued according to many economists, its even worse than 2007. The declines due to the Trump Trade Wars may be the break in the dam that we've all been waiting for to trigger this next major recession.

Get ready for:

- Over 4 million jobs lost
- 40% decline in markets
- Even more tent cities than 2007-2008
- Long enormous food lines
- Destruction of retirement savings
- And so much more!!

This should drag down the entire world economy as well.

Are you excited for "2018: The Recession strikes back" ?

Because the pwnage will be beautiful.

 

[Azem.Ocram]

I really wanted the recession to hit before the midterm elections so that anti-Trump sentiments could fuel a wave of Democrats getting elected as representatives and senators, thus making impeachment of The D'ump more feasible. Which (IIRC) would strip him of all his (rather costly) benefits of being a former president.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

I'd prefer a turn of the house with the Republicans still holding the senate, then the collapse. If Democrats get in control of both houses we might get rid of Trump a little quicker, but the GOP would be able to cut him loose. With Democrats controlling the house they will be able to mitigate the damage that the GOP would otherwise do, and two years of Trump obviously sinking like a stone while the GOP has no real alternative but to keep claiming him should utterly destroy them as a party.

 

[civvver]

Long food lines? Really? We didn't have those in 2008 and we won't with the next one either. Prices can't go up that much if people can't buy stuff cus they're getting laid off and we have so much food surplus we won't suddenly just stop growing food. Meat will get more expensive probably but it already has. The trade war could spark some stuff, but I don't feel like the economy is in as bad of shape as 2007 personally. The housing market hasn't even recovered to 2005 levels yet. Stock market might be overvalued but that can correct without a huge recession. Medical expenses and student loans scare me more than anything else. If people just refuse to pay their loans back that could cause a huge banking crisis and we all know how those sink the economy.

Of course no one is excited for a recession, but I ought to be able to take pretty good advantage of one myself. I'm in tech with my finger in a ton of pies at my company so I feel my job is extremely secure (we have many contractors to let go of first). I have a pretty decent 401k balance so if I switch it to cash at the right time and switch back to stocks I could really get ahead. And I have a house I bought 3 years ago that has a great fixed interest rate so I won't need to sell and can ride things out. Only way it could be better is if I had a lot of cash to buy stocks low or an investment property. In 2009 I put my whole tax refund into an s&p 500 index fund. It wasn't a lot of money but it doubled fast. I'm not liquid enough to do that now though.

 

[Perfection]

Better than nuclear armageddon

 

[Birdjaguar]

Are you excited for the next big recession? Because its coming soon.

The stock market indicators all say that the market is overvalued on the DOW, NASDAQ, and S&P 500. They've historically never been so overvalued according to many economists, its even worse than 2007. The declines due to the Trump Trade Wars may be the break in the dam that we've all been waiting for to trigger this next major recession.

What is your source for that? I think you are wrong.

 

[Archbob]

For one the P/E ratios are way above the historical mean and they usually regress to the mean.

 

[Birdjaguar]

For one the P/E ratios are way above the historical mean and they usually regress to the mean.

I'm not sure what today's drop in the market did to the PE for the S&P 500, but it is already down from January. Prior to 2015 the ratio was consistently under 20. Since Jan 2015 it has been between 20 and 25.What makes "now" so special? Any Recession watch also needs to include: payroll growth; unemployment growth; Yield curve; leading economic indicators and inflation. Do you see those indicators also showing recessions signs? Your focus on a single factor is pretty weak.

Now if you said that Trump's tariffs were going to cause a recession, you would get my attention.

 

[Kaitzilla]

The next big recession is just about due. (Every 10 years or so)

The Federal Reserve raising interest rates due to how "strong" the economy is should expose the 10% of the zombie economy that can't survive without unlimited loan money any day now.
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017...er-10-global-companies-depend-cheap-fed-money

It has the added bonus of when workers finally get raises, they can call it inflation and spike the interest rates to fight the inflation, crashing the economy and nipping those worker raises in the bud.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/business/economy/fed-rates-powell.html

“We should also be wary of moving too gradually,” Yellen said in a speech to the National Association for Business Economics meeting in Cleveland.

There is a risk that the labor market could become overheated, causing an inflation problem down the road, she said. And persistently easy policy could have adverse implications for financial stability.

That last line is a howler, financial stability
10 years of 0% rates in USA.
20 years of 0% rates in Japan.
https://tradingeconomics.com/japan/interest-rate

Can our economies even survive with rates above 0% anymore?
I don't see Japan stupidly raising their rates.

