CFC Pick'em Funtimes 2017-2018

[caketastydelish]

I know the Colts are not a good team this year, but it's not just that the Rams beat them but how they won. It's also another home game. I think the Chargers are better than you think and Cutler is garbage. Of course Dolphins have yet to play a game, so nobody really knows. The Steelers reached the AFC championship last year. I'm not sure how good they have to be to earn your idea of "great". Still, Minnesota seems to be solid so anything could happen. Denver has a great defense as always but after how the Cowboys just beat the Giants by so much (Giants themselves are no joke) betting against them on a home game is difficult for me.

 

[sophie]

NE cov
PIT dnc
KC cov
TB cov
BAL cov
CAR cov
JAX win
ARI cov
OAK cov
LAC cov
SEA cov
DAL cov
WAS win
GB win
DET win

 

[Timsup2nothin]

The Chargers are not actually good while Cutler actually improves the dolphins that won a WC spot last year. Not much more to be said.

There are teams who could look at Cutler as an improvement at quarterback...they play on Fridays. The Dolphins aren't one of them. Jay Cutler is the walking textbook example that there is more to playing quarterback than throwing a football.

 

[KMRblue1027]

If you think Culter is a bad QB you're misinformed. That's the simple truth. He's been constantly between top 16 and top 12 in nearly every rate stat for over 5 years. You can do a hell of a lot worse then Jay Cutler. Ask any team like Houston or San Fran who haven't had a QB in a decade.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

If you think Culter is a bad QB you're misinformed. That's the simple truth. He's been constantly between top 16 and top 12 in nearly every rate stat for over 5 years. You can do a hell of a lot worse then Jay Cutler. Ask any team like Houston or San Fran who haven't had a QB in a decade.

Or ask the teams that have had Cutler...who always underperformed. "We have a big strong QB who can make all the throws, why aren't we winning? Change the receivers...nope. Change the defense....nope. Change the line...nope. Change the coaches...nope. Change the backs...nope. Change receivers again...nope..." After several years in this process of elimination Denver and Chicago both arrived at Cutler is a loser. There may not be an easily definable "he doesn't have the arm" or something to explain that, but it is the demonstrated truth.

 

[KMRblue1027]

Blaming a QB who constantly performs for his teams record is a really sad and common mistake. People do the same thing with the Saints too. Obviously Drew Brees is much better, but a QB doesn't have control of a teams roster that's on the GM. You can have the best QB in the game and still go sub .500 with a bad roster. Romo had that happen, Rivers, Cutler, Brees all QBs who've at various points in their careers been top 10 at worst and couldn't do anything when surrounded with garbage. Saying someone is a loser isn't a statistical analysis of how a player preformed. It's like blaming an Ace pitcher for not scoring runs. It's not really worth pursuing this any further.

 

[Light Cleric]

After Cutler was gone, the Broncos had to get a new coach(John Fox), a new GM, land Peyton Manning after being stuck with Kyle Orton and Tim Tebow, and then get fire John Fox after his teams literally died in the playoffs repeatedly before actually winning the Super Bowl again.

Meanwhile, the Bears haven't exactly been on a roll since he left.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

Please note that "underperformed" and "did not win" are not interchangeable. Many of the seasons that Cutler was in Denver he had a solid roster around him, and they underperformed. The Bears fired Lovie Smith when the team was winning, because they underperformed. Lovie Smith has a record of his teams overachieving, Cutler has made a career out of leading teams to curiously disappointing finishes. I said then and I say now that the Bears made the wrong call.

Brees, to my knowledge, has never led a team that underperformed. Good roster or bad the Saints have always done better than could reasonably be expected. Romo, on the other hand and like Cutler, has lead very good rosters to disappointment and mediocre rosters to the basement. Like Cutler, despite his apparent ability to throw the ball he was never a good quarterback.

 

[Light Cleric]

..."Many" of the 2 and 1/3rd seasons he was there before Josh McDaniels ran him out of town?

Also, as much as I love Brees as a Saints fan, the 2014 Saints were a goddamn train wreck that underperformed ridiculously badly. 11-5 the year before, gave the Seahawks all they could handle in the playoffs in Seattle, top 10 offense and defense the year before, added Jairus Byrd and Brandin Cooks. Archie Manning thought it might be the best Saints team in history, better than the one that won the Super Bowl.

...then we crapped the bed. Our defense was the biggest culprit, but Brees' penchant for backbreaking interceptions has gotten harder to ignore with each passing 7-9 season - last year, he had atrocious ones in the the games at Carolina and Tampa last year, and despite the final score our defense is what saved the San Diego game.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

..."Many" of the 2 and 1/3rd seasons he was there before Josh McDaniels ran him out of town?

