Grand Strategy Thread

FREE is now worried about the Spybrary Elevator ploy between BABE and GONG. We've realized this threat for some time now. Everyone has education except for BABE so they are the only one's who can pull off a Spybrary elevator. They can do this in one of two ways:

1) They make a deal with GONG whereby GONG gifts them the Spybrary and they both share the spoils.

2) They capture the Spybrary. This could be done by themselves or in conjunction with SABER as an ally. BABE would share the spoils with SABER. In this scenario SABER supplies military might to help with the capturing of the Spybrary.

Apparently there is no limit on when this can be done so long as BABE avoids education. As long as this threat exists it hinders MAAP II and the movement of both The Council and FREE into the next age. If we complete MAAP II before BABE gets education we risk technological parity with BABE or with BABE/GONG or BABE/SABER.

So we need an analysis of the likelihood of the elevator ploy being used. I will leave that to others to contribute while I focus here on what we and FREE can do proactively.

We can continue the research aspect of MAAP II without sharing the techs. We can continue our war with BABE, trying to reclaim SCI, and then offer peace to BABE along with education. I think we should not make peace with BABE unless they accecpt education as part of the deal (unless of course they acquire it some other way which makes this whole discussion moot).

If we finish the research part of MAAP II and BABE still does not have education the we (both FREE and The Council) can shut off research and prepare an invasion force to destroy the Spybrary once and for all. In this scenario we'd be the agent of destruction with FREE bankrolling us. This is a situation where we might also entice SABER to join us, though we would also risk SABER's wrath if we take down their main ally. This plan would also allow us to eliminate the possibility of Gong's 100k. :)

Another scenario envisions invading BABEland. Again, after the research part of MAAP II is completed we (FREE and The Council) shut off research. We build an invasion force financed by FREE. We press the attack until BABE is eliminated or accepts/gets education. In this scenraio we might be able to gain support from both SABER and GONG ala a dogpile strategy. This allows SABER and GONG to remain friends and addresses the threat of BABE capturing the Spybrary on it's own.

The bottom line is that as long as BABE does not have education we live with the threat of the Spybrary elevator. We need not take immediate action (as long as we don't share techs with FREE) though in the end war is the only way to eliminate this treat (unless of course BABE gets education).
 
I agree with Donsig - we should try to consolidate the discussion on dealing with the GreatLibraryElevatorThreat (GLET ?) here – so it's not spread out among the various embassies.

Here's my summary of the issue…
If BABE wants to participate in a GLET, there's nothing we can offer them to stop it. If they're planning a GLET, they will never accept Education for any reason. If they're not planning a GLET, then there's no reason to help them get an extra tech.

If GONG wants to participate in a GLET, there's nothing we can offer them to stop it. They will have already considered the cultural ramification – and like zyxy said – will conclude that it's +/- 1% … ie, not enough to matter. They will also be counting on the ability to stockpile gold for rush-building cultural improvements instead of researching… it starts to look like a pretty good deal!

If BABE is planning a GLET, but GONG isn't agreeing for some foolish reason, then BABE will most certainly be planning an invasion of GONG. Trying to warn GONG seems foolish to me, since a GLET is so clearly in GONG's favor – if anything we'd be forcing them to reconsider their foolishness in not agreeing to a peaceful GLET, and would probably just turn them right back into their Alliance with BABE. Basically, we'd be helping BABE out. If GONG is just being stubborn and foolish with BABE (such that they would refuse a GLET even under threat of invasion) – then that foolishness will hopefully extended to burning the Great Library before BABE could capture it.

Bottom line, here's the problem as I see it: If BABE and GONG want to execute a GLET, the absolutely only way to stop them is to capture the Great Library ourselves.

If we want to be sure that GLET won't happen – FREE needs to be pressed to focus all their might into assembling an invasion fleet to capture and burn the Great Library.
We can't do it, as we're too busy defending our shores.

I'd say, either A) FREE attacks GONG, or B) we just go into the default mode of praying our enemies aren't paying that much attention and will just miss their GLET opportunity.
I see no other good options.
 
Hmm..a thought just popped into my shallow mind - did Free's turnplayer attempt to call Babe out on the GLET issue by offering Education?

Accepting Edu, even if it was sent by mistake (I am not sure the surly Babes would emphasize with Free if it was a mistake, and therefore decline...) could show that they have no plans to go for GLET.
Refusing could be an indication that something is brewing....

It might just be a random thought, but I just wanted to share.
 
Yes - FREE offered Edu to BABE, and BABE declined.
 
If they're not planning a GLET, then there's no reason to help them get an extra tech.

