Environment gets Bushed

Yes I do. Now debate the point of the post. If you aren't to busy trolling me.

Just a reminder that the following things are caused by global warming.:
<clip long list of stuff removed here<clip>

Ok.

It's a collection of links from all over saying controversial things about climate change. One could probably do similar collection about any subject.

What was your point in this debate when posting it (it has serious meaning as you've confirmed)?

'Just a reminder'? So, you firmly believe all those links to be true?
 
Moderator Action: A lot of heat in here, how bout we debate global warming without contributing to it.
 
Because they are just too small by your declaration.

Very well. *sigh* Let me actually do the math and pluck your numbers apart.



This number is completely useless. Small things can have a greater effect than you would suspect. Beginning with the fact that the little, little CO2 which you hardly deem worthy mentioning because it's just 0.038% is actually necessary for life. Which does NOT mean that too much isn't bad.



So, how large is the Greenhouse Effect? It's commonly estimated at about 32 degrees Kelvin and since you posted no other number that's the one I'll go with. So 5% of 32 degrees is 1.6 Kelvin. An increase by 32% would then cause a rise of temperature by 0.51 degrees. Isn't that far below what we observe, is it? Note that I used a low number from the 4.2-8.4 intervall. Obviously this is a rough estimate, I miss a couple of positive and negative feedbacks loops, but using only the two numbers you posted GW is very plausible.



True... and what does that tell us? Does that mean the CO2 we output is not enough in tons for the additional tons that appeared in the atmosphere? But it is, that's a simple checking of the numbers. Maybe you mean it's effect on the natural balance is too low? Let's try that.

Let F(t) be the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere at time t. We can model the change by

F'(t) = O(F,t) + H(F,t) - A(F,t).

Here N is the natural output, H is the human output and A is what is absorbed or turned back into O2 and C.

Now, your numbers claim

F'(t) = 1.034 * O(F,t) - A(F,t). And here we stop because we can do nothing at all without studying A, i.e. the CO2 sinks of the world in detail. Of importance is here mainly the dependence of A and F,t. And in similar equations of that form occuring in nature there are very different forms of A's occuring. Easy ones would be

A = const. (example being human breakdown of alcohol in bloodstream)
A = k*F, k being a positive constant (population curves)

In the first case the excess would simply accumulate in the atmosphere, while the second one would support your point.
This shows that this number alone is worthless and the fact that you failed to realize it shows that you don't know what you are talking about.
Great so where is warming?

Since the warming isn't there then CO2 isn't that major of a contributing factor contrary to the hype. And since man only produces a small fraction of the worlds CO2 the hype about how global warming is man made from mans release of CO2 is just hype. So we have CO2 a small % of the green house gasses. And a smaller % of that which is man made. The hype tells me we are in a climate crisis that is do to man made CO2. It isn't. The CO2 we do make "extra" isn't enough to raise the climate to "crisis" levels like the hype keeps telling us. Useless numbers indeed. Showing that CO2 is a marginal driver at best is just useless. Showing that the numbers are low is useless. It is counter to the hype claims. And any one who dares to show that CO2 numbers are actually rather low knows nothing about CO2.

GW may be plausible but it isn't happening.

http://folk.uio.no/tomvs/esef/esef2.htm
Spoiler :
Our relatively high global atmospheric temperature near the surface of the Earth, with an average of 14 to 15 degrees C, is caused by heat-absorbing gases in the atmosphere, mainly H2O vapor. Without the Earth's atmosphere the surface temperature would be approximately -18 degrees C.

The Earth receives about 1368 W/m2 of radiative heat from the Sun. The total amount of this heat withheld, approximately 11%, in the Earth's lower atmosphere, has traditionally been named the Earth's "Greenhouse Effect". For a cloudless atmosphere this effect is on the average about 146 W/m2 for the Earth, with an uncertainty of ± 5 to 10 W/m2 due to analytic uncertainties and natural climatic variations. All human activities have been claimed to contribute about 1.3% of this (approx. 2 W/m2), while a hypothetic doubling of the atmospheric CO2 concentration would contribute about 2.6% (approx. 4 W/m2) to the present "Greenhouse Effect" (Raval & Ramanathan, 1989; Ramanathan et al., 1989).

