Ecofarm
Deity
I'd never seen the Battle Cat. Russia wins.
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China vs Russia
- Thread starter RedRalph
- Start date
Yes, it can, especially since it would be a defensive war against China in all probability.
GinandTonic
Saphire w/ Schweps + Lime
- Joined
- May 25, 2005
- Messages
- 8,898
Indeed. The west would want the status quo maintained, perhaps shifted just a tad in Russia's favour. The old Yes Minister sketch about devide and rule comes to mind.
QuoVadisNation
keeping your angel alive
This doesn't sound implausible.
Gelion
Retired Captain
Which one? Which series?
China would win this with consummate ease. The Russian Pacific Fleet would be bottled up and/or destroyed, China would use its advantage in both numbers and professionalism with regard to its ground forces to push into Russia, seeking to take or neutralise several major transport hubs. With this done, the Far Eastern Russia would collapse; Vladivostok will be isolated, probably surrendering without a fight. If not, it will be starved out.
Once China has done this, they'll systematically set about taking control of Russia's gas and oil production centres and pipelines. I'm assuming they'll stop short of an actual invasion of European Russia, even if the Kremlin stubbornly refuses to negotiate. I also don't foresee the conflict becoming nuclear. If that occurs, Russia wins hands-down, if you can really call that winning.
I foresee Russia very quickly offering China terms. China would initially refuse those terms in order to improve their military position before the inevitable Russian threat to use nuclear weapons. When that happens, China will come to the table, and a deal favourable to China will be agreed upon, probably involving very few territorial changes, but ironclad guarantees of Chinese economic goals.
One cannot discount the possibility of outside interference here. I suspect Georgia would use the war as an opportunity to reclaim South Ossetia and Abkhazia, and Moldova will probably finally seize Transnistria. The reaction of the Baltic States, Ukraine and Poland all depend on what the relationship of those nations to Russia are by this point in time, but I wouldn't put it past any of them to seek territorial benefits by attacking Russia, perhaps even descending into fighting among themselves over certain spoils. Hell, there's even the possibility of Finnish nationalists convincing the nation that now's the time to retake the territories lost in WWII.
Still, I think these nations will be prevented from fighting over Russia's scraps by two things; fear of what Russia will do to them in retaliation once the war with China is over, and Western disapproval of their actions. I foresee the West publicly denouncing all involvement and censuring both sides, while simultaneously offering Russia a great deal of intelligence and logistical aid. I don't think this will be enough to offset China's obvious material advantages, however, though it may be enough to significantly slow their advance. I also wouldn't put it past several Western nations to use dirty tricks - such as assassination - to Russia's benefit, but I think the Chinese will be more than prepared for this.
Another interesting wildcard is Mongolia. Does it attempt to stay out of the war completely knowing that neither side will actually respect its neutrality? Or does it throw its lot in with one side or the other? Personally, I think the smart thing for Mongolia to do would be to support China. If China whoops Russia without Mongolian help, they may well marginalise Mongolia and do their best to make it little more than a Chinese vassal. If they support China, they will probably be treated more nicely. Just because it's the smart thing to do though, does not mean I really think they'll do it. I'm betting that they'll be the Belgium of this conflict.
Eco, where are you getting your information from? Russia is a quasi-democracy at best. In fact, in many ways, the CCP actually has less centralised control of China than Putin does of Russia.
Once China has done this, they'll systematically set about taking control of Russia's gas and oil production centres and pipelines. I'm assuming they'll stop short of an actual invasion of European Russia, even if the Kremlin stubbornly refuses to negotiate. I also don't foresee the conflict becoming nuclear. If that occurs, Russia wins hands-down, if you can really call that winning.
I foresee Russia very quickly offering China terms. China would initially refuse those terms in order to improve their military position before the inevitable Russian threat to use nuclear weapons. When that happens, China will come to the table, and a deal favourable to China will be agreed upon, probably involving very few territorial changes, but ironclad guarantees of Chinese economic goals.
One cannot discount the possibility of outside interference here. I suspect Georgia would use the war as an opportunity to reclaim South Ossetia and Abkhazia, and Moldova will probably finally seize Transnistria. The reaction of the Baltic States, Ukraine and Poland all depend on what the relationship of those nations to Russia are by this point in time, but I wouldn't put it past any of them to seek territorial benefits by attacking Russia, perhaps even descending into fighting among themselves over certain spoils. Hell, there's even the possibility of Finnish nationalists convincing the nation that now's the time to retake the territories lost in WWII.
