BOTM 30 First spoiler - 1 AD

[jesusin]

jesusin, contender. Goal: fastest spaceship and/or gold medal


Plan: ignore this is Deity, take all of my continent, call it "the land of the million of cottages", then evaluate if I want to win the space race by sheer size or I prefer to milk the game and win a domination.


Warrior SE sees nothing, settler 1NE and then decide to go settle on the PH and not on the banana, because of the fast worker building.

Worker-Warrior-Warrior-Settler (double whipped)
Agri-BW-Wheel-Pottery

With these neighbours I'm not getting peace easily... so I worker steal HC 3500BC.


Second city built 2E of N gold... maybe a mistake, I didn't get to use the gold till millenia later because of barb flooding!

There is no food around the copper so I have to settle with it in the fast cross... which means I won't be rushing anyone.

Monte has something in his hands 2500BC. That's the time I decide my single warrior can beat the barb warrior at 90%, so I retire reinforcements towards the capital... mistake, lose that fight and my gold city!
Send all of my brave warriors there, ignore the 2 workers I can steal from Monte, retake the city... without pop, without the half built worker, without the Monument...still not working the gold!

HC kills the worker-stealer with a sword... no, he would not take peace all this time. I am lucky he has no OB with Monte. Barbs come in groups of 5. Had they been archers instead of warriors, I would have paid a steep price for settling with copper in the second ring.


Build 4th city by the E gold, I'm at +7gpt at 0%. Oracle is gone. Uh? I have researched 4 full techs so far!

Get AH, choose Masonry, I'm going for Pyramids... Barb warrior gets lucky and beats my shock warrior, who was protecting the worker that was mining the gold (I haven't still used that gold a single turn, remember?) so a 4% roll leaves me with a single worker for my 4 cities empire... wait, I have a 5th now by the stone.

2roads to the river aren't enough to get stone city connected, that delays Pyramids building 2 turns right there. 6th city W of the still not used gold. That breaks the flow of barbs and I can finally use the gold.

1000 BC Stats: 6 cities, 17 pop, 6 workers, 8units(3Axe), 3 strategic resources, 1 luxury resources, 2 health resources, 0 great persons, 0 world wonders, 0 national wonders, food/production/commerce=53-40-22, 12 sustainable beakers per turn, 7 culture per turn, 0 great person points per turn, 50 gold, 5gra,3monu,2Barr. 1 religions, 0/0 cottages used, 9 Techs: Pott, AH, BW, Wri, Mason. 0 civs killed. 4 hours played.

Hire my first scientist well past 1000BC. Pyramids are gone. This game is looking bad. Take a barb city in Alaska which will be the perfect GPFarm. Build the workers I'm missing, decide to take Monte by force... but I'm at -9gpt at 0% before having any army... I feel a bit backwards, maybe that's because I am researching hunting to get 1 more happy to work commerce tiles. I am hindu, like everybody around here.


Deciding to build an army was a good idea, because religion has finally opened HC-Monte borders and here comes HC stack, looking for the worker I enslaved 4000 years ago. Monte goes full handed.

Make an Academy, kill 1 stack, see a second coming... Monte dows while my stack (of Axes) was traversing his lands to take HC cities... HC pays all of fishing for peace, great, that's my 9th tech, yoohooo!

My stack (did I mention how fast you can build 40 Axes?) goes straight to Monte copper city and takes it. HC dows Monte. I feel lbs are near, so I have to push my advantage. Take another city, winning a war so late without cats is not cost effective.

I am rushing some 12 pop some turns. I am at -30gpt at 0%. Send a 20 unit stack towards their capital. I have invested all the savings of many millenia in MC, only to find that SB has no Alpha, HC has just got MC and I am at war with Monte... no trading, uh, uh.

1AD Stats: 9 cities, 41 pop, 9workers, 38units (26Axe), 3 strategic resources, 2 luxury resources, 5 health resources, 1 great persons, 0 world wonders, 0 national wonders, food/production/commerce=125-60-34, 5 sustainable beakers per turn at -10gpt, 35 culture per turn, 3 great person points per turn, 240 gold. 1 religions. 11/27 cottages used, 12 Techs: BW, MC, Wri, no Maths. 0 civs killed. 10 hours played.

 

[TheMeInTeam]

It would be nice if we were informed that the standard deity barb settings were played with, such that barb cities are defended by warriors only and easy pickings for a blocked AI.

I lost 2 good city sites this way. If I'd known, I could have taken them without much trouble, but I didn't know, so the AI got them.

