Black swan theory

[Mise]

I think I'd like to learn about white swans before learning about black ones. Any suggestions? Or just any generic book on the market over the past X years will do?

 

[Hygro]

I think I'd like to learn about white swans before learning about black ones. Any suggestions? Or just any generic book on the market over the past X years will do?

Er are you kidding?

 

[Whomp]

So I finished reading it almost a week ago. It's a very good book. Quite funny at times, as the author does not divorce his personality from his prose.

I don't have too much to say, except that I'm smarter for having read it. And it's under 300 pages.


Anyway, his "euro-bashing" is mostly in jest and aimed at the French (a language in which he is clearly fluent). He makes a very good point for why human intuition was good for predicting things pre-civilization, but is obsolete in the post-industrial era. I highly recommend reading it.

Thanks, Whomp!

Good stuff Hygro. I don't it's just Europeans or French that he does this to. Recently, he spoke in front of a group of traders at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and was booed. I don't think people who "think they know" like him so much. I'm going to be out of town over the next two weeks so I plan to finish it then.

 

[Mise]

Er are you kidding?

Err, no... Why would you think I was kidding?

 

[Hygro]

Good stuff Hygro. I don't it's just Europeans or French that he does this to. Recently, he spoke in front of a group of traders at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and was booed. I don't think people who "think they know" like him so much. I'm going to be out of town over the next two weeks so I plan to finish it then.

Would it bother you (I'm sure it would turn off potential CFC readers) if the book makes actually made me more comfortable with my faith in God?

Err, no... Why would you think I was kidding?

You mean like, read a stats textbook explaining the bell curve? Or reading a book that uses inductive reasoning as proof of a phenomenon? What could you possibly mean by white-swan in the context of this thread?

 

[Mise]

You mean like, read a stats textbook explaining the bell curve? Or reading a book that uses inductive reasoning as proof of a phenomenon? What could you possibly mean by white-swan in the context of this thread?

How and why the market has come to be where it is now from a standard interpretation / textbook perspective. I.e. what are the things that we have convinced ourselves are explicable in hindsight.

 

[Hygro]

Ah well in that case, if you find an entertaining book on the subject pass it along. I'd like to read that too.

 

[Brighteye]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/technology/7275127.stm

can't predict effects of science on our lives?

 

[Whomp]

Would it bother you (I'm sure it would turn off potential CFC readers) if the book makes actually made me more comfortable with my faith in God?

That's for others to worry about. There's no definitive proof anyone can offer than can guarantee the alternative.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/technology/7275127.stm

can't predict effects of science on our lives?

I'm sure that's what IBM said when their superior operating system OS/2 was wiped out by a little thing called "Windows".