General_W
Councilor & Merlot Noble
well, sure... but it gets even better if we can deny them the ToE.
Grand Strategy Thread
- Thread starter General_W
- Start date
To be clear: I never proposed attacking Free. I only proposed declaring war on them 
By declaring War on Free, they would be forced to divert resources to defense - which they have had the luxury of avoiding so far. They are the only scientific civ that has yet to build a substantial military.
I don't think attacking them would be smart - I subscribe to the Powell doctrine: Attack all at once with overwhelming force. The Council and Saber have nothing to gain by stalling scientific research so as to build up an overwhelming invasion force.
Like Niklas says, if Saber and The Council are researching in pairs along the tech tree, we will advance to the MA much faster than Free alone can.
As to the Great General's proposition - I don't think it's likely to work. Anyone who reads the turn-tracker knows that Wotan is not up for mounting even a secondary, let alone tertiary!, invasion.
But the idea of asking them to help us cover some research costs to speed us to Rp isn't bad
By declaring War on Free, they would be forced to divert resources to defense - which they have had the luxury of avoiding so far. They are the only scientific civ that has yet to build a substantial military.
I don't think attacking them would be smart - I subscribe to the Powell doctrine: Attack all at once with overwhelming force. The Council and Saber have nothing to gain by stalling scientific research so as to build up an overwhelming invasion force.
Like Niklas says, if Saber and The Council are researching in pairs along the tech tree, we will advance to the MA much faster than Free alone can.
As to the Great General's proposition - I don't think it's likely to work. Anyone who reads the turn-tracker knows that Wotan is not up for mounting even a secondary, let alone tertiary!, invasion.
But the idea of asking them to help us cover some research costs to speed us to Rp isn't bad
I think it might already help if we had a BABE galley block our "only" harbor to cut the trade route and deny them our luxury... 
Of course it would also hurt ourselves...
Can we find out whether they have different luxury trades going? I wouldn't be surprised if they also traded with GONG and BABE...
Maybe an embassy is in order. We should have made one when times were easy to be less suspicious when we want to inspect towns...
Of course it would also hurt ourselves...
Can we find out whether they have different luxury trades going? I wouldn't be surprised if they also traded with GONG and BABE...
Maybe an embassy is in order. We should have made one when times were easy to be less suspicious when we want to inspect towns...
Unless I'm wrong, if they have already founded an embassy then we won't be given the screenshot of their capital.
Can you investigate the capital after an embassy if founded?
I'm all for investigating.
Can you investigate the capital after an embassy if founded?
I'm all for investigating.
You can investigate any town (in peace) after you established an embassy.
IIRC you don't get a message if someone establishes an embassy in your capital, you only see the rivals capital on the map - but we already have FREE's map and they have ours, so no obvious hint as it was when GONG established an embassy in The Chamber. Only chance to be caught is if our capital is below size 11 on their latest map - but we could still have added some workers...
Am I right that you don't get a message as you do in single player games?
They could of course find out because they suddenly have more options in the diplomacy and "investigation" screens.
Might take them some time to find that out.
IIRC you don't get a message if someone establishes an embassy in your capital, you only see the rivals capital on the map - but we already have FREE's map and they have ours, so no obvious hint as it was when GONG established an embassy in The Chamber. Only chance to be caught is if our capital is below size 11 on their latest map - but we could still have added some workers...
Am I right that you don't get a message as you do in single player games?
They could of course find out because they suddenly have more options in the diplomacy and "investigation" screens.
Might take them some time to find that out.
donsig
Low level intermediary
To be clear: I never proposed attacking Free. I only proposed declaring war on them
By declaring War on Free, they would be forced to divert resources to defense - which they have had the luxury of avoiding so far. They are the only scientific civ that has yet to build a substantial military.
I don't think attacking them would be smart - I subscribe to the Powell doctrine: Attack all at once with overwhelming force. The Council and Saber have nothing to gain by stalling scientific research so as to build up an overwhelming invasion force.
