Facebook as an indicator of popularity of Civ V
- Thread starter Javiar
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Louis XXIV
Le Roi Soleil
Civ4 has also been around longer.
awesome
Meme Lord
much longer, actually. civ5's been out for less than a year and it already has more than a third of the likes that civ4 does, which has been out for several years.
need my speed
Rex Omnium Imperarium
From which we can conclude that Civilization IV is better. Why? Most of the people on Facebook are stupid FPS playing dimwitted fools... Or something like that. 
SpearMan153
Prince
ha ha does that mean civ4 players are dumbed down facebook lovers? (joke)
need my speed
Rex Omnium Imperarium
No, Civlization V players, because there are relatively speaking much more of them on Facebook than Civilization IV players. Thus, Civilization V is indeed dumbed down, stupid, and whatever you can think of, while Civilization IV is a great game.
Teperi Blaze
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From which we can conclude that Civilization IV is better. Why? Most of the people on Facebook are stupid FPS playing dimwitted fools... Or something like that.
Don't you insult my wife!!!!!!
need my speed
Rex Omnium Imperarium
You're saying your wife is a stupid FPS playing dimwitted fool? Better get a divorce counselor, quick!
Hmmm... Well, you have some data, but how about a theory to back up your point?
Let's try this one on for size. We'd expect that the number of likes is proportional to the number of people who have seen that link, and as for the reason you brough it up the number of people that actually like CiV. Let's define some variables and see if we can get to the bottom of this:
P: Number of people
P_4: People who like Civ IV
P_5: People who like Civ V
To a good fit the number of people may defined as a function P(t) where t is defined as the number of days since the facebook began. Let's just assume that the probability of someone finding this group is only dependant upon them enjoying the game and not just spotting someone else liking it like most people of facebook. From this it is safe to assume that the number of people who 'like' each can be defined as:
Likes_IV=Int[P(t)*P_4,{t,r_IV,t_0}]
Likes_V=Int[P(t)*P_5,{t,r_V,t_0}]
Where here r_IV is the release of Civ IV and r_V is the same for Civ V. Here from data on wikipedia the function P(t)=(2*10^6)*Exp(0.0024t)=a*Exp[b*t] for simplicity. Here r_IV=663 and r_V=2455 as well as t_0=2622. As such we may solve the above equations for the relative number people liking each game.
Likes_IV=Int[P(t)*P_4,{t,r_IV,t_0}]
Likes_IV=(a(Exp[b*t_0]-Exp[b*r_IV])P_4)/b
Which means that:
P_4=b*Likes_IV/(a(Exp[b*t_0]-Exp[b*r_IV]))
And of course:
P_5=b*Likes_V/(a(Exp[b*t_0]-Exp[b*r_V]))
Calculating this gives:
P_4=5.27569*10^-8
P_5=5.4846*10^-8
Which taking this as a ratio gives:
P_5/P_4=1.04
In other words according to this the numbers are about the same, which considering the fan community is probably about right. Whilst many people loved Civ IV and quite a few don't like Civ V as it stands, (or stood with this new patch) there are undoubtably some new fans out there that would make up the lost numbers. That and it's shiny and new... Also note that the probability isn't that a few in a 100 mil people like Civ, but rather that the number that was calculated was actually the number of people that will like Civ IV or Civ V per day per person.
...come to think of it that was kind of pointless... Oh well. You can find statistics to backup any point though.
Let's try this one on for size. We'd expect that the number of likes is proportional to the number of people who have seen that link, and as for the reason you brough it up the number of people that actually like CiV. Let's define some variables and see if we can get to the bottom of this:
P: Number of people
P_4: People who like Civ IV
P_5: People who like Civ V
To a good fit the number of people may defined as a function P(t) where t is defined as the number of days since the facebook began. Let's just assume that the probability of someone finding this group is only dependant upon them enjoying the game and not just spotting someone else liking it like most people of facebook. From this it is safe to assume that the number of people who 'like' each can be defined as:
Likes_IV=Int[P(t)*P_4,{t,r_IV,t_0}]
Likes_V=Int[P(t)*P_5,{t,r_V,t_0}]
Where here r_IV is the release of Civ IV and r_V is the same for Civ V. Here from data on wikipedia the function P(t)=(2*10^6)*Exp(0.0024t)=a*Exp[b*t] for simplicity. Here r_IV=663 and r_V=2455 as well as t_0=2622. As such we may solve the above equations for the relative number people liking each game.