Yeah, many...as in all of them. Starting with being promoted to starting for a 7-4 team that was solidly in the thick of a run for the playoffs (clearly not a bad roster), securing a very strong passer rating that seemed to justify the promotion...but going 2-3 to finish 9-7 and miss the playoffs. The next year they tuned up their roster a bit more and started with their quarterback question settled. He had a great season, statistically, as Denver and a solid roster somehow still managed to lose more than they won. The next year was another great season for Cutler statistically, and again they had the roster to be a strong contender...and became the only team in history to have a three game lead with three games to play and not win their division. That collapse got Mike Shanahan fired, because it was too early to tell that Cutler was the one who specialized in finding a way to lose.

As to the 2014 Saints...isn't that the season that they managed to get a defensive back carted off the field in just about every game...until about halfway through the season "next man up" in New Orleans meant "grab a guy off the street and put him in a uniform"? You are saying that team underperformed? What did you expect was gonna happen when 3/4 of the starting defensive backfield were guys that had started the season on the practice squad?

 

[Light Cleric]

Yes, it's weird what happens when your defense goes from allowing 1 touchdown in 7 weeks to 25 touchdowns over 9. Surely, this was Cutler's aura of losing and not an over-performing defense coming down to earth.

Re: the Saints: If your DBs are playing like garbage before they get injured, does it matter if they go down? Byrd was graded as one the worst safeties (iirc, THE worst) in the NFL when he was healthy that year. Keenan Lewis was bad when healthy(ironically one of his best games was against the Niners when he knee was blown up like a bowling ball). SJB was so bad he never even got on the field before getting cut despite being a 2nd round pick. The ones that didn't weren't much better. Corey White was godawful and Patrick Robinson(who was a starter for a long time and basically a starter because of so much nickel) was equally bad.

The season was doomed when we fell on our faces in Cleveland to Brian f'ing Hoyer, although frankly it was already bad when we lost to the Falcons because our offense had to settle for field goals (because Sean Payton doesn't trust our o-line to convert a 4th and 1 inch and frankly I don't blame him, it always blows up on us).

If you really want to talk about pulling guys off the street, in 2009 it got to the point where we dragged in Mike McKenzie(who even we had gotten rid of) and the remains of Chris McAllister to play corner. We still won the damn Super Bowl. Our DBs has always been mediocre to horrible. Mickey Loomis could not draft one to save his life; the best ones he ever drafted wereTracy Porter, who went from "Super Bowl hero" to "stuck to the bottom of Marshawn Lynch's shoe" in one season, and Malcolm Jenkins, who he let walk away to replace him with...Jairus Byrd. Oops.

 

[Light Cleric]

Anyway onto my picks because I almost forgot:

Thursday, 9/14
Houston @ Cincinnati, Cincinnati by 6.5 Picked Cincy to cover

Sunday, 9/17
New England @ New Orleans, New England by 6.5 New England covers
Minnesota @ Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh by 6 Pittsburgh covers
Philadelphia @ Kansas City, Kansas City by 5 Kansas City covers
Chicago @ Tampa Bay, Tampa Bay by 7 Tampa covers
Cleveland @ Baltimore, Baltimore by 7.5 Baltimore covers
Buffalo @ Carolina, Carolina by 7 Carolina covers
Tennessee @ Jacksonville, Tennessee by 2.5 Tennessee covers
Arizona @ Indianapolis, Arizona by 7.5 Arizona covers
N.Y. Jets @ Oakland, Oakland by 14 Oakland covers
Miami @ L.A. Chargers, Chargers by 4.5 Chargers cover
San Francisco @ Seattle, Seattle by 13.5 Seattle covers
Dallas @ Denver, Dallas by 2 Dallas covers
Washington @ L.A. Rams, Rams by 2.5 Rams cover
Green Bay @ Atlanta, Atlanta by 2.5 Packers win

Monday, 9/18
Detroit @ N.Y. Giants, Giants by 3.5 Lions win UNLESS ODELL PLAYS then Giants cover(is this too conditional Owen?)

Not a fan of huge spreads but the Niners and Jets really might be that bad on the road.

 

[caketastydelish]

Along a similar line, considering the injury of Sam Bradford (which I didn't know about) I change mine to Pittsburgh covers.

 

[KMRblue1027]

Bradford is officially out so I'm changing to Pittsburgh doesn't cover. I still think that d will keep it close but don't bet in a team with no QB to pull out a road win

 

[Timsup2nothin]

Well, I had a good first week.

