bad great generals

[Jastrow]

Isn't the general consensus that if you can explain QM or even understand it, you've really NOT understood it? Cause I sure didn't. (going to follow that course again this year )

Probably... lol!

I certainly dont claim to understand all of QM. Heck, even the likes of Bohr, Einstein, Schroeding, and Heisenberg where in constant arguments about some of the finer points, so if they could not always grasp all of it, then I certainly dont expect to.

I do however that I understand it well enough (as I am sure you have as well), to know that it makes no statement which would in any way support the claim that after 50H, the 50 flip is more likely to be T then H. In fact, I cant wait to see what argument the poster of that would want to put up... The only think I can imagine that is goes anywhere close to this direction is trying to view the coin as a Einstein-Podolsky-Rosen state-set. Of course, this only aplies to entangled states (which repeated coin tosses are not for at least 4 different reasons), and even if they were magically entangled, there are multiple reasons to do with the energy scales involved, why EPR collaps would not apply.

 

[supersoulty]

What I have noticed is that my battle success seems to be streaky. Sometimes, I will lose 4 95% battles in a row and then win 3 50% ones. On the whole though, I have noticed that I am losing far more "easy" fights than I used to

 

[Commander Bello]

Just for all who got confused on this topic:
What kcbrett5 states is that there is no randomness at all.

Why? Because you will never know how many times a coin has been flipped before you do it. So, if 50H means that the next flip is to come back with T, this actually means predetermination of that flip.

If you would accept this theory, the next flip of your coin would be predetermined as well, as it has flipped a million times already (in the mint, when it got pressed; when it was handed over between people and so on...).
So, there already has been a streak of results.
Following his argumentation, this already has determined the next result - voila, you don't have a chance, you only can see and observe the result of the determination.



Edit: pressed "save" to early. Not to be mistaken: I think Mr. kcbrett5 is completely wrong with what he is saying.

 

[Pantastic]

What I have noticed is that my battle success seems to be streaky. Sometimes, I will lose 4 95% battles in a row and then win 3 50% ones. On the whole though, I have noticed that I am losing far more "easy" fights than I used to

Actual random numbers have more streakiness than people expect. If you see a sequence like HTHTHTHTHTH it's probably not actually random, even though it's the kind of thing most people trying to make a random-looking sequence would come up with. Also, the 'seems to be' is important - if you're just kind of remembering stuff that happened and not tracking it, you're going to notice streaks but not the times when it's more plain.

 

[Vietcong]

yea gg seem to die alot.

what i did was insted of giveing mien direct combat promotions, i gave my gg unit all 3 medic promotions. and the -50% from experance needed to get promos upgrade.
i didnt throw him into combat as much eather, insted i tryed holding him off for medic duties, and he worked wonders.

 

[Ryuujin]

Regarding whether first strike is reflected in the combat odds, my experience strongly suggests that it is. I played my first Warlords game with Qin, and crushed Napoleon with stacks of Drill III+ Cho-Ko-Nu's. The units with more Drill promotions did show higher odds, and the odds shown were signifcantly higher than it would have shown for an unpromoted Swordsman, for example. One or two first stikes alone doesn't seem to be enough to significantly alter the odds, though.

As far as the coin flip thing goes, the odds are even regardless of whether you view as an isolated flip or within the context of the previous fifty flips. The odds of getting a SEQUENCE of 50H followed by 1T is exactly the same as getting 51H. Risking your life savings on the outcome of the flip would be monumentally stupid, unless your savings are small and you enjoy throwing money away.

 

[Zilch]

This topic reminds me of a nice statisical puzzle.
You get to the final of a quiz show and are given the choice of five boxes. One of which has the million dollar prize in it. You choose a box. The host then opens one of the other boxes and shows this it is empty. You now have an opportunity to change your mind. What do you do and why?

 

[El Koeno]

This topic reminds me of a nice statisical puzzle.
You get to the final of a quiz show and are given the choice of five boxes. One of which has the million dollar prize in it. You choose a box. The host then opens one of the other boxes and shows this it is empty. You now have an opportunity to change your mind. What do you do and why?

That's a good one. I think I wouldn't change my mind, even though I know I should because it would actually double my chance of winning.

 

[kcbrett5]

As far as the coin flip thing goes, the odds are even regardless of whether you view as an isolated flip or within the context of the previous fifty flips. The odds of getting a SEQUENCE of 50H followed by 1T is exactly the same as getting 51H. Risking your life savings on the outcome of the flip would be monumentally stupid, unless your savings are small and you enjoy throwing money away.

This is the same mistake that everyone keeps making over and over and over. Of course the odds of getting 50 heads followed by a tails is the same as getting 50 heads followed by a heads. I have never attempted to say otherwise. Everyone just misinterprets what I am saying.