Well, if FREE is hesitant to trade techs for fear of GLET then giving education to BABE is a good enough reason for me. Just being able to forge ahead knowing GLET is no longer an option for anyone is also worth it.

I do think it's a good idea to prep FREE with the idea of them capturing the Spybrary.
 
However it's still possible that FREE forgot to send with accept... :crazyeye:

Anyway, they are concerned, too, that might help convincing them to do something in that case. :thumbsup:

First, some FREE Pirates might help to recon GONG's early warning system (and this should not happen right before the attack :mischief: )
Than a small invasion force should be assembled.
Depending on our progress with BABE we might well take part in it because we already own the force and nobody else would be suspicious that we grow stronger (as GONG might see when FREE grows).

It would also help to know how the weak (to us) FREE and GONG compare to each other.

Let's prompt FREE with our basic idea and see how it develops. :agree:
 
However it's still possible that FREE forgot to send with accept... :crazyeye:

True. :rolleyes:

Anyway, they are concerned, too, that might help convincing them to do something in that case. :thumbsup:

Good thinking Paul! I like the privateer idea. I was also thinking we'd be able to lend a hand in the invasion since we already have some forces. That of course all depends on the status of the BABE war.

I also agree we should write to FREE and propose these ideas. Maybe not all at once but we should at least get the ball rolling.
 
In the delay between saves here, I thought a little game-theory strategic exercise might be helpful for our team.

As we look to rebuild our long-term strategy when we (hopefully soon) emerge from the shadow of invasion by BABE – a key to making our long-term strategy work is going to be thwarting every other team's strategy.

Basically, if we want to win a space race – we have to stop anyone else from winning the game first.
For the time being let's try not to get TOO distracted on what our strategy is - rather I think it'd be helpful to focus just for a bit on what we would do if we were in the other's teams shoes… and then what we can do to thwart that.

Here's my very skeletal outline – intentionally vague so I don't overly bias other perspectives. I'm just posting this to help get the conversation started.

Team FREE
  • Victory Method: Space Race
  • Strategic Plan: ICS continent, ramp up an unstoppable economic advantage.
  • Achilles Heel: Relatively low population/production cities will be slow spaceship part builders


Team BABE
  • Victory Method: Conquest
  • Strategic Plan: Be a pain in the neck, hope to get lucky – maybe with a GLET gambit.
  • Achilles Heel: Plan is already in tatters, dubious if they can pull off a GLET or if they've even thought of it. If they do pull of a GLET – they will still just fall behind in the Industrial era.


Team GONG
  • Victory Method: Culture
  • Strategic Plan: Build a fortress island, max out culture.
  • Achilles Heel: Vulnerable to a technologically superior military invasion force.


Team SABER
  • Victory Method: Domination (?)
  • Strategic Plan: Use Siphai to conquer someone (BABE?) and leverage the extra continent into conquest of a 3rd continent and then win however they want.
  • Achilles Heel: Vulnerable to a 3-way alliance of the survivors

I have the most strategic uncertaintiy about what Saber might be planning – so by all means, please weigh in with what you think the other teams are planning, how they plan to get there, and any ideas you have on how we can stop them.

Let the grand speculation and analysis begin! :D
 
Is this about the Diplomacy game or the Council pbem? Or is it the Death match? :confused:

Is there some other game I've forgotten about? :old:

Or have you been drinking too much :beer: General?

A strong navy seems to be the key to stopping the two military strategies (BABE and SABER) and also helps pave the way for the invasion that stops GONG. I know you said not to focus on our strategy but I think you've pretty much nailed our opponents General. FREE has already come out and said they are going for a space race. GONG's strategy seems obvious and they also seem to be in the defense building part of the strategy now. BABE has no fire left. SABER is behind but can probably still get their UU in time to demolish BABE (who doesn't really seem to care anyway). IF SABER takes out BABE then we (the Council & FREE) will probably be more than happy to watch SABER attack GONG because we'll need GONG taken down anyway. Our only hope in this scenario is to stick with FREE and try to be way ahead of SABER techwise while they are attacking BABE.
 
Oh, yes. The good ol' game... :coffee:

Team FREE
  • Achilles Heel: Relatively low population/production cities will be slow spaceship part builders
low production can be countered with good prebuilding.
Of course they might fail on that, too... :p
I rather see their Heel in lack of scientific wonders - we should out-research them in the late game. I guess after a share of the Modern Times free techs it will be a race between us - if none of us is crippled by warfare.
Maybe we even part with them over a cheat on the free tech exchange or the division of the valuable MT science wonders. :hmm:
Team BABE
  • Achilles Heel: Plan is already in tatters, dubious if they can pull off a GLET or if they've even thought of it. If they do pull of a GLET – they will still just fall behind in the Industrial era.
I don't see their plan already failed - it's over when we are two turns into FA (frigate age). :old:
They just finished twenty turns of Golden Age - I just don't think they produced thin air during that span. :shifty:
But maybe they rather visit FREE or GONG with a nice surprise... :D

I agree with the rest of your analysis :thumbsup:
 
Maybe we should move the talk of WHO we should be allied with over here to the Grand Strategy thread?

