Grand Strategy Thread

[Niklas]

No vote for me (yet), just a comment. If we want to beat FREE to Hoover's against their wish, then we have to beat them to ToE (without being bound by treaty to give them the free techs of course). That likely means that we must redirect them towards RP while we're doing SM, presumably by this short deal mentioned. We also need to be sure we beat them to ToE, so we need a per-turn plan to see when we can have it, if this is at all feasible.

I also don't think we should read too much into FREE's choice of tech to research. I believe CB when he says it was a spur-of-the-moment decision, he likely didn't stop to check what our proposal said at that point.

 

[peter grimes]

In an ideal world, we would stick with Free (taking advantage of General_W's PROs), and prevent them from building the Hoover Dam (mitigating one of the nastier CONs).

I'm not sure what we could offer them to make them see that Hoovers is a waste of their hammers.

The other tactic is to tell them plainly that we can't agree to a MAAPIII that gives them Hoover. But what do we give up in exchange? Gold? Claim to Babe's island?

I really don't have any clever ideas here - I'm just trying to look at the bigger negotiating picture.

 

[tomasjj]

It looks like FREE are getting confident now, as they are in the lead and doing well.
Maybe thats why they are getting more difficult to deal with.

They need to be taught a lesson sometime.

 

[General_W]

I'm not sure what we could offer them to make them see that Hoovers is a waste of their hammers.

Except that Hoover isn't a waste of hammer/shields… in fact, it won't cost them a single shield thanks to their SGL.
How do you convince a team to pass on the best wonder in C3C ("best" for games that last as long as this one will, anyway) when they can build it one turn?
I literally cannot think of any way to talk them out of it.

This is doubly true when you realize that they're better researchers than us – so our trying to compensate by taking on a heavier research load and/or giving them a bunch of gold (which amounts to the same thing either way) is totally counter-productive.

The absolutely ONLY way I can see a deal being reached is if there is something we are willing to take in exchange for not building Hoover.

What could they give us?
A 25% lighter beaker load? (about 7,000 beakers less)
A 50% lighter beaker load? (14,000 less)

We could of course ask them to build the ToE to save us some shields (but that would cost us a couple shots at our own SGL, on the flip side).

Any councilors who think we should stick with team FREE need to answer these key questions…

The Key questions:

• Are we willing to agree that that a massive beaker discount/gold infusion is a fair exchange for facing a maintenance free hydro plant in every single one of team FREE's ICS cities?
• Even if The Council were to agree that was fair – would FREE be willing to pay that heavily for something they might think is their right?
• If we start to fiercely haggle with FREE, and then the negotiations hit a wall – have we tipped our hand too much? (ie, it'll be too late to be able to switch to Saber and still beat them to Hoover.)
• Might it be better to just stall FREE for now, and switch alliances while we still have flexibility?

I tend to agree with tomasjj. FREE is too far ahead for us to effectively "manage" at this point.

 

[donsig]

I don't think we should base our decision of ally on Hoover. Allying with SABER won't necessarily mean we can deprive FREE of Hoover - FREE has the SGL after all.

If I had to vote right now from among the three options given I'd vote to stick with FREE and give them Hoover (but try to get some decent compensation for it). I think it's too early to vote though. I suggest we concentrate on a short term deal with FREE (while continuing to discuss MAAP III) and make some overtures to SABER (not only about military tradition but about a MAAP style alliance with them).

 

[AutomatedTeller]

Hoover's is nice.

It is NOT game breaking, particularly in a 5 team game like this.

They will get Hoover's.

Given what I've seen, I am thinking SABER may be a better research partner for us in the IA.

I will continue to think.

 

[General_W]

I don't think I'm basing my decision (thus far – I may still change ) just on Hoover.

I'm basing it on the fact that FREE is looking more and more like they are going to be able to sweep this game without too much trouble. Sitting by while they pick up a free hydro plant in every single one of the many, many cities in their homeland for exactly ZERO shields invested seems like a pretty big leap forward for the team already in the drivers-seat to win.

