French card deck names 'most dangerous' US leaders...

[Bozo Erectus]

Originally posted by Ossric
well indeed, the dollar makes the world turn but the euro is becoming an equal currency. If the US finances continues to deteriorate less people will use the dollar...

And if France and Germany continue ignoring the economic constraints within the Euro-zone, the Euro might not even be around that long. Once the Chinese finally ditch the communist nonsense, their currency will make the world go 'round.

 

[Pontiuth Pilate]

Perhaps Spain isn't part of the Third World but it can't really compete with other European nations of equal population, can it? I guess it's sort of on the fringes of the Euro economy.

 

[Yago]

Perhaps Spain isn't part of the Third World but it can't really compete with other European nations of equal population, can it? I guess it's sort of on the fringes of the Euro economy.

Well, Spain is about the same level as Iowa, so.... It isn't the biggest country, but it's not neglible. Spain isn't member of the G-8, if you mean that. I wonder what you think about Italy.

 

[Yoshimune]

Originally posted by Dumb pothead

And if France and Germany continue ignoring the economic constraints within the Euro-zone, the Euro might not even be around that long. Once the Chinese finally ditch the communist nonsense, their currency will make the world go 'round.

Only if they start revaluing the yuan. However, they won't do this, at least not yet, because doing so would crush the export advantage they have with the rest of the world (c.f. Japan, 1960-1980). Also, it would cause all their banks to crumble. It's estimated that right now the banks are only getting $0.20 on every dollar loaned. Considering the yuan is undervalued helps that figure, but if they increase its value, it would seriously hurt their economy at this stage.

Yes, they need to ditch the heavy government restraints. Although some government help is necessary to boost domestic companies against the onslaught of foreign competitiors like Wal-Mart. When they fully enter WTO and WTO rules by 2005(?), then things will get interesting, as foreign companies will have virtually free reign.

Wait... wasn't this thread about France?

 

[PantheraTigris2]

Originally posted by jack merchant


In fact, I suspect the potential for growth in the EU is at least as large as in the USA. The latest figures I could find show the EU as having an economy (as measured by GDP) that is 10% smaller than the US, even though about 90 million more people live in the EU (so about a third more than in the US) ! Most European countries could still make impressive gains by, for example, deregulation, liberalizing labour markets and education (and sooner or later, they will). It's precisely because the American economy is functioning so much better than the European one that there is room for comparatively higher growth in the EU.
And due to sheer population size, the European economy will become bigger than the American one then.

It may not happen today, it may not happen tomorrow, but eventually it will happen and your little rant here will look rather foolish.

I don't know what numbers you are refering to, but 2002's #'s show The U.S. economy growing slightly over 6 times faster than the leading Eurpoean countries (Germany, in this example of 6 times). And 2002 was not exactly a good year for the U.S., you know, (read: worst ever).

Germany, also the largest economy of Europe (France and UK are 75% of Germany's) - but still, Deutschland GDP is 1/5th of USA GDP.

Europe is lagging, compared to the US. Meanwhile China is growing quite rapidly! Nearly 10% per year!

All I'd like to say is, that I really can't put up with this forum too often. It is so far from reality - it's like everyone is drinking from the same well, and misconceptions are rampant. I also don't need insults regarding my military/ government career, from various individuals.

If you* (*addressing several people here) actually THINK that Europe's economy has 'great' potential for growth, and the EU actually trumps the U.S. economy, and is on it's way to super-powerdom, while China is just meandering along, making slow, gradual progress...

...well, OK!!

Europeans love Europe, and they want it to be powerful, influential, rich, prosperous, #1, etc. - and, they will continue to say & believe that it is (and is on it's way) to being this, regardless of the reality of the matter.