Here's my quick-and-dirty analysis of our choice:

Stick with FREE
  1. PRO: No strong Unique Unit to help them in warmongering, making wars more costly for them, and therefore easier for us to beat.
  2. PRO: ICS city strategy will hurt a space-race win attempt by them, making them easier for us to beat.
  3. PRO: They are the strongest researcher in the world, making them a strong ally to help us stay ahead of the other teams.
  4. CON: They are the strongest researcher in the world, making them a huge threat – as they could potentially try to leave us behind (or straight-out attack us) in the Modern Age.
  5. CON: Their dominant position (about 337 points ahead of us, 61 points ahead of 2nd place GONG) makes them a huge threat to making rapid military gains – then leveraging their new territory into an even larger lead. (Either by specialist farms, or by a communist government)
  6. CON: They are committed to getting Hoover Dam – and with an SGL to make that possible with ZERO shield investment – they will only be getting stronger than they are already. Getting Hoover without investing a single shield is a potentially game-altering change in FREE's favor. It's hard to see how we could balance this huge advantage with any MAAP III arrangement.
  7. CON: Kuningas has been taking a more active role in FREE lately – and he's one of the very few players I know that can scare Chamnix. Anyone that can scare Chamnix worries me greatly. :scared:



Switch to SABER
  1. PRO: Saber is much closer to us in power & score (They're currently in 4th place) and is therefore less of a threat to run away with the game.
  2. PRO: Saber is near desperate for an ally, and would likely agree to very favorable terms to lock us into alliance. This almost certainly would include a deal to give us Hoover Dam and prevent FREE from getting it…. IF we can manage to beat FREE to actually building Hoover, that is.
  3. PRO: Switching sides to Saber will help put the brakes on what's starting to look like a run-away victory for team FREE.
  4. CON: Saber might be able to use their powerful Siphai units (combined with a solid supporting ally) to go on a conquest spree and leverage that into an unstoppable advantage.
  5. CON: Dumping FREE in favor of Saber might provoke FREE to attack us? (I think this can be mitigated somewhat by trying to keep some kind of deals going with FREE… and by our threat of Hwacha with rails.)
  6. CON: Chamnix is one of the best Civ3 players I know – and you can be sure he'll maximize any advantage his team can get.


I'm sure I'm missing some points.
Please discuss!
The sooner we can settle this, the sooner we can discuss the tactics of how to implement our choice. (Either how to mitigate the fallout with FREE, or how to balance a MAAP III agreement with them so that it's satisfactory)

In truth – I'm drifting more towards being in favor of making a switch in alliance to team Saber… and trying to distract FREE with something like "well, let's not agree to a full MAAP III at this stage, let's just sign a peace deal and agreement for the next 3-4 techs." And then send them down the communism espionage path in exchange for anything OTHER than Electricity or Scientific method (to keep them away from ToE and Hoover).

But I'm open to being persuaded to stick with them!
 
One problem with dumping FREE for SABER is a COUNCIL / SABER alliance would have NO eleven tile islands - and whatever resources are hidden there. With BABE languishing (and wanting only to help GONG) and FREE having two of these small islands I don't see much happening for us and SABER. Imagine we have to fight for both coal and oil. :(
 
Good point about the 11-tile islands. :sad:

Personally, I can NOT imagine that Rik would have put all the coal on the small islands. He obviously knew about the possibility for coastal blocking (from his comments in the UN) - and it would be too game-breaking to prevent a team from getting any coal. Ditto rubber (as it's necessary for marines). I wouldn't be supprised to find all the Oil or Uranium on those islands... but by then, we can take one by force if needed.

This is a very valid point... but alone it doesn't quite sway me back to FREE's side.
 
We should wait and see what FREE's bonus tech is before making any big decisions. We don't necessarily need MAAP III to stay on friendly terms with FREE. We can forego MAAP III for now and make a short deal with FREE. This can even be done while keeping the idea of MAAP III alive. A short initial tech deal would also allow us to deal with SABER (at least short term) without cutting FREE in on any deal. We should keep in mind that SABER will get a bonus tech as well. Perhaps it is good that FREE doesn't really like our MAAP III proposal. We can use the incomplete MAAP III negotiations as an excuse to propose a shorter deal while we haggle. I don't have much idea what the short deal would be - again, we need to know FREE's bonus tech.
 
