It sounds like I play the same way you do, Snarz. One or two cities, usually still go for the NC.
You mentioned you jinxed yourself - I just played a number of games trying to identify the contributing factors to early DOW's, and I bumped into the opposite situation you did. I had one of the most peaceful openings I've ever encountered, and the reason for it was purely topological.
I had a great science start but a bad defensive position. I started one hex away from Marble on a plain hex, meaning I could move one hex, spawn the city on turn 1, and get the wonder bonus w/o researching masonry or building a mine. sooo, I decided to try it the other way, ie, paint as big a target on myself as possible. (Research to Philosophy, build wonders instead of archers, that sort of thing.)
My two close neighbors were China and the Mongols, who were pretty close to each other. They started declaring war immediately (first DOW on turn 18) - but against each other, not me. It's now turn 55 and they've already been to war 3 times, completely ignoring me.
This isn't a good thing, by the way. Starting topology is pure luck. Shouldn't be so chancy.
I'm going to replay this start after taking a little road trip here. (Of course I'm going to bump into a near-perfect setup when I don't really have time to play.) I also popped Pottery on turn 8 from a ruin, got a nearby Maritime city-state with a barbarian encampment next to it, just nice.
I want to post a screenshot of this start, btw. Two Gold hexes, the Marble, horses, nearby forest, some stone and cows. I don't usually post these, don't know where the screenshot files go. Help?