This is no better, no worse than giving the barbs theology at game start or something and not telling us. I'll see what I can salvage as the surrounding land that is still available is nice and it should still be doable, possibly.

Edit:

Rage quit after montezuma went WHEOOHRN with him being pleased towards me and annoyed toward sitting bull. I don't like dealing with bull****, and even though it was easily still winnable with 8 BC cities, great library, and adequate defenses, that would slow me down enough. Ticky tack garbage strikes again.

Edit2: Upon reading the rest of this, I seem to be the only person targeted @ pleased while he had an annoyed target elsewhere. Delightful. I'd like to see a detailed summary from someone who got hit by monty in the BCs where they win, because it will improve me as a player. Diplo is a total luck box on this map, and anyone who says otherwise is ignorant of the game mechanics...which means that in order to RELIABLY compete, you have to be able to defend yourself and still keep up in tech. I can do that on immortal, now, easily. However, I still lose on deity when I get hit early DoW, and I'd like to know how people afford the maintenance on 10-15 defenders, sufficient expansion, and manage tech. Are bulbs the only way?

 

[Yamps]

^

I believe the key random factor is Monty's settling direction. In my game his second city was just south of my capital so I knew I was toasted, our borders were closer than with him and Capac. Luckily, Capac DoW-ed him first instead.

In your game Monty decided to DoW on Pleased and you were first in his DOW routine being the land target as I'm sure you're aware. Indeed, the luck factor is pretty significant on this map...

 

[jesusin]

In this game, if Monty choose you as the the 1st war target instead of HC, imo you are pretty unlucky. This happens only if Monty can be pleased at HC very early and that's not easy due to the close border tension. HC is Monty's land target and Pacal is not in the early stage. The only dangerous DOW is during their peace treaty time, if you can not make Monty to be pleased to you at that time, you must research archery right away and produce some archers for defense. I see no reason we can't defend against Monty, he is quite small and our capital is on hill.

I am a bit confused. I've never really understood the mechanics of AI dow. For a long time I thought that looking into the AI mind like that was a form of "cheating". I am still unsure about the fairness of doing so... but I am curious...

What does your being pleased with Monty have to do with being his target? I thought he was not on the list of those who will never dow if they are pleased... in fact Monty can dow even at Friendly, as far as I know.


Also, on a practical note, if Elizabeth is my close neighbour and she shares borders with nobody else and she's at Pleased towards me, then... is it true that she will never dow anyone? She can't dow me because of being Pleased and I am her target so she won't consider dowing someone else, right?

 

[TheMeInTeam]

^

I believe the key random factor is Monty's settling direction. In my game his second city was just south of my capital so I knew I was toasted, our borders were closer than with him and Capac. Luckily, Capac DoW-ed him first instead.

In your game Monty decided to DoW on Pleased and you were first in his DOW routine being the land target as I'm sure you're aware. Indeed, the luck factor is pretty significant on this map...

I got double'd down here:

1. If monty rolled a war check at cautious or below, he'd have hit sitting bull. This was significantly more likely.
2. HC was also an eligible target for him, with similar border pressure, although IIRC since our capitol is closer he'll favor us (maybe I also had more shared border? I don't think so though).
3. HC did not DoW montezuma, which would have helped me tremendously.

But all this says is that we need to be able to protect ourselves in BC and still win. Someone can do it, but it seems like a lot of high level games that get posted...just don't have that happen. This leads me to believe in a significant amount of selection bias as for what gets posted here...

 

[Duckweed]

I am a bit confused. I've never really understood the mechanics of AI dow. For a long time I thought that looking into the AI mind like that was a form of "cheating". I am still unsure about the fairness of doing so... but I am curious...

What does your being pleased with Monty have to do with being his target? I thought he was not on the list of those who will never dow if they are pleased... in fact Monty can dow even at Friendly, as far as I know.


Also, on a practical note, if Elizabeth is my close neighbour and she shares borders with nobody else and she's at Pleased towards me, then... is it true that she will never dow anyone? She can't dow me because of being Pleased and I am her target so she won't consider dowing someone else, right?

You will know and remember AI's behavior after playing a number of games, so do you consider that's "cheating"? If so, then the only fair setting is to play unrestricted leader. If you are interested, here's the link of DOW mechanics by DanF and I think it's one of the 2 most useful articles if you want to be competent in deity.

http://forums.civfanatics.com/showthread.php?p=7190899#post7190899

No AI will DOW you at friendly and only Cathy can be bribed to DOW at friendly. If Monty is pleased with you, then the chance of his DOW on you is at least 4 times less since his NoWarProbs is 80 at pleased compared to 20 at cautious. In fact there's more since his cautious neighbor tends be chosen when he decided to do so.

