General Turn Discussion

[Memphus]

Ok so in depth:

1. Attack

I have been trying to figure out a way to do it. And we can try. Same philosophy as last turn. The problem is, this time our units are all injured. We don't have a single full unit that can attack. Therefor the logic that worked for us last turn (suicide, then get good odds on remaining units) works in the exact opposite fashion. To that extent it is if Kaz already sacraficed chariots and now are waiting to attack with thier full units.

Based on my simulations:
~5% Chance of killing all 3 units.
~5% Chance of Killing 2 units.
~5% Chance of Killing 1 units.
~10% chance of damaging all units.
Everything else...well lets just say that leaves us with 1 LB in Zero.

So we can do it...but now it is ~10 times riskier than last turn.

2. Hold Up.
This is the AT & Ronnie plan from last turn. So what do we need to do?
A. Promote All our units to best defensive positions.
B. Finish the LB in Zero this Turn.
C. Send 2 workers to Chop the PF E E of Zero, and with some tricky MM we get another LB next turn in zero (if needed)
D. Send 2 workers N of TKY for a chop next turn, that again with some fancy MM can chop out a LB next turn, thus if they advance on TKY we can hold it.


3. Go To a Golden Age.
A. Switch to PS and Vassalage (maybe slavery)
B. Do everything we do above in #2.
C. We have to take the fight to Kaz and at least burn thier front city.


So What do we choose? Realistically with the MM that we can do on this turn, we can wait 1 turn for the GA. So what does that Lose us? We don't get the HA out of CK this turn. We don't get the 2Xp on the Longbow built this turn in Zero. However since he won't make it to the next turn, he won't get the opportunity to promote.

As Such Ideally I want the Moves to Look like this:
Workers: 2 Move to the Forest E E of Zero. (red Line & Box)
Workers: 2 Move to the forest N of TKY. (red Line & Box)
Spear: Move E into TKY (Orange Line)
Longbow: Move E ontop of the Hill (yellow Line)
Chariot: Move E NE NE E to protect DT (blue Line)
Chariot: Move NW NW to cover workers from MS (Green Line) 1.2 vs 1.1 but they can't see the workers so they would of had to of declared war to enter and kill. Highly unlikely.

Waterstof (shock Axeman) Promote to CII & Shock
Achilles (Medic Axeman) Promote to ????
Goud (STR II Axeman) Promote to CII & Shock

Here is the Kicker:
Leave ZuffStof 1 N of the Ele & 2 Maces.

Anyone know why?

Spoiler :

*please excuse my ridiculous cut and paste job. I wanted everyone to see the health of our current units in Zero.

 

[AutomatedTeller]

No, I don't understand why. I assume cause he's got 2 1st strikes, so he might do some damage to an attacking unit before he dies? I don't think it's very much - if I rememher correctly, 1st strikes work just like combat, except that only the guy with more 1st strikes can cause damage. Which means that zurstoff has about a 4% chance of causing any damage if he attacks. I'd rather move him into Zero (TKY is ok, too).

Why do you want him there?

If he moves into Zero, the units there will heal 35 hp/turn (20 for the city, 15 for him), as opposed to just 30 (20 for the city, 10 for medic) - it's small, but it might make a difference.

On promotions:

Agree that waterstof goes to CII/Shock
Not sure that Goud should go to shock, though - maybe should go to formation, giving us two units that can defend some against mounted?

I like the worker moves - can we set that up so we get a cat out of zero instead of a LB?

About the GA - I'm good with getting that and switching - I think it's very likely the LB will survive - for 1, I'm not sure they will attack, but even so, an unhurt LB wins about 75% of the time vs. a CR I mace and better vs. a Combat 1 Mace or elephant. And if they don't attack, having a CG I LB will be useful.

If we do kick off a GA and switch, we get a 5 xp HA, which might be really helpful if Kaz has move cats.

 

[Memphus]

No, I don't understand why. I assume cause he's got 2 1st strikes, so he might do some damage to an attacking unit before he dies? I don't think it's very much - if I rememher correctly, 1st strikes work just like combat, except that only the guy with more 1st strikes can cause damage. Which means that zurstoff has about a 4% chance of causing any damage if he attacks. I'd rather move him into Zero (TKY is ok, too).

Why do you want him there?
.

They have 4 units they can attack with.
2 Maces
1 War Ele
1 HA.

If they Attack Zurrstof then they have only 3 units to Hit Zero with. If they don't attack him then he heals on the spot and can be a very decent sacrafice next turn when we go back on the offensive.
Also If they hit him, then they have the chance that thier other units mvoe to cover it for example:
1. HA hits it, if they don't move then a spear kills the HA next turn.
2. War Ele, see above.
3. Mace. A Bit harder for us but still doable.


And the last reason to do it? It is a little insane and will REALLY make KAZ question what to do about it. (they might think it is a trap)

If he moves into Zero, the units there will heal 35 hp/turn (20 for the city, 15 for him), as opposed to just 30 (20 for the city, 10 for medic) - it's small, but it might make a difference
.

