Complexity and decline

June 24, 2024
The Question of What’s Fair Illuminates the Question of What’s Hard
Computational complexity theorists have discovered a surprising new way to understand what makes certain problems hard.

Theoretical computer scientists deal with complicated ideas. But whenever possible, they’d prefer to work with simpler ones. A 2009 tool known as the regularity lemma gives them a great way to do this. It effectively lets them break a given computational problem or function into simpler pieces.

For computational complexity theorists, who study the relative hardness of different problems, this ability to simplify has long helped them understand unwieldy mathematical functions. But certain problems with complex pieces have still defied analysis.

Now, new work provides a way to analyze those hard-to-understand problems. The advance comes from an unexpected area of computer science: algorithmic fairness, where algorithms like those used by banks and insurance companies are scrutinized to make sure they treat people fairly. The new results show that the fairness tools can effectively map out the different parts of a hard problem and isolate the precise regions of the problem that make it hard to solve.

“It’s really a fantastic work. I think it’s super exciting,” said Michael Kim, a computer scientist at Cornell University who helped build one of the fairness tools that was repurposed in the new work. “As a theorist who’s working in these spaces, it’s kind of an ideal outcome that somebody takes your work from one area and applies it to something else.”

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I'm under the radar too.
Even if I wasn't, I doubt that they have slots in their models for my use of 2B leads and yellow writing pads.
There's no beating The Man, though. My own quirky office supply deviance is yellow and blue 4x6 index cards. Staples just stopped stocking them. Just cut me off, right like that. Cold. And when I ordered some from Amazon, they were 3x5. Who can do anything with 3x5?

Stockpile, dude. Stockpile. Don't let what happened to me happen to you.
 
What is not self sufficient about a community that sends representatives to a congress whose government makes sure that imported oil remains cheap? Isn’t that the very definition of self sufficiency - the ability to support one’s own needs by one’s own power? In this case the power to convince oil to remain cheap.
We might do better to make sure exported oil is expensive.
 
:lol: Of course, of course.
 
where algorithms like those used by banks and insurance companies are scrutinized to make sure they treat people fairly.
They must be really good algorithms because banks & insurance companies are renowned for being fair...

Now consider an algorithm that predicts whether loan applicants are likely to make all their payments. It’s not good enough to have an algorithm that predicts the correct general rate — the 40% chance of rain in our example above. It needs to predict the rate for specific individuals across different population groups in a way that’s both accurate and fair.
Nothing to do with fairness (except perhaps avoiding the liability of the human bias of discriminating against protected classes) and everything to do with maximizing getting paid back, these algorithms are a tool for the banks not the customers
 
these algorithms are a tool for the banks not the customers
Yes they are, but do keep in mind that the banks are the ones with money at risk. We do have programs for those who put the banks at greater risk. They may not be perfect, but they do exist. IIRC the original difference between banks and Savings & Loan entitiess was to make loans more affordable to more people.
 
IIRC the original difference between banks and Savings & Loan entitiess was to make loans more affordable to more people.
When that scandal broke and foreclosures and self hangings washed through the middle of the country(for those of us who remember the Federal Land Bank), how severe were the punishments?

Yeah, **** that. Parasites. Probably the only net benefit they could offer the world is passing from it.
 
I wonder: will there come a point where systems in place become complex beyond our comprehension?
No.
Take economics.
OK.

Economic is a model to describe the behavior of people en masse. As with any model, it can adapt to accept new ideas and theories. It's flexible.

Example. If the question is asked, what are the dangers of AI, you'd need to bring in an AI expert to understand what AI is/will likely be capable of. Then a different expert to understand how companies are likely to adapt the technology, given cost barriers, expected RoI. Then, if necessary, a politician to even have a sense of which(if any) legislative policies can gather enough support to pass.


You might be better off turning to generalists if errors become more likely as experts interact with each other.

Better off? A consensus borne from ignorance is not a good start.
 
Maybe, yes. But that's a matter of shallow ignorance vs deep ignorance.

Specialists are great at being deep.
 
Have you used AI for your own investments?
 
Systems will not become complex beyond our understanding, noted
Better off? A consensus borne from ignorance is not a good start
Consensuses born of ignorance are not good starts

What is the average voter to do, then? Devote the time to gather expertise in all relevant areas while working full time and raising 3 girls? Because they're effectively asked to select the candidates with the best positions across the whole spectrum of issues despite holding no relevant qualifications
 
Maybe, yes. But that's a matter of shallow ignorance vs deep ignorance.

Specialists are great at being deep.
Voidwalkin's scenario imagines a bevy of experts from various fields. Diversity acts against ignorance by encouraging synthesis of viewpoints and by encouraging people to present their views in a manner comprehensible to their diverse audiences (as opposed to being trapped into the language and modes of their specific disciplines by only presenting to those within said disciplines).

What is the average voter to do, then?
Curate trustworthy sources and review them periodically for veracity and utility.

Also: the average voter concerned about this issue should absolutely advocate for robust public education. I'm certain you can imagine how stupid the average voters is; problem being half of the voters are even dumber than that. And they vote. Good public education makes the whole electorate smarter so the average voter ain't quite as dumb as the average four years ago.

So curate sources + vote up the school bill.
 
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Yes. But people only have so much time. They will only learn so much before they shuffle off and the knowledge and expertise resets.

Specialists are great at being deep, but they will not have the breadth of generalists, synthesis or not. If they're incredibly specialized, they'll trend more and more incompetent at navigating correctly understanding different areas even if we fetishize the process.
 
Yes. But people only have so much time. They will only learn so much before they shuffle off and the knowledge and expertise resets.
Being informed takes effort. More broadly, it takes effort to be a good person. I know you, Farmboy, know that effort spent in being a good person is rewarded. Ease is not a virtue in itself, and we should not assume we can make the work of being a good person effortless.

Setting that aside, the sources one curates do not universally need to be primary sources. Find good news sources that you trust to provide you with the information that keep you informed. Generally, it's quicker to read a Reuter's story than a position paper.
 
Voidwalkin's scenario imagines a bevy of experts from various fields. Diversity acts against ignorance by encouraging synthesis of viewpoints and by encouraging people to present their views in a manner comprehensible to their diverse audiences (as opposed to being trapped into the language and modes of their specific disciplines by only presenting to those within said disciplines).
Recent history shows transmission of info in this process less than ideal. Either too slow or too little info.

In the example of the 09 recession expertise was insufficiently transferred both to political decision makers and average voters. W Bush, despite constant access to all the best experts of the USA, not known for his depth of knowledge.

Yours is a rosy picture but reality is a bit darker.
Curate trustworthy sources and review them periodically for veracity and utility.

Also: the average voter concerned about this issue should absolutely advocate for robust public education. I'm certain you can imagine how stupid the average voters is; problem being half of the voters are even dumber than that. And they vote. Good public education makes the whole electorate smarter so the average voter ain't quite as dumb as the average four years ago.
Ability to curate, similarly in question. How do you curate who to trust when you lack knowledge, the only check against deceit?

You posit education as a solution but this is again too rosy. To stay informed, adult education is necessary, but people, particularly working people, don't have the time for that, I'm afraid. And even if they did, ability to memorize and retain information is not guaranteed, factors like cognitive decline from either age or health woes, drug abuse, disinterest, plain lack of natural ability, capability is ravaged over time.

Education has other ceilings, cost of entry, difficulty of transport, disadvantaged quality based on geography of student. Rate of growing complexity exceeds rate education uplifts.
 
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