Instead of the usual "could Germany have won WWII?" thread, I thought maybe I'd give it a little twist and ask if Japan, under any circumstances, could have won.
Let's say, for example,
Japan focuses entirely on the China campaign and after winning (presuming victory is possible), goes on to fight a two-front war with Germany against the Soviet Union. Would that have bought Japan more time or enough resources? Would the campaigns be so draining that it would be impossible? What if Japan bypasses the Philippines and goes straight for the Dutch East Indies? Just a few sample questions.
The thing is, Japan did focus all its attention on its campaign with China. Lets draw up some numbers for comparison.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_Sino-Japanese_War
Now, according to Wiki, Japan pulled out 4-5 million troops while China defended with 5.5-6 million troops.
For Japan's invasion of Southeast Asia, more specifically, Malaya and Singapore, General Yamashita used about 80,000-100,000 troops. The same troops were used to conquer much of Indonesia. About 130,000 troops were used to capture Philippines.
In contrast 300,000 troops were used in the Battle of Shanghai alone. The Battle of Nanking occupied 240,000 troops, the Battle of Wuhan, 350,000 troops.
Japan was already exhausting all its efforts in pacifying and attacking in China. The 2nd Sino-Japanese war lasted longer than the Japanese Generals expected and as a result sapped up a huge amount of their resources and reserves.
The only reason why Japan managed to even conquer S.E.A is because European resources was being diverted to the European War with Hitler rather than the colonies. Only 2 battleships and no planes protected Singapore against Japan's entire Navy and airforce.
Secondly, not only was China taking up all of Japan's reserved resources, Japan could not replenish its resources fast enough (which was why Japan invaded S.E.A) in the first place. The American embargo and Japan's war with Europe entirely cut off its trade in oil, iron, rubber, coal and other rare materials. The invasion of S.E.A was in an act of desperation, it was a do or die situation (actually more delayed death or immediate death situation) to attack S.E.A for their resources. Japan simply could not sustain it's war effort and it certainly could not have survived till 1945 without S.E.A. By the end of the war, the home islands were stripped bare of supplies. The Japanese would have starved to death if they continued the war.
So Japan could not have just wrapped up the war with China and invade Siberia. There weren't enough troops to do so in the first place. Even if they took all the men from war in S.E.A and pushed it in China instead, they could at most muster up 200,000-400,000. It just simply did not have the military capabilities to do so.
Lastly, the introduction of the US in war more or less, accelerated the final demise of the Japanese military machine. There was no way that the Japanese could face up to the might of the Americans, even if they didn't used the bombs and landed on the main islands, Japan would have lost eventually after months of fighting to the last man.