 

[sophie]

Week 2 Results

Week 2 Rankings

Standings after Week 2

 

[sophie]

Week 3 Spreads

Thursday, 9/21
L.A. Rams @ San Francisco, Rams by 2

Sunday, 9/24
Baltimore @ Jacksonville, Baltimore by 3.5
Houston @ New England, New England by 13
Miami @ N.Y. Jets, Miami by 6
Tampa Bay @ Minnesota, Tampa Bay by 2.5
N.Y. Giants @ Philadelphia, Philadelphia by 6
Denver @ Buffalo, Denver by 3
New Orleans @ Carolina, Carolina by 6
Pittsburgh @ Chicago, Pittsburgh by 7
Cleveland @ Indianapolis, Cleveland by 1
Atlanta @ Detroit, Atlanta by 3
Seattle @ Tennessee, Tennessee by 3
Kansas City @ L.A. Chargers, Kansas City by 3
Cincinnati @ Green Bay, Green Bay by 8.5
Oakland @ Washington, Oakland by 3

Monday, 9/25
Dallas @ Arizona, Dallas by 3

 

[Sommerswerd]

Week 3 Spreads

Thursday, 9/21
L.A. Rams @ San Francisco, Rams by 2 - Dog wins outright

Sunday, 9/24
Baltimore @ Jacksonville, Baltimore by 3.5 - Favourite covers
Houston @ New England, New England by 13 - Favourite covers
Miami @ N.Y. Jets, Miami by 6 - Favourite covers
Tampa Bay @ Minnesota, Spread Not Available, - Guessing that its Minnesota favored- Dog wins outright
N.Y. Giants @ Philadelphia, Philadelphia by 6 - Favourite covers
Denver @ Buffalo, Denver by 3- Favourite covers
New Orleans @ Carolina, Carolina by 6- Favourite covers
Pittsburgh @ Chicago, Pittsburgh by 7- Favourite covers
Cleveland @ Indianapolis, Cleveland by 1- Dog wins outright
Atlanta @ Detroit, Atlanta by 3- Favourite covers
Seattle @ Tennessee, Tennessee by 3- Favourite covers
Kansas City @ L.A. Chargers, Kansas City by 3- Favourite covers
Cincinnati @ Green Bay, Green Bay by 8.5- Favourite covers
Oakland @ Washington, Oakland by 3- Favourite covers

Monday, 9/25
Dallas @ Arizona, Dallas by 3- Favourite covers

 

[Timsup2nothin]

Wow...all my "only half wrong" picks got me to the top of the leaderboard! Whodathunkit?


Thursday, 9/21
L.A. Rams @ San Francisco, Rams by 2 Rams cover

Sunday, 9/24
Baltimore @ Jacksonville, Baltimore by 3.5 Ravens cover
Houston @ New England, New England by 13 Scum cover
Miami @ N.Y. Jets, Miami by 6 Fish cover
Tampa Bay @ Minnesota, Spread Not Available, To Be Updated Later
N.Y. Giants @ Philadelphia, Philadelphia by 6 Birds cover, son's gf says yes (they will be at the game for the very tacky 'proposal on the jumbotron' experience)
Denver @ Buffalo, Denver by 3 Broncoids cover
New Orleans @ Carolina, Carolina by 6 Saints win
Pittsburgh @ Chicago, Pittsburgh by 7 Steelers DNC
Cleveland @ Indianapolis, Cleveland by 1 Colts win
Atlanta @ Detroit, Atlanta by 3 Lions win
Seattle @ Tennessee, Tennessee by 3 Titans cover
Kansas City @ L.A. Chargers, Kansas City by 3 Chargers win
Cincinnati @ Green Bay, Green Bay by 8.5 Packers DNC
Oakland @ Washington, Oakland by 3 Raiders cover

Monday, 9/25
Dallas @ Arizona, Dallas by 3 'pukes cover

Seriously? Cleveland is a road favorite? I know the Colts are bad, but c'mon, they're still the Cleveland Browns. Who bets on the Cleveland Browns?

 

[caketastydelish]

Thursday, 9/21
L.A. Rams @ San Francisco, Rams cover

Sunday, 9/24
Baltimore @ Jacksonville, Ravens cover
Houston @ New England, Patriots cover
Miami @ N.Y. Jets, Dolphins cover
Tampa Bay @ Minnesota, Spread Not Available, To Be Updated Later
N.Y. Giants @ Philadelphia, Eagles cover
Denver @ Buffalo, Broncos cover
New Orleans @ Carolina, Panthers cover
Pittsburgh @ Chicago, Steelers cover
Cleveland @ Indianapolis, Browns cover
Atlanta @ Detroit, Lions win
Seattle @ Tennessee, Seahawks Cover
Kansas City @ L.A. Chargers, Chiefs cover
Cincinnati @ Green Bay, Packers cover
Oakland @ Washington, Raiders cover

Monday, 9/25
Dallas @ Arizona, Cardinals win

Seriously? Cleveland is a road favorite? I know the Colts are bad, but c'mon, they're still the Cleveland Browns. Who bets on the Cleveland Browns?

Luck is not expected to show up but Myles Garrett is. Actually, just as Light Cleric said last week for "If Odell plays..." the same applies for me and Myles Garrett. If that is allowed. If Myles Garrett is there Cleveland covers, otherwise Indy wins.