Yes, Elizabeth will never DOW you if you can keep her at pleased and without any vassal that is below pleased. However she can DOW any AI at cautious and below when the conditions fit. Land target is a very important factor when AI starts to pick the victim but not the necessary factor for DOW.

 

[Duckweed]

^

I believe the key random factor is Monty's settling direction. In my game his second city was just south of my capital so I knew I was toasted, our borders were closer than with him and Capac. Luckily, Capac DoW-ed him first instead.

You spoke the truth, CIV is a game full of lucky factor, it will definitely affect final result more or less. However most of the deity games are winnable even if you get an early DOW.

But no, Monty's 2nd city location is not the key factor. Only if his later cities have >7 tiles bordering you can make serious difference. IMO, the key random factor is when Monty decides to go to war. Human's chance of being chosen as 1st target in early stage is quite low.

It would be nice if we were informed that the standard deity barb settings were played with, such that barb cities are defended by warriors only and easy pickings for a blocked AI.

This can be easily found if you pay attention to what barbarian units spawned and start to enter you culture border before and around 2500BC.

I
Edit:

Rage quit after montezuma went WHEOOHRN with him being pleased towards me and annoyed toward sitting bull. I don't like dealing with bull****, and even though it was easily still winnable with 8 BC cities, great library, and adequate defenses, that would slow me down enough. Ticky tack garbage strikes again.

Have you considered that the much bigger SB's power could be high enough to stop the war attempt of much smaller Monty?

Edit2: Upon reading the rest of this, I seem to be the only person targeted @ pleased while he had an annoyed target elsewhere. Delightful. I'd like to see a detailed summary from someone who got hit by monty in the BCs where they win, because it will improve me as a player. Diplo is a total luck box on this map, and anyone who says otherwise is ignorant of the game mechanics...which means that in order to RELIABLY compete, you have to be able to defend yourself and still keep up in tech. I can do that on immortal, now, easily. However, I still lose on deity when I get hit early DoW, and I'd like to know how people afford the maintenance on 10-15 defenders, sufficient expansion, and manage tech. Are bulbs the only way?

It has been proved many times that early deity DOW is not deadly and the game can still be won. HC DOWed me in 300AD with a SOD of ~20 units in this game. Just name a few representative games with early DOW. The situations are much worse than yours.

http://forums.civfanatics.com/showthread.php?t=323521 -- 1440BC dagger from Monty
http://forums.civfanatics.com/showthread.php?t=312128 -- 700BC dagger from Shaka
http://forums.civfanatics.com/showthread.php?t=343185 -- 475BC total war from Monty&Ragnar

 

[TheMeInTeam]

Have you considered that the much bigger SB's power could be high enough to stop the war attempt of much smaller Monty?

I had like .2 of SB power and .3 of monty. Monty is the single most suicidal AI and will attack civs that are MARKEDLY stronger than him. In some extreme cases, montezuma will declare on an empire that is just under 200% of his power. Seriously.

I'll check those games out. What I'd really like, is someone other than me putting up a video series. No matter how many screens go up, one never sees every single little micro detail and the thinking behind it. Nevertheless, I'll review those games to make sure they're not ones I've already seen, and work from there.

Is 20 all they bring on deity? Maybe deity DoW aren't so scary after all. Definitely, though, the same player running this map will be much slower if he gets hit by wars than if he does not.

 

[Yamps]

You spoke the truth, CIV is a game full of lucky factor, it will definitely affect final result more or less. However most of the deity games are winnable even if you get an early DOW.

But no, Monty's 2nd city location is not the key factor. Only if his later cities have >7 tiles bordering you can make serious difference. IMO, the key random factor is when Monty decides to go to war. Human's chance of being chosen as 1st target in early stage is quite low.

At that time I assumed the >7 tile rule would be met pretty fast, nothing stopping him to plant the next city toward me as well. I went for Archery immediately seeing that, the map wasn't known yet to know his other borders.

Thanks for the game links!

 

[Htadus]

I thought I had about 4 hours to play this game but when I saw Monty I knew I am in for it...But no big deal.... barbs took care of that problem.....sort of.

