Australian Politics

[Zardnaar]

Liberals lost big time. Previously safe seats and moderate ministers gone.

As LNP Coaltion government they took the previous win on the back of Nth Queensland conservatism as an ok to move to the Right. That's not what most Australians had voted for. It alienated their more moderate centre right support.

Having lost their own moderates they are now stuck with the leading candidate for leadership, Dutton, still being from the Liberal Right.

Votes they lost didn't go to Labor though. Labour hasn't had a sweeping win. Votes went to Teal green independents, (centre right) or Green party (Left ). Labor not going to get enough numbers to govern without support.

Ah labour here smashed National last election. They lost several safe seats and labour+greens got 59%. But it's now neck and neck and I expect those seats to flip back.

Zatds theory of political gravity go to far left/right get smashed lose election.

They normally pick a hard left or right candidate post defeat and have polls drop even further.

 

[Samson]

Cartoon from the grundiad. I do not know how it reads from down under, but from up here it characterises how I feel that at least one major contributor to AGW is finding environmentalism an election winning strategy.

Spoiler Cartoon strip :

 

[EnglishEdward]

Yeah well, as a determined Pommie who has never been down under,
I'd guess that the kangaroos became a bit disillusioned with those in
hock to big coal and thought that doing more with solar power is better.

 

[Arwon]

Liberals lost big time. Previously safe seats and moderate ministers gone.

As LNP Coaltion government they took the previous win on the back of Nth Queensland conservatism as an ok to move to the Right. That's not what most Australians had voted for. It alienated their more moderate centre right support.

Having lost their own moderates they are now stuck with the leading candidate for leadership, Dutton, still being from the Liberal Right.

Votes they lost didn't go to Labor though. Labour hasn't had a sweeping win. Votes went to Teal green independents, (centre right) or Green party (Left ). Labor not going to get enough numbers to govern without support.

Labor will finish with a very small absolute majority of about 76 or 77 (their current 73 on the ABC plus Macnamara and Richmond nearly certain, Lyons likely, and Gilmore and Brisbane possible) but I don't think that'd be much different to 74 in practice. With a crossbench this big they would find support anyway, and they'll likely cultivate relationships with them even as a majority. The insurance they get as a buffer to keep minority govt in future elections is too big to ignore.

It's a massive loss to the libs, their urban moderate core got decapitated. The whole of Sydney Harbour, the Parramatta River, and the coast from the northern beaches down to Bondi are no longer theirs. They are left with 1 seat in Adelaide, 1 in Perth, just 3 in Melbourne. All their formerly safe rich city seats, held for decades, are gone.

 

[Arwon]

Antony has also manually put the David Pocock party's David Pocock into the "likely" column , and he said he can't see anyone else winning that seat. Essentially confirming this beautiful Territory haa left itself without a single federal Coalition representation, the first major party shutout by a state or territory since the Senate went to STV in the 40s.

 

[E.man]

Ah labour here smashed National last election. They lost several safe seats and labour+greens got 59%. But it's now neck and neck and I expect those seats to flip back.

Zatds theory of political gravity go to far left/right get smashed lose election.

They normally pick a hard left or right candidate post defeat and have polls drop even further.

As pointed out by @Arwon its looking like I got it wrong and Labor might squeak over the line to govern in a slim majority. As he points out they have support from the Greens crossbench on the basics of supply at the very least and on some general policy positions.

Liberals are going to have to moderate their policies if they want to reclaim seats next time. They will get some votes back purely because Captain Bullspit pissed off a whole lot of people.

 

[E.man]

Antony has also manually put the David Pocock party's David Pocock into the "likely" column, all but confirming this beautiful Territory haa left itself without a single federal Coalition representation, the first major party shutout by a state or territory since the Senate went to STV in the 40s.

View attachment 629025

Seems he got backing from Climate 200 but didn't get to be a Teal because he's a bloke?

STV?

 

[E.man]

Yeah well, as a determined Pommie who has never been down under,
I'd guess that the kangaroos became a bit disillusioned with those in
hock to big coal and thought that doing more with solar power is better.

No, we all just went for a sausage. That's downunder democracy for you.

 

[E.man]

Antony has also manually put the David Pocock party's David Pocock into the "likely" column, all but confirming this beautiful Territory haa left itself without a single federal Coalition representation, the first major party shutout by a state or territory since the Senate went to STV in the 40s.

View attachment 629025

Might be different if Senate representation was reviewed. We get 2 Tassie get 12.
Can you imagine if 'Canberra ' was going to get more say in parliament? Haters would be loud with their ignorance about 'Canberra ' telling them what to do. Might send us another million cookers.

 

[Arwon]

Seems he got backing from Climate 200 but didn't get to be a Teal because he's a bloke?

STV?

Single transferable vote, ie preferential multi member. Before that the senate had a system which generally gave all seats to the winning party or something.