Still, I think these nations will be prevented from fighting over Russia's scraps by two things; fear of what Russia will do to them in retaliation once the war with China is over, and Western disapproval of their actions. I foresee the West publicly denouncing all involvement and censuring both sides, while simultaneously offering Russia a great deal of intelligence and logistical aid. I don't think this will be enough to offset China's obvious material advantages, however, though it may be enough to significantly slow their advance. I also wouldn't put it past several Western nations to use dirty tricks - such as assassination - to Russia's benefit, but I think the Chinese will be more than prepared for this.
Another interesting wildcard is Mongolia. Does it attempt to stay out of the war completely knowing that neither side will actually respect its neutrality? Or does it throw its lot in with one side or the other? Personally, I think the smart thing for Mongolia to do would be to support China. If China whoops Russia without Mongolian help, they may well marginalise Mongolia and do their best to make it little more than a Chinese vassal. If they support China, they will probably be treated more nicely. Just because it's the smart thing to do though, does not mean I really think they'll do it. I'm betting that they'll be the Belgium of this conflict.
Eco, where are you getting your information from? Russia is a quasi-democracy at best. In fact, in many ways, the CCP actually has less centralised control of China than Putin does of Russia.
Houston calls Lord Baal, please return to this planet...
I'm referring more to a whackjob Ukraine than you guys. Still, you've got your share of nationalistic nuts.Houston calls Lord Baal, please return to this planet...
RedRalph
Deity
- Joined
- Jun 12, 2007
- Messages
- 20,708
Invading European Russia???? Is this a serious post? and as I pointed out in the OP, none of the major oil fields in Siberia are anywhere near the conflict zone.
also, can't say for sure, but does China have a significantly more professional armed forces?
RedRalph
Deity
- Joined
- Jun 12, 2007
- Messages
- 20,708
For anyone who is interested, here it is
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mp0yd6no7B4
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7YCQs...layer_embedded
amadeus
Bishop of Bio-Dome
China buys off the rest of the world and diplomatically isolates Russia.
I said they wouldn't invade European Russia. They don't possess the capability, and I don't see why they'd want to if they did. There's always the chance they'll let the glory of such an enterprise go to their heads, but it's so unlikely as to be barely worth mentioning. I also stated that they'll only start going after pipelines if Russia refuses to come to the table. I doubt it will take Russia that long to play ball.
The PLA has been through a process of modernisation and professionalisation lately. It's not comparable with NATO, by any means, but it's far more than the "human wave" China was famous for in the past. Russia's military, by contrast, has actually been getting worse. Now, that trend may reverse itself by the time period your little prognostication occurs, but it doesn't look like it at the moment. Of course, I don't see Russia doing anything to provoke such a war anyway.
Given the number of Russians in Ukraine and Baltics, that would be a pretty foolproof way to start civil war. There is a very tiny chance Poland might try and take Kaliningrad, though.
But "fighting for spoils"? Come on.
Meh, I'm not saying it's likely. I'm saying I wouldn't put it past you shifty Eastern European types.Given the number of Russians in Ukraine and Baltics, that would be a pretty foolproof way to start civil war. There is a very tiny chance Poland might try and take Kaliningrad, though.
But "fighting for spoils"? Come on.
Thank's.
Second link doesn't work, the video of first flight can be seen here:
http://www.lenta.ru/articles/2010/01/29/pakfa/
aronnax
Let your spirit be free
So Russia will halt world trade and bring on the hatred of the entire world. Nice.
The Malacca Straits are one of the busiest sea-paths in the world and the fastest way from Europe to Japan. Blockading the Strait will bring hostility to the Russians.
Maybe if they time it correctly and take special note of the ocean currents they can clog the Straits with the wreckage?
admiral-bell
Chronic Lurker
- Joined
- Jul 17, 2005
- Messages
- 730
If Wiki can be trusted it seems that Russia would win. It can effectively out-tank the Chinese military, as the PRC relies mainly on a homegrown T-56 variant. The Russian military, on the other hand, uses the more modern T-72s -80s and a smattering of -90s. A ground punch up would probably end in Russia's favor, especially considering the well demonstrated knack of the Russian people for fighting defensive wars.
Link to China
Link to Russia
Link to China
Link to Russia
Oerdin
Deity
I don't see Russia winning a total land war without nukes but if China seems to be winning a total war then there will be nukes. Realistically I just don't see such a war occurring between two nuclear states.
