I agree with what others have said that fast expansion and development of cities is the way to go with Tech Trading On, relying on diplomacy to keep tech parity. I would think a general strategy of rapidly settling and developing cities while defending against opportunistic attacks by our opponents would be a good early game. With more cities we can leverage them to a tech lead, at which time we can focus on attacking. I kept all this in mind when considering what leaders I wanted.
Growth:
Is the Imperial trait better for growth than Expansive. Imperial gives a 50% bonus to Settler production (hammers * 1.5, will need 1 per settled city), while Expansive gives a 25% bonus to Worker production (hammers * 1.25, will need 1 - 1.5 per city), but Expansive leader gets half-priced granaries (hammers * 2, will need one per city including capitol). I don't know for sure, but I think cheaper workers and half-priced granaries is stronger for growth than cheaper settlers. The GG points from fighting inside our own borders is an advantage we hope to never have to take advantage of since we hope to be fighting in our opponents' territory. Add to that Expansive civs get +2
and cheaper harbors, and I'd rather go for Expansive. Please let me know if my logic is off or I'm not considering something.
For me it's between these:
Pacal II (Expansive/Financial) (Mysticism/Mining) (Holkan/Ball Court)
Mehmed II (Expansive/Organized) (Wheel/Agriculture) (Janissary/Hammam)
Suryavarayavarman II (Expansive/Creative) (Hunting/Mining) (Ballista Elephant/Baray)
Shaka (Expansive/Aggressive) (Hunting/Agriculture) (Impi/Ikhanda)
Joao II (Expansive/Imperialistic) (Fishing/Mining) (Carrack/Feitoria)
(Should I start calling him Shaka II just so he fits in?)
Mehmed II's UU comes at about the perfect time to be drafting from our grown cities and they are versatile since they get bonuses verses most troops. He has cheap courthouses and lighthouses in addition to granaries. He saves us a little money on civics (not nearly as good as Financial, but not nothing). He starts with Wheel so we can get an early Pottery for early cottages and cheap granaries.
I think Pacal II makes a strong case with his Financial trait. Expansive should help us grow early, and then Financial will kick in in all those cities. He also has an early resource-less UU for defense in case we don't have copper very near. He does allow us to play a religion first strategy. Although we might not want to start that way, at least he gives us the option.
Shaka is intriguing. He allows us to attempt an early rush, or at least to give off the threat of one to keep our neighbors honest. Aggressive is not my favorite trait, but he does come with cheap, very early mini-courthouses that provide experience to units. He starts with a scout for early exploration, which means earlier contact, meaning better chance at trade alliances.
Joao II gets cheap settlers along with cheap workers and cheap granaries. That's pretty good growth potential. His second trait doesn't help our economy though, so with Joao it's all growth.
Suryavarayavarman II has the potential for a lot of growth with cheap granaries and his UB. His UU is a little too weak in my opinion, since while the map-maker will surely give us each some kind of early strategic resource (copper/horse/iron) there's no guarantee we get an ivory resource. He does start with a scout for early exploration. His Creative trait can be pretty good trait in the early game, and they will allow us to build our cheap granaries instead of monuments in new cities.
I think the map-maker will try to put us too far apart for an early rush to have good odds, and I do there will be enough water to make navies relevant. So for that reason I will put Joao ahead of Shaka.
My Choices:
1. Mehmed II
2. Pacal II
3. Joao II