Well, we know it now. It's Steam Power.

We might also agree on shorter terms.
I think it could help if we determined our preferred tech sequence.

I'd put the milestones like that (order determined by importance and effort):
(numbers after brackets show additional research effort)

1. Replacable Parts (Rubber, double worker speed) 8'4
2. Industrialization (factories) 3'6
3. Scientific Method (ToE) 6'0
4. Sanitation (hospitals) 2'7
5. Flight (bombers) 22'2
6. Amphibous War (marines) 7'8
7. Motorized Transportation (tanks, Modern Times) 4'2

This however does not bear information how to split research efforts between partners...

And we still have to research MT - we should not break the MAAP II. :nono:
I should have assigned a lone scientist :suicide: :blush:
 
it kind of falls out of those, but I think combustion is pretty important.

Do we want to bother with ironclads at all, or just rely on frigates until destroyers?
 
One drawback of a short term agreement with FREE is it leaves the wonders up for grabs. We don't yet know why FREE jumped on electricity. It could be they want to build ToE or it could be they want replaceable parts. Trouble is, if they build ToE before we come to an agreement on MAAP III or the IA wonders then we risk not benefiting from ToE. I'm not worried about researching military tradition. We might be able to trade for it or get out of our MAAP II obligation to research it as part of our compensation for agreeing to let FREE have Hoover. There are many possibilities.

I think we should work on industrialization while FREE does electricity. After that I'd hope one of us does replaceable parts while the other does scientific method.
 
VOTE!


We really need to make a decision on who we're going to be allied with in the Industrial Age.
So please vote and make your position clear.

Options:
  1. Stick with FREE – let them have Hoover, try to get compensation for it in the MAAP III deal.
  2. Stick with FREE – try to get a deal on the side with Saber for Military Tradition.
  3. Switch Alliances to Saber – sign a short-term deal with FREE to keep them guessing.



Recap of my analysis:

Stick with FREE
  1. PRO: No strong Unique Unit to help them in warmongering, making wars more costly for them, and therefore easier for us to beat.
  2. PRO: ICS city strategy will hurt a space-race win attempt by them, making them easier for us to beat.
  3. PRO: They are the strongest researcher in the world, making them a strong ally to help us stay ahead of the other teams.
  4. CON: They are the strongest researcher in the world, making them a huge threat – as they could potentially try to leave us behind (or straight-out attack us) in the Modern Age.
  5. CON: Their dominant position (about 337 points ahead of us, 61 points ahead of 2nd place GONG) makes them a huge threat to making rapid military gains – then leveraging their new territory into an even larger lead. (Either by specialist farms, or by a communist government)
  6. CON: They are committed to getting Hoover Dam – and with an SGL to make that possible with ZERO shield investment – they will only be getting stronger than they are already. Getting Hoover without investing a single shield is a potentially game-altering change in FREE's favor. It's hard to see how we could balance this huge advantage with any MAAP III arrangement.
  7. CON: Kuningas has been taking a more active role in FREE lately – and he's one of the very few players I know that can scare Chamnix. Anyone that can scare Chamnix worries me greatly. :scared:



Switch to SABER
  1. PRO: Saber is much closer to us in power & score (They're currently in 4th place) and is therefore less of a threat to run away with the game.
  2. PRO: Saber is near desperate for an ally, and would likely agree to very favorable terms to lock us into alliance. This almost certainly would include a deal to give us Hoover Dam and prevent FREE from getting it…. IF we can manage to beat FREE to actually building Hoover, that is.
  3. PRO: Switching sides to Saber will help put the brakes on what's starting to look like a run-away victory for team FREE.
  4. CON: Saber might be able to use their powerful Siphai units (combined with a solid supporting ally) to go on a conquest spree and leverage that into an unstoppable advantage.
  5. CON: Dumping FREE in favor of Saber might provoke FREE to attack us? (I think this can be mitigated somewhat by trying to keep some kind of deals going with FREE… and by our threat of Hwacha with rails.)
  6. CON: Saber doesn’t control any 11 tile islands – leaving us out of the loop on any resources that are exclusive to those small islands. (note: this doesn't prevent us from getting coal)
  7. CON: Chamnix is one of the best Civ3 players I know – and you can be sure he'll maximize any advantage his team can get.


I'm not sure I really understood your list, Paul. :blush: care to try again using small words so I'll be sure to understand? ;)
 
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