Since FREE hasn't built much military what we'd need to be overwhelming is that much less. Add on to that the fact that we'd have SABER helping means each of us would have that much less to contribute. We're considering investing 1000g and 600 shields into ToE (and then even more for Hoover). How much more would we have to invest to get up a reasonable attack force? A real war on FREE also opens other possibilities. We could approach BABE and GONG and see if they want to join the fun. That would mean even less of an investment on our part and may allow us to make peace with BABE and get education into their hands.
So the question becomes, do we need to slow down FREE? IF GONG is on track for 100k in ~80 turns and we think FREE would be able to launch some turns before that, are we now thinking that we could beat both FREE and SABER in launching a ship? Can we realistically hope to launch in, say, 70 turns? We have 14 techs still in the IA (this includes military tradition, sanitation and amphibious warfare). We split with SABER that's 7 each. Minimum research times are 4 turns each so there's 28 turns. Another 12 techs in the modern era. Say we go it alone then that's 48 turns more. There's 76 turns at minimum research times - which I doubt we are capable of right now. It looks like we need a tech partner for part of the modern age. Then of course we would end up racing SABER into space without having much of a tech lead once we do set off on our own.
It looks like this one will be won by military. At least decided.
Do we invest into cavalry before tanks?
I think if you say Marines, that's not too far from tanks, either. Cavs won't be lasting long in this game - a few will be handy to kill weak units and make long range attacks.
We'd rather get to the other MT (Motorized Transportation
) quickly, keep / get unit support low and have factories and prebuilds (in smaller towns) available... 
Along with RP we should trade some workers with SABER to lower unit support.
When will SABER announce their direction?
Do we invest into cavalry before tanks?
I think if you say Marines, that's not too far from tanks, either. Cavs won't be lasting long in this game - a few will be handy to kill weak units and make long range attacks.
We'd rather get to the other MT (Motorized Transportation
) quickly, keep / get unit support low and have factories and prebuilds (in smaller towns) available... Along with RP we should trade some workers with SABER to lower unit support.
When will SABER announce their direction?
This is the final turn from the previous mtdg for reference: -
Sweet memories for certain Councilors
The above relies on the fact that most tiles are railed and interior towns have light or no defense, can we expect a similar situation should we go on the offensive?
At the very least some lessons to be learned for our own defenses, barricades can be bombed away, would a ring of forests 3 tiles from the coast and in between coastal cities prevent something like the above?
Sweet memories for certain Councilors
The above relies on the fact that most tiles are railed and interior towns have light or no defense, can we expect a similar situation should we go on the offensive?
At the very least some lessons to be learned for our own defenses, barricades can be bombed away, would a ring of forests 3 tiles from the coast and in between coastal cities prevent something like the above?
I had already forgotton how ugly that was (I read it when we started here). No matter whether you win or lose, war like that is ugly. I'll never get used to modern warfare. Swords and Maces, that is a nice fight. Not this high tech stuff...
I hope there are other turnplayers available when we get that far...
One of the keys to that victory was that the other Teams apparently weren't expecting the assault to be done with such speed. I remember going back over KISS's thread once the game was over. The disconnect between their thinking and MIA's was astounding:
After KISS lost two border towns, they were imagining a counter-attack 7 or 8 turns down the line. But MIS had something like 60 workers to lay track for the cavalry. KISS was expelled from the shared continent in 2 turns. They never really saw it coming.
When MIA invaded DNUT, the barricades did indeed present a problem. But that was short lived.
After KISS lost two border towns, they were imagining a counter-attack 7 or 8 turns down the line. But MIS had something like 60 workers to lay track for the cavalry. KISS was expelled from the shared continent in 2 turns. They never really saw it coming.
When MIA invaded DNUT, the barricades did indeed present a problem. But that was short lived.
donsig
Low level intermediary
Interesting lessons. The question of course is what do we learn from history. There are certainly tactical lessons to be learned from the last turn of the last game but good tactics can't really overcome a poor strategy.