150 year long time series of temperature measurements are covering too short time spans to be useful for climate prediction, in order to be used as "evidence" for anthropogenic heating (or cooling). The global mean temperature has risen and fallen several times over the last 400 years, with no evidence of anthropogenic causes, although strong explosive volcanic eruptions have caused periodically colder climates (Jaworowski et al., 1992 a).

It should also be noted that clouds can reflect up to approx. 50 W/m2 and can absorb up to approx. 30 W/m2 of the solar radiation (Ramanathan et al., 1989), making the Earth's average "Greenhouse Effect" vary naturally within approx. 96 and 176 W/m2. Hence the anticipated anthropogenic atmospheric CO2 heat absorption is much smaller than the natural variation of the Earth's "Greenhouse Effect" (Segalstad & Jaworowski, 1991).

The oceans act as a huge heat energy buffer; the global climate is primarily governed by the enormous amount of heat stored in the oceans (total mass approx. 1.4 x 1024 g), rather than the minute amount of heat withheld in the heat-absorbing part of the atmosphere (total mass approx. 1.4 x 1018 g), a mass difference of one million times (Peixoto & Oort, 1992). Most of the atmospheric heat absorption occurs in water vapor (total mass approx. 1.3 x 1019 g), which is equivalent to a uniform layer of only 2.5 cm of liquid water covering the globe, with a residence time of about 9 days (Peixoto & Oort, 1992).

The total internal energy of the whole ocean is more than 1.6 x 1027 Joule, about 2000 times larger than the total internal energy 9.4 x 1023 Joule of the whole atmosphere. Note that this energy is defined with respect to 0 degrees Kelvin (Peixoto & Oort, 1992).

Furthermore the cryosphere (ice sheets, sea ice, permafrost, and glaciers; total mass of the continental ice is approx. 3.3 x 1022 g) plays a central role in the Earth's climate as an effective heat sink for the atmosphere and oceans, with a large latent heat of melting on the order of 9.3 x 1024 Joule, a hypothetic energy equivalent to cooling the entire oceans by about 2 degrees C (5.8 x 1024Joule/degree C). For comparison, the energy needed to warm the entire atmosphere by 1 degree C is only 5.1 x 1021 Joule (Oerlemans & van der Veen, 1984).

Hence it will be impossible to melt the Earth's ice caps and thereby increase the sea level just by increasing the heat energy of the atmosphere through a few percent by added heat absorption of anthropogenic CO2 in the lower atmosphere.
 
After reading this I have come to a conclusion. Maybe we need to not even acknowledge the anti global warming proponents and engage with them in arguments. They should be left talking to a brick wall. Where they should remain... permanently.
 
I pointed out a fact so that others see your post for what it is.
Your post had zero facts. I mean none at all. Well, you got your username right, that's all.

We don't know exactly how much CO2 individual nations are belching, because it's a GAS. We don't have any reliable way to measure gas departing smokestacks. We can only guess.

I said in my post that we don't know for sure. You did not. Therefore you're the one who's full of crap.

Anyway, how does that explain U.S. Enviromental activists? Do they all hate their country?
You know what? I've got no idea what their motive is.

The only thing I claimed to know about them is what their motive is NOT. Since they (and you) are not properly addressing the sources of the problem (there are at least three), their motive is not to protect the environment.



How should I do that here? Is there any Chinese person in this thread I can argue with? I don't argue about China here, because no one from there will actually listen in.
See? You just admitted it yourself: you are not attacking the real source of the problem.

Well, lemme tell you how to do it (why am I always the one everybody else looks to for the answers???): you tell China that global warming will destroy China long before it destroys the U.S.; tell them the U.S. is a lot richer (per capita--wealth is something that CAN be measured accurately); tell them that when (or rather, IF) global warming decimates the planet, the U.S. will be able to adapt much better than China will. Tell them that, in sum, China has to act to reduce its own emissions to save its own ass and avoid being relegated to living as a Third World nation--errr, wait, they're Third World already. Oopsie.