Maybe people are tired of hearing about China. I don't care. Simple fact of the matter is, that China is going to become the other super-power, in a balance with the U.S., within the next 20-25 years or so. They will be the two major economic power players in this century. Europe is not going to be able to compete at this level. It's just not possible. The EU will eventually become a puppet (of sort) to the U.S. If you want to dream/ believe otherwise, go ahead. Europeans have always had the habit of over-estimating their own potential & capablilites, and under-estimating what they are up against. This case, is one of the greatest examples.

And I have nothing against Europeans, being a descendant of them - but I just prefer not to avoid reality, as there is no advantage in it.

 

[Yago]

Maybe people are tired of hearing about China. I don't care. Simple fact of the matter is, that China is going to become the other super-power, in a balance with the U.S., within the next 20-25 years or so. They will be the two major economic power players in this century. Europe is not going to be able to compete at this level. It's just not possible. The EU will eventually become a puppet (of sort) to the U.S. If you want to dream/ believe otherwise, go ahead. Europeans have always had the habit of over-estimating their own potential & capablilites, and under-estimating what they are up against. This case, is one of the greatest examples.

Well, I agree that the east becomes the dominant factor, I do not see why "Europe" should become an "American puppet". Because the USA will grow twice as big as it is now in 30 years ? Because the US population will rise to 600 million in 30 years ?

Hm, I think there is some logical mistake your making. Somewhere, I can't pin it down. But if your point is, that US economical dominace would necessarily mean, that Europe is a puppet, what does that mean for the numbers of 1960.

And by the way, there is a little mistake in your assessment of the growth of the American economy. 2002 is not the worst year the Americans had, there was something around 1930. Something.

All I'd like to say is, that I really can't put up with this forum too often. It is so far from reality - it's like everyone is drinking from the same well, and misconceptions are rampant. I also don't need insults regarding my military/ government career, from various individuals.

Ahm, your right, everybody else is wrong, because .... your intellect is superior ?

 

[Kinniken]

Europe may have an economy smaller than the US and a lower growth rate, but honestly to predict its irrelevance in a predictable (say, 50 years) is a wild over-exaggeration. Even though our long-term growth-rate per head is lower than the US and will remain so unless more important economic reforms are made, the EU remains by far the world's second economic zone with quite a lot of potential expansion in the new members in addition.
PantheraTigris, your comparaison between the US and Germany (going though its first depression since WW2 AFAIR) is not representative - Germany was by far the worst-performing EU economy last year. Comparing the global EU rate with the US's would have shown a far smaller difference.
I don't believe that we will overtake the US economically though, mainly for demographic reasons: the US has a relatively rapidly growing population, while Europe's population growth is negligible.
However, starting with 90% of the US's GDP, it will be sometime before our economy becomes "negligible" before the US's.

Concerning China, I think you are focusing far too much on their admittedly impressive growth rate ; the main reason while China is growing so fast is because it is starting low. Their GDP is still lower than France's right now, and though it will certainly rise a lot in the coming years I doubt that it can rise that fast very long. Not to mention that a lot of economists believes it to be several points lower than announced by Chinese authorities.

As for the political implications, my personal bet is that while China will most probably grow stronger in the next fifty years, it will not become a world power comparable to the US or the USSR of old. Quite simply, keeping China together and avoiding a Russian-style meltdown while Chineses grows richer and more educated will keep them internally focused for a long time.

As for Europe, it's harder to say since it is amazingly difficult to predict how EU institutions will develop. In the best-case scenario where a common foreign policy and defense is created, the EU will definitely have quite a lot of weight in the World - though it will most likely act as a "junior partner" to the US, something I would have no problem with. In the worst case, individual EU countries will definitely see their influence to almost nothing, and Europe will just become a continent of Switzerlands - rich, peaceful and powerless.

 

[Dr. Dr. Doktor]

PantheraTigris2. One question.
If the US is so advanced how come the infrastructure is so run down? I've been there, and what I saw with my own eyes I believe more than any statistic you can hurl at me.
Fact is that consumption makes up two thirds of GDP in the US. Now that is no way to run an economy.