Settled on the hill and built a worker, teched aggri, BW and hunting. Built 2 warriors and a settler next and claimed the gold to the the north. Cap built a spear and sent him toward the gold city. All of a sudden there were 2 each barb warriors were heading toward each city and cap had another spear being built which will be done one turn after the barb will attack. The first spear attack one of the warriors near gold and dies at nearly 80% chance. IBT loose the gold city. 2 turns to left on the spear so I think pop rush. Oh oh...how did I forget to switch to slavary? But what chance is there for 2 barb warriors to take the capital right on a hill? Game over and I shut off computer and went to bed.

Is there a different odds calc at higher levels? Also I really need to play some Deity games.

 

[Lexad]

Sorry, Duckweed, your pooints are somewhat misleading. First, you say, we're inlucky (=improbable) to be DOWed by Monty instead of HC:

In this game, if Monty choose you as the the 1st war target instead of HC, imo you are pretty unlucky. This happens only if Monty can be pleased at HC very early and that's not easy due to the close border tension. HC is Monty's land target and Pacal is not in the early stage.

Still, the only hc-monty first wars in my games/tests and as far as I understand most games were instigated by HC, you're the exception. Monty most often declared on player or ocasionally on SB.
The key is close borders - your argument. However, if you do not settle the blocking cities (to avoid close borders, as you said in final spoiler), Monty settles them himself very fast. And him settling either on top of horses or on grass hill is instant -2 diplo = Annoyed (when Mutal hits 40% culture).
Still, I ran a test not settlin the blockers, and Monty settled further on fish-wheat site getting extra diplo "-".
Resume: Monty will have close borders tension with you anyway, and fast. I haven't seen a report except yours with Monty attacking HC first. So actually human player is the most likely land target. It wasn't so in the games posted here with either Monty picking SB (not land target, low probability according to you) or being picked at by HC who has only one land target. In any case, your initial claim (Monty DOWs unluckies) seems doubtful.

Next point of doubt - Archery.

Yes, the key is Archery, in over 50% of the deity games I have played, I research Archery and that's the reason I feel most comfortable when I play with Mansa and protective leaders.

You recommend to research Archery first only during /monty-HC "peace treaty time". If Monty DOW probability is low, why waste precious cash on otherwise useless tech? But even if you do research Archery and pop-rush archers, your countryside will be ruined, expansion halted, some of side-cities might be taken, and some of the neighbours also might want a bit. Don't see much interest in this game, thus no "survival" for me.

In this game, you should have at least 3 cities and 2 workers that time. Whip 1 from every city and chop 2, you'll have 5 archers in your capital, there's no way that Monty has any chance.

1600 bc, I have 3 cities - 4 pop capital, 3 pop in gold-cows city, 1 pop in wheat-fish blocker - might have settled grains. 3rd city isn't connected by road and/or is low-pop, this leaves 2 cities. Pop-rushing from zero takes 2 pop - so you can rush only 2 archers 1st and then rush again only missing another turn, and only in 1 city. Archer travels 2 turns from the 2nd city, so only 1st will arrive on time. To chop wood, your workers should spend 4 turns - doesn't help. So when Monty stack jumps over the road from the fog of war towards your capital to reach it in 3 turns, you can get only 3 freshman archers there, which is not enough.
If you pre-build archers and pre-chop wood, then yes, you can defend your capital. But here we return to spending cash on Archery and believing yourself to be the most likely target.

IMO, the honest thing to say here would be: you'll get close borders with Monty soon, but HC will get even sooner. So the guys might fight bewtween themselves, or Monty might go for you with your low power - this depends on settling pattern, religion spread (the war I had between these was religion-incited, otherwise they were cautious) and first conflict date (=random). Research Archery if you want to be on the safe side, but if you're declared early, you're likely screwed anyway.

Don't get me wrong, I respect your skill and believe you would've coped with Monty's declaration anyway - but please, state your point closer to the reality other people witnessed in this game and you didn't have a chance to.

 

[shyuhe]

Not sure if this helps your analysis Lexad, but HC declared on Monty in my game and crippled him (even though they shared religion). I never saw a Monty dow in my game, and I count myself amongst the luckier players on this map.

 

[Lexad]

Yes, thesame in my 3rd test. But Monty is the only land target for HC, so no wonder here.