If FREE had to pay 800 shields like us to get Hoover, I would still be upset, but not quite as freaked.

I'm just worried that we're sliding into the easy mode of playing for second place as FREE's junior partner.

Yes changing ships now is scary, and has way more down-side risk than staying with FREE.
It's also increasingly looking like our only realistic shot at winning is to somehow put the breaks on the runaway train that is Team FREE.

Before I can be convinced to stick with the status-quo, I'd like to hear an answer to my "key questions" and hear a plausible scenario for how we win against Team FREE while sticking with them as their allies.


EDIT: and A.T. may very well be right – it's possible it's already too late to stop FREE from getting Hoover… but if we can force them to research there all by themselves (by beating them to ToE, which is more doable) and if we deny them the ability to trade for the other key techs in the IA they need to keep development/militarism on track – we'll make them pay a heavier price for Hoover and help to balance it out that way… which is perhaps the only way we can.
I doubt FREE will be able to trade with GONG or BABE… who must know that they'll be prime targets for an expansionist team FREE.

 

[AutomatedTeller]

Frankly, Hoover's might be a poison pill.

Everyone knows that if the team in the lead gets Hoover's, they get a huge boost to winning.

While the Lighthouse was a major threat to everyone, because it gave BABE the potential of attacking someone in isolation, Hoover's comes at a time when EVERY team can attack. And, rightly or not, people will be bored....

 

[tomasjj]

A thought - FREE has ICS, and our advantage in a Space Race is bigger cities and more production.

Hoover and its increased production is a major boost for them to close this gap.

So I can see why they crave for it....

 

[Paul#42]

FREE still has to build a factory in every of their small, corrupt 5-spt-towns to get their extra 2 spt.

A Hoover town is not doomed as a TGL-town - but certainly FREE paints a big target on themselves that way.

I'm really torn about the question whom to ally with. We should just make sure that not we are the ones of those chosen three that stands alone while SABER and FREE form an Alliance.

SABER has quite a nice position. It's almost inevitable that the strong scientific alliance is about to break.

What really makes me think is that FREE and us did not pull away from the other three the way I thought.
Maybe such a scientific alliance is not the strongest weapon in the game?
Is the pen really stronger than the sword?

 

[donsig]

FREE still has to build a factory in every of their small, corrupt 5-spt-towns to get their extra 2 spt.

...

What really makes me think is that FREE and us did not pull away from the other three the way I thought.

Perhaps they want communism to help with that corruption. I agree with tomasjj that our bigger cities and commerce boost was supposed to be our advantage over FREE's ICS. Does communism and Hoover beat us at the space race game? Or does it allow them to dominate?

We didn't pull away as much as we could have because of the BABE attack - which has turned into a phony war that still costs us much gold.

 

[zyxy]

I think it is too early to decide between SABER and FREE yet.

Some thoughts, in random order:

1. If FREE really goes after GONG, then they will have to slow down on research, and our chances look pretty good if we stick with them.
2. Kuningas is very good, but in the previous MTDG he popped in and out. If it is the same now, then Chamnix constantly at the wheel is probably more dangerous than Kuningas playing a turn here and there.
3. We said we wanted Hoover's and FREE said they wanted it too. Well, what else could we expect . Hoover's is very nice but not that great IMO. If someone offered me 7000 beakers for it, I would take the deal. I still like the idea of letting them make the division, and then we choose the share we like best. Hopefully, they will overpay.
4. I think we should write to FREE to discuss a few things:
   • Why Communism and Esp?
   • Sanitation is great, we insist on it.
   • What's up with that GONG war?
   • We cannot be talked out of Hoover with the argument that it will save us shields not to build it. (If desired, we can note we both want it and can postpone further discussion for a while, until the other matters are cleared up.)
   Sending a letter like that has the following pro's:
   • We can create a valid reason to switch to SABER, should we prefer that (at FREE: hey guys, we tried to get to an agreement with you, but you were hardheaded). This could prevent hard feelings.
   • We might learn something regarding FREE's plans.
   • It buys some time. This is a two edged sword, it buys FREE time too.
5. What keeps bugging me is that SABER approached FREE for ToG. How did they know that FREE had it, and not we? I don't think they can know that, unless FREE or we told them. But they never asked us, did they? I'm getting the impression that SABER is trying to broker deals left and right. First us, then GONG, now FREE.
6. Some sort of short deal to keep FREE close to us would be good.