**Edit**
I will end my sentences with prepositions!
https://www.atlasobscura.com/articles/why-cant-you-end-a-sentence-with-a-preposition

 

[Kaitzilla]

Did General Electric getting taken off the Dow Jones Industrial Average make the news?

Been around over 100 years, and then in the last 2 years it loses $100 billion in stock price and now it gets delisted from a Stock Exchange that it was a major part founding member of.
https://www.healthexec.com/topics/h...dow-jones-after-110-year-run-30-company-index

For the first time in 110 years, General Electric won’t be a part of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, after S&P Dow Jones Indices announced the corporate giant will be delisted when the stock market opens June 26. Walgreens Boots Alliance will take GE’s place in the index of 30 large, publicly traded companies in the U.S.

This announcement was unsurprising, considering recent troubles for the company. GE lost nearly half its value in 2017, ranking it as the worst performer among the DJIA’s 30 members. This year, GE stock was down another 25 percent.

 

[Arwon]

Actively cheering for the Australian housing market to totally collapse

 

[Commodore]

Did General Electric getting taken off the Dow Jones Industrial Average make the news?

Yeah, it popped up in my news feed several times over the past few days.

 

[Kaitzilla]

Well, if the next recession really gets out of hand and the government tries to seize all our guns, have no fear.
The math says they can't win according to this fantastic article.
https://survivalblog.com/mathematics-countering-tyranny/

That blog is simply jam packed with common sense good advice for when it all turns sideways.
320,000 unique visitors per week.

I like a few of these camouflage and hiding ones.

So sneaky!
https://survivalblog.com/camouflage-the-art-of-the-liar/
https://survivalblog.com/constructing-and-finding-hiding-places-by-eli-in-the-southwest/
https://survivalblog.com/letter-re-hidden-entrances-and-secret-rooms/
https://survivalblog.com/how-to-plan-and-plant-a-hidden-garden-by-survival-san/
https://survivalblog.com/hidden-storage-strategic-tools-security-items-part-2-old-bobbert/

 

[Zkribbler]

Long food lines? Really? We didn't have those in 2008 ...

Right, we had record use of food stamps.

Since then, the GOP has been working hard on their war against food stamps, so with the next recession, maybe we'll make food lines great again.

 

[FriendlyFire]

Actively cheering for the Australian housing market to totally collapse

I expect around a 20% Fall, there is still strong demand for housing, units and rent I dont see this changing the market into a toal collapse
The Banks are already putting the breaks on loans for homes they know its overheated. Its not like the US where the Banks were busy shoving loans and then repacking them into junk bonds.

Of course it could well collapse like a bomb.

Rual Republicans, look like they are prepared most farmers will lose money during a bad year and make money during good years. This will be the second bad year I suspect that they will probably double down, probably just long enough for Trump to be re-elected.

 

[luiz]

Well if the OP is so sure the market is collapsing soon, there are, you know, ways to make fortune out of this prescient knowledge. The most obvious one is simply shorting the market. Granted, if the collapse doesn't come soon you might run out of cash. But if you're so sure... Put some money where your mouth is!

 

[Lexicus]

I think we are likely still at least several years away from a recession. Of course, given the tax cuts and the deregulatory feces show in Washington the question isn't if, it's when.

 

[rah]

Yeah, cycles are the nature of the beast, and this one has been long. But just because it's been long doesn't mean the down part is imminent. It just means it will come eventually. Two more years would be nice. That timing would be good for me. I'm getting too old to have to wait for the next upturn.

 

[Hehehe]

Are you excited for the next big recession? Because its coming soon.

The stock market indicators all say that the market is overvalued on the DOW, NASDAQ, and S&P 500. They've historically never been so overvalued according to many economists, its even worse than 2007. The declines due to the Trump Trade Wars may be the break in the dam that we've all been waiting for to trigger this next major recession.

Get ready for:

- Over 4 million jobs lost
- 40% decline in markets
- Even more tent cities than 2007-2008
- Long enormous food lines
- Destruction of retirement savings
- And so much more!!

This should drag down the entire world economy as well.

Are you excited for "2018: The Recession strikes back" ?

Because the pwnage will be beautiful.

Yes, I am excited. The great recession has brought about a lot of division and political instability, but I'm sure that the great depression will fix that.

But yeah it seems like the central banks "fixed" the 2007 debt bubble popping by piling on more debt. I am not optimistic about the state of the economy

 

[FriendlyFire]

But yeah it seems like the central banks "fixed" the 2007 debt bubble popping by piling on more debt. I am not optimistic about the state of the economy

Well US Fed is nearly tapped out, it wont be able to bail out the banks again like it did before
Germany and its Northen countries are in a reasonable position to weather any depression, the southern EU countries are completely screwed though.