 

[Duckweed]

Sorry, Duckweed, your pooints are somewhat misleading. First, you say, we're inlucky (=improbable) to be DOWed by Monty instead of HC:Still, the only hc-monty first wars in my games/tests and as far as I understand most games were instigated by HC, you're the exception. Monty most often declared on player or ocasionally on SB.
The key is close borders - your argument. However, if you do not settle the blocking cities (to avoid close borders, as you said in final spoiler), Monty settles them himself very fast. And him settling either on top of horses or on grass hill is instant -2 diplo = Annoyed (when Mutal hits 40% culture).
Still, I ran a test not settlin the blockers, and Monty settled further on fish-wheat site getting extra diplo "-".
Resume: Monty will have close borders tension with you anyway, and fast. I haven't seen a report except yours with Monty attacking HC first. So actually human player is the most likely land target. It wasn't so in the games posted here with either Monty picking SB (not land target, low probability according to you) or being picked at by HC who has only one land target. In any case, your initial claim (Monty DOWs unluckies) seems doubtful.

First, I assumed that you also settled on the PH site since this is the most logical site for me and most players. I agree that Monty will settle toward your direction and that's the 1st random factor. Do you agree it's 50% chance?
Case 1. Monty's 2nd city goes west and then he and HC will become each other's land target and you're almost free from early DOW. This is the situation in my game. Do you agree?
Case 2. Monty's 2nd city goes north and settled the 3rd or 4th city on the sugar site. Then you are in serious danger of being the target, but not for sure. Since only when the sugar city pops the culture border and this takes time, then you also become his land target and has higher chance being his DOW target. In this case, there's a good chance that HC will DOW Monty as in some players' game. Therefore, even in case 2, the chance of being DOW by Monty is not 100%, do you agree?
Conclusion: The odd that you won't be the DOW target of Monty is 50% in case1 plus some odd in case2, which is greater than 50% for sure.

Next point of doubt - Archery. You recommend to research Archery first only during /monty-HC "peace treaty time". If Monty DOW probability is low, why waste precious cash on otherwise useless tech? But even if you do research Archery and pop-rush archers, your countryside will be ruined, expansion halted, some of side-cities might be taken, and some of the neighbours also might want a bit. Don't see much interest in this game, thus no "survival" for me.

I recommended this in my reply to Deckhand since that was what happened in my game. HC went WHEOOHRN right after his peace treaty with Monty even I was not his land target and he was pleased with me. (Do I wear a name tag "DOW me, otherwise I will DOW you eventually". I have had pretty good luck of being DOW target since BOTM27). I realized that I was his target, so I scout his SOD and begged for an extra 10 turns of forced peace and started build archers from everwhere. I would not recommend research archery in any case. But if you have a good chance of being target, then researching archery is a must, not only recommended. The early DOW from deity AI is the #1 reason of being defeated in this level, so I said that predicting the DOW and preparing for it is the basic skill if you want to be competent in deity. Better crippled than die instantly. In post#27, I provided some links of games with early deity DOW and still won, all of them had a harder situation than this map.

1600 bc, I have 3 cities - 4 pop capital, 3 pop in gold-cows city, 1 pop in wheat-fish blocker - might have settled grains. 3rd city isn't connected by road and/or is low-pop, this leaves 2 cities. Pop-rushing from zero takes 2 pop - so you can rush only 2 archers 1st and then rush again only missing another turn, and only in 1 city. Archer travels 2 turns from the 2nd city, so only 1st will arrive on time. To chop wood, your workers should spend 4 turns - doesn't help. So when Monty stack jumps over the road from the fog of war towards your capital to reach it in 3 turns, you can get only 3 freshman archers there, which is not enough.
If you pre-build archers and pre-chop wood, then yes, you can defend your capital. But here we return to spending cash on Archery and believing yourself to be the most likely target.

IMO, the honest thing to say here would be: you'll get close borders with Monty soon, but HC will get even sooner. So the guys might fight bewtween themselves, or Monty might go for you with your low power - this depends on settling pattern, religion spread (the war I had between these was religion-incited, otherwise they were cautious) and first conflict date (=random). Research Archery if you want to be on the safe side, but if you're declared early, you're likely screwed anyway.

Don't get me wrong, I respect your skill and believe you would've coped with Monty's declaration anyway - but please, state your point closer to the reality other people witnessed in this game and you didn't have a chance to.

If I was in your situation or case2, I would produce at least 2 archers as soon as possible for a possible dagger DOW. That's what Yamp did in his game. Actually, the dagger is predictable if you see that Monty is amassing units in the sugar city, then you need to produce more archers for defense.

 

[Ronnie1]

Still, the only hc-monty first wars in my games/tests and as far as I understand most games were instigated by HC, you're the exception. Monty most often declared on player or ocasionally on SB.