So, one last time. My point is that the odds of flipping 51 heads without a single tails are astronomical. I am not suggesting that the tails has to be on the 51st flip. I am saying that in an honest game with fair coins, you cannot flip 51 straight heads. I think the odds are less than 1 in 100 quadrillion.

If anyone has interpreted anything I have said to mean otherwise, then you need to go back and re-read it. Only this time, have an open mind and attempt to understand what I am actually saying.

But if I were given the opportunity to bet on whether or not you could flip 51 straight heads, and I watched you miraculously do the first 50 flips and they were all heads, I would still bet everything I own on the 51st. Of course, this entire premise is preposterous, but you already knew that anyway.

 

[Draconian]

This is the same mistake that everyone keeps making over and over and over. Of course the odds of getting 50 heads followed by a tails is the same as getting 50 heads followed by a heads. I have never attempted to say otherwise. Everyone just misinterprets what I am saying.

Read post #64, or in short

Flip a coin continuously until you get 5 heads or tails in a row. Then record what the 6th flip is. Repeat this as often as you want until you have a large enough sample. Then see what all of your 6th flips were and I guarantee you they will not be 50/50. Try it. You will see.

Exchange 5 with 50 and 6 with 51 and it's exactly the same.

 

[kcbrett5]

Read post #64, or in short



Exchange 5 with 50 and 6 with 51 and it's exactly the same.

Exactly! You still aren't getting it! In that scenario, I have discarded all results that don't end up with 5 straight heads. So essentially, I am saying that the odds of flipping 6 straight of either heads or tails are much less than flipping 5 of one and 1 of the other in any sequence. Not just 5 straight and then the other in the 6th slot. Its just that we are dismissing any sequence that doesn't begin with 5 straight. That means, we are discarding the vast majority of tosses since the odds of 5 straight are much lower than 50/50.

Now look, there is still room for argument with that thought. But if you don't even understand my point, please stop arguing against it. You are losing more and more credibility with each comment based on your false assumptions.

 

[Ammar]

So essentially, I am saying that the odds of flipping 6 straight of either heads or tails are much less than flipping 5 of one and 1 of the other in any sequence.

So far, that's true.

Not just 5 straight and then the other in the 6th slot. Its just that we are dismissing any sequence that doesn't begin with 5 straight. That means, we are discarding the vast majority of tosses since the odds of 5 straight are much lower than 50/50.

Yes, and the moment you discard the majority of the tosses you get a chance of 50% to flip another head. Because only two possible sequences actually remain :

HHHHHT
and
HHHHHH

and all exact sequences (order is important of course) have the same probabilty to show up.

 

[PennHead]

So essentially, I am saying that the odds of flipping 6 straight of either heads or tails are much less than flipping 5 of one and 1 of the other in any sequence. Not just 5 straight and then the other in the 6th slot. Its just that we are dismissing any sequence that doesn't begin with 5 straight. That means, we are discarding the vast majority of tosses since the odds of 5 straight are much lower than 50/50.

What you say above is correct. However, it's not your original argument. Just to remind you again, your original argument:

Flip a coin continuously until you get 5 heads or tails in a row. Then record what the 6th flip is. Repeat this as often as you want until you have a large enough sample. Then see what all of your 6th flips were and I guarantee you they will not be 50/50. Try it. You will see.

Nowhere in here are you talking about 6 straight vs 5H1T in any sequence. You tell us to flip and record only what the sixth flip is after 5 in a row. You then assert that it will not be 50/50. Your suggested experiment deals only with the sixth flip after 5 straight.

So Draconian is correct to point out that post #64 contradicts post #149.

And after it all, you still say you'd bet on that 51st flip.

But if I were given the opportunity to bet on whether or not you could flip 51 straight heads, and I watched you miraculously do the first 50 flips and they were all heads, I would still bet everything I own on the 51st.

Why? Ignore for the moment the odds of getting the 50 heads; we all know the odds of that are astronomical. For this argument, those first 50 flips are a given. They already happened. We're assuming a perfectly random system. What is special about this 51st flip that you'd bet everything you own on what is still a 50/50 chance? Or do you believe it isn't 50/50?

 

[Pantastic]

But if I were given the opportunity to bet on whether or not you could flip 51 straight heads, and I watched you miraculously do the first 50 flips and they were all heads, I would still bet everything I own on the 51st. Of course, this entire premise is preposterous, but you already knew that anyway.

Then you'd bet everything you own on a 50-50 coin flip, which is not the brightest thing I've heard. The previous coin flips have no effect on the next one, there aren't any magical rays affecting the coin; if there are, then the method you're using to calculate that the odds of 51 straight heads is invalid.

If you're looking at it realistically, if someone flips 50 heads in a row I'm going to suspect that the coin is biased or they're cheating and controlling the flips, so it would certainly be crazy to bet on the next flip.