 

[jack merchant]

@PantheraTigris

Which source were you using ? I wasn't looking at growth but absolute sizes for my example. Growth in Europe was anemic last year (even worse than in the US), but I suspect the difference would be on the order of European growth of .2 to .3%, with 1-1.5% growth in the US. The data on the total size of the European economy came from the OECD, which shows it as being slightly less than 90% the size of the US economy.
You clearly didn't understand the logic of why the potential for growth in Europe is higher - it's a simple matter of where you start from. The lower the level you start from, the higher the relative rate of growth you can achieve. As such, Europe has higher growth potential than the US. Read any economic textbook on convergence economics to get a better explanation.
But as it is you didn't actually adress my arguments anyway.

China's growth is a different matter; economists are reckoning they need 8-10% growth a year just to keep up with population growth. Not to mention the fact that their official statistics are notoriously unreliable; it's a one-party state after all ! The numbers are what the Communist party want them to be. Plus, as others mentioned, the Chinese financial system is a disaster waiting to happen and rural poverty is widespread. They will grow, but it will require a complete move towards democracy and true market capitalism before they can become truly powerful.
Anyway, if you think that China will become huge because of its population you'd better remember that Europe has a higher population than the US too still.

Anyway, all this would make for a great discussion if you actually accept the notion that nations compete on the economic level. Really though, that's complete and utter bollocks. Interdependence is the name of the game, and growth anywhere is good for all. Even assuming that the US economy remains bigger than the European one, this doesn't mean that Europeans will somehow be reduced to penury - they're far too important as an export market for American businesses. And given the size of the European market, Americans had better learn to think of Europe as a partner instead of an adversary.

Which brings me to the reason that you drew so much fire - your dismissive and condescending attitude. Broad generalizations with not much in the way of fact to back them up won't make any friends for you here. And just because you think something is reality doesn't make it so.

 

[Mr Black]

Originally posted by Dr. Dr. Doktor
If the US is so advanced how come the infrastructure is so run down? I've been there, and what I saw with my own eyes I believe more than any statistic you can hurl at me.

What part of the country were you?

Nevertheless, I think the answer to your question is undoubtedly, TAXES!!!

 

[jack merchant]

They're not high enough ?

 

[Dr. Dr. Doktor]

Also about the Chinese economy, they do produce a hell of a lot, however they produce for satiated markets. Once the market is full the factories will come to a screeching halt. Millions and millions wil be unemployed. So beware of revolution.

 

[Dr. Dr. Doktor]

Originally posted by Mr Black


What part of the country were you?

West coast. California, Oregon and Washington. The forgotten America I call it. LA scared me.

 

[Mr Black]

Originally posted by jack merchant
They're not high enough ?

Yes, but also....

The RICH hoods (suburbs) share their wealth among themselves. The best schools, streets w/out potholes, lot's of cops on patrol.

The large cities, largely abandoned (ex. St. Louis) by the rich folks in their suburbs, are left struggling. Thus, not enough money for schools and infastructure.

Schools are NOT equally funded. WHY???, but that's another thread. Am I supposed to say something about the French Deck Card now.

 

[PantheraTigris2]

Do I really think Europe is going to be a puppet of the US? Like Vichy France was to Germany? Like the 13 colonies were to Britain? Of course not. Perhaps 'puppet' is too strong of a word. Maybe I should say "aligned closely with, and primarily influenced by..." - the EU is not going to become some vassal state. But, they will be subservient on the major economic & political issues. This Iraq scenario is just a taste of what is to come.

And by the way, there is a little mistake in your assessment of the growth of the American economy. 2002 is not the worst year the Americans had, there was something around 1930. Something.

No Sh... kidding. "Modern times" - how about that, then.

avg. annual returns on the S&P 500 from '93-'03

10.13
1.33
37.41
22.85
33.17
28.44
20.95
-9.14
-11.94
-22.05

(btw, Last 12 months = (+)11.95%)

Now, I'd like to extend you my personal thanks for nitpicking, but basically, stats from back when my grandparents were in kindergarten - don't concern me all that much. Anyway... as you can see, 2002 was not so hot.