Good Point...I have no rebuttle to this. except for the above, and Zurr doesnt heal if he moves this turn.

On promotions:

Agree that waterstof goes to CII/Shock
Not sure that Goud should go to shock, though - maybe should go to formation, giving us two units that can defend some against mounted?
.

Don't need 2 units to defend vs mounted. we have the LB which comes out at the end of the turn and that will take the Ele over the spear.

I like the worker moves - can we set that up so we get a cat out of zero instead of a LB?
.

yup we get 50 in zero next turn. (if we need it and go to a GA next turn)

About the GA - I'm good with getting that and switching - I think it's very likely the LB will survive - for 1, I'm not sure they will attack, but even so, an unhurt LB wins about 75% of the time vs. a CR I mace and better vs. a Combat 1 Mace or elephant. And if they don't attack, having a CG I LB will be useful.

If we do kick off a GA and switch, we get a 5 xp HA, which might be really helpful if Kaz has move cats.

Well the longer we put off the GA the better. And we can easily do it this turn and see what KAz do. If we need it next turn then so be it and we still get the extra XP on the unit in TKY, the second unit in Zero and the HA comming from CK.


So really the only thing left undecided is do we move zurrstof or not

 

[AutomatedTeller]

If Kaz was going to attack next turn, then Zurstoff might distract them.

I dont' see them doing that, though, not when they can wait a turn and get 2 suicide cats. I think the 2nd LB will encourage them to move their stack onto that tile to cut off reinforcements, move the mace/HA/cats stack into it's place, then attack with 2 cats and all their units next turn.

Psychologically, it may be scarier for us to do something that looks normal I mean, we've been making low odds attacks all along... now all of a sudden we are turtling?

what is the status of our trireme, btw? has it healed? Do we want to risk moving it into Kaz waters? I'd really like to know how far Phoenix Mountain is from their cap.

The maces will get the LB's. Either the HA will hit the spear and the elephant will kill an axe, or the other way around.

Or they'll wait a turn, and have more maces.

I'm convinced on waiting on the GA - for one thing, it allows us to worry Kaz that we are going to bomb them

Oh - waiting on a GA - either we should go now, or wait until we have CS. We should switch to Bureaucracy soonest, so either now and switch in 5 turns, or wait until we have CS and then kick it off and switch. Probably the latter is better.

In our GA, should we pick one of the religions in our land and switch to it, as well? Research OR to spread it?

 

[dutchfire]

I don't think they'll attack this turn, since they've got two catapults coming over next turn. I think they'll wait for those.

 

[Memphus]

Slight problem other than Kaz...

I feel like we are Saturn now

Spoiler :

So now to see what Kaz does so we can figure out how to deal with the barbs.

 

[AutomatedTeller]

The SBSF is really feeling the heat now.

 

[AutomatedTeller]

I think the barb spear near IKY can go impale himself on a LB. Worst case, Zurstoff whacks him.

The one near DT is more problematic. We aren't in slavery, right? We may need to move that LB up there

See what Kaz does...

 

[Dreylin]

Er, weren't MS supposed to be staying outside our borders now?

 

[Memphus]

they asked if they coudlheal inside.

 

[AutomatedTeller]

that works for me - as long as they stay on that side of the hills - I don't think they have LOS into TKY from there, do they?

 

[dutchfire]

with some luck, the spearman will whack them while they're healing

 

[Memphus]

No they don't (have LoS) that was part of the in game message to why it was agreed to.

That spear might hit them but they will undoubtedly move fist.

 

[AutomatedTeller]

would be funny if the spear turned toward kaz and caused them some trouble.

Could be worse - could be barb horse archers.

 

[AutomatedTeller]

good move on the pause, memphus. It would be nice if they just leave their units where they are, but less satisfying.

 

[Ronnie1]

Screens of Kaz troop movement!

 

[Krill]

Hmm.

Once more unto the breach, dear friends, once more?

Aim is to kill the kaz stack next to Zero, which is a must (they must not be allowed to cut the road). TKY is safe this turn at least, but the golden age will let us get an extra longbow both in TKY and Zero if we want. Sufficed to say I'm not worried too much.

 

[AutomatedTeller]

Absolutely.
Didn't they learn their lesson the last time?

 

[Ronnie1]

Absolutely.
Didn't they learn their lesson the last time?

Apparently not!

 

[Krill]

Well, we have 3 healthy LB, 1 CD2, 1 with 1 promo. 3 axes all with combat 2, 2 with shock, of varying health (high health though) and zuurstoff who is too damaged to do anything but has 2 free strikes so could be useful in killing <1 strength units, 2 healthy spears, 1 healthy chariot and 1 banged up chariot. Only problem is that we have to defend against barbs as well this turn.

Preliminary question: would anyone here be willing to swap our galley in MS waters for their warrior in our lands? It could be useful...