Cumulative Death Chance?

[Evalis]

So I've started up an orbis game or two (taking a break from FF) but have quickly noticed that the mathematical calculations for winning don't seem particularily accurate. There are one of two things that are causing this:

1: Defensive strikes are not taken into consideration when attacking (easily explains why I so often lose 95+ odds battles)

2: Units have a cumulative death chance based on their 'supposed' chance to have survived in that unit info panel.

Someone mind shedding some light on this? It's gotten to the point where I'm afraid to attack anything with my core units, even with 95% or higher odds.

 

[KrugSmash]

There's a third explanation of course, which is that random means random and you're having a string of bad luck.

I lose about 1 in 10 battles with 90% odds, which is exactly what 90% means.

That said, quicksave(shiftF5) and quickload(shiftF8) and the 'new random seed on reload' option are your friends.

 

[Psychic_Llamas]

That said, quicksave(shiftF5) and quickload(shiftF8) and the 'new random seed on reload' option are your friends.

if thats the case so is worldbuilder and deleting all youre enemies.

 

[KrugSmash]

if thats the case so is worldbuilder and deleting all youre enemies.

Yea, so it's cheating, but I get so attached to these units that have been with me for so long, I just can't stand the 1 in 10-20 chance of death. It's a weakness of mine.

 

[Evalis]

Erm.. about the 'random chance' bit.. I think I deserve a bit more credit in recognizing when something goes faulty. It's like when you attack a creature across a river from a tile more than 1 square away. The odds might 'say' 90%+, but until the unit actually moves adjacent to the river, it won't recalculate the 'crossing a river' penalty.

There were several cases where I attacked with 99.9% odds and LOST.. and many others that seemed relatively a sure win that resulted in losses that left the defender barely scathed (or the attacking unit almost dead). I tested this on several occassions (saving, reloading) and it appears to have stopped happening once I picked up blur (ignores defensive strikes). I'm almost certain the calculations on defensive strikes are simply not very accurate. In the alternative, it may have just been 'certain' units that escaped death so many times the game felt they needed a nudge..

 

[Valkrionn]

Actually, I remember an old discussion about how Defensive Strikes aren't really taken into account for the attack odds... This was back when they first came out, so it may have been fixed, but you may well be correct.

 

[Sephi]

Defensive Strikes and First Strikes both make numbers close to 99% not accurate.

 

[Plopp]

I am of the same oppinion as the OP that defencive strikes arent taken into consideration when calculating the odds, Ive had the same problems myself and it was pretty confusing at first when I lost a bunch of units in a row to 95% odds over and over again using the "new random seed on reload" option turned on.


It gets frustrating when your heroes have a 99.9% chance to win and they still loose.
Even if we dont get a calculation that takes this in consideration it would be nice to have another % chance that shows how likely your unit is to be the victim of a defencive strike (and maybe what damage range it will have).

 

[Sephi]

even if you include defensive strikes into the calculation, it would show quite often 99.99% when in fact the odds are only 97%. If anything, I would also display the odds with worst luck (means the enemy succeeds at a defensive strike and the unit gets no firststrikechances)

 

[[to_xp]Gekko]

this would be sweet, combat odds can get very misleading when first strikes and defensive strikes are involved, which is definitely annoying...

 

[Valkrionn]

I'm considering merging this into FFPlus... http://forums.civfanatics.com/downloads.php?do=file&id=12842

Shows best odds, worst odds, and retreat odds... Along with a ton of other information.

I believe Rise of Darkness already has it, as well.

 

[Sephi]

well, it wouldn't solve the problem here. It does show a lot of information, but how much of that is actually useful? Guess that is a matter of taste.

 

[Valkrionn]

That's why I haven't done it yet; Would need to code it to include Defensive Strikes, and I'm not sure how just yet.

I would most likely leave it on the minimal settings, however... But other people can adjust that. Assuming I ever do merge it.

 

[Plopp]

even if you include defensive strikes into the calculation, it would show quite often 99.99% when in fact the odds are only 97%. If anything, I would also display the odds with worst luck (means the enemy succeeds at a defensive strike and the unit gets no firststrikechances)

The problem seems to be with units that do like 20% dmg or more (promod up etc) on their defencive strikes, not the rookie archers doing 1% or 3% defencive strike dmg, and thats a whole lot more than going from 99% to 97%.

 

[Ogden Reeve]

i thought the defensive strike is only calculated AFTER you initiated the attack. in that case its impossible for you to see correct combat odds.

But its just a fact of the game that when attacking cities with experienced specialized defenders you're going to encounter serious defensive strikes. thats why i attack with fireballs or other summons so the defensive strikes are wasted on those. or use blur.

 

[iffi]

This happened already several weeks ago, so can't remember all the details.

Satyrs were listed as having no city attack penalty, although I now believe they still do have it as a hidden feature. I lost with them almost every city attack I made, all with very high calculated odds of winning. No defensive strikes were involved I seem to remember. All the other units won their match-ups as expected.