Well, I agree that the east becomes the dominant factor, I do not see why "Europe" should become an "American puppet". Because the USA will grow twice as big as it is now in 30 years ? Because the US population will rise to 600 million in 30 years ?

Hm, I think there is some logical mistake your making. Somewhere, I can't pin it down. But if your point is, that US economical dominace would necessarily mean, that Europe is a puppet, what does that mean for the numbers of 1960.

Mistake? Always possible, but my associates and I really don't think so. And no, I'm not thinking about 1960. What really matters here? Potential for economic growth. Rate of economic growth. Base of infrastructure, manpower, & industry. Industrial capacity. Resources. Size of economy (dominate markets). Etc., etc.

Europe is no slouch. The EU is a big part of the world economy. The only thing is, that as time goes by, they are only going to decline slowly (in comparison to other parts of the world). Same thing goes for the US, but the difference is - capacity & potential. The US has much more than Europe. Money makes the world go 'round (and I hate it), but that's the way it is - and it's undeniable that the axis of economic power in the not-too-distant future will be between America, and China. Where will Europe fit in? Where do you think! They don't really have a choice. It will behoove the EU & the US to align closer, to keep the scale balanced. The EU really has to, whether they like it or not - it will happen.

But until it does, we've got a couple of decades to sit in this forum, and spit in eachother's faces. Great...

 

[PantheraTigris2]

Originally posted by Dr. Dr. Doktor
PantheraTigris2. One question.
If the US is so advanced how come the infrastructure is so run down? I've been there, and what I saw with my own eyes I believe more than any statistic you can hurl at me.
Fact is that consumption makes up two thirds of GDP in the US. Now that is no way to run an economy.

"run down"? Granted, there are some parts of the country that don't look as 'pretty' as others - but looks mean nothing. Economic & industrial output do. If something needs to be fixed, to keep it running/ functional, then it will be done. But, if it just needs a new paint job, that can wait until scheduled. We don't always have the luxury of having *everything* being high quality. But if the job/ purpose is getting done/ accomplished, then good enough. Don't tell me Germany's infrastructure is perfectly aesthetically pleasing everywhere one might go. And with a country that size, with an economy like that, I would expect certain things to be better off.

 

[Akka]

Bleh. The usual Nostradamus' predictions.

Less than one century before, Europe dominated utterly the whole world (and not just its area).

Well, two world wars came to pass, and in less than forty years, USA and USSR are the two leading powers, with Europe barely more than a potential battlefield.

And then some time pass, and in ten years, USSR goes from the alternative superpower threatening the world to a third-world country.

When I see such changes happening in such short times, let me laugh about people's predictions for the 50 next years

Oh, and in fact, Europe is actually much more powerful and influent than it was in 1965.

 

[tonberry]

Originally posted by PantheraTigris2
This Iraq scenario is just a taste of what is to come.

Like when the US has to beg money to the EU?

 

[PantheraTigris2]

Originally posted by tonberry


Like when the US has to beg money to the EU?

Like when they have no political choice but to go along with it?
Just watch what happens...

I miss talking about the French deck of cards. At least that was entertaining. Akka, I'm not predicting gloom & doom, and the fall of Europe - I'm just stating the obvious when it comes to the outlook of the world economy by the next 1/4 century. France will still be France, and all will be right in the world. Europe will have even less proportional economic (and therefore political) weight than it does today... but rest assured, it will still be there.

 

[Double Barrel]

The only problem, PantheraTigris2, is that we have exported many of our manufaturing and service industry jobs. And it seems like no end in sight for the rush to export these jobs. Pretty soon, we'll all be serving each other cheap hamburgers and selling each other cheap Chinese goods.