He's not a teal because the teal label implies blue tinted with green, ie conservatives and centre right who care about climate change. A lot of those teal Indies are posh business types, at least two of whom literally have family members that have been ministers in Liberal cabinets.

Pocock is pretty much straight-up left, by contrast. He's mostly known for being arrested chaining himself to coal mining machinery and his gay rights advocacy including not getting married until we had marriage equality.

 

[E.man]

Single transferable vote, ie preferential multi member. Before that the senate had a system which generally gave all seats to the winning party or something.

He's not a teal because the teal label implies blue tinted with green, ie conservatives and centre right who care about climate change. A lot of those teal Indies are posh business types, at least two of whom literally have family members that have been ministers in Liberal cabinets.

Pocock is pretty much straight-up left, by contrast. He's mostly known for being arrested chaining himself to coal mining machinery and his gay rights advocacy including not getting married until we had marriage equality.

Ah yes.
I saw that the Teals were centre right disaffected Libs and Pocock's protesting past but wasn't sure where he was placed generally.
This result backs up from the ACT election.

Interesting how he massively outpolled the Green party. Down to the financial backing and the high profile misinformation campaign backfire do you think ?

 

[Arwon]

Strategic vote. Greens has 19% in the House, 10% in the senate and Labor has 45% and 33%. Normally the Greens vote in the senate is about even or a little higher. People locked in behind David to get rid of Zed.

 

[Tee Kay]

My partner's family lives beachside in Mackellar. Deep deep deep blue territory. Last week was the first time I heard them say anything critical of the Liberal Party. Now represented by an independent (Olympic athlete and doctor with four degrees) after a 15% swing. Never thought I'd see the day but here we are.

 

[E.man]

My partner's family lives beachside in Mackellar. Deep deep deep blue territory. Last week was the first time I heard them say anything critical of the Liberal Party. Now represented by an independent (Olympic athlete and doctor with four degrees) after a 15% swing. Never thought I'd see the day but here we are.

The rise of the Teals is a measure of how far the Libs went wrong. They could have all been Lib candidates at another time.

 

[Arwon]

At least two of them have profiles which read like "[candidate] went to the elite St Girls Private School and then studied at Oxford, before becoming CEO of her father's financial services business. Her grandfather was a minister in the Menzies government"

 

[E.man]

Antony has also manually put the David Pocock party's David Pocock into the "likely" column , and he said he can't see anyone else winning that seat. Essentially confirming this beautiful Territory haa left itself without a single federal Coalition representation, the first major party shutout by a state or territory since the Senate went to STV in the 40s.

View attachment 629025

Pocock making his presence felt as balance of power every time an issue comes up.

Now we have The Voice issue and Dutton even splits what's remained of the conservatives.

 

[Tee Kay]

Pocock making his presence felt as balance of power every time an issue comes up.

Now we have The Voice issue and Dutton even splits what's remained of the conservatives.

Been very impressed with Pocock. Just about all the independents actually, even the ones in the HoR who don't hold the balance of power but still making a lot of noise.

I've seen a lot of the commentariat write off the LNP and I wouldn't just yet. 53-47 national TPP is not "existential crisis" territory. Voice support is only going down and down. Queensland state election is very much in play. And if bread and butter issues don't improve soon (homebuilders going bankrupt, rent catastrophically high, infrastructure projects delayed or cancelled in NSW and Victoria, healthcare still in crisis) we will see a right-wing backlash.

 

[E.man]

Been very impressed with Pocock. Just about all the independents actually, even the ones in the HoR who don't hold the balance of power but still making a lot of noise.

I've seen a lot of the commentariat write off the LNP and I wouldn't just yet. 53-47 national TPP is not "existential crisis" territory. Voice support is only going down and down. Queensland state election is very much in play. And if bread and butter issues don't improve soon (homebuilders going bankrupt, rent catastrophically high, infrastructure projects delayed or cancelled in NSW and Victoria, healthcare still in crisis) we will see a right-wing backlash.

Lydia Thorpe and the chaos in Alice etc aren't doing it any favours.

QLD run conservative federally and Labour in State. Voice being national they will prob go against.

That TPP isn't terminal as you say but they are split on the voice and moved further to the right with Dutton.

Is TPP relevant since it's not reflected in the House ?

 

[Zardnaar]

I've see articles predicting the liberals are done but bit premature. Our main parties have fallen down to 20-25% support but they bounce back.

Is that a narrative being pushed in Australia?

 

[E.man]

I've see articles predicting the liberals are done but bit premature. Our main parties have fallen down to 20-25% support but they bounce back.

Is that a narrative being pushed in Australia?

Saw Dutton this morning pushing that line. He's got to say something cos he's just digging a bigger hole.

They lost seats to Teal (green conservative) independents. These were seats that would never go to the left. This is where they need to look to recover first. No sign that Dutton can do that.

The LNP split on the Voice weakens them even further.

Labor gets support from Teal and Greens and Independents in the House because LNP has no credible alternative ideas.