General Turn Discussion

[dutchfire]

Hereditary Rule

 

[Krill]

Cool, knew I missed something. :idiot:

 

[azzaman333]

I'd guess they don't want hunting because that will prevent them from building warriors for MP.

 

[Krill]

Here is a quick plan of how we can defend everything heading south with just one axe, so we can leave the newly built axe to defend JD, and let Zuurstoff go exploring. Only way a problem arises is if a barb moves onto the road on t76. This allows Zurr to go SE SE E and through teh looking glass.

As a side note, what are the names for the axes:

1. Defending CK
2. On the pasture
3. Being built in JD

(I'd remake the plan on a clear screenshot, if someone could find/get one with less signs on it...)

 

[Memphus]

On the pasture = Watersof or something like that.

 

[regoarrarr]

I would just take the first 3 on the elements list and name them in order 1-2-3.

 

[dutchfire]

Waterstof

 

[Memphus]

The Barbs just arn't letting up. what gives?

Ok and to the West. Do We fortify? do we move SE? (Remeber there is a barb wandering over there too)

 

[AutomatedTeller]

I was going to say "fortify" in the west. Then I realized that's a stack of TWO barb warriors.

I don't remember how strong our western scout is - woods I, at least? If not, I think we have to move SE - at least he'd have the river between him and a barb.

 

[Memphus]

he is WoodI with 1.9 strength. he would also have a 5% fort bonus.

Krill is crunching the numbers...(but i will verify since he is a chemist and i'm a computer engineer )

 

[Krill]

I think we have to move, unless I'm calculating stuff wrong (very possible, I'm not good with numbers like these). I don't think we get a bonus against barbs (after looking at the xml), which is weird, becaause that is the only way I can account for us gaining just 1XP when attacking the barbs with axes.

The only two choices that I can see are SE SE S onto the hill forest that gives us good odds of surviving or SE E and hope the barbs attack over the river. Personally I think the hill is better.

On the plus side, Zurr should move NE this turn, and hopefully he can defend the eles against both barbs to become woody2 on t73 and go off scouting.

 

[AutomatedTeller]

woods I is 20%, right?

I think that's 2 on 3.325, and he'd have to not get reduced below 1.2 to just make it even for the 2nd one - I think we have to move, too.

 

[Krill]

Now I'm not sure at all, as an online combat calculator is showing some weird results. Not sure if it is accurate though, and I don;t trust it tbh.

 

[Krill]

Using the advanced combat code that was merged into BetterAI, this is what I've been able to come up with so far

(using a warrior to attack another warrior on a forest without the fort bonus, but the defending warrior had 100 hp instead of the 95 hp Stuy has)

15.6% lose 0 rounds (next battle therefore odds are identical to first; 97% chance of winning)
23.2% lose 1 round, 89% chance of winning second battle
21.5% lose 2 rounds, 60.5% chance of winning second battle
16% lose 3 rounds, 32.5% chance of winning second battle
lose anymore on the first battle, consider it a loss.

Crap, I've forgotten how to do binomial expansion...but I think it is a little less than 60%...

TBH, if those were the odds, I think heading SE to that forest hill would be wiser. Even if there is a barb hiding in the FoW to the east, it would have to attack over a river.

 

[Love]

The other side of the river? Isn't that 40%?

 

[regoarrarr]

15.6% lose 0 rounds (next battle therefore odds are identical to first; 97% chance of winning)
23.2% lose 1 round, 89% chance of winning second battle
21.5% lose 2 rounds, 60.5% chance of winning second battle
16% lose 3 rounds, 32.5% chance of winning second battle
lose anymore on the first battle, consider it a loss.

You just multiply them out and add

So ( .156 * .97 ) + (.232*.89) + (.215*.605) + (.16*.325)

= 53.9%

Too low. Move.

 

[Krill]

25% I think; if there are two barbs in the FoW, then it's suicide, if there is one, then we just have to run away and hope Stuy can heal somewhere quiet for a shortwhile. Or we can say that the risk of there being barbs in the FoW, along with the possibility of those two barbs staying on Stuys track, is greater than forting on that tile and trying to weather the storn.

End of the day, to me, it's almost a cointoss if we were to win or lose, but I don't know the values for the barbs; something I'm still wondering about is the 1XP problem with the axes v warriors; I think the game may have gotten reset to noble due to the worldbuilder save being used, so we would get a small bonus.

 

[dutchfire]

I believe you can check all combat bonusses in the in-game combat log (control+tab IIRC)

 

[Krill]

The problem with that the combat calculator only works on attack, and to get accurate results from it you'd have to run the scenario enough times to make a statisticallly relevent sample size, because you never know where the break points are after the first combat.

After speaking with Memphus, the data used to get those numbers posted above seems accurate, so moving seems wisest.

 

[Ronnie1]

.....I think the game may have gotten reset to noble due to the worldbuilder save being used, so we would get a small bonus.

Based on the number of barbs appearing....I would say it is NOT NOBLE!