True, when you have sufficient shipping capacity and control of the seas. The Allies had the ships (merchant and combat) to support their forces despite losses. Every ship lost was significant to the Germans, and when forces were operating out of Malta those losses were pretty big.
Obviously Malta would have to be captured if North Africa were to be invaded in force. One of the turning points in the war was actually Hitler's decision to invade Crete, which was fairly useless for everything except cutting supplies to the Soviets through the Black Sea, rather than the far more important Malta. If the Mediterranean were closed to the British the Italian Fleet would be more than enough to supply German troops in the Middle East.
And if they had waited a year, the Soviets may not have been caught off guard. then both fronts become unwinnable.
Both fronts were pretty unwinnable anyway, but logic at the time certainly dictated that the timing was wrong.
I understand what you are saying, and logically, at the time, I would agree with you. But hindsight shows that their best shot at success was Barbarossa in 1941, where they had a slim shot at victory, while anything else would require, as you said, a mirable.
I try to avoid hindsight as much as possible in situations like this, but we can never be sure how prepared Stalin would have been in another year. If Hitler had accepted his offer to join the Axis and still sneak-attacked him, he may well have been caught even more off-guard. It's definitely aa coin-toss though.
1500 ton tank with 800mm guns (Schwerer Gustav) and a crew of over 100. I believe frontal armour was to be 250mm or something like that.
That is a ridiculously over-sized tank. It would be relatively useless in combat.
I think that had a minor influence compared to (theoretically) having a ME 262 in 1941.
I don't think "in the long run" is what mattered. If the effects of the "sort run" could be a bit more decisive there wouldn't have been a "long run".
I know this plane had its testflights in 1941 and the battle of Britain was in 1940, but... Just imagine ME 262's in sufficient numbers (and with reliable engines) actively present during the battle of Britain and what consequences that could have had.
Those consequences being a few more British planes destroyed and a weaker German economy overall from rushing through the research and development on this weapon? Because the Battle of Britain was never in doubt; it would always be a British victory.
A few things I can think of that I'm not sure have been mentioned.(been a while since having read the start of this thread)
Fully mobilizing the German economy sooner. This probably wouldn't help much in the Eastern front where logistics and poor roads are a problem but more planes and tanks for the West could be useful.
Definitely an error, but it's doubtful it would have done more than prolonged the inevitable.
Perhaps not courting Turkey enough. Whether it would be at all possible for Turkey to join the war. If they did join on the side of the Axis in 1941 the war could go much differently. 50 or so thousand Turkish soldiers rampaging through the British Middle East would draw away allied forces from North Africa increasing Rommels chances of victory in Egypt and whatever the Turks can send against the Soviets in the Caucusus would ensure less Soviet forces elsewhere. Although I doubt Turkey would be successful in the region it could be useful to the overall war effort.
Turkey's entry into the war would have made a difference, but not that much of one. It simply wasn't strong enough to make a big enough impact, and Turkey joining the Axis would have guaranteed an immediate Russian response. Not to mention that becoming a German satellite would have been very much against Turkish national interest. Put simply, Turkey would never join forces with Germany short of an ultimatum, much like Yugoslavia, or a German victory in North Africa and the Middle East.
My 3, may or may not have been mentioned.
1. Deciding to split army group south and trying to capture both Stalingrad and the Caucasus.
2. Putting Goering in charge of the Luftwaffe.
3. Not putting enough emphasis on the North Africa until it was too late.
1. A definite error, but it would have been too little too late by that point anyway.
2. Why was that an error? Goering did a pretty good job of re-building an air force pretty much from scratch. There were better choices, such as Albert Speer, but Goering was among the best at the time.
3. That's a HUGE mistake, which I've been iterating for most of this thread.
