James Stuart
King
I haven't seen a thread for this, so I figured I'd start one. I don't know if anyone outside of Australia will be interested, and I haven't seen a single Victorian on the boards, but it can't hurt, and starting a thread is on my bucket list.
The election is this Saturday, and is for the control of Victoria, Australia's second most populous state. The two main parties battling it out for leadership are the incumbent Coalition (a coalition of the Liberal and National parties, commonly referred to as the LNP, or occasionally as the Liberal-National Party - which is incorrect terminology, but pobody's nerfect - led by Denis Napthine, and the opposition Australian Labor Party, commonly known as the ALP, or simply Labor, under Daniel Andrews.
Both of these men are career politicians. Andrews is a good twenty years Napthine's junior, and has been a member of Victoria's Leglislative Assembly (think Congress, House of Representatives, or House of Commons), commonly referred to as the Lower House, or simply House, since 2002, being chosen as leader after the ALP's shock defeat in the 2010 election. Napthine was first elected to the same body in 1988, but only became leader in 2013, when the previous Liberal leader, Ted Baillieu, was forced to resign the leadership - but was allowed to remain in the Leglislative Assembly - due to a scandal involving his Chief of Staff being caught on audiotape claiming that the LNP were deliberately undermining an enquiry into police corruption in Victoria.
Despite this, Napthine is very popular in Victoria, with 45% of those polled preferring him to Andrews, at 39%, with the remainder undecided. 45% approval is a very good number for an Australian political leader. Unfortunately for the incumbents, the popularity of their leader does not translate into popularity for the party as a whole. Labor leads the Coalition 56%-44% on a two-party preferred basis (there are other, smaller parties in Australian politics, so polls often ask who people prefer out of the two main parties, then ask who they prefer overall). I have been unable to find overall numbers when the Australian Greens and other minor parties are added to the mix.
There are several reasons for this. The proposed East-West Link, a highway linking parts of Victorian capital Melbourne's suburbs to the inner-city, is supported by the LNP, but opposed by the ALP. Roughly half of voters support it, but just as many either don't want it or don't care, and even many of its supporters believe that there are other infrastructure projects that should be funded first. The Federal Coalition, and its leader Tony Abbott, have claimed that the electon is a referendum on teh East-West Link,but there is very little truth to that.
The reality is that several scandals, such as the aforementioned Baillieu scandal, and the resignation - hours before his planned sacking - of Liberal Member Geoff Shaw, who was facing prosecution for fraud - have reduced the LNP government to a barely governable minority government; with Shaw's resignation from the LNP - on the same day as Napthine's ascenscion to the leadership, coincidentally - the LNP now only has 44 seats in the House(43 if one discounts the Speaker, who while a member of the LNP, is only allowed to vote on certain specific issues) to the ALP's 43 seats, and Shaw remains in the house as an independent. Shaw, while no longer a member of the LNP, is still ideologically on their side, and in order to pass most leglislation Napthine has been forced to cut several deals with Shaw; as Shaw, a nasty piece of work who may well be facing prison time soon, is understandably unpopular with the electorate, this hurts Napthine. Andrews, however, has also used Shaw's vote on occasion to block government leglisation, which embarrases the ALP. Both sides, while willing to take Shaw's vote, have claimed that the other party is trying to embarrass them by associating them with Shaw, which is quite humorous.
The Victorian Leglisative Council, (think Senate or House of Lords), commonly known as the Upper House, is usually even more of a hodgepodge, with various minor parties holding the balance of power. In contrast to Australia's Federal Upper House, or the Upper Houses of most Australian states, the Victorian Upper House is actually more cut-and-dried than the Lower House, with 21 of the 40 seats controlled by the Coalition, 16 by Labor, and 3 by the Greens.
The Greens and Labor almost always vote the same, though there are exceptions. It is rare for the Greens to vote the same as the LNP, and also rare, at least on a state level, for the LNP and ALP to vote the same; this happens in Federal politics sometimes, particularly on national security issues. It is also very unusual for a Member to break ranks with their party and 'cross the floor, voting with the other party/ parties. Since leglisation usually starts in the Lower House, gets voted upon, then sent to the Upper House to be voted on again, any leglisation the LNP gets through the Lower House is usually passed into law by their majority in the Upper House. Their difficulties in the Lower House, however, mean that the Upper House hasn't had all that much to do lately.
By far Napthine's biggest problem in the coming election, however, is theaforementioned Federal Coalition government. Tony Abbott can most accurately be described, even by LNP supporters, as almost certainly the worst Prime Minister in Australia's history. He has a clear majority in his Lower House, but the Upper House is more of the sort of hodgepodge I described earlier, with various minor parties controlling the balance of power, essentially forcing Abbott, whose idea of negotiation has always been all-or-nothing, to attempt to negotiate with multiple smaller parties to pass leglisation. This is not helped by the fact that most of leglisation has essentially consisted of measures that are very unpopular with the public, with attempts to raise taxes on the poor, alter laws to make it easier for banks and financial planners to rip off their clients, ending investigations into Rupert Murdoch's News Ltd., (which Abbott is a former columnist for) cutting the budgets of dozens of services nationwide, including, just last week, the highly popular public broadcaster the Australian Broadcasting Corporation (ABC). These cuts are largely seen by the electorate as ideological and selfish, rather than for sound economic reasons, as the LNP claims. Most people see it as a combination of the LNP's desire to eventually privatise most public assets, payback for ABC criticism of Abbott and the LNP, and throwing a bone to his old boss Murdoch, who competes (unsuccessfully, as of late) with the ABC, especially for the digital market.
Abbott has recently slumped to the equal lowest approval rating of any PM in Australian history - equalling his old opponent, Julia Gillard - in spite of mostly-favourable media coverage for the LNP from News Ltd., which dominates the Australian market. His incredibly harsh budget, using discredited austerity measures, debateable taxes, and the fact that he campaigned against Gillard for one lie, while having been caught out in what I overheard on the radio last week was now over 280 lies since his election, has made him widely hated, with rumours that his own party is planning to replace him with somebody else; the main question being which of the possible candidates will be chosen, as there are at least four challengers waiting in the wings to stab Abbott in the back, and they're almost certainly splitting the vote between them.
While state and Federal politics are separate in Australia, and Australians are generally believed to be smart enough to vote for state politicians on state issues, and Federal politicians on Federal issues, there is always some bleed-over. In Victoria's case, we are seeing possibly the worst bleed-over in Australia's history, with 23% of those polled saying they won't vote for the state LNP due to their dislike of Abbott and the Federal LNP. These numbers seem to indicate that, if Abbott were not PM, that Napthine would win comfortably. Abbott has already negatively affected the LNP in the South Australian state election this year, where his harsh budget and typical gaffes caused the LNP, widely tipped to defeat the incumbent ALP, suffered a shock defeat that almost no analysts predicted even the day before the election. It seems he will have the same effect in Victoria. This may well provoke an attempt on his leadership position next week, though that is far from certain.
Those same analysts who predicted a Coalition victory in South Australia are now prediction a Labor victory in Victoria. The current figures anticipate that Labor will win 51 seats to the LNP's 37, and there is the possibility that the Greens may even win two seats, changing the total to 50-36-2. The Upper House is, as usual, almost impossible to predict, but most analysts believe that preference deals will leave right-wing micro-parties with the balance of power, which is probably not good for anyone. The Lower House uses preferential voting, while the Upper House uses proportional voting.
Sorry for ths mammoth post, but I wanted to cover everything. Here are some interesting links:
Guardian Australia's Victorian Election Coverage.
Victorian Vote Compass.
The election is this Saturday, and is for the control of Victoria, Australia's second most populous state. The two main parties battling it out for leadership are the incumbent Coalition (a coalition of the Liberal and National parties, commonly referred to as the LNP, or occasionally as the Liberal-National Party - which is incorrect terminology, but pobody's nerfect - led by Denis Napthine, and the opposition Australian Labor Party, commonly known as the ALP, or simply Labor, under Daniel Andrews.
Both of these men are career politicians. Andrews is a good twenty years Napthine's junior, and has been a member of Victoria's Leglislative Assembly (think Congress, House of Representatives, or House of Commons), commonly referred to as the Lower House, or simply House, since 2002, being chosen as leader after the ALP's shock defeat in the 2010 election. Napthine was first elected to the same body in 1988, but only became leader in 2013, when the previous Liberal leader, Ted Baillieu, was forced to resign the leadership - but was allowed to remain in the Leglislative Assembly - due to a scandal involving his Chief of Staff being caught on audiotape claiming that the LNP were deliberately undermining an enquiry into police corruption in Victoria.
Despite this, Napthine is very popular in Victoria, with 45% of those polled preferring him to Andrews, at 39%, with the remainder undecided. 45% approval is a very good number for an Australian political leader. Unfortunately for the incumbents, the popularity of their leader does not translate into popularity for the party as a whole. Labor leads the Coalition 56%-44% on a two-party preferred basis (there are other, smaller parties in Australian politics, so polls often ask who people prefer out of the two main parties, then ask who they prefer overall). I have been unable to find overall numbers when the Australian Greens and other minor parties are added to the mix.
There are several reasons for this. The proposed East-West Link, a highway linking parts of Victorian capital Melbourne's suburbs to the inner-city, is supported by the LNP, but opposed by the ALP. Roughly half of voters support it, but just as many either don't want it or don't care, and even many of its supporters believe that there are other infrastructure projects that should be funded first. The Federal Coalition, and its leader Tony Abbott, have claimed that the electon is a referendum on teh East-West Link,but there is very little truth to that.
The reality is that several scandals, such as the aforementioned Baillieu scandal, and the resignation - hours before his planned sacking - of Liberal Member Geoff Shaw, who was facing prosecution for fraud - have reduced the LNP government to a barely governable minority government; with Shaw's resignation from the LNP - on the same day as Napthine's ascenscion to the leadership, coincidentally - the LNP now only has 44 seats in the House(43 if one discounts the Speaker, who while a member of the LNP, is only allowed to vote on certain specific issues) to the ALP's 43 seats, and Shaw remains in the house as an independent. Shaw, while no longer a member of the LNP, is still ideologically on their side, and in order to pass most leglislation Napthine has been forced to cut several deals with Shaw; as Shaw, a nasty piece of work who may well be facing prison time soon, is understandably unpopular with the electorate, this hurts Napthine. Andrews, however, has also used Shaw's vote on occasion to block government leglisation, which embarrases the ALP. Both sides, while willing to take Shaw's vote, have claimed that the other party is trying to embarrass them by associating them with Shaw, which is quite humorous.
The Victorian Leglisative Council, (think Senate or House of Lords), commonly known as the Upper House, is usually even more of a hodgepodge, with various minor parties holding the balance of power. In contrast to Australia's Federal Upper House, or the Upper Houses of most Australian states, the Victorian Upper House is actually more cut-and-dried than the Lower House, with 21 of the 40 seats controlled by the Coalition, 16 by Labor, and 3 by the Greens.
The Greens and Labor almost always vote the same, though there are exceptions. It is rare for the Greens to vote the same as the LNP, and also rare, at least on a state level, for the LNP and ALP to vote the same; this happens in Federal politics sometimes, particularly on national security issues. It is also very unusual for a Member to break ranks with their party and 'cross the floor, voting with the other party/ parties. Since leglisation usually starts in the Lower House, gets voted upon, then sent to the Upper House to be voted on again, any leglisation the LNP gets through the Lower House is usually passed into law by their majority in the Upper House. Their difficulties in the Lower House, however, mean that the Upper House hasn't had all that much to do lately.
By far Napthine's biggest problem in the coming election, however, is theaforementioned Federal Coalition government. Tony Abbott can most accurately be described, even by LNP supporters, as almost certainly the worst Prime Minister in Australia's history. He has a clear majority in his Lower House, but the Upper House is more of the sort of hodgepodge I described earlier, with various minor parties controlling the balance of power, essentially forcing Abbott, whose idea of negotiation has always been all-or-nothing, to attempt to negotiate with multiple smaller parties to pass leglisation. This is not helped by the fact that most of leglisation has essentially consisted of measures that are very unpopular with the public, with attempts to raise taxes on the poor, alter laws to make it easier for banks and financial planners to rip off their clients, ending investigations into Rupert Murdoch's News Ltd., (which Abbott is a former columnist for) cutting the budgets of dozens of services nationwide, including, just last week, the highly popular public broadcaster the Australian Broadcasting Corporation (ABC). These cuts are largely seen by the electorate as ideological and selfish, rather than for sound economic reasons, as the LNP claims. Most people see it as a combination of the LNP's desire to eventually privatise most public assets, payback for ABC criticism of Abbott and the LNP, and throwing a bone to his old boss Murdoch, who competes (unsuccessfully, as of late) with the ABC, especially for the digital market.
Abbott has recently slumped to the equal lowest approval rating of any PM in Australian history - equalling his old opponent, Julia Gillard - in spite of mostly-favourable media coverage for the LNP from News Ltd., which dominates the Australian market. His incredibly harsh budget, using discredited austerity measures, debateable taxes, and the fact that he campaigned against Gillard for one lie, while having been caught out in what I overheard on the radio last week was now over 280 lies since his election, has made him widely hated, with rumours that his own party is planning to replace him with somebody else; the main question being which of the possible candidates will be chosen, as there are at least four challengers waiting in the wings to stab Abbott in the back, and they're almost certainly splitting the vote between them.
While state and Federal politics are separate in Australia, and Australians are generally believed to be smart enough to vote for state politicians on state issues, and Federal politicians on Federal issues, there is always some bleed-over. In Victoria's case, we are seeing possibly the worst bleed-over in Australia's history, with 23% of those polled saying they won't vote for the state LNP due to their dislike of Abbott and the Federal LNP. These numbers seem to indicate that, if Abbott were not PM, that Napthine would win comfortably. Abbott has already negatively affected the LNP in the South Australian state election this year, where his harsh budget and typical gaffes caused the LNP, widely tipped to defeat the incumbent ALP, suffered a shock defeat that almost no analysts predicted even the day before the election. It seems he will have the same effect in Victoria. This may well provoke an attempt on his leadership position next week, though that is far from certain.
Those same analysts who predicted a Coalition victory in South Australia are now prediction a Labor victory in Victoria. The current figures anticipate that Labor will win 51 seats to the LNP's 37, and there is the possibility that the Greens may even win two seats, changing the total to 50-36-2. The Upper House is, as usual, almost impossible to predict, but most analysts believe that preference deals will leave right-wing micro-parties with the balance of power, which is probably not good for anyone. The Lower House uses preferential voting, while the Upper House uses proportional voting.
Sorry for ths mammoth post, but I wanted to cover everything. Here are some interesting links:
Guardian Australia's Victorian Election Coverage.
Victorian Vote Compass.
