Golden Age

[Paul#42]

If everything works out right, our GA starts in #200 with the completion of Magellan's. We might also trigger it in #199 by killing a BABE unit with a Hwatch'a if we need some shields - numbers for that case in brackets ().
No need to hurry that, we won't be able to shave a turn from research nor prebuild - at least it would be a real close call. I'll mm The Treasury to have a closer look.

production
I already started a 1000s-wonder-prebuild in The Treasury, piling 4 (or 3) times 84 shields = 336 (or 252). In our GA we'll do 116 spt, so the missing 664 (or 748) shields would be in after 6 (or 7) turns, #. So ten turns from the start in any case, #206. That's already two turns late if we get computers for free (25% chance)...
So productionwise, SETI would be possible any turn from #206

We should be able to build the Internet (#209 or #214) in The Silo (46spt / 66spt in GA -> 15 turns, ETA #212), if we start next turn and I MM to max production. That would keep The Chamber and The Admirality free for other tasks.


research
Navigation isdue in #199.
GA starts #199 or #200. At 100% science we do 1166 spt before GA, 1562 spt in GA.
That's Electronics in 4 turns easily (ETA #203). I hope we got MotorizedTransport by then
Computers also in #203 (free tech) - or in 5 turns (1560 bpt), ETA #208. 4 truns would be a challenge...
So researchwise SETI is possible in #204 or #209.

Given five turn research for Miniaturization (1920bpt possible with some labs and SETI) , Internet is possible in #209 or #214.

Any comments?

edit: we might want to delay research of Electronics by a turn or two to make sure we get SABER's MotorizedTransport - and pile some money to go for Computers and Miniaturization at 100%...

 

[peter grimes]

Thanks for doing this analysis, Paul

It's good to know that some of these contingencies are being thought through

 

[donsig]

Ok, SABER said they started amphibious warfare so motorized transport is at least eight turns away. We neglected to take into account that we hold each other hostage getting into modern times. What happens if SABER holds back motorized transportation a turn or two (either intentionally or unintentionally)? Once we build Magellan's SABER will know we're in our golden age and they will figure out why.

Anyone think we should research motorized transportation ourselves? We could try telling SABER we've (unilaterally) decided to take a slightly heavier SCIAA research load and do motorized transportation - and let them research military tradition. That still leaves electronics so doesn't really help, does it? So I see why Paul suggests to delay electronics. But how does that affect our prebuilds? Are we in danger of wasting the shields because we are delayed getting to modern times?

 

[Paul#42]

I guess one or two turns to fit our prebuild is no big deal and should be taken, especially as we will need money for those 100% turns in the Modern Times.

But longer is not useful for two reasons:
1. We'd waste too much of our GA in the IA (4-7 turns) and risk our head start in the Modern Times if we have less than 12 turns of power research
2. FREE is not too far behind and could well overtake us to the Modern Times and I'd bet they also got some nice prebuilds for those yummy wonders...

 

[AutomatedTeller]

can we delay getting magellans? do we think anyone else will build it? SABER is trying to do the same thing WE want to do - which is be the one to get into MT first, to get a shot at computers.

Question - how many shields is our palace pre-build? 800 or 1000?

 

[Paul#42]

can we delay getting magellans? do we think anyone else will build it? SABER is trying to do the same thing WE want to do - which is be the one to get into MT first, to get a shot at computers.

Well, whoever researched Navigation - what could be his reason if not to build Magellan's?

Question - how many shields is our palace pre-build? 800 or 1000?

800. Good catch. We'll need another prebuild. Maybe we get the UN...

 

[peter grimes]

I hope you guys know what you're talking about here... This is really make-or-break stuff for us!

 

[AutomatedTeller]

remember - any prebuild issues we have, SABER has, too. THough I dunno if they have 5 hospitals, so they may not even have our Battlefield medicine prebuild.

Just occurred to me - we research Espionage (spies) or communism (police stations) - both of those help us.

 

[Paul#42]

We should not delay Modern Times too far. Otherwise:

1. FREE would overtake both of us and
2. Our Golden Age would be wasted getting cheap techs and waiting for SABER to go ahead.

So after Navigation we should go straight for Electronics in four (edit: five or even six rather, to pile cash for ten turns at 100% science) even if that means SABER beats us to Computers (25% chance).
If they are fair and give us computers asap, we should still be able to beat them to even more important Miniaturization.

Maybe we should talk to them about entering the Modern Times and the dilemma this means for the first of us to get his final tech...

Anybody seriously thinking about delaying Magellan's for some turns? Maybe after all it's not the no-no that I considered it to be...

 

[AutomatedTeller]

I think we should ask SABER to research motorized transport first, since we will be researching electronics in less than 8 turns.

Do we know how long navigation has been known? Is it possible someone researched it to get trade rather than the wonder?

Our GA will allow us to:

Finish off infrastructure.
Build tanks, bombers and ships for defense.
Research enough to get computers and, perhaps, miniaturization - but I suspect that we would be able to get miniaturization faster than SABER anyway.
Get us either a pile of money for rushing/upgrades/deficit research or a useful IA tech.

It's only about 25% likely that one of gets computers in MT anyway.

 

[Paul#42]

It's only about 25% likely that one of gets computers in MT anyway.

Actually it is 1-(1-0.25)^2= 43.75%, the chance that at least one of us gets computers as free tech. 6.25% that both of us get it.
Not too bad imo...

 

[AutomatedTeller]

I think it's a little less likely than that - I believe, though I'm not sure, that the free tech is partly dependent on how many turns it takes to research and computers is expensive.

I'm not sure of that, though...

 

[Paul#42]

And of course a whole term covering Murpy's law is missing in that formula...

 

[Paul#42]

Next turn (#200) our GA will start.
The wonder will be build in the middle of the build sequence. By then commerce is already calculated.
Will the GA bonus be applied in the build phase of that turn already? Or does it start with the next turn?

I'd guess the latter but does anybody know for sure?
Well, no big effect anyway as no building is scheduled to finish next turn. If courts in The Institute or The Pier will be finished, we are lucky, if they should waste too many shields we can switch to other buildings...

So many yummy buildings out there. Commercial Docks
I'll post some suggestions next turn to discuss.

 

[donsig]

There's a BABE galleon near SCI. Presumably it is on the way to begin BABE's evacuation.