I might try pursuing that strategy, as trying to grab an early religion with Elizabeth causes the rest of my research to slow. Anyway, the speed I'm playing on is Epic. I apologize for leaving that out.
Also, what is a safe year for building The Oracle on prince at Normal and Epic speeds? The help is much appreciated.
I don't usually go by years for this--when I'm forced to think about it, I'd have to say that I base my assumed chance at an early wonder on the techs and resources I have.
Usually, playing as England, I tend to research Bronze Working, then a few worker techs like Agriculture and the Wheel. I found my 2nd city to snag copper for Axemen, who I use for early anti-barb defense. After that I start researching Mysticism -> Polytheism -> Priesthood. The second city will start building Stonehenge as soon as its able to do so. The capital will continue producing units, Workers, and a couple more Settlers.
If Marble is nearby, I'll found an early city to claim it (and research Masonry). Otherwise, I hope the 2nd city has forests. I won't usually chop more than one forest for Stonehenge, but I may chop 2 or 3 for the Oracle, especially without marble.
This tends to work in most games, with obvious variations. I'll insert worker techs based upon nearby resources. For example, if there are cows in one of the early cities' fat crosses, I'll research Animal Husbandry after Agriculture. Hunting, though, I will put off, even if there are campable resources nearby. Other worker techs I pick up after Priesthood.