Looking at the overall strategic picture from last game: The last post in that thread speculated that DNuts lost when TNT attacked them. I doubt that. One of our warriors stumbled on a worker and we took it. That put us next to an undefended city which they razed. Not much happened after that until they snuck around and burned one of our cities ending the war. TNT had no war plan in place, not much participation and very little knowledge of what is capable in a Civ III game. The ill advised and poorly run TNT DNuts war left TNT weak and demoralized and ripe for conquest by KISS. It's kinda ironic that this conquest subsequently left KISS open to the MIA blitz.
Lessons I take from that aspect are:
IMO we need a serious estimate of GONG's culture threat and FREE's spaceship threat. I'm out of my league in calculating this stuff. I assume we're getting the ~80 turn estimate from a Civ tool similar to Civ Assist? I don't use these things when I play so I have no idea what info they provide. I'm not sure if this estimate takes into account the culture doubling of 1000 year old buildings.
We also need an estimate of when FREE could launch. If they aren't interested in sanitation then perhaps they have reached a plateau of bpt which can now only be increased by city improvements and wonders. Wouldn't the growth of their score tell us if they've reached their population limit? (Likewise with GONG since they probably also want many small cities for more culture buildings.)
As for BABE, we must assume they are planning a GLET to help GONG.
We also need some estimates of our shield, beaker and gold production capabilities for the next 80 turns. Likewise for SABER, who might be willing to help us with the GONG and FREE estimates we need.
Specific thoughts so far:
Looking at the overall strategic picture from last game: The last post in that thread speculated that DNuts lost when TNT attacked them. I doubt that. One of our warriors stumbled on a worker and we took it. That put us next to an undefended city which they razed. Not much happened after that until they snuck around and burned one of our cities ending the war. TNT had no war plan in place, not much participation and very little knowledge of what is capable in a Civ III game. The ill advised and poorly run TNT DNuts war left TNT weak and demoralized and ripe for conquest by KISS. It's kinda ironic that this conquest subsequently left KISS open to the MIA blitz.
Lessons I take from that aspect are:
- only attack when necessary
- have a specific goal
- prepare well to meet that goal before the war
- know the capabilities of your foe
- raw power wins a civ game
IMO we need a serious estimate of GONG's culture threat and FREE's spaceship threat. I'm out of my league in calculating this stuff. I assume we're getting the ~80 turn estimate from a Civ tool similar to Civ Assist? I don't use these things when I play so I have no idea what info they provide. I'm not sure if this estimate takes into account the culture doubling of 1000 year old buildings.
We also need an estimate of when FREE could launch. If they aren't interested in sanitation then perhaps they have reached a plateau of bpt which can now only be increased by city improvements and wonders. Wouldn't the growth of their score tell us if they've reached their population limit? (Likewise with GONG since they probably also want many small cities for more culture buildings.)
As for BABE, we must assume they are planning a GLET to help GONG.
We also need some estimates of our shield, beaker and gold production capabilities for the next 80 turns. Likewise for SABER, who might be willing to help us with the GONG and FREE estimates we need.
Specific thoughts so far:
- Biggest threat of GLET is giving GONG stronger defenses
- If we can launch before GONG gets to 100k we need not worry about them
- If we can launch before FREE we need not destroy their capitol
- Slowing donw FREE's research seems important - collapsing their republic might help
donsig
Low level intermediary
I went back through the old saves and gleans GONG's culture totals. I don't have all the turns and so I used averages where there was more than one turn difference. Missing turns are: 131, 132, 134, 136, 138, 139, 141, 142, 144, 146, 148, and 149. I can go back and get these figures if anyone thinks they would be useful. We met GONG on turn 119 and so have no figures before that. If older figures would help we could ask around to see if SABER or FREE met GONG earlier and can get the figures. The figures are taken directly form the victory (F8) screen. I also have these in an Excel file. I can attach it if anyone thinks it would be useful.
Turn 161 status:
Assuming GONG maintains a 10 culture point acceleration they'd reach 100k on turn 258, 97 turns away. As their culture producing buildings age (and double their culture output) their acceleration will increase.