Since the U.S. will never do anything about it, just because you don't want them to? Right? :rolleyes:
Go take a look at the latest polls. A majority of Americans favor more domestic drilling. Global warming is no longer the first dish on America's plate. Many millions of Americans are now worrying about other things besides global warming. I am not unique or special (except for my vast intellect, which I mostly waste on Sudoku puzzles and those confusing metal tavern puzzles because I'm getting bored with trying to solve all the world's problems). I am merely one of many millions who care more about high gas prices than about global warming.


But enough about me. I've got the solution to the whole global warming problem. The catch is that the Nations of the Earth don't want to shaft their economies in order to save the environment. So, very simply, we need to come up with technologies that will stop global warming without significant impact on national economies. Probably it will have to be nuclear power.
 
Lemme tell y'all what China is doing right now: they are industrializing. At the expense of the environment. And, when other nations demand that China do its part to combat global warming, China's answer is a very blunt and straightforward "bite me". China has said very plainly that they will not take any action against global warming that hampers their economic growth. They refuse to pay to offset the damage they're doing (which is a LOT) and they refuse to stop doing that damage.

When (or, rather, if) China catches up to the U.S., they will be doing THREE TIMES as much damage to the environment as the U.S.; the same holds true for India, by the way, but for some reason India keeps slipping off the radar. Both of these extremely large nations must be held to account.

When global warming activists point the finger at the U.S. and ignore China and India, it becomes clear that the environment is not their real agenda at all.

Oh dear. I am hesitant to do this, because you and I have had it out oh so many times in various other threads.

But really, I don't see why China and India industrializing suggests that we should do nothing to cut down emissions. Seems to me like we should be doing 3 times as much to counteract the extra damage done by them. Which leads to the obvious question of 'why should we cut back when they won't? Why cripple ourselves?'

That's a two part answer. First of all, the US, UK, Canada, Australia, France, Russia, Germany, Japan etc. have been doing exactly what China and India will do for the last 150 years. GB for more than that. If it was possible to tally up total emissions since the industrial revolution, I would think that the industrialised West has emitted so much that it will take China and India decades to make up that gap. That does not make what they are doing right. It does not mean that we should ignore it. But they do have a right to expand their economy, and it seems rather unfair to use our mess as the argument saying they can't. Besides, like you said, they outright refuse to do anything about it, so lets focus our efforts at home, where the will is there. Once we ourselves have made the cuts, and shown that it is possible, we'll be in a much better position, morally and technologically, to make them do the same a few decades down the road. A faster solution would be of course be preferable, but should we not take action where we can?


Secondly, the effect a drastic emissions reduction would have on the economies in question deserves a look I think. Over the last few decades, we've seen a lot of jobs get outsourced to the third world where cheap labour is available. A lot of this has been heavy industry, which is quite polluting. Putting extreme pressure on these industries overseas would be devastating to third world economies. However, it would be far less catastrophic to the West, who's economies have largely shifted over to white-collar work.

Lets also look at just how emissions cuts would be made. My own favorite is the switch over to electric vehicles. While not feasible for things like shipping, heavily used vehicles (such as farming equipment), and perhaps long distance traffic (God knows we North Americans love it), the vast majority of North American and European vehicles are only used for short trips in concentrated timespans. If effective hydrogen vehicles can be brought to market, those could even replace the entire fleet. This switch will of course require large infrastructural changes; changes the West is best suited to implement. Our oil based infrastructure is largely paid for, losses from replacing it would be minimal - this is not the case in the third world.


Basically, so long as you acknowledge that emissions cuts are neccesary, it's tough to argue that they shouldn't be happening in the West. Conveniently enough, the recent oil boom looks to be pushing the will of most westerners towards increased efficiency already, all it needs is a little extra push from governments.
 
Your post had zero facts. I mean none at all. Well, you got your username right, that's all.

We don't know exactly how much CO2 individual nations are belching, because it's a GAS. We don't have any reliable way to measure gas departing smokestacks. We can only guess.

I said in my post that we don't know for sure. You did not. Therefore you're the one who's full of crap.

The trick is to measure the amount of hydrocarbon burned, then via some simple chemical calculation you can work out the amount of CO2 created.
 
We don't know exactly how much CO2 individual nations are belching, because it's a GAS. We don't have any reliable way to measure gas departing smokestacks. We can only guess.

I said in my post that we don't know for sure. You did not. Therefore you're the one who's full of crap.

Neither did I claim that we know the exact numbers for each country. I know those are estimates, which BTW is why I was cautious to say the U.S. is still ahead of China in absolute terms (which it is according to at least some statistics) because they are at about the same level.

OTH saying that India produces more CO2 than the U.S. is either grossly misinformed or a malicious lie, unless you can show a good reason why those estimates should have a n error of about 500%! Didn't see you concede that you got that little fact right and that says already much about how you think.

You know what? I've got no idea what their motive is.

The only thing I claimed to know about them is what their motive is NOT. Since they (and you) are not properly addressing the sources of the problem (there are at least three), their motive is not to protect the environment.

That's . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. We are in a discussion forum. Which is more I don't think I even mentioned the U.S. before you had your little tantrum. Nor have I proposed any remedies at all. You are paranoid.
 
Ok.

It's a collection of links from all over saying controversial things about climate change. One could probably do similar collection about any subject.

What was your point in this debate when posting it (it has serious meaning as you've confirmed)?

'Just a reminder'? So, you firmly believe all those links to be true?

I'm waiting for the serious discussion. :mad:
 
The trick is to measure the amount of hydrocarbon burned, then via some simple chemical calculation you can work out the amount of CO2 created.
No dice. How efficiently is said hydrocarbon burned??? Diesel fuel is especially notorious here--it burns very efficiently at freeway speeds, but poorly at parking lot speeds. But all gasoline-burning vehicles have the same problem: they run poorly--and spew more carbon monoxide and particulate crap--when the engine is cold, or running the car at five miles an hour in a traffic jam.

How often do Americans drive at what speed? The only way to answer this accurately is to check EVERY single car, EVERY moment that it's on the road. This is simple impossible to do. It's a very common statistical problem.

I've got an official name for the little delusion you suffered: I call it "Star Trek Syndrome". It's the delusion that we can point a tricorder at something and measure it exactly. We can't. The tricorder is nothing but a piece of plastic with fake control panel and spliced-in sound effects. We cannot know exactly (or even approximately) how much plant or animal biomass exists on Earth right now (both of which are essential in order to predict climate change), we cannot know exactly what the planet's average ocean temperature or atmosphere temperature are (also essential) and we cannot know exactly how much CO2 is being belched by who.

It is not possible to know these things.

So, whenever somebody says they do know, I automatically scoff at them. :coffee:
 
You don't even remember who you are replying to and drop off another random link?

Its not a random link it has to do with the subject in my questions and an earlier discussion.

Discus the subject mater not how I post.
 
Oh dear. I am hesitant to do this, because you and I have had it out oh so many times in various other threads.
Believe me, you and I co-exist very pleasantly compared to some of the complete (*&#$*(@&s I've had to put up with in here (those people are thankfully very few in number)

But really, I don't see why China and India industrializing suggests that we should do nothing to cut down emissions.
And I don't see why our (alleged) need to cut emissions suggests that China and India don't need to reduce theirs. They do. If China and India are not handled (by threat of violence if nothing else) the problem will not be solved.

Frankly, however (this is something I completely forgot about until just now) the problem probably already has been solved. With oil prices what they are right now, China and India are pretty seriously hosed. Their economic development has been badly hampered by the high price of oil. Maybe that was George Bush's plan all along....... :)


Once we ourselves have made the cuts, and shown that it is possible, we'll be in a much better position, morally and technologically
Dude, I've seen that one a couple million times already in the past.....errr.....however many years it was that I've argued this sort of thing online. A lot of years.

Lead by example, eh? Lemme tell you what will actually happen. The U.S. will lead by example, bend over and take it in the ass to save the planet. We will cut our emissions and shaft our economy in the process--which will allow China to continue their massive and extremely dirty industrialization, and pass us up as the Number One Superpower. Human history has always been this way.

The U.S. led by example and gave women the right to vote. You don't see a lot of other nations following our example.

The U.S. led by example and is destroying its stocks of chemical and biological weapons. Same result.

The U.S. has reduced its nuclear armament several times since the Reagan Administration. Same result again.

The U.S. led by example and kicked Saddam Hussein's ass so hard he had to take off his shoes to watch television. You know how that ended: NOBODY ELSE ON THE ENTIRE PLANET FOLLOWED OUR EXAMPLE. In fact everybody else on the planet stood there all jaw-dropped and went "WHAT THE HELL ARE YOU YANKEES DOING!?!?!?"

When you lead by example, you get screwed.


Lets also look at just how emissions cuts would be made. My own favorite is the switch over to electric vehicles.
Where are you gonna get the electricity.....?

If effective hydrogen vehicles can be brought to market, those could even replace the entire fleet.
Where are you gonna get the power to produce the hydrogen gas.....? Do you know how much electricity it takes to separate hydrogen out of water? I'll give you a hint: more than you would gain from burning the gas you produce.

The same problem holds with these new-fangled hybrid cars. Where do you get the motive force to charge the battery??? From gasoline. Hybrid cars actually don't save anything emission-wise.


Phew. Long post. Here's hoping this thread doesn't go all "greenpeace" on me. Probably too late. :)
 
It is not possible to know these things.

So let me summarize.

1. You say that India and China are a bigger problem since they output more CO2 than the US.
2. After being shown that this claim is at least wrong for India, you
3. claim that the numbers are all useless and it's impossible to measure it to any degree of accuracy at all.

So why did you start with comparing total CO2 output at all? :crazyeye:

And if you are so certain it can't be done, do you actually have an idea what methods are used to calculate these numbers? All you present so far is an argument from incredulity

BTW, Poland, Denmark and several other countries had women suffrage before you did.
 
No dice. How efficiently is said hydrocarbon burned??? Diesel fuel is especially notorious here--it burns very efficiently at freeway speeds, but poorly at parking lot speeds. But all gasoline-burning vehicles have the same problem: they run poorly--and spew more carbon monoxide and particulate crap--when the engine is cold, or running the car at five miles an hour in a traffic jam.

How often do Americans drive at what speed? The only way to answer this accurately is to check EVERY single car, EVERY moment that it's on the road. This is simple impossible to do. It's a very common statistical problem.

I've got an official name for the little delusion you suffered: I call it "Star Trek Syndrome". It's the delusion that we can point a tricorder at something and measure it exactly. We can't. The tricorder is nothing but a piece of plastic with fake control panel and spliced-in sound effects. We cannot know exactly (or even approximately) how much plant or animal biomass exists on Earth right now (both of which are essential in order to predict climate change), we cannot know exactly what the planet's average ocean temperature or atmosphere temperature are (also essential) and we cannot know exactly how much CO2 is being belched by who.

It is not possible to know these things.

So, whenever somebody says they do know, I automatically scoff at them. :coffee:

You're the only person who sees this as an issue.

I don't know my weight exactly. I can only measure it to within +/- 5 grams, and - shock, horror - it varies through the day with ingestion, digestion, sweating and excretion.

Does this mean I can't tell when to diet (or at least lay off the third beer)? Nope - I know my weight to an acceptable level of accuracy for the assessment that I need to make.

Similarly we do not need to know each country's emissions to within a few tons of CO2 to conclude which nations and lifestyles are the most polluting and need to take most urgent action to deliver the most benefit. Your stated requirement to know exactly before taking any action is just hokum...

BFR
 
Believe me, you and I co-exist very pleasantly compared to some of the complete (*&#$*(@&s I've had to put up with in here (those people are thankfully very few in number)

Good to know.

And I don't see why our (alleged) need to cut emissions suggests that China and India don't need to reduce theirs. They do. If China and India are not handled (by threat of violence if nothing else) the problem will not be solved.

I think they do. But they're not going to stop, as they've said themselves. Nor would they ever stop in the face of a diplomatic solution, because I think the West would have any such thing tailor-made to ensure we're getting the better deal.

A military solution certainly is an option, one that may even need to be considered later, seeing as a concentrated bombing campaign would pretty much solve the problem. I just don't think the US public is ready to stomach that one.

Frankly, however (this is something I completely forgot about until just now) the problem probably already has been solved. With oil prices what they are right now, China and India are pretty seriously hosed. Their economic development has been badly hampered by the high price of oil. Maybe that was George Bush's plan all along....... :)

It is an interesting issue, it'll be interesting to see what the Chinese government does about they're oil subsidies as the price continues to climb to reasonable levels. (I think $135/b is still undervalued).

Dude, I've seen that one a couple million times already in the past.....errr.....however many years it was that I've argued this sort of thing online. A lot of years.

Lead by example, eh? Lemme tell you what will actually happen. The U.S. will lead by example, bend over and take it in the ass to save the planet. We will cut our emissions and shaft our economy in the process--which will allow China to continue their massive and extremely dirty industrialization, and pass us up as the Number One Superpower. Human history has always been this way.

The U.S. led by example and gave women the right to vote. You don't see a lot of other nations following our example.

Actually, New Zealand had it first ;) And then 9/10 Canadian provinces beat you by a solid 2 years. :mischief:

The U.S. led by example and is destroying its stocks of chemical and biological weapons. Same result.

The U.S. has reduced its nuclear armament several times since the Reagan Administration. Same result again.

The U.S. led by example and kicked Saddam Hussein's ass so hard he had to take off his shoes to watch television. You know how that ended: NOBODY ELSE ON THE ENTIRE PLANET FOLLOWED OUR EXAMPLE. In fact everybody else on the planet stood there all jaw-dropped and went "WHAT THE HELL ARE YOU YANKEES DOING!?!?!?"

Well, Iraq is something of a special case (unless you mean Desert Storm), seeing as people still don't think that was the right idea, and it hasn't exactly turned out to be the cake walk the administration was adverstising.

But I agree, the US unilaterally imposing emissions cuts and such won't be enough to pull China and India along. But I do think that unless the West shows their own willingness to change, any effort to force that change on China and India will be very poorly recieved by the world community, and outright rejected by the Chinese and Indians themselves.

I also believe it shows we're actually taking the threat seriously. I wouldn't be surprised at all if a great deal of Indians and Chinese believed the GW was just some demon cooked up by the West as an excuse to keep developing economies down, and so maintain the West's position in the world.

When you lead by example, you get screwed.

But in this case, we're only screwed faster if we don't lead by example. Set the precedent, then enforce it on the rest of the world.

Where are you gonna get the electricity.....?

Burn fuel oil if you want. My big problem with a future of gasoline vehicles is that it's very expensive to increase efficiency, and difficult for a government to control and enforce standards on older vehicles, since there are what, billions of them in the United States alone?

Electric and Hydrogen vehicles produce no emissions at the car itself, instead displacing thier emissions to whatever plant is producing the power/cracking hydrogen. It seems like a zero sum problem, but it's not. Obviously, building a consumer level solar powered car is impossible with current technologies. But if we could run electric vehicles off a central grid, suddenly we could use solar power, as we could just build a massive field of them in the middle of some desert. The same logic applies to any renewable source.

The real beauty however, it that the same idea also applies if we were generating this power from fossil fuels. It is vastly easier, and vastly cheaper to install scrubbing technologies in one huge powerplant (or many smaller ones) rather than in millions, if not billions of vehicles. It's also easier to replace the equipment in one power plant should more efficient designs come along. Really it's just economy of scale.

Plus electric cars have better acceleration, and make that cool screaming noise when you really push them :p

Where are you gonna get the power to produce the hydrogen gas.....? Do you know how much electricity it takes to separate hydrogen out of water? I'll give you a hint: more than you would gain from burning the gas you produce.

This is true, but like I said above, it gives us more options for power sources, and it's easier to scrub afterwards. You do lose efficiency in the dual burn situation, but you make it up by not moving billions of barrels of oil around.

The same problem holds with these new-fangled hybrid cars. Where do you get the motive force to charge the battery??? From gasoline. Hybrid cars actually don't save anything emission-wise.

This isn't so true. Yes, gasoline is still the only real mover, but normally when you brake, energy is just being bled away, and is irrecoverable by the vehicle. If you push it into a battery, and then use this charge to accelerate the car later, you've wasted less energy, and so require less gasoline to burn.


Phew. Long post. Here's hoping this thread doesn't go all "greenpeace" on me. Probably too late. :)

No kidding on the length. As for greenpeacing the thread, I don't really know what you mean, but I'm no fan of Greenpeace myself. I've just read one too many article on the benifits of centralizing our power production.
 
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