China vs Russia

[RedRalph]

We all new I was going to do it.

OK, instead of giving vague, unrealistic scenarios, I'll try and do this with some hint of realism. Lets assume neither country makes any enormous advances militarily in the time frame described, but bear in mind that by 2015, Russia should have completed an extensive military modernisation programme, and China will likely have an aircraft carrier. Please no discussion on the realism of the build-up, its just a device to cause the war

2015: Kazakhstan joins the newly-created Union State of Russia and Belarus. China leaves the SCO in protest. Tensions mount after both sides vie for influence in central Asia, leading to huge diplomatic spats. Russia expels all Chinese citizens from Siberia.

By January 2016, it becomes clear that war will begin in April. The US, India and the EU all declare they will not participate.

So, how does it proceed? If you think it will end in a nukefest, describe how... If you think the yanks will sell Russia some serious weaponry, say so. etc.

One thing to bear in mind: Very, very few of the Siberian oilfields are anywhere near the common border.

 

[Aegis]

If you think the yanks will sell Russia some serious weaponry, say so. etc

At first, I was inclined to say that the US would not help the Russians because the Chinese heavily invested in the US so the US would want to help the Chinese. But then I thought, what would happen to those debts owed if China lost?

 

[Patroklos]

Hmmm...

The Chinese aircraft carrier is useless here. The Chinese fleet is more than capable of bottling up the Russian Pacific fleet. Naval warfare will be of little significance.

It will primarily be an armor and infanty contest in Siberia, with the Chinese eventually gaining enough ground to cut of the Far East and while not occupu it, render it irrelevant. I envision a stailmate after that, with Russia eventually having to concede.

Interestingly enough the Russian and Chinese airforces are not that imbalanced, so this would be a ground war without some repeat of 1991.

 

[bhsup]

If it stays conventional, my money is on the PRC. Just sheer numbers here RRW. While Russia has more reserves, China has more than twice the number of members in its active standing army.

 

[RedRalph]

Hmmm...

The Chinese aircraft carrier is useless here. The Chinese fleet is more than capable of bottling up the Russian Pacific fleet. Naval warfare will be of little significance.

It will primarily be an armor and infanty contest in Siberia, with the Chinese eventually gaining enough ground to cut of the Far East and while not occupu it, render it irrelevant. I envision a stailmate after that, with Russia eventually having to concede.

Interestingly enough the Russian and Chinese airforces are not that imbalanced, so this would be a ground war without some repeat of 1991.

Well, bear in mind, western Russia is completely unthreatened, so the Baltic and Black Sea fleets have enough time to head on over... now I know the last time the Russians tried that it didn't work out too well, but would it make any difference this time?

 

[RedRalph]

If it stays conventional, my money is on the PRC. Just sheer numbers here RRW. While Russia has more reserves, China has more than twice the number of members in its active standing army.

I'm inclined to agree, though I think it would be close enough... but do you think it would stay conventional? Russia has an overwhelming advantage in WMDs, I think they might risk using some tactical nukes, calculating that the Chinese wouldnt risk escalating to a full exchange

 

[Lillefix]

The Russians can use their normal tactics to abandon and burn everything in danger, that is everything east of the Ural mountains. And then hopefully the Chinese army will fail completely being unprotected in the Siberian winter. Under 30 degrees celsius, almost NOTHING works.

 

[CavLancer]

Right now China's economic/manpower advantages overcome Russia's ever narrowing tech advantage. Ten years from now China overruns Russia, and I think the Russians must know it otherwise Georgia is absorbed. Instead the Russians may have swapped their local advantages on the Black Sea for a future promise of help in Siberia vs China. Still, if the Russians lose Siberia that leaves them as a 'help wanted' periphery power to NATO which has certain advantages to the West in the short term, Russia having positioned themselves as the perennial enemy. I really thing Russia better play nice on Iran which they are actually starting to do...

Still, there is little hope for them.

 

[bhsup]

Well...if it goes nuclear all bets are off, but here are a couple of possible scenarios...