Turn 161 status:
- 13,864 culture points
- gained 411 culture points over turn 160
- gain increased by 10 culture points over turn 160 gain
Assuming GONG maintains a 10 culture point acceleration they'd reach 100k on turn 258, 97 turns away. As their culture producing buildings age (and double their culture output) their acceleration will increase.
Spoiler :
I wonder why they had a drop of acceleration between 140 and 143.
Too little for anarchy and they were already in Feudalism in 134 (when?).
Why do you lose culture in a 100k attempt? Did they raze / move a town?
400cpt after 160 turns and especially 200cpt after 120 (170 BC) turns is not too impressive.
The 80 turns guess was completely estimated by me and just based on the recent development of their culture and its first two derivations
CA2 does only support 20k, I don't know any tool that does 100k for you.
Good to know that there are no huge jumps in their accelaration so there won't be any huge jumps in culture doubling after 1000 years either.
Good analysis. I don't feel threatened.
Too little for anarchy and they were already in Feudalism in 134 (when?).
Why do you lose culture in a 100k attempt? Did they raze / move a town?
400cpt after 160 turns and especially 200cpt after 120 (170 BC) turns is not too impressive.
The 80 turns guess was completely estimated by me and just based on the recent development of their culture and its first two derivations
CA2 does only support 20k, I don't know any tool that does 100k for you.
Good to know that there are no huge jumps in their accelaration so there won't be any huge jumps in culture doubling after 1000 years either.
Good analysis. I don't feel threatened.
donsig
Low level intermediary
GONG is up to 14,279 culture points. That's a 415 point gain over last turn, a 15 point acceleration. My estimate above didn't account for accelerated acceleration. (This all reminds me of calculus for some reason.) I also grabbed the remaining turns and hope to update my estimate later.
So the GLET is gone.
We have all civs almost at tech par, the fun may begin - maybe even team BABE finds motivation again?
Now how does that effect our strategy?
BABEs can travel the oceans.
1. We need to make our early warning system water-proof. We might need some more ships to do so.
2. We need to prompt every vessel in one turn's moving range to get out of our waters. We need to block any tile in range of more than a single ferry.
3. We need to press on trading workers in five turns to lower our upkeep costs and research more quickly to gain back our advantage!
We have all civs almost at tech par, the fun may begin - maybe even team BABE finds motivation again?
Now how does that effect our strategy?
BABEs can travel the oceans.
1. We need to make our early warning system water-proof. We might need some more ships to do so.
2. We need to prompt every vessel in one turn's moving range to get out of our waters. We need to block any tile in range of more than a single ferry.
3. We need to press on trading workers in five turns to lower our upkeep costs and research more quickly to gain back our advantage!
donsig
Low level intermediary
If they invade we can just play our turns after a week's delay - maybe they'll get bored and quit.
It's good that they did this so fast. I'm not so sure they get a whole heck of a lot. Could it be they just wanted rifles in an effort to make GONG more invasion proof so they can continue unmolested towards their cultural victory? If they had waited a bit they might have gotten infantry.
Now that the cat is out of the bag we can use this to form the Brains versus Braun alliance - something we might be able to do even if we do beat FREE to ToE and Hoover.
I agree - we demand GONG ships within our borders leave, perfect our EWS, continue building our defensive rail network - and maybe take it easy on drafting for rushes for now. The worker trade is very important now. It is also quite important to find out where the rubber and oil are. Mounting an invasion will be tough if we lack one of those.
It's good that they did this so fast. I'm not so sure they get a whole heck of a lot. Could it be they just wanted rifles in an effort to make GONG more invasion proof so they can continue unmolested towards their cultural victory? If they had waited a bit they might have gotten infantry.
Now that the cat is out of the bag we can use this to form the Brains versus Braun alliance - something we might be able to do even if we do beat FREE to ToE and Hoover.
I agree - we demand GONG ships within our borders leave, perfect our EWS, continue building our defensive rail network - and maybe take it easy on drafting for rushes for now. The worker trade is very important now. It is also quite important to find out where the rubber and oil are. Mounting an invasion will be tough if we lack one of those.