 

[kcbrett5]

What you say above is correct. However, it's not your original argument. Just to remind you again, your original argument:

Now you are just being ignorant. My main point now is that not one of you is even understanding what my original point was. So please don't attempt to tell me what I was trying to say.

Lets make this even simpler so I don't lose the small minds out there. If you were given the chance with even odds to bet money that someone couldn't flip 5 straight heads or tails, would you do it? The odds are strongly in your favor. Now, if you are given the chance to bet that same person won't make 6 in a row, or 10 in a row or 20 in a row, would you do it? If not you are a fool. Because the likelihood of that happening is very low.

Now to those of you who keep saying the coin is rigged, that is the dumbest of all arguments being made. Its like saying you can't think for yourself so you will say something witty or clever instead. Obviously for the sake of this discussion we will need to assume perfect randomness.

 

[Teg_Navanis]

kcbrett, that's the downside of arguing on the net. You can't simply claim that we misunderstood you. You made your point pretty clear and it's still here for us to quote.

Edit: Let me add a to that, as I'm beginning to seriously doubt your sincerity.

 

[kcbrett5]

Nowhere in here are you talking about 6 straight vs 5H1T in any sequence. You tell us to flip and record only what the sixth flip is after 5 in a row. You then assert that it will not be 50/50. Your suggested experiment deals only with the sixth flip after 5 straight.

Wrong again. But let me enlighten you again. And please try to forget how you have misunderstood me previously. Lets take 5 in a row for starters. What are the odds of getting 5 in a row? 1 in 32 right? Do we agree so far?

What are the odds of getting 6 in a row? 1 in 64 right? Still with me?

So which would you rather bet your money against. Someone getting 5 in a row or someone getting 6 in a row?

C'mon people, is this really that complicated for you? Why do I feel like we are in 3rd grade here.

 

[kcbrett5]

kcbrett, that's the downside of arguing on the net. You can't simply claim that we misunderstood you. You made your point pretty clear and it's still here for us to quote.

I am learning that there are many down sides to arguing on the net, but that isn't one of them. Feel free to go back and re-read it all as much as you want. You will see that I am saying the same thing now I was several days ago. Many of you just assumed you knew I was saying something else. And these people have built this entire story around their false assumptions.

On the other hand, maybe my whole point has nothing to do with statistics. Its possible that my field isn't math at all. Maybe it is a sociology experiment. Maybe I just want to see how many times I can get the same people to read the same few sentences on a website. But of course, maybe not.

 

[Ryuujin]

This is the same mistake that everyone keeps making over and over and over. Of course the odds of getting 50 heads followed by a tails is the same as getting 50 heads followed by a heads. I have never attempted to say otherwise. Everyone just misinterprets what I am saying.

Let's see here, drkodos said...

Weird segue: If a coin is flipped 50 times and lands heads up each time, there is still a fifty percent chance it will land heads up on the very next flip. Thus, I agree with those posters arguing that statiscal analysis is mostly misunderstood by many people and that human brains tend to improperly weight personal experiences in relation to mathematical probabilities.

...and you replied by saying...

There are so many problems with this logic I don't know where to begin.
1st-if you land on heads 50 times in a row I am betting my life savings on that 51st flip being tails. You cannot view it independently like you suggest. True, the odds of the 51st flip are still 50/50. But the odds of hitting 51 in a row are astronomical.

What the rest of us are explaining is that there was no problem at all with drkodos's logic. If you land on heads 50 times in a row, you can view the 51st flip independently like he suggests. True, the odds of hitting 51 in a row are astronomical when starting out, but if you've already hit 50 in a row then the odds of hitting 51 is no longer astronomical.

So, one last time. My point is that the odds of flipping 51 heads without a single tails are astronomical. I am not suggesting that the tails has to be on the 51st flip. I am saying that in an honest game with fair coins, you cannot flip 51 straight heads. I think the odds are less than 1 in 100 quadrillion.

If anyone has interpreted anything I have said to mean otherwise, then you need to go back and re-read it. Only this time, have an open mind and attempt to understand what I am actually saying.

So what you were REALLY trying to say is that you can't flip 51 heads in a row because, odds are, you'd flip a tails sometime before you got to 51. Gotcha. So, umm, no crap. Were you trying to make a point?

But if I were given the opportunity to bet on whether or not you could flip 51 straight heads, and I watched you miraculously do the first 50 flips and they were all heads, I would still bet everything I own on the 51st. Of course, this entire premise is preposterous, but you already knew that anyway.

And if you made that bet back on the 1st flip, it would've been a very smart bet. But if you have a chance to withdraw that bet before the 51st flip and don't, the previously astronomical odds don't change the fact that it is now a 50/50 proposition.

 

[kcbrett5]

Yes. Congratulations.