Russia nukes some large military base in China. China retaliates by turning Vladivostok into a smoking crater. Both sides decide it's not worth it and back down, returning to conventional.

Same as above, but after Vladivostok, Russia goes ballistic (literally) and wins by really ensuring nobody wins. if you know what I mean.



Also, what is Mongolia's role here? Are they the "Belgium" that just gets run over by one of the sides or do Russia and China skirt them?

 

[RedRalph]

Also, what is Mongolia's role here? Are they the "Belgium" that just gets run over by one of the sides or do Russia and China skirt them?

My guess is that Mongolia would want to sit it out, but neither side would pay any attention whatsoever to that.

 

[Patroklos]

Well, bear in mind, western Russia is completely unthreatened, so the Baltic and Black Sea fleets have enough time to head on over... now I know the last time the Russians tried that it didn't work out too well, but would it make any difference this time?

And pretty much the entirety of China is also invulnerable to Russian attack.

I think its pretty clear that China would be more than capable of repelling the entire Russian fleet, but in this case they get to take out 25% of it off the bat.

We saw last year that Russia could barely get two warships to the Venezuala and back under peacetime steaming, I have no confidence in them being able to steam around the world and think it is ridiculous to expect them to be able to support themselves once they got there in wartime conditions.

 

[bhsup]

Aren't you impressed that I, an American, knew that Mongolia was between them??

 

[Desmond Hawkins]

Like in all Tom Clancy books, the Americans come with some special new weapon that rapidly destroys any and all Chinese vehicles from the air, thus ruining any exciting storyline regarding the heroic defense of Russia..

 

[Ecofarm]

Without any changes in government, China is at an advantage here. How long would Russia, being a democracy, put up with a costly war?

Russia = War Weariness FTL

 

[red_elk]

After unsuccessfully trying to hold off Chinese advance in Far East using convential weapons, Russia will use tactical nukes against military objects. Eventually both sides will lose, though formally one of them will "win". That's why this won't happen in next ~20 years, while we still have some rusty Soviet missiles left.

Same as above, but after Vladivostok, Russia goes ballistic (literally) and wins by really ensuring nobody wins. if you know what I mean.

After using WMD against such large civilian object, Russia will go ballistic for sure.

 

[Lillefix]

If China invades Russia, I'm sure Russia will have all the western intelligence agencies on their side. The Chinese leadership will be dead within a month of the attack.

 

[RedRalph]

And pretty much the entirety of China is also invulnerable to Russian attack.

Did you get that the wrong way around? several large Chinese populations centres are near enough the Russian border, none of the major Russians ones are anywhere near the border. So a much larger % of Russia is out of China's reach than vice-versa.

I think its pretty clear that China would be more than capable of repelling the entire Russian fleet, but in this case they get to take out 25% of it off the bat.

Really? I'm surprised by this, I thought Russia was generally considered to be a stronger naval power... isn't the PLA regarded as highly backward?

We saw last year that Russia could barely get two warships to the Venezuala and back under peacetime steaming, I have no confidence in them being able to steam around the world and think it is ridiculous to expect them to be able to support themselves once they got there in wartime conditions.

What do you mean 'barely'? they got there and back with no problems whatsoever AFAIK

 

[RedRalph]

Without any changes in government, China is at an advantage here. How long would Russia, being a democracy, put up with a costly war?

Russia = War Weariness FTL

I appreciate your sudden change in attitude towards Putin because it suits you, but I'm rpetty sure in the circumstances, Russia would be every single bit as authoritarian as the PRC, and better at it too.

 

[The Imp]

The Chinese make some advances, but Russia's superior technology begins to tell, and the Chinese are pushed back. China deals with severe unrest as trade with US collapses due to Russia establishing a naval cordon sanitaire around China, also, Russia blocks up the Straights of Malacca, leading to the oil tape being shut off.

Russia wins.

 

[Desmond Hawkins]

The Russians sold the Chinese some of their best destroyers a little while back.

Since Russia went capitalist they seem to have sold the rope...