General_W
Councilor & Merlot Noble
I'll start work on a letter to GONG, and post it when I'm done.
Today is going to be a hectic-busy day for me… so I'll probably be a bit spotty around here I'm afraid.
I'm opposed to a Brain-v-Braun alliance.
The GLET doesn't fundamentally change our strategy, imo.
Yes, GONG and BABE have caught back up in technology and will now be harder to kill… but FREE remains the more immediate threat to win this game. GONG/BABE can only pull a GLET once… they will now start to fall behind again.
If FREE can keep a research partner (or partners) no one will ever be able to catch them.
Today is going to be a hectic-busy day for me… so I'll probably be a bit spotty around here I'm afraid.
I'm opposed to a Brain-v-Braun alliance.
The GLET doesn't fundamentally change our strategy, imo.
Yes, GONG and BABE have caught back up in technology and will now be harder to kill… but FREE remains the more immediate threat to win this game. GONG/BABE can only pull a GLET once… they will now start to fall behind again.
If FREE can keep a research partner (or partners) no one will ever be able to catch them.
donsig
Low level intermediary
Well, General, if we can entice FREE to attack GONG, wouldn't that slow FREE down? Then there's the fact that there's no such thing as a FREE launch if GONG gets to 100k first. I'm still not clear on who is winning that race - except for the fact that we don't seem to be in the running.
There seems to develop a resistance against FREE.
With Modern Warfare ahead, this game might take quick and sudden changes of direction. How can we asure best our victory? Staying in the shadow or marching ahead?
With Amphibous War and Flight in sight (some twenty turns), we might want to make up our minds about possible alliances to catch the runaway FREE.
Which role do we want to play in this game?
More actively, invading FREE's mainland with Marines, bombers, cavs and tanks?
More supporting but still officially declaring war, providing naval and airborne support for our allies' units?
Or just passively, staying at peace but supporting invaders by money, techs and trade embargo against FREE?
Any other forms of participation?
If we try to get high research pace, we will likely not amass gold to rush / upgrade units for a quick strike. Depending on our SCIAA, SABER might or might not have the same problem.
Will we support a third or fourth party to join the case at the risk of making them too powerful?
With Modern Warfare ahead, this game might take quick and sudden changes of direction. How can we asure best our victory? Staying in the shadow or marching ahead?
With Amphibous War and Flight in sight (some twenty turns), we might want to make up our minds about possible alliances to catch the runaway FREE.
Which role do we want to play in this game?
More actively, invading FREE's mainland with Marines, bombers, cavs and tanks?
More supporting but still officially declaring war, providing naval and airborne support for our allies' units?
Or just passively, staying at peace but supporting invaders by money, techs and trade embargo against FREE?
Any other forms of participation?
If we try to get high research pace, we will likely not amass gold to rush / upgrade units for a quick strike. Depending on our SCIAA, SABER might or might not have the same problem.
Will we support a third or fourth party to join the case at the risk of making them too powerful?
Right now I'd favor a supporting or passive role.
If we could direct BABE's and GONG's idle forces against FREE, that might bring an instant success even before we discover modern warfare technologies.
FREE's coasts are (were) unguarded - at least not blocked, so maybe these two can invade there without marines while SABER and we can keep research up at high pace.
Obvious Precondition for such a step would be peace for BABE with us and SABER. I think that should be our next step.
Then we should encourage BABE to attack FREE by ensuring our neutrality / support for a given time frame.
That would free forces that currently are bound blocking BABE's shores.
If we could direct BABE's and GONG's idle forces against FREE, that might bring an instant success even before we discover modern warfare technologies.
FREE's coasts are (were) unguarded - at least not blocked, so maybe these two can invade there without marines while SABER and we can keep research up at high pace.
Obvious Precondition for such a step would be peace for BABE with us and SABER. I think that should be our next step.
Then we should encourage BABE to attack FREE by ensuring our neutrality / support for a given time frame.
That would free forces that currently are bound blocking BABE's shores.
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