I settled on the bananas east of the starting spot, and Monty settled his second city north by the copper so when his borders popped we were touching. He Dow'd not long after that with 8-10 axes backed up by archers and warriors if I remember right. My 8 Holkans were no match.

IMO, the honest thing to say here would be: you'll get close borders with Monty soon, but HC will get even sooner. So the guys might fight bewtween themselves, or Monty might go for you with your low power - this depends on settling pattern, religion spread (the war I had between these was religion-incited, otherwise they were cautious) and first conflict date (=random). Research Archery if you want to be on the safe side, but if you're declared early, you're likely screwed anyway.

I think those that settled north and put distance between themselves and Monty were the only one's with a chance.

 

[Conquistador 63]

I'm not really motivated to write a proper spoiler, but just to add another example to the discussion above, in my game, this was how the diplomacy evolved until 1AD. I settled the PH, and Monty, HC and Pacal were Hindu - SB was running Judaism.

Spoiler :

Turn 56/500 (1760 BC) [06-Jun-2010 15:31:04]
Wayna Qhapaq (Inca) declares war on Motecuhzoma Xocoyotzin (Aztec)
Turn 70/500 (1200 BC) [06-Jun-2010 16:22:29]
Motecuhzoma Xocoyotzin (Aztec) and Wayna Qhapaq (Inca) have signed a peace treaty
Turn 96/500 (475 BC) [06-Jun-2010 22:12:35]
Attitude Change: Motecuhzoma Xocoyotzin (Aztec) towards K'inich Janaab' Pakal (Maya), from 'Cautious' to 'Pleased'
Attitude Change: Wayna Qhapaq (Inca) towards K'inich Janaab' Pakal (Maya), from 'Cautious' to 'Pleased'
Turn 105/500 (250 BC) [10-Jun-2010 21:48:59]
Diplomacy (Embargo Request): Motecuhzoma Xocoyotzin (Aztec) asks K'inich Janaab' Pakal (Maya) to stop trading with Thathánka Íyotake (Native America); K'inich Janaab' Pakal AGREES.
Turn 108/500 (175 BC) [10-Jun-2010 22:00:55]
Other Player Actions:
Motecuhzoma Xocoyotzin (Aztec) declares war on K'inich Janaab' Pakal (Maya)
Turn 112/500 (75 BC) [10-Jun-2010 22:12:24]
Wayna Qhapaq (Inca) declares war on Motecuhzoma Xocoyotzin (Aztec)

 

[Yamps]

^ you do know that he wouldn't consider a war for a trade embargo refusal? Bad luck there in a few turns...

 

[Conquistador 63]

^IIRC Monty went WHEOOHRN around t90, but since he got pleased t96 I asked for a small gift (he agreed) shortly after that, which bought me 10 turns of peace.

Somehow I thought that accepting the trade embargo demand would keep him off my back for another while, but it was an obvious mistake.

I'll try to post what happened next in the final spoiler. What I can say here is that I had 6 cities and was thinking of going for culture, but even that would be an impossible task, as Monty had infected all my cities with hinduism (only 1 religion).

 

[Lexad]

Case 1. Monty's 2nd city goes west and then he and HC will become each other's land target and you're almost free from early DOW. This is the situation in my game. Do you agree?
Case 2. Monty's 2nd city goes north and settled the 3rd or 4th city on the sugar site.

Sure, if the case is #1, the guys are in for it. I had case #2. This means heaps in terms of DOW, namely - becoming a land target.

Since only when the sugar city pops the culture border and this takes time, then you also become his land target and has higher chance being his DOW target.

Don't think so. You get -2 close borders diplo instantly just by controlling his BFC tiles, even if he can't yet cover them with culture, and you definitely get more than 7 commo border tiles just between capital and his 2nd city if he settles between copper and banana, which was my case.

In this case, there's a good chance that HC will DOW Monty as in some players' game. Therefore, even in case 2, the chance of being DOW by Monty is not 100%, do you agree?

Completely, this was the case in my 2nd test.

Conclusion: The odd that you won't be the DOW target of Monty is 50% in case1 plus some odd in case2, which is greater than 50% for sure.

I never faced Monthy settling not northwards, so focused on case 2 in my analysis, where it feels somewhat below 50%.

But if you have a good chance of being target, then researching archery is a must, not only recommended.

Great, finally we've reached the common ground - the case of close borders makes you much more likely target, therefore you do need archery. Thanks for your replies!