All in all, I'm more inclined to try it with FREE for a while rather than switching sides.

 

[donsig]

Very nice observations zyxy. It makes sense for SABER to be looking everywhere for deals. The BABE threat put them behind in tech and they don't have a steady date like we do. Can't fault them for trying to make some deals. At least we heard about it from FREE which should ease our suspicions a bit.

We can float the idea of FREE making the division and us picking. It delays matters. We could also approach FREE with the idea that we could both agree not to build Hoovers. We could argue that the best use of their SGL for our alliance is to use it on ToE. Due to the BABE war and the (supposedly) upcoming attack on GONG we aren't as far ahead of the others as we could have been and we (as an alliance) need to do what we can to broaden the tech gap in order to safeguard ourselves and have the military superiority we need to prevent the others from winning. We could remind FREE that we're in a space race with each other.

 

[AutomatedTeller]

oh, I think that if BABE had threatened FREE, they would be well behind now.

We spent 300-400 shields on horsemen, to say nothing of the shields and population we lost burning our own towns.

SABER spent a huge amount keeping their shores clear, or they would be well ahead, too.

 

[tomasjj]

I reckon we should do what we can, while appearing nice, to slow FREE down.
Encouraging that war is one thing.
Other suggestions on a post card..

 

[peter grimes]

I posted a draft letter in the Free Embassy, but I wrote it before reading Zyxy's thoughtful post above. I think a rewrite of the letter should incorporate many of his points.

I'm not sure we should press Free on the Communism/Sanitation thing - maybe just let it go pass, and each researched the one they want (as long as it doesn't hold up the timing of other swaps).

What keeps bugging me is that SABER approached FREE for ToG. How did they know that FREE had it, and not we? I don't think they can know that, unless FREE or we told them. But they never asked us, did they?

In the past, almost every time Saber asked us for a tech deal, we had to decline because of trade restrictions involved with the MAAPs. I think it's completely to be expected that Saber is tired of asking us for things that we can't/won't give up. Naturally, they are seeking help elsewhere. I dont' think it means that they won't work with us in the future.

 

[dl123654]

I'm not too worried about FREE getting to far ahead as long as we stay somewhat near them.

A lot of things can change in the modern age during a space race , for instance their capital could just disappear . We saw how easy it was in the last game to wipe out the doughnut continent in 1 turn in the last game. If we are in a space race with Free we just need to aim for their capital (which is near the water). I'm thinking we will need 1 aircraft carrier full of bombers and a transport or two with a marine and full of tanks. I can't find a map of their island but from the minimap it looks like they have a costal city 2 squares from their capital.

Of course we will need to do our homework (read spy) on the actual numbers but if we are still strong to them by the near end of the space race I think we have a good shot. The only thing that will hinder this plan would be a lack of rubber or oil, but we could always get those from our friend FREE or even from some other nation that doesn't want FREE to win either.

 

[AutomatedTeller]

well, their capitol won't necessarily hold the apollo program, but I am reasonably sure that the world will be at war by that time - I will be shocked if we are allowed to win by space without a war and I am certain we won't allow FREE to win by space without a war.

 

[dl123654]

well, their capitol won't necessarily hold the apollo program, but I am reasonably sure that the world will be at war by that time - I will be shocked if we are allowed to win by space without a war and I am certain we won't allow FREE to win by space without a war.

But losing the capital destroys the spaceship, we don't care where Apollo is IIRC.

I agree there will most likely be a war but we just need to make sure we hit first. Having FREE out front also makes them the target for everyone else.

 

[donsig]

Yeah, I also thought destroying the capitol destroys the spaceship. Am I having a flashback to Civ II?