Likes_IV=Int[P(t)*P_4,{t,r_IV,t_0}]
Likes_IV=(a(Exp[b*t_0]-Exp[b*r_IV])P_4)/b
Which means that:
P_4=b*Likes_IV/(a(Exp[b*t_0]-Exp[b*r_IV]))
And of course:
P_5=b*Likes_V/(a(Exp[b*t_0]-Exp[b*r_V]))
Calculating this gives:
P_4=5.27569*10^-8
P_5=5.4846*10^-8
Which taking this as a ratio gives:
P_5/P_4=1.04
In other words according to this the numbers are about the same, which considering the fan community is probably about right. Whilst many people loved Civ IV and quite a few don't like Civ V as it stands, (or stood with this new patch) there are undoubtably some new fans out there that would make up the lost numbers. That and it's shiny and new... Also note that the probability isn't that a few in a 100 mil people like Civ, but rather that the number that was calculated was actually the number of people that will like Civ IV or Civ V per day per person.
...come to think of it that was kind of pointless... Oh well. You can find statistics to backup any point though.
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I know. I also find it strange that the game that's only been out for eight or so months hasn't caught up in "likes' to a game that's been out for six years and has two expansion packs.
Kerosene31
Prince
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The thing with Steam is you can tell how many people are playing Civ V:
http://store.steampowered.com/stats/?snr=1_5_9__10
Civ V has consistently been one of the top games on Steam since release.
Now of course we don't know how many people still play Civ IV since many play without Steam, but Civ V's numbers can't be dismissed.
Civ V has been right up there with the Call of Duty games and Football Manager. The fact that it is up there with popular games at all is pretty telling. (Even if the COD numbers are split between two games).
23,000+ players right now on a Sunday morning Eastern US time is quite a lot for a game people don't "like".
http://store.steampowered.com/stats/?snr=1_5_9__10
Civ V has consistently been one of the top games on Steam since release.
Now of course we don't know how many people still play Civ IV since many play without Steam, but Civ V's numbers can't be dismissed.
Civ V has been right up there with the Call of Duty games and Football Manager. The fact that it is up there with popular games at all is pretty telling. (Even if the COD numbers are split between two games).
23,000+ players right now on a Sunday morning Eastern US time is quite a lot for a game people don't "like".
Thank you. If nothing else this proves that Civ V is and always has been a relatively good game. It just has a way to go to be as polished as Civ IV BTS. I tried arguing this point in the past and was shot down.
Bibor
Doomsday Machine
The only thing Facebook is an indicator of is how many people crave for attention.
This is my baby. This is my baby 2.5 minutes later. This is my baby upside down. This is my baby eaten by a tiger. This is me holing my baby's gnawed leg.
gingerbill
Prince
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jesus have the haters become so bitter they're using facebook stats to bad mouth the game , hehe .
I play FPS, so I must be a stupid FPS playing dimwitted fool.From which we can conclude that Civilization IV is better. Why? Most of the people on Facebook are stupid FPS playing dimwitted fools... Or something like that.
I enjoy playing Civ4, and am at least adept at it.
Therefor... Civ4 must be for stupid FPS playing dimwitted fool.
If that's Facebook, then what is MySpace?
As was said, earlier... no it's not.
Jon the Bastard
Warlord
Kerosene31
Prince
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The Civ V haters will simply ignore the numbers.
"The game is broken..."
"DLC turns people away..."
"Nobody likes it..."
Yet right this moment (8:43 eastern US time), Civ V is #3 overall on the most played list, above both Call of Duty games and only behind the Counter Strike games.
Sorry but that is impressive that more people are playing Civ V than COD:Black Ops right now on Steam.
Not bad for a "broken" game from a "greedy" company.
http://store.steampowered.com/stats/?snr=1_4_4__10
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