Man, the more I think about it, the more I think Kwame Nkrumah's the perfect leader for Rise & Fall. Great for city loyalty/defections, diplomacy, and corralling free cities. I have a very strong feeling he'll be in R&F as the leader of Ghana.
Netherlands (focused on trade, alliances, governors and expansion. Almost a given).
Korea (overdue, we desperately need science civs (assuming they will be), gold age mechanic, female ruler)
Mongolia (probably the most wanted civ (+ civ leader icon), focused on expansion (agressive city flipping?) and horses)
Likely
Isabella of Spain (focusing on exploration, bonuses for governor overseas, specific golden age mechanic, female ruler)
Inca's (mountain bonuses (housing / food) , high loyalty, infrastructure bonuses, golden age mechanic)
From here on, it will probably be more guessing. I don't think we will see every major civilization in this expansion. They will add something fresh and new to the expansion as well.
Good chances
Ottomans (like already been said fits trade, governors, new expansion and even loyalty / city flipping mechanics. A much demanded civ. Focused on maritime warfare, expansion-driven and economy/trade, as well tolerance to other cultures.
And now we still have (only) three options left. I think they will try to add one or two new civs. Three will be too much. But i certainly don't think they will add no civilizations. It's easier to include new civs in previously less explored regions of the America's and Africa, and since we don't have an African civ, let's explore there.
The African option
Previously included in civilization series civ's are Ethiopia, Mali, Morocco, Songhai, Carthage and Zulu, and i think this will be it as long i don't forget new civs. New possible civs could include Benin/Dahomey, Ghana/Ashanti, South-Africa, Swahili/Kilwa, Nigeria/Sokoto or Zimbabwe. I think we will most likely see Zimbabwe. We won't see South-Africa. Swahili (and Zimbabwe) has the disadvantage that there is already an empire in Central / Southern Africa. Western Africa still doesn't have a civ, but I feel like Mali won't be in (yet). Ethiopia is also an interesting possibility, but wouldn't be completely fresh / new, except if they would decide to include a different personality than Haile Selassie, but Menelik. Carthage and Zulu are also possibilities, but I don't think Carthage would be seen as entirely African, and Zulu seems actually not that likely at all anymore. I think they will be preserved for a different expansion. Benin could have a huge shot, especially if Morningcalm's propaganda worked.
Zimbabwe
Other possible options
North American civ
Since we already have seen the Inca's in this hypothetized expansion, and Brazil in the base game, they will probably focus rather on North America, because of a larger audience. Colombia, Argentina and other pre-Columbian south-American civs seems therefore unlikely (especially when we still don't have the Inca's). I don't think we will see Canada yet, since we already have Australia and America, and we don't have the Maya's or a Native American civ yet. The Maya's could fit well in this expansion with gold age mechanics or city-state / loyalty mechanics, and could be a civ focused for tall gameplay with frequent golden ages. They could have a female leader. A different option is focusing on Iroquios and their alliance mechanics i didn't know of, but I still think they would focus on a different Native North American civ, if they focused on that part, and i think the Maya's would perfectly fit in this expansion. The natives are not that well known, and i'm sure Firaxis could include some original choices like Navajo. I am however not completely sure if we will get two native civs in total (if the Inca's will be included), but it feels like they would waste an oppurtunity if they didn't include the Maya's now, and they actually deserves some love.
Maya's
The last option
I think the last one will be a much-asked option that isn't included yet, namely Italy. They could have a option to liberate city-states and could have bonuses for every free city / city-state in the world, like enhanced trade / alliance bonuses, or having an easier time to integrate city-states over time in their empire. It could also focus on trade, economy, culture and golden ages, specifically boosting trade, money income and culture generation. (civilization-unique bonuses for a golden age). I would prefer a more complicated representation of Italy, but i'm quite sure they will just do some kind of blob civ now.
Italy
Other options:
Babylon (focusing on old world & science)
Carthage (city-states focus)
Mali (but doesn't fit the expansion right now i think)
Iroquois (alliance specifics)
Ethiopia
Mughals
Swahili / Kilwa
Italy city-state civ
A different Native American civ
Less likely
Hungary (will be included later in civ, but doesn't fit in the expansion right now)
It seems that they were not thinking the new features that much when choosing the new Civs.
This is what Anton Strenger said in his article:
SpoilerCiv leaders :
People often ask how we select new leaders and civilizations to include in expansions – and we have nine new leaders and eight new civilizations which will be revealed over the coming weeks with Civilization: Rise and Fall. Well, it is a collaborative process that involves the whole team from art and design to production and even our legal department. We also ask ourselves some core questions as we select potential leaders:
“Is this region of the world represented?”
“Is this time in history represented?”
“Is this represented/revered in previous Civilization games or totally new?”
We strive to have a diverse and varied selection of leaders, and it is also very important to us to include female leaders. Women are often underrepresented in traditional historical accounts, and recent scholarship has revealed more and more the fascinating and powerful women that lived between the lines of history textbooks. We also look for leaders whose history makes them particularly well-suited for a bonus related to new expansion systems.
I dont know if many Civs really are connected to new features, but LEADERS might be. As an example from the base game we can think of France and Catherine De Medici. Civ is not espionage focused, but the leader is.
My predictions:
the Inca
Netherlands
Mongols
Ottomans
Korea
Ethiopia
African Civ that we havent had in Civ before (Ghana for example)
North-American Native Civ that we havent had in Civ before (Cherokee for example)
+ Isabella for Spain
Based on their comments it is clear that they want to add couple of Civs that have never been in Civ. This is the reason why Civs like Ghana and Cherokee are real possibility. Also Im predicting female leader for Ethiopia.
The architecture style with turqoise colored domes are typical for Iran and Central Asia. So I agree it has to be from that region. But Madrasahs are already in as a unique building for Arabia. The building does not seem to resemble any specific wonder, seems to generic. So I think it has to be a unique improvement for a civ like you suggest Timurids most likely (or another one from that region?). Another option could be a unique improvement for a city-state from that area, if another cs will be turned into a full civ.
Canada would be set up with Peacekeepers to work with the Emergency Situation feature. Whether that would be a trait for Canada, or whether that means they'd use Pearson as the leader, either one could work. I still think it might be unlikely, but I really don't understand why else they would throw the Chateau Frontenac as a wonder in the game if Canada is not there...
I will give this a try, based on what other people predicted, own intuition, and the intro teaser.
Mongolia - Great Khan Genghis Khan
Netherlands - Queen Wilhelmina
Korea - Queen Seondeok
Ottomans - Sultan Mehmed the Conqueror
Mali - Prince Sundjata Keita
Kilwa - Sultan Ali ibn al-Hassan Shirazi
Inca - Sapa Inca Huayna Capac
Canada - Prime Minister Lester B Pearson
I've never been that thrilled with the idea of Italy as a Civ, but the expansion features listed actually make me think they'd fit perfectly.
Their unique unit could even be unique governors to simulate the various leaders of the Italian City States. The Pope, the Medicis, the doges of Genoa and Venice, the Sforzas, the Estes... They could have strengthened Golden Ages (Renaissance) and even Dark Ages (Post-Rome, Bubonic Plague). It would certainly make for a very unique Civ.
I've never been that thrilled with the idea of Italy as a Civ, but the expansion features listed actually make me think they'd fit perfectly.
Their unique unit could even be unique governors to simulate the various leaders of the Italian City States. The Pope, the Medicis, the doges of Genoa and Venice, the Sforzas, the Estes... They could have strengthened Golden Ages (Renaissance) and even Dark Ages (Post-Rome, Bubonic Plague). It would certainly make for a very unique Civ.
I've come around to this possibility too. I never was a fan of a post-unification Italy in thr game, but I liked the implementation of Venice in CivV, and given the new mechanics in this expansion and how well the dual Greek leader civ worked out, I would welcome a multi-leader Italian city-state civ. I would expect a Venetian, like Dondalo, with Cosimo or Lorenzo De Medici for Florence.
The new features we saw today just begs for the inclusion of the Italian city-states, and I trust the designers to do an "Italian" civ well.
I would love to see Canada, but I feel like they would be better in the expansion that adds World Congress. Also, if Canada was focused on the French Canadian side of our history than that would help differentiate us from the US, England, and Australia.
It seems that they were not thinking the new features that much when choosing the new Civs.
This is what Anton Strenger said in his article:
SpoilerCiv leaders :
People often ask how we select new leaders and civilizations to include in expansions – and we have nine new leaders and eight new civilizations which will be revealed over the coming weeks with Civilization: Rise and Fall. Well, it is a collaborative process that involves the whole team from art and design to production and even our legal department. We also ask ourselves some core questions as we select potential leaders:
“Is this region of the world represented?”
“Is this time in history represented?”
“Is this represented/revered in previous Civilization games or totally new?”
We strive to have a diverse and varied selection of leaders, and it is also very important to us to include female leaders. Women are often underrepresented in traditional historical accounts, and recent scholarship has revealed more and more the fascinating and powerful women that lived between the lines of history textbooks. We also look for leaders whose history makes them particularly well-suited for a bonus related to new expansion systems.
I dont know if many Civs really are connected to new features, but LEADERS might be. As an example from the base game we can think of France and Catherine De Medici. Civ is not espionage focused, but the leader is.
My predictions:
the Inca
Netherlands
Mongols
Ottomans
Korea
Ethiopia
African Civ that we havent had in Civ before (Ghana for example)
North-American Native Civ that we havent had in Civ before (Cherokee for example)
+ Isabella for Spain
Based on their comments it is clear that they want to add couple of Civs that have never been in Civ. This is the reason why Civs like Ghana and Cherokee are real possibility. Also Im predicting female leader for Ethiopia.
while, I think this list is fantastic and probably true. Just on a hunch. Look at the previous DLC civs, a few that were previously in but lots of new ones. I really think it will be 4 civs that were previously included; Netherlands, Mongols, Korean and another. But, im also thinking we will get 4 civs we have never had before. It just seems to be a trend. Now, I could be totally wrong but this is just a hunch.
Looking at the list now; Poland, Vikings, Australia, Persia, Macedon, Khmer, Nubia and Indonesia. This is a diverse group guys. While some were previously included there were a few shockers in there and some that were new. This is why I think we will get some surprises here. Also, I think 2 of the known Listed new units will be represented by new civs; the Spec ops (korea??) and Pike and shot (switz, Netherlands?) So you have to consider the 4 known new units. Again, just my two cents and im probably wrong as usual., lol
The North American civ I previously thought was Maya's, could be Canada, reducing the chance for both a native American civ and the Maya's, and i'm actually not that sure about the Inca's either, since I thought Machu Pichu would be included together with their inclusion.
Korea (inclusion always expected for first expansion)
Netherlands (another inclusion always expected for first expansion)
Canada (because Château Frontenac is a wonder that seems to be included in this expansion)
Incas (because South America is urgently in need of more representation)
Zulus (a desert African civi was recently included, I think this narrows the possibilities of Mali a bit. Nubia is very close to Ethiopia. I think they will choose Zulus for a geographic variety)
A Native American (my bets go to Sioux)
A civ never seen before, I think the most likely ones are Hungary, Gaul (replacing the Celts), Ashanti, Kilwa, Italy...
Mongols - Genghis Khan - Causes/worsens dark ages in civs they attack
Korea - Queen Seondeok
Dutch - William I of Orange (considering they have Phillip II in the game, and William broke away from an over extended Spanish empire, it fits perfectly)
Byzantines - Theodora - A golden age mechanic maybe?
Carthage - Dido
Columbia - Simón Bolívar (also broke away from Spain, fits with Rise & Fall)
Cherokee - Nanye'hi (Nancy Ward) - A mechanic regarding alliances or ability to redirect loyalty pressure into tech/culture
Hausa/Nigeria - Queen Amina
Extra leader: Stalin for Russia - Iron Curtain mechanic as a defense against loyalty pressure
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