Zardnaar
Deity
Latest Polling
Lab 26.5%
National 39.1%
ACT 8.8%
Greens 14.2%
NZFirst 5.2%
TPM 2.2%
These are the only parties that will get into parliament (5% threshold, TPM has an electorate seat gets in that way.
Main blocks are left/right Labour+Greens and National+ACT. National and labour centre right/left, Greens progressive left.
TPM is kind of a Maori nationalism party broadly left wing with some radical race based ideas (eg they took down claims of Maori genetic superiority from their website recently).
NZFirst is a reactionary anti woke right wing socially type party with some centrist policies. ACT is hard right neo libs dogwhistling for anti Vax, gun nuts American type stuff.
So poo sandwich then. Polls have been clear for months Labour's going to lose the election down from 51% three years ago. 6% roughly have driftef to the Greens but they usually underperformed on election day and come up shortly 2%. 59% combined down to 40.7. 18% roughly swung right. The right is pushing coalition of chaos line with Labour/Greens/TPM.
There's not any momentum nor any hope going by media coverage of Labour. NZ First might not get 5% though which might just bump ACT+ National over the line.
NZF has ruled out working with labour. Such a promise isn't rock solid the leader has gone the other way before. ACT doesn't want to work with them but may if they have to eat a poo sandwich. Labour and National have both said they would work with NZ first. Generally everyone doesn't like him but kingmaker type role for the third time. NZF leader generally seen as a handbrake by progressives and poison by the right.
So most likely we are looking at some form o reactionary right wing government. All 3 right wing parties have lurched right mostly tax cuts, run down public service, help out the rich and they're not even bothering to hide it. Electorate hates Labour, progressives like the Greens but not enough of them.
So here's my options.
1. Don't vote. Bleah only done this once before when Labour won in a landslide.
2. Hold my nose and vote Labour or split vote labour/Greens like last time. I live in a labour stronghold the local MP will win without doing anything or trying.
3. Hold my nose and vote NZF then go get drunk. Basically a strategic poison pill type vote. Last time NZF went with National the coalition fell apart and weak government for a year and then they got turfed out. Basically a handbrake on ACT/National. Slim chance they might put Labour/Greens in a'la 2017 but they won't get much done but maybe avoid a chainsaw to Social spending. Win/win maybe.
Probably won't vote for anyone else they all make my teeth itch. Right wing governments usually last 3 terms (9 years) left wing averages out 6 years (3, 2, 2,1 terms last 4 governments).
A fairly bleak and underwhelming options all round tbh. Unless you're a landlord,investor, farmer, corporate type it's looking good.
Lab 26.5%
National 39.1%
ACT 8.8%
Greens 14.2%
NZFirst 5.2%
TPM 2.2%
These are the only parties that will get into parliament (5% threshold, TPM has an electorate seat gets in that way.
Main blocks are left/right Labour+Greens and National+ACT. National and labour centre right/left, Greens progressive left.
TPM is kind of a Maori nationalism party broadly left wing with some radical race based ideas (eg they took down claims of Maori genetic superiority from their website recently).
NZFirst is a reactionary anti woke right wing socially type party with some centrist policies. ACT is hard right neo libs dogwhistling for anti Vax, gun nuts American type stuff.
So poo sandwich then. Polls have been clear for months Labour's going to lose the election down from 51% three years ago. 6% roughly have driftef to the Greens but they usually underperformed on election day and come up shortly 2%. 59% combined down to 40.7. 18% roughly swung right. The right is pushing coalition of chaos line with Labour/Greens/TPM.
There's not any momentum nor any hope going by media coverage of Labour. NZ First might not get 5% though which might just bump ACT+ National over the line.
NZF has ruled out working with labour. Such a promise isn't rock solid the leader has gone the other way before. ACT doesn't want to work with them but may if they have to eat a poo sandwich. Labour and National have both said they would work with NZ first. Generally everyone doesn't like him but kingmaker type role for the third time. NZF leader generally seen as a handbrake by progressives and poison by the right.
So most likely we are looking at some form o reactionary right wing government. All 3 right wing parties have lurched right mostly tax cuts, run down public service, help out the rich and they're not even bothering to hide it. Electorate hates Labour, progressives like the Greens but not enough of them.
So here's my options.
1. Don't vote. Bleah only done this once before when Labour won in a landslide.
2. Hold my nose and vote Labour or split vote labour/Greens like last time. I live in a labour stronghold the local MP will win without doing anything or trying.
3. Hold my nose and vote NZF then go get drunk. Basically a strategic poison pill type vote. Last time NZF went with National the coalition fell apart and weak government for a year and then they got turfed out. Basically a handbrake on ACT/National. Slim chance they might put Labour/Greens in a'la 2017 but they won't get much done but maybe avoid a chainsaw to Social spending. Win/win maybe.
Probably won't vote for anyone else they all make my teeth itch. Right wing governments usually last 3 terms (9 years) left wing averages out 6 years (3, 2, 2,1 terms last 4 governments).
A fairly bleak and underwhelming options all round tbh. Unless you're a landlord,investor, farmer